Lord John Russell and Lord Stanley--Lord Palmerston's
Leadership--Dissensions in the Liberal Party--The Queen and her
Ministers--Lord Stanley at the India Office--The Queen's Letter to
the Prince of Wales--Reform Speeches and Projects--Lord Palmerston's
Confidence--Prosecution of Count Montalembert in France--Lord
Clarendon's Visit to Compiègne--The Emperor's Designs on Italy--The
Emperor and the pope--Approach of War--Lord Palmerston's prudent
Language--Lord Palmerston's Italian Sympathies--The Electric
Telegraph--Opposition in France to the War--The Emperor's
Prevarication--Opening of Parliament--Debates on Foreign Affairs--Lord
Cowley's Mission to Vienna--General Opposition to the War--A
Reform Bill--Mr. Walpole and Mr. Henley resign--Duplicity of the
Emperor--Mr. Disraeli's Reform Bill--The Emperor denies his Warlike
Preparations--The Whigs oppose the Reform Bill--Anxiety to defeat the
Government--Lord Cowley returns from Vienna--War impending--Dishonest
Conduct of both Parties--Lord Cowley's Account of Cavour's Policy--His
Mission to Vienna--A Congress proposed--Indifference to Reform--Debates
on the Reform Bill--Defeat of the Reform Bill--An Emissary from Cavour.
[Sidenote: LORD JOHN RUSSELL AND LORD STANLEY.]
_Hinchinbrook, September 5th._--At The Grove last week, and on Friday
to Osborne for a Council. At the Grove I met Charles Villiers and the
Duke of Bedford, and had much talk with both of them about affairs
in general, particularly with the Duke about Lord John. He is busily
employed in concocting a Reform Bill, which he had probably better
leave alone. He seems to have shown his project to several people,
and recently to Aberdeen, who wrote him word that he must take care
not to make it too mild, so much so as to be inconsistent with what
he has before proposed. It seems it is very mild, for it embraces no
Schedule A, no disqualification, though a good deal of addition to the
constituency. Lord John has recently struck up a great intimacy with
Lord Stanley, and has had him repeatedly down to Pembroke Lodge. They
take very kindly to each other, and Lord John is evidently anxious to
cultivate him, for he asked the Duke to invite Stanley to go to Woburn,
where Lord John and all his family are gone to stay. He has been
talking a great deal to Stanley on past politics, but not on present,
which would have been rather awkward in their relative positions, but
he has told Stanley a great deal about the political affairs in which
he has been engaged, especially with respect to the great Reform Bill,
its history and incidents, which details no doubt were very interesting
and useful to him, and I am not surprised at Stanley's being much
pleased with Lord John's society and conversation, for Lord John is
very agreeable and full of that sort of political information in which
Stanley takes the greatest delight and interest. Although Lord John
has abstained from making any attempt to establish political relations
between them, it is highly probable that he should look forward to the
possibility of some such relations being hereafter established, for
in the present state of parties a fresh organisation and combination
is almost inevitable, and he may very naturally look forward to a
combination into which they may both enter, and with this view he may
be very glad to cultivate a personal and social intimacy, and the Duke
thinks he has some such view in his mind.
The Duke told me that he was at Lord Broughton's the other day, when
Broughton said he had been applied to by some of Palmerston's former
followers to make a representation to Palmerston of the present
state of affairs and of the Liberal party, and to suggest to him the
expediency of his abdication of the lead of it, and the impossibility
of that party regaining its ascendency so long as he insisted on
continuing its chief and retaining his pretensions of returning to
office. To this request he sent a refusal. He said he entirely agreed
with the people making it, but that it would have no effect whatever
except that of making a personal quarrel between himself and the
Palmerstons, with whom he had always been on very good terms. I did not
learn the names of these Whig malcontents. Charles Villiers takes a
similar view, but does not think that anything would induce Palmerston
to retire, or that his former colleagues and immediate adherents
would transfer their support to any one else as long as he continues
to claim it from them. He thinks, moreover, and he has very good
means of judging, that his position and that of John Russell and the
impossibility of their reunion will effectually paralyse the Liberal
party and secure the possession of office to the present Government,
and that there is on the whole rather a preference for the continuation
of the present state of things than any desire for a change which would
bring the Whigs back again. He had recently been with George Lewis, and
found him at length rather disposed to come into my view of the matter
of their resignation, and to regret it. It is entirely the opinion
of Charles Villiers himself, and he said there would have been no
difficulty in obtaining from the House of Commons a vote of confidence,
for there was no wish to turn them out, and having administered the
rebuke which the Government so well merited, the majority would have
seized with alacrity an occasion to make it up with them, and to show
that they had no desire to quarrel with them outright.
