fertility. In nearly all the Australian colonies the highest birth-rate
was reached some twenty or thirty years ago. Since then there has been a
more or less steady fall, accompanied by a marked decrease in the number
of marriages, and a tendency to postpone the age of marriage. One
colony, Western Australia, has a birth-rate which sometimes fluctuates
above that of England; but it is the youngest of the colonies, and, at
present, that with the smallest population, largely composed of recent
immigrants. We may be quite sure that its comparatively high birth-rate
is merely a temporary phenomenon. A very notable fact about the
Australian birth-rate is the extreme rapidity with which the fall has
taken place; thus Queensland, in 1890, had a birth-rate of 37, but by
1899 the rate had steadily fallen to 27, and the Victorian rate during
the same period fell from 33 to 26 per thousand. In New South Wales, the
state of things has been carefully studied by Mr. Coghlan, formerly
Government statistician of New South Wales, who comes to the conclusion
that the proportion of fertile marriages is declining, and that (as in
the United States) it is the recent European immigrants only who show a
comparatively high birth-rate. Until 1880, Coghlan states, the
Australasian birth-rate was about 38 per thousand, and the average
number of children to the family about 5.4. In 1901 the birth-rate had
already fallen to 27.6 and the size of the family to 3.6 children.[100] It
should be added that in all the Australasian colonies the birth-rate
reached its lowest point some years ago, and may now be regarded as in a
state of normal equipoise with a slight tendency to rise. The case of
New Zealand is specially interesting. New Zealand once had the highest
birth-rate of all the Australasian colonies; it is without doubt the
most advanced of all in social and legislative matters; a variety of
social reforms, which other countries are struggling for, are, in New
Zealand, firmly established. Its prosperity is shown by the fact that it
has the lowest death-rate of any country in the world, only 10.2 per
thousand, as against 24 in Austria and 22 in France; it cannot even be
said that the marriage-rate is very low, for it is scarcely lower than
that of Austria, where the birth-rate is high. Yet the birth-rate in New
Zealand fell as the social prosperity of the country rose, reaching its
lowest point in 1899.
We thus find that from the three great Anglo-Saxon centres of the
world--north, west, and south--the same story comes. We need not
consider the case of South Africa, for it is well recognized that there
the English constitute a comparatively infertile fringe, mostly confined
to the towns, while the earlier Dutch element is far more prolific and
firmly rooted in the soil. The position of the Dutch there is much the
same as that of the French in Canada.
Thus we find that among highly civilized races generally, and not least
among the English-speaking peoples who were once regarded as peculiarly
prolific, a great diminution of reproductive activity has taken place
during the past forty years, and is in some countries still taking
place. But before we proceed to consider its significance it may be well
to look a little more closely at our facts.
We have seen that the "crude" birth-rate is not an altogether reliable
index of the reproductive energy of a nation. Various circumstances may
cause an excess or a defect of persons of reproductive age in a
community, and unless we allow for these variations, we cannot estimate
whether that community is exercising its reproductive powers in a fairly
normal manner. But there is another and still more important
consideration always to be borne in mind before we can attach any
far-reaching significance even to the corrected birth-rate. We have,
that is, to bear in mind that a high or a low birth-rate has no meaning,
so far as the growth of a nation is concerned, unless it is considered
in relation to the death-rate. The natural increase of a nation is not
the result of its birth-rate, but of its birth-rate minus its
death-rate. A low birth-rate with a low death-rate (as in Australasia)
produces a far greater natural increase than a low birth-rate with a
rather high death-rate (as in France), and may even produce as great an
increase as a very high birth-rate with a very high death-rate (as in
Russia). Many worthy people might have been spared the utterance of
foolish and mischievous jeremiads, if, instead of being content with a
hasty glance at the crude birth-rate, they had paused to consider this
fairly obvious fact.
There is an intimate connection between a high birth-rate and a high
death-rate, between a low birth-rate and a low death-rate. It may not,
indeed, be an absolutely necessary connection, and is not the outcome of
any mysterious "law." But it usually exists, and the reasons are fairly
obvious. We have already encountered the statement from an official
Canadian source that the large infantile mortality of French Canadian
families is due to parental carelessness, consequent, no doubt, not only
on the dimly felt consciousness that children are cheap, but much more
on inability to cope with the manifold cares involved by a large family.
Among the English working class every doctor knows the thinly veiled
indifference or even repulsion with which women view the seemingly
endless stream of babies they give birth to. Among the Berlin working
class, also, Hamburger's important investigation has indicated how
serious a cause of infantile mortality this may be. By taking 374
working-class women, who had been married twenty years and conceived
3183 times, he found that the net result in surviving children was
relatively more than twice as great among the women who had only had one
child when compared to the women who had had fifteen children. The women
with only one child brought 76.47 per cent of these children to
maturity; the women who had produced fifteen children could only bring
30.66 of them to maturity; the intermediate groups showed a gradual fall
to this low level, the only exception being that the mothers of three
children were somewhat more successful than the mothers of two children.
