CHAPTER II.

GERMANY: ONE OF OUR BEST CUSTOMERS.

In the previous chapter it was shown that the general figures of our

import and export trade gave no indication of the ruin of our commerce

either by Germans or by anybody else. In the present chapter it is

proposed to show that though Germany is among the keenest of our trade

competitors, she is also one of our best customers. For a sufficient

indication of the truth of this proposition we have only to turn to the

annual statement of the trade of the United Kingdom. It is true that the

figures there published are not entirely satisfactory, because much of

the trade of Germany is shipped from Dutch or Belgian ports, and

credited to Holland and Belgium respectively. But this is probably also

true, and to about the same extent, of British goods destined for

Germany, and travelling _viâ_ Belgium or Holland, so that in comparing

imports and exports this factor may be neglected. The same cause of

error will probably be also present to the same extent in successive

years, so that we can ignore it when comparing one year with another.

Purely for comparative purposes then the annexed table, and the diagram

illustrating it, are sufficiently accurate, although the actual figures

for any one year by itself have, for the reasons given, little positive

value.

OUR TOTAL TRADE WITH GERMAN PORTS.

In Millions Sterling.

----------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895

----------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

Imports from Germany |21·4|24·6|26·7|27·1|26·1|27·0|25·7|26·4|26·9|27·0

Exports to Germany |26·4|27·2|27·4|31·3|30·5|29·9|29·6|28·0|29·2|32·7

----------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

These figures may be illustrated diagrammatically as follows:--

[Illustration]

A VERY SATISFACTORY TRADE.

These figures furnish a striking answer to the alarmists who can see in

Germany nothing but a vigorous and not too scrupulous rival. In every

year during the last ten years she has apparently bought more from us

than she has sold to us. It is quite true that all the things she has

bought from us were not produced or manufactured by us. A portion of her

purchases consists of foreign or colonial goods sent to London, or

Liverpool, or Hull, and there purchased for re-sale in Germany. But in

the same way some of the goods we buy from Germany certainly had their

origin in other countries, and have only passed through Germany on their

way to us; so that the fairest way of making a comparison is to take the

whole trade in each case. Moreover, this _entrepôt_ trade of ours is not

in itself a thing to be sneezed at; it contributes a goodly fraction of

the wealth of the city of London. In order, however, to complete the

picture of our trade with Germany, the following table is appended,

distinguishing in each of the ten years under review the home produce

exported from the foreign and colonial goods re-exported. This table

shows that in purely British goods we are doing a very satisfactory

trade with Germany. Taking averages, we see that during the ten years

our export of our own manufactures and produce to German ports was at

the rate of £17,800,000 a year, against a total import from German ports

of £25,900,000, this figure including both German goods and other

countries' goods passing through Germany. If we recollect that on the

whole our imports from the outside world must be very much larger than

our exports, for the reasons detailed in the preceding chapter, it will

be seen that these two figures, even by themselves, are not

unsatisfactory.

ANALYSIS OF OUR TRADE WITH GERMAN PORTS.

In Millions Sterling.

----------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

|1886|1887|1888|1889|1890|1891|1892|1893|1894|1895

----------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

British Goods exported|15·7|15·7|15·8|18·5|19·3|18·8|17·6|17·7|17·8|20·6

to German ports | | | | | | | | | |

| | | | | | | | | |

Foreign and Colonial |10·6|11·5|11·6|12·8|11·2|11·1|12·1|10·3|11·4|12·2

Goods exported from | | | | | | | | | |

British ports to | | | | | | | | | |

German ports | | | | | | | | | |

----------------------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----

OUR PRINCIPAL CUSTOMERS.

Let us now go a step further and compare our trade with Germany and our

trade with other principal customers. The comparison is worked out in

the following table, which shows the total imports into the United

Kingdom from the respective countries, and the total exports from the

United Kingdom to the same countries:--

TRADE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM WITH THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES.

Ten Years' Average, in Millions Sterling, according to _British_

Returns.

----------------------------------+-----------+-----------

| Imports | Exports

| into U.K. | from U.K.

----------------------------------+-----------+-----------

From and to Germany | 25·9 | 29·2

" " France | 42·6 | 21·7

" " United States | 91·8 | 40·2

" " British India | 30·5 | 31·3

" " Australasia | 28·3 | 23·1

" " British North America | 12·2 | 8·4

----------------------------------+-----------+-----------

These figures are taken from the British Custom House returns, and are

subject to the objection to which allusion has already been made, that

the Custom House authorities have no means of ascertaining the real

origin of goods entering this country, nor the real destination of goods

leaving it. Thus, for example, everyone knows that there is a

considerable trade between Great Britain and Switzerland, yet

Switzerland has no place at all in the Custom House returns, because,

having no seaboard, all her goods must pass through foreign territory,

and each package is credited by our Customs House to the port--French,

or Belgian, or Dutch--through which the package passes to England. In

order, therefore, to provide some check on the above figures, I have

averaged in the same way the figures collected by the different foreign

countries in their Customs Houses. These foreign and colonial figures

have no more title to be considered absolutely accurate than ours, nor

do they cover quite the same ground. Their value lies in the rough

confirmation they give of the very rough conclusion which we are able to

draw from our own figures:--

TRADE OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM.