The Opposition now found all their hopes on the dissensions which
they expect to arise in the Tory Government and camp, which is a
very uncertain prospect, and as to which they are very likely to
be disappointed. The day I went to Osborne I had some conversation
with Disraeli, who gave me to understand that he was well aware the
Opposition relied on this contingency, but that it was not likely to
happen. He was aware of Lord Stanley's _liaison_ with Lord John, and
it was evident that the former had made no secret of it, and had told
Disraeli that there was (at present) nothing political in it. Lord John
had not said a word about his Reform Bill to Stanley, and Disraeli knew
that he had not. All this looks like union and confidence between them.
[Sidenote: THE QUEEN AND THE MINISTRY.]
As far as outward appearances go, the Queen is on very good terms with
them, for she gave audiences to several of them, and long ones. Her
conduct at the time of the breakup was certainly curious and justifies
them in saying that it was by her express desire that Derby undertook
the formation of the Government. If Palmerston and his Cabinet were
actuated by the motives and expectations which I ascribe to them,
Her Majesty certainly did not play into their hands in that game.
When Derby set before her all the difficulties of his situation, and
entreated her again to reflect upon it, a word from her would have
induced him (without having anything to complain of) to throw it back
into Palmerston's hands. But the word she did speak was decisive as to
his going on, and there is no reason to believe that she was playing
a deep game and calculating on his failure. Nor do I believe that she
would herself have liked to see Palmerston made all powerful. She can
hardly have forgotten how inclined he has always been to abuse his
power, and how much she has suffered from his exercise of it, even
when he was to a certain degree under control, and although she seemed
to be quite reconciled to him, and to be anxious for the stability of
his Government, it is difficult to know what her real feelings (or
rather those of the Prince) were, and it is more than probable that her
anxiety for the success of Palmerston's Government was more on account
of the members of it whom she personally likes, and whom she was very
reluctant to lose, than out of partiality for the Premier himself. To
Clarendon she is really attached, and Granville she likes very much;
most of the rest she regarded with indifference.
_London, November 4th._--Two months have elapsed during which I have
felt no inclination to note down anything in this book, but now that
the Newmarket meetings are at an end, and I must needs think of
other things, I shall jot down the very few things that have come
across me in the interval. When I was at Hillingdon a few weeks ago,
I was surprised to hear from Charles Mills a glowing panegyric on
Lord Stanley, who has gained golden opinions and great popularity
at the India House.[1] I was prepared to hear of his ability, his
indefatigable industry, and his businesslike qualities; but I was
surprised to hear so much of his courtesy, affability, patience, and
candour, that he is neither dictatorial nor conceited, always ready to
listen to other people's opinions and advice, and never fancying that
he knows better than anybody else. I afterwards told Jonathan Peel what
I had heard, and he confirmed the truth of this report, and said he
was the same in the Cabinet; but he made me comprehend his popularity
with the Council by telling me that he espoused all their views and
interests, and co-operated with them in endeavouring to retain certain
powers which belonged to the extinct Court of Directors, but which
ought, as a consequence of the change, to pass into other hands,
particularly military appointments and matters of military control.
This received confirmation not long ago from the Duke of Cambridge,
whom I met at Cheveley, and who gave me an account of some matter in
which he had received and executed certain orders from the Secretary of
War, and soon after received a very sharp letter from Stanley calling
him to account for having interfered in what, he said, belonged to
the Indian Secretary. The Duke referred him to the War Office, so
that there seems already a conflict of jurisdiction between the two
offices. From all this it is apparent that we shall have fresh Indian
discussions when Parliament meets, and there will be a necessity for
fresh arrangements for the transaction of business. This may seem to be
a very trifling matter, and not worth noticing, but Lord Stanley is so
completely _the man_ of the present day, and in all human probability
is destined to play so important and conspicuous a part in political
life, that the time may come when any details, however minute, of his
early career will be deemed worthy of recollection.
I hear the Queen has written a letter to the Prince of Wales announcing
to him his emancipation from parental authority and control, and
that it is one of the most admirable letters that ever were penned.
She tells him that he may have thought the rule they adopted for his
education a severe one, but that his welfare was their only object,
and well knowing to what seductions of flattery he would eventually be
exposed, they wished to prepare and strengthen his mind against them,
that he was now to consider himself his own master, and that they
should never intrude any advice upon him, although always ready to give
it him whenever he thought fit to seek it. It was a very long letter,
all in that tone, and it seems to have made a profound impression on
the Prince, and to have touched his feelings to the quick. He brought
it to Gerald Wellesley in floods of tears, and the effect it produced
is a proof of the wisdom which dictated its composition.