Among well-to-do mothers Hamburger found no such marked contrast
between the net product of large families as compared to small
families.[101]
It we look at the matter from a wider standpoint we can have no
difficulty in realizing that a community which is reproducing itself
rapidly must always be in an unstable state of disorganization highly
unfavourable to the welfare of its members, and especially of the
new-comers; a community which is reproducing itself slowly is in a
stable and organized condition which permits it to undertake adequately
the guardianship of its new members. The high infantile mortality of the
community with a high birth-rate merely means that that community is
unconsciously making a violent and murderous effort to attain to the
more stable and organized level of the country with a low birth-rate.
The English Registrar-General in 1907 estimated the natural increase by
excess of births over deaths as exceptionally high (higher than that of
England) in several Australian Colonies, in the Balkan States, in
Russia, the Netherlands, the German Empire, Denmark, and Norway, though
in the majority of these lands the birth-rate is very low. On the other
hand, the natural increase by excess of births over deaths is below the
English rate in Austria, in Hungary, in Japan, in Italy, in Sweden,
Switzerland, Spain, Belgium, and Ontario, though in the majority of
these lands the birth-rate is high, and in some very high.[102] In most
cases it is the high death-rate in infancy and childhood which exercises
the counterbalancing influence against a high birth-rate; the death-rate
in adult life may be quite moderate. And with few exceptions we find
that a high infantile mortality accompanies a high birth-rate, while a
low infantile mortality accompanies a low birth-rate. It is evident,
however, that even an extremely high infantile mortality is no
impediment to a large natural increase provided the birth-rate is
extremely high to a more than corresponding extent. But a natural
increase thus achieved seems to be accompanied by far more disastrous
social conditions than when an equally large increase is achieved by a
low infantile death-rate working in association with a low birth-rate.
Thus in Norway on one side of the world and in Australasia on the
opposite side we see a large natural increase effected not by a profuse
expenditure of mostly wasted births but by an economy in deaths, and the
increase thus effected is accompanied by highly favourable social
conditions, and great national vigour. Norway appears to have the lowest
infantile death-rate in Europe.[103]
Rubin has suggested that the fairest measure of a country's well-being,
as regards its actual vitality--without direct regard, of course, to the
country's economic prosperity--is the square of the death-rate divided
by the birth-rate.[104] Sir J.A. Baines, who accepts this test, states
that Argentina with its high birth-rate and low death-rate stands even
above Norway, and Australia still higher, while the climax for the world
is attained by New Zealand, which has attained "the nearest approach to
immortality yet on record."[105] The order of descending well-being in
Europe is thus represented (at the year 1900) by Norway, Sweden,
Denmark, Holland, England, Scotland, Finland, Belgium, Switzerland,
Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Austria, France, and Spain.
On the other hand, in all the countries, probably without exception, in
which a large natural increase is effected by the efforts of an immense
birth-rate to overcome an enormous death-rate the end is only effected
with much friction and misery, and the process is accompanied by a
general retardation of civilization.
"The greater the number of children," as Hamburger puts it, "the greater
the cost of each survivor to the family and to the State."
Russia presents not only the most typical but the most stupendous and
appalling example of this process. Thirty years ago the mortality of
infants under one year was three times that of Norway, nearly double
that of England. More recently (1896-1900) the infantile mortality in
Russia has fallen from 313 to 261, but as that of the other countries
has also fallen it still preserves nearly the same relative position,
remaining the highest in Europe, while if we compare it with countries
outside Europe we find it is considerably more than four times greater
than that of South Australia. In one town in the government of Perm,
some years ago if not still, the mortality of infants under one year
regularly reached 45 per cent, and the deaths of children under five
years constituted half the total mortality. This is abnormally high even
for Russia, but for all Russia it was found that of the boys born in a
single year during the second half of the last century only 50 per cent
reached their twenty-first year, and even of these only 37.6 per cent
were fit for military service. It is estimated that there die in Russia
15 per thousand more individuals than among the same number in England;
this excess mortality represents a loss of 1,650,000 lives to the State
every year.[106]
Thus Russia has the highest birth-rate and at the same time the highest
death-rate. The large countries which, after Russia, have the highest
infantile mortality are Austria, Hungary, Prussia, Spain, Italy, and
Japan; all these, as we should expect, have a somewhat high birth-rate.