Ten Years' Average, in Millions Sterling, according to _Foreign

and Colonial_ returns.

-------------------------+-----------------+-------------------

| Exports to U.K. | Imports from U.K.

-------------------------+-----------------+-------------------

Germany | 29·1 | 26·6

France | 38·2 | 22·0

United States | 84·6 | 34·2

British India[1] | (Rx) 36·4 | (Rx) 60·4

Australasia[1] | 28·5 | 27·2

British North America[1] | 10·5 | 9·1

-------------------------+-----------------+-------------------

[Footnote 1: These figures include treasure as well as

merchandise.]

On the whole, these figures tally more closely with those derived from

British returns than might have been expected, and if we make allowance

for the fact that the Colonial figures include treasure, it will be seen

that both tables show that Germany is our best customer after the United

States and India.

THE ALARMIST'S ARTS.

In order to obscure this important fact, while alarming the British

public with the notion that English manufacturers are being ruined by

German competition, Mr. Williams picks out half a dozen or so items of

our imports from Germany, and then exclaims in horror at the amount of

"the moneys which _in one year_ have come out of John Bull's pocket for

the purchase of his German-made household goods." He prefaces his list

with the unfortunate remark that the figures are taken from the Custom

House returns, "where, at any rate, fancy and exaggeration have no

play." That is so; the fancy and exaggeration are supplied by Mr.

Williams. In 1895, he says, Germany sent us linen manufactures to the

value of £91,257. He omits, however, to mention that according to the

same authority--the Custom House returns--the value of the linen

manufactures which we sold to Germany was £273,795. Again, he mentions

that we bought from Germany cotton manufactures to the value of

£536,000, but he is silent on the fact that our sales to Germany

amounted to £1,305,000. He does not even hesitate to pick out such a

trumpery item as £11,309 for German embroidery and needlework, but he

forgets to tell his readers that the silk manufactures which in the same

year we sold to Germany were worth £92,000. In the same way, were it

worth doing, one could go through the whole of Mr. Williams's list,

pitting one article against another. It would be labour wasted. The

simple fact is that, according to the authority upon which Mr. Williams

relies for all the figures just quoted, our total exports to Germany

exceed our total imports from Germany, and no trickery with particular

items can destroy, though it may obscure, that broad fact.

A SELF-DESTRUCTIVE POLICY.

But, for the reasons already explained, in replying to Mr. Williams I do

not rely wholly on British figures. It is from the double testimony of

British and foreign figures that I deduce the fact that of all our

customers Germany is one of the best. The practical moral of this fact

is sufficiently obvious. In private business a tradesman does not go out

of his way to offend a good customer, even though that customer is also

a keen trade competitor. He bestirs himself instead to keep ahead, if

possible, of his rival without doing anything to destroy the mutually

profitable trade relationship between them. Such palpable considerations

of expediency are ignored by our latter-day Protectionists, among whom

Mr. Williams deservedly ranks as a leading prophet. Their ambition is to

induce the Colonies to discriminate in their tariffs between goods from

the Mother Country and goods from foreign countries, admitting the

former on favourable terms and penalising the latter. It is avowedly

against German competition that this policy is directed, and we are

light-heartedly told to risk our trade with one of our best customers on

the chance of encouraging trade with Colonies which so far have shown

much more eagerness to sell their goods to us than to buy ours. Even

supposing that this policy succeeded in destroying the whole of the

German export trade to our Colonies and Possessions, the possible gain

to us would be very small.

Here are the figures of the trade of our three principal Colonies with

the United Kingdom and with Germany, derived in each case from the

Colonial returns:--

TRADE OF THE FOLLOWING BRITISH POSSESSIONS WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM AND

WITH GERMANY.

Ten Years' Average, in Millions Sterling or Millions Rx.

-----------------+---------------------------+----------------------------

| IMPORTS. | EXPORTS.

+---------------+-----------+---------------+------------

| From Germany. | From U.K. | To Germany. | To U.K.

-----------------+---------------------------+----------------------------

India (Rx) | ·9 | 58·4 | 3·8 | 36·4

Australasia | ·9 | 27·4 | ·7 | 28·2

Brit. N. America | ·8 | 9·1 | ·1 | 10·1

-----------------+---------------+-----------+---------------+------------

Thus these great groups of Colonies and Dependencies together buy rather

less than £3,000,000 worth of German goods against more than £60,000,000

worth of British goods. Yet in order to crush this fractional

competition of Germany in neutral markets, in order to scrape up these

crumbs that have fallen from our table, we are invited to risk the loss

of a direct trade with Germany worth nearly ten times as much as all the

crumbs heaped up together.

Are we ruined by the Germans? · 第 2 / 7 章