PICTURESQUE EXAGGERATIONS.
It has now been shown, first that there is nothing in the general
figures of our import and export trade to warrant the alarmist view
expressed in "Made in Germany," and secondly, that the country whose
rivalry is supposed to be ruining us is one of the best of all our
customers. What I propose to do in the present chapter is to examine
some of the detailed statements in Mr. Williams's book and to show that
in many cases the inferences he draws are so seriously exaggerated as to
amount to a positive misrepresentation of the facts. For the purposes of
this examination we cannot do better than begin with the chapter which
Mr. Williams devotes to chemicals. "The chemical trade," he tells us,
"is the barometer of a nation's prosperity.... The discomforting
significance of the appearance of chemicals in this Black List of mine
will, therefore, be at once apparent." More follows about a "Bottomless
pit for capital," and "Germany seizing the occasion while England has
let hers slide," and so on.
THE ALKALI TRADE.
Thus much for generalities with regard to the chemical trade; now for
details. Let us begin with alkalies, which Mr. Williams selects for
special comment. He says:--
"Here we are confronted with the damning fact that whereas fresh
uses and (owing to the growth of manufactures abroad) fresh
markets for alkali products are continually being found, the
export of the greatest alkali trader of the world was last year
of little more than half its value in the early seventies. Nor
do the latest years show any sign of recuperation. The decline
since 1891 has been continuous.... There is no question here of
an insidious advance. The matter is simply that our trade has
gone to the devil, while the Germans are piling up fortunes."
To the average reader this paragraph would certainly suggest that at
least half our trade in alkali had already disappeared, and that the
remainder would soon be gone to the devil or elsewhere. I have not
verified Mr. Williams's statement with regard to the early seventies,
but it is quite sufficient to point to the course of the trade during
the last fifteen years. Both quantities and values are given in the
following table:--
EXPORTS OF ALKALI FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM.
--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
|1881|'82|'83|'84|'85|'86|'87|'88|'89|'90|'91|'92|'93|'94|'95
--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
Quantities-- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
million Cwts. | 6·8|6·7|6·9|6·6|6·7|6·2|6·2|6·3|6·0|6·3|6·2|5·9|5·8|6·0|6·2
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Values-- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
million £'s | 2·1|2·1|2·1|2·1|2·0|1·8|1·7|1·6|1·6|2·1|2·3|2·1|1·9|1·6|1·6
--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
These figures show that our alkali trade has been on the whole
remarkably steady, except for the slight ups and downs in successive
years to which all trades are liable.
To show these ups and downs more graphically, I have drawn the following
diagram, covering the last ten years' exports:--
DIAGRAM OF THE QUANTITIES OF BRITISH ALKALI EXPORTED.
[Illustration]
If the reader will examine this diagram and the more complete figures
given above he will be able to see how completely misleading are Mr.
Williams's sensational statements about the British alkali trade. I do
not for a moment deny that the German alkali trade has made remarkable
progress; I only assert that there is no evidence that "our trade has
gone to the devil."
CHEMICAL MANURES.
We turn next to chemical manures. On this subject Mr. Williams
remarks:--
"Every farmer will testify to the exceeding value of these
stuffs. 'Tis a modern means of fertilising the soil, and there
can be no doubt that it has a very great future. Obviously then
it is in the highest degree important that England should keep a
firm hold of the trade. What, alas! is equally obvious is that
England's grip on it is relaxing, but that Germany is tightening
hers."
It may be true--probably is true--that the industry of Germany is
expanding in this as in almost every other branch of the chemical
trades. It is also true that the value of chemical manures sent by
Germany to this country--still only a quarter of what we send to
Germany--is increasing. What is not true is the statement that England's
grip on the trade is "obviously relaxing." The figures are given below.
They do not look much like a relaxed grip.
EXPORTS OF CHEMICAL MANURES FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM.
In Millions Sterling.
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
1881|1882|1883|1884|1885|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
1·8| 2·0| 2·2| 2·1| 1·7| 1·6| 1·6| 1·8| 2·1| 2·1| 2·1| 2·1| 2·3| 2·3| 1·9
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
The figures for the past ten years are illustrated in the following
diagram:--
[Illustration]
SOME SUPPOSITIONS ABOUT SALT.
Salt is the next subject to which Mr. Williams turns. What he has to say
about it is more picturesque than accurate:--
"The story is worth study. The Salt Union was formed in England
in 1889, and the manufacture of salt thereby converted into a
big monopoly.... The directors reckoned without their Germany.
They can make salt there, too. It is not so good as the Cheshire
product, but it is salt, and it is much cheaper than that sold
by the Salt Union. When that syndicate's price went up the
German manufacturers pushed into the world market, and that to a
purpose which is strikingly illustrated in the case of our great
Dependency. India needs much foreign salt, and the Indian ryot
needs it cheap: for the salt he uses has to bear the burden of a
tax. The natural result followed: German salt to a large extent
ousted English from the Indian market."
