Sir Edward Grey considered that the British proposals were sufficient.
He explained that, if Germany desired to crush France, England might
not be able to sit still, though, if France were aggressive or attacked
Germany, no support would be given by his Majesty's Government or
approved by England. It is obvious that the real object of the German
proposal was to obtain the neutrality of England in all eventualities,
since, should a war break out, Germany would certainly contend that it
had been forced upon her, and would claim that England should remain
neutral. An admirable example of this is the present war, in which,
in spite of the facts, Germany contends that war has been forced upon
her. Even the third member of the Triple Alliance, who had sources of
information not open to us, did not share this view, but regarded it as
an aggressive war.
Sir Edward Grey eventually proposed the following formula:
The two powers being mutually desirous of securing peace and
friendship between them, England declares that she will neither
make nor join in any unprovoked attack upon Germany. Aggression
upon Germany is not the subject, and forms no part of, any treaty,
understanding, or combination to which England is now a party, nor
will she become a party to anything that has such an object.
Sir Edward Grey when he handed this formula to Count Metternich said
that the use of the word "neutrality" would convey the impression that
more was meant than was warranted by the text; he suggested that the
substance of what was required would be obtained and more accurately
expressed by the words "will neither make nor join in any unprovoked
attack."
Count Metternich thereupon received instructions to make it quite
clear that the Chancellor could recommend the Emperor to give up the
essential parts of the Novelle (the bill then pending for the increase
of the German Navy) only if we could conclude an agreement guaranteeing
neutrality of a far-reaching character and leaving no doubt as to any
interpretation. He admitted that the Chancellor's wish amounted to
a guarantee of absolute neutrality, failing which the Novelle must
proceed.
Count Metternich stated that there was no chance of the withdrawal
of the Novelle, but said that it might be modified; it would be
disappointing to the Chancellor if we did not go beyond the formula we
had suggested.
Sir Edward Grey said that he could understand that there would be
disappointment if his Majesty's Government were to state that the
carrying out of the Novelle would put an end to the negotiations and
form an insurmountable obstacle to better relations. His Majesty's
Government did not say this, and it hoped that the formula which it
had suggested might be considered in connection with the discussion
of territorial arrangements, even if it did not prove effective in
preventing the increase of naval expenditure.
Sir Edward Grey added that if some arrangement could be made between
the two Governments it would have a favorable though indirect effect
upon naval expenditure as time went on; it would have, moreover, a
favorable and direct effect upon public opinion in both countries.
A few days afterward Count Metternich communicated to Sir Edward Grey
the substance of a letter from the Chancellor, in which the latter said
that, as the formula suggested by his Majesty's Government was from
the German point of view insufficient, and as his Majesty's Government
could not agree to the larger formula for which he had asked, the
Novelle must proceed on the lines on which it had been presented to the
Federal Council. The negotiations then came to an end, and with them
the hope of a mutual reduction in the expenditure on armaments of the
two countries.
* * * * *