The case of Japan is interesting as that of a vigorous young Eastern
nation, which has assimilated Western ways and is encountering the evils
which come of those ways. Japan is certainly worthy of all our
admiration for the skill and vigour with which it has affirmed its young
nationality along Western lines. But when the vital statistics of Japan
are vaguely referred to either as a model for our imitation or as a
threatening peril to us, we may do well to look into the matter a little
more closely. The infantile mortality of Japan (1908) is 157, a very
high figure, 50 per cent higher than that of England, much more than
double that of New Zealand, or South Australia. Moreover, it has rapidly
risen during the last ten years. The birth-rate of Japan in 1901-2 was
high (36), though it has since fallen to the level of ten years ago. But
the death-rate has risen concomitantly (to over 24 per 1000), and has
continued to rise notwithstanding the slight decline in the birth-rate.
We see here a tendency to the sinister combination of a falling
birth-rate with a rising death-rate.[107] It is obvious that such a
tendency, if continued, will furnish a serious problem to Japanese
social reformers, and at the same time make it impossible for Western
alarmists to regard the rise of Japan as a menace to the world.
It is behind China that these alarmists, when driven from every other
position, finally entrench themselves. "The ultimate future of these
islands may be to the Chinese," incautiously exclaims Mr. Sidney Webb,
who on many subjects, unconnected with China, speaks with authority. The
knowledge of the vital statistics of China possessed by our alarmists is
vague to the most extreme degree, but as the knowledge of all of us is
scarcely less vague, they assume that their position is fairly safe.
That, however, is an altogether questionable assumption. It seems to be
quite true--though in the absence of exact statistics it may not be
certain--that the birth-rate in China is very high. But it is quite
certain that the infantile death-rate is extremely high. "Out of ten
children born among us, three, normally the weakest three, will fail to
grow up: out of ten children born in China these weakest three will die,
and probably five more besides," writes Professor Ross, who is
intimately acquainted with Chinese conditions, and has closely
questioned thirty-three physicians practising in various parts of
China.[108] Matignon, a French physician familiar with China, states that
it is the custom for a woman to suckle her child for at least three
years; should pregnancy occur during this period, it is usual, and quite
legal, to procure abortion. Infants brought up by hand are fed on
rice-flour and water, and consequently they nearly all die.[109]
Putting aside altogether the question of infanticide, such a state of
things is far from incredible when we remember the extremely insanitary
state of China, the superstitions that flourish unchecked, and the
famines, floods, and pestilences that devastate the country. It would
appear probable that when vital statistics are introduced into China
they will reveal a condition of things very similar to that we find in
Russia, but in a more marked degree. No doubt it is a state of things
which will be remedied. It is a not unreasonable assumption, supported
by many indications, that China will follow Japan in the adoption of
Western methods of civilization.[110] These methods, as we know, involve
in the end a low birth-rate with a general tendency to a lower
death-rate. Neither in the near nor in the remote future, under present
conditions or under probable future conditions, is there any reason for
imagining that the Chinese are likely to replace the Europeans in
Europe.[111]
This preliminary survey of the ground may enable us to realize that not
only must we be cautious in attaching importance to the crude birth-rate
until it is corrected, but that even as usually corrected the birth-rate
can give us no clue at all to natural increase because there is a marked
tendency for the birth-rate and the infantile death-rate to rise or sink
together. Moreover, it is evident that we have also to realize that from
the point of view of society and civilization there is a vast difference
between the natural increase which is achieved by the effort of an
enormously high birth-rate to overcome an almost correspondingly high
death-rate and the natural increase which is attained by the dominance
of a low birth-rate over a still lower death-rate.
Having thus cleared the ground, we may proceed to attempt the
interpretation of the declining birth-rate which marks civilization, and
to discuss its significance.
II
It must be admitted that it is not usual to consider the question of the
declining birth-rate from a broad or scientific standpoint. As we have
seen, no attempt is usually made to correct the crude birth-rate; still
more rarely is it pointed out that we cannot consider the significance
of a falling birth-rate apart from the question of the death-rate, and
that the net increase or decrease in a nation can only be judged by
taking both these factors into account. It is scarcely necessary to add,
in view of so superficial a way of looking at the problem, that we
hardly ever find any attempt to deal with the more fundamental question
of the meaning of a low birth-rate, and the problematical character of
the advantages of rapid multiplication. The whole question is usually
left to the ignorant preachers of the gospel of brute force, would-be
patriots who desire their own country to increase at the cost of all
other countries, not merely in ignorance of the fact that the crude
birth-rate is not the index of increase, but reckless of the effect
their desire, if fulfilled, would have upon all the higher and finer
ends of living.