Most impressive! if only it were true. So far as the world market is
concerned, the figures below give no indications of the havoc alleged to
have been wrought by the machinations of the Salt Union.
EXPORTS OF BRITISH SALT.
---------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895
---------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
Quantities--thousand | | | | | | | | | |
tons | 805| 819| 899| 667| 726| 671| 654| 636| 769| 741
| | | | | | | | | |
Values--thousand £'s | 588| 525| 486| 539| 653| 596| 539| 505| 604| 546
---------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
So far as India is concerned, Mr. Williams is doubly wrong. In the first
place, German salt has not "to a large extent ousted English." During
the past five years--it was only in 1889 that the wicked Salt Union came
into being--Indian imports of salt have been as follows:--
INDIAN IMPORTS OF SALT.
Thousands of Tons.
------------------------------------------------------
Years ending March 31st. From U.K. From Germany.
------------------------------------------------------
1891 273 61
1892 222 103
1893 241 47
1894 269 48
1895 315 82
------------------------------------------------------
This does not look as if English salt were being ousted by German. In
the second place, it is not true that German salt is much cheaper than
Cheshire, at any rate so far as the Indian market is concerned. It will
be found by reference to the Indian Blue Books that the price of German
salt imported into India in 1894-5 works out to 17·6 rupees per ton, and
the price of English salt only to 17·0 rupees per ton. In other words,
German salt was of the two slightly the dearer. So much for the salt
bogey which Mr. Williams had conjured up.
CHEMICAL DYE STUFFS.
We next pass to chemical dye stuffs. It is undoubtedly true that in this
branch of manufacture Germany has gone ahead at a remarkable rate, and
it is also probable that some of our manufacturers have allowed
themselves to be passed in the race by neglecting the scientific methods
which Germans employ. But that is no reason why Mr. Williams should
exaggerate his case. In order to magnify the fall in our trade, if such
there be, he picks out the year of highest export (1890) and says, Lo!
since 1890 our export of dye stuffs has dropped from £530,000 to
£473,000. One cannot tell whether this is a real drop in trade, or
merely the consequence of a fall in price, but this we do know--that the
value of our exports fluctuates largely from year to year, and that 1895
was a good average year. The figures for ten years are given below:--
VALUES OF DYE STUFFS EXPORTED.
------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895
------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
Thousands of £'s | 483| 499| 469| 492| 531| 524| 443| 452| 415| 473
------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----
FANCY SOAPS AND FANCY ASSERTIONS.
The last point in Mr. Williams's chapter on the chemical trades with
which it is worth while to deal is what he says about soap:--
"In the old days, when brown Windsor was a luxury, Englishmen
washed with soap of English make; and those who could not afford
'scented' cleansed themselves with 'yellow' or 'mottled.' Thanks
(partly) to Continental chemistry, we have changed all that....
The progress of practical chemistry has evidently reached a
point at which the manufacture of agreeable toilet soaps at a
low figure is possible. But why should this manufacture be so
largely in foreign hands? They twit us with our debased fondness
for the tub, and they do but add injury to insult when they send
us soap for use therein. The Germans--a non-tubbing race--have
not yet invaded the English soap market so victoriously as is
their wont, though even here the Teuton hand may be discerned by
the expert in forged trade marks."
If this paragraph means anything at all, it means that even in the soap
industry our manufacturers are being beaten by the foreigner. To what
extent foreign soap is imported into the United Kingdom it is impossible
to ascertain, for no separate entry under that head is kept at the
Custom House. But from the German Green Books one may learn that in 1895
Germany sent to Great Britain soap valued at £35,700. The amount sent by
France may have been as much, and probably the United States also sent
us a little. The total export of German soap to all parts of the world
in 1895 was valued at £197,000. Now for the British side of the case! As
to the total production and consumption of soap in this country, no
figures are available, but everyone knows how enormous is the
consumption of soap produced by English firms whose names are household
words. In addition to their providing for the wants of probably
ninety-nine out of a hundred of their own countrymen, our soap
manufacturers do an enormous and rapidly growing business abroad.
Here are the figures:--
EXPORTS OF SOAP FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM.
--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
|1881|'82|'83|'84|'85|'86|'87|'88|'89|'90|'91|'92|'93|'94|'95
--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
Quantities-- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
thousd. cwts. | 354|409|392|476|402|427|453|500|493|497|524|541|605|577|728
Values-- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
thousd. £'s. | 398|458|450|548|472|447|452|482|503|534|571|586|644|621|757
--------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---
The following diagram illustrates the almost continuous increase in the
value of our soap exports during the last ten years:--
[Illustration]
Looking at the above figures, it will be seen that in the last six
years alone we have added to our exports a sum greater than the total
yet attained by Germany. Is it necessary to say more? What pessimistic
madness could have led Mr. Williams to "black-list" such a
splendidly-thriving and notoriously profitable industry as this, just
because he finds a few thousand hundredweight of foreign soap creeping
into the country?