These conditions, although in appearance fair as between the parties,
would have been grossly unfair and one-sided in their operation.
Owing to the general position of the European powers and the treaty
engagements by which they were bound, the result of Articles 4 and 5
would have been that, while Germany in the case of a European conflict
would have remained free to support her friends, this country would
have been forbidden to raise a finger in defense of hers.
Germany could arrange without difficulty that the formal inception of
hostilities should rest with Austria. If Austria and Russia were at
war, Germany would support Austria, as is evident from what occurred
at the end of July, 1914; while as soon as Russia was attacked by
two powers France was bound to come to her assistance. In other
words, the pledge of neutrality offered by Germany would have been
absolutely valueless, because she could always plead the necessity
of fulfilling her existing obligations under the Triple Alliance as
an excuse for departing from neutrality. On the other hand, no such
departure, however serious the provocation, would have been possible
for this country, which was bound by no alliances with the exception
of those with Japan and Portugal, while the making of fresh alliances
was prohibited by Article 5. In a word, as appeared still more evident
later, there was to be a guarantee of absolute neutrality on one side
but not on the other.
It was impossible for us to enter into a contract so obviously
inequitable, and the formula was accordingly rejected by Sir Edward
Grey.
Count Metternich upon this pressed for counter proposals, which he
stated would be without prejudice and not binding unless we were
satisfied that our wishes were met on the naval question. On this
understanding Sir Edward Grey on the 14th of March, 1912, gave Count
Metternich the following draft formula, which had been approved by the
Cabinet:
England will make no unprovoked attack upon Germany, and pursue no
aggressive policy toward her.
Aggression upon Germany is not the subject, and forms no part of
any treaty, understanding, or combination to which England is now
a party, nor will she become a party to anything that has such an
object.
Count Metternich thought this formula inadequate, and suggested two
alternative additional clauses:
England will therefore observe at least a benevolent neutrality
should war be forced upon Germany; or
England will therefore, as a matter of course, remain neutral if a
war is forced upon Germany.
This, he added, would not be binding unless our wishes were met with
regard to the naval program.