When the question is thus narrowly and ignorantly considered, it is
usual to account for the decreased birth-rate, the smaller average
families, and the tendency to postpone the age of marriage, as due
mainly to a love of luxury and vice, combined with a newly acquired
acquaintance with Neo-Malthusian methods,[112] which must be combated, and
may successfully be combated, by inculcating, as a moral and patriotic
duty, the necessity of marrying early and procreating large families.[113]
In France, the campaign against the religious Orders in their
educational capacity, while doubtless largely directed against
educational inefficiency, was also supported by the feeling that such
education is not on the side of family life; and Arsène Dumont, one of
the most vigorous champions of a strenuously active policy for
increasing the birth-rate, openly protested against allowing any place
as teachers to priests, monks, and nuns, whose direct and indirect
influence must degrade the conception of sex and its duties while
exalting the place of celibacy. In the United States, also, Engelmann,
who, as a gynæcologist, was able to see this process from behind the
scenes, urged his fellow-countrymen "to stay the dangerous and criminal
practices which are the main determining factors of decreasing
fecundity, and which deprive women of health, the family of its highest
blessings, and the nation of its staunchest support."[114]
We must, however, look at these phenomena a little more broadly, and
bring them into relation with other series of phenomena. It is almost
beyond dispute that a voluntary restriction of the number of offspring
by Neo-Malthusian practices is at least one of the chief methods by
which the birth-rate has been lowered. It may not indeed be--and
probably, as we shall see, is not--the only method. It has even been
denied that the prevalence of Neo-Malthusian practices counts at all.[115]
Thus while Coghlan, the Government Statistician of New South Wales,
concludes that the decline in the birth-rate in the Australian
Commonwealth was due to "the art of applying artificial checks to
conception," McLean, the Government Statistician of Victoria, concludes
that it was "due mainly to natural causes." [116] He points out that when
the birth-rate in Australia, half a century ago, was nearly 43 per 1000,
the population consisted chiefly of men and women at the reproductive
period of life, and that since then the proportion of persons at these
ages has declined, leading necessarily to a decline in the crude
birth-rate. If we compare the birth-rate of communities among women of
the same age-periods, McLean argues, we may obtain results quite
different from the crude birth-rate. Thus the crude birth-rate of
Buda-Pesth is much higher than that of New South Wales, but if we
ascertain the birth-rate of married women at different age-periods (15
to 20, 20 to 25, etc.) the New South Wales birth-rate is higher for
every age-period than that of Buda-Pesth. McLean considers that in young
communities with many vigorous immigrants the population is normally
more prolific than in older and more settled communities, and that
hardships and financial depression still more depress the birth-rate. He
further emphasizes the important relationship, which we must never lose
sight of in this connection, between a high birth-rate and a high
death-rate, especially a high infantile death-rate, and he believes,
indeed, that "the solution of the problem of the general decline in the
birth-rate throughout all civilized communities lies in the preservation
of human life." The mechanism of the connection would be, he maintains,
that prolonged suckling in the case of living children increases the
intervals between childbearing. As we have seen, there is a tendency,
though not a rigid and invariable necessity,[117] for a high birth-rate to
be associated with a high infantile death-rate, and a low birth-rate
with a low infantile death-rate. Thus in Victoria, we have the striking
fact that while the birth-rate has declined 24 per cent the infantile
death-rate has declined approximately to the still greater extent of 27
per cent.
No doubt the chief cause of the reduction of the birth-rate has been its
voluntary restriction by preventive methods due to the growth of
intelligence, knowledge, and foresight. In all the countries where a
marked decline in the birth-rate has occurred there is good reason to
believe that Neo-Malthusian methods are generally known and practised.
So far as England is concerned this is certainly the case. A few years
ago Mr. Sidney Webb made inquiries among middle-class people in all
parts of the country, and found that in 316 marriages 242 were thus
limited and only 74 unlimited, while for the ten years 1890-9 out of 120
marriages 107 were limited and only 13 unlimited, but as five of these
13 were childless there were only 8 unlimited fertile marriages out of
120. As to the causes assigned for limiting the number of children, in
73 out of 128 cases in which particulars were given under this head the
poverty of the parents in relation to their standard of comfort was a
factor; sexual ill-health--that is, generally, the disturbing effect of
child-bearing--in 24; and other forms of ill-health of the parents in 38
cases; in 24 cases the disinclination of the wife was a factor, and the
death of a parent had in 8 cases terminated the marriage.[118] In the
skilled artisan class there is also good reason to believe that the
voluntary limitation of families is constantly becoming more usual, and
the statistics of benefit societies show a marked decline in the
fertility of superior working-class people during recent years; thus it
is stated by Sidney Webb that the Hearts of Oak Friendly Society paid
benefits on child-birth to 2472 per 10,000 members in 1880; by 1904 the
proportion had fallen to 1165 per 10,000, a much greater fall than
occurred in England generally.
The voluntary adoption of preventive precautions may not be, however,
the only method by which the birth-rate has declined; we may have also
to recognize a concomitant physiological sterility, induced by delayed
marriage and its various consequences; we have also to recognize
pathological sterility due to the impaired vitality and greater
liability to venereal disease of an increasingly urban life; and we may
have to recognize that stocks differ from one another in fertility.