Footnote 1: [Lord Stanley, the present Earl of Derby, had succeeded to
the Presidency of the Board of Control upon the resignation of Lord
Ellenborough, and was the first Secretary of State for India upon the
abolition of the former office.]
[Sidenote: LORD DERBY'S REFORM BILL.]
_November 17th._--The principal topics of interest for the last
fortnight have been Bright's speeches, the visit of Palmerston and
Clarendon to Compiègne, the Portuguese and French quarrel, and the
pamphlet and approaching trial of Montalembert, on all of which there
is plenty to say. Bright's speeches have evidently been a failure, and
if they produce any effect, it will probably be one rather useful to
the Government; but the very failure only proves more strongly the bad
policy of Derby in bringing forward a Reform measure, and how much more
safe he would have been if he had let it alone. There is a considerable
though not universal impression that by some means and through the
operation of the chapter of accidents this Reform Bill will prove fatal
to him. Mr. Elwin, the editor of the 'Quarterly Review,' told the
Duke of Bedford he thought so, and that he had been told by a Cabinet
Minister that there had been such serious differences of opinion
amongst them on this subject that if the session had been prolonged the
Government would probably have gone to pieces at that time, and Lord
John told the Duke that Walpole had intimated to him something of the
same kind. Lord John is expecting, and Palmerston is hoping, that the
Government will fall, and the latter is still confident that his day
will come again, a confidence which no one else seems to partake of.
Clarendon, who is the staunchest of Palmerston's allies and colleagues,
has been endeavouring to dissipate this illusion and to bring him to
take a more accurate view of his own position, but without success. 'He
cannot see why John Russell should not again take office under him,'
and it is in vain that Clarendon assures him that nothing on earth will
induce Lord John to do so. Lord John seems disposed to bide his time,
and evidently cherishes a hope and expectation that the Whig party
will return to their allegiance to him and enable him to form another
Government. He seems to have a liking for Bright, though he does not
agree with all his views of Reform. At this moment my own belief is
that the present Government have the best chance in this race for power
from the mere fact of their being in possession, and from the hopeless
disunion and confusion in which the Whigs and Liberals are plunged.
Montalembert's paper is admirable, and I agree with almost every part
of it, especially about the Indian debate and Indian policy, and
the causes of Palmerston's extraordinary fall and the loss of his
popularity. His prosecution by the Imperial Government is either an
enormous mistake and political error, or a stroke of policy so deep and
refined as to be beyond my comprehension. Here everybody regards it as
a great imprudence.
[Sidenote: PROSECUTION OF COUNT MONTALEMBERT.]
_December 2nd._--I returned to town yesterday, having been to Badger
Hall, thence to Grimstone, then to Ossington, and yesterday from
Hinchinbrook. If I have written nothing it is not from want of
interesting events worth notice, but because I have known and heard
nothing more than all the world learnt from the newspapers. The chief
topics of interest have been the pamphlet and the trial of Montalembert
and the visit of Palmerston and Clarendon to Compiègne. The first seems
to have excited more interest here than in Paris, where the tyrannical
proceeding was taken very quietly, and little sympathy felt for a
man who wrote so enthusiastically about England, and rebuked his own
countrymen, and particularly his co-religionaries, for their unworthy
conduct and language towards us. There appears to have been a general
feeling of regret or disapproval of the visit to Paris, even on the
part of those who are most friendly to the two Lords. I think it is a
pity they should have gone just at this moment, when the Montalembert
affair and the Portuguese quarrel have made the Emperor Napoleon very
unpopular here; but it does not seem to me to be a matter of much
consequence, or to be worth the indignation which in some quarters it
has elicited.
_Hillingdon, December 12th._--I went to The Grove on Wednesday last
and came back on Friday. There I had long talks with Clarendon for
the first time for many a day, when he told me a great deal that was
interesting, just as he used to do formerly, first about his visit to
Compiègne and his conversations with the Emperor. The Emperor told him
that his motive for prosecuting Montalembert was that he was aware that
there was a conspiracy of literary men, enemies of his Government, to
write it down in a very insidious manner, not by any direct attacks,
but, under the pretence of discussing subjects either not political
or not French, to introduce matter most hostile and most mischievous
to him, and that it was necessary to put down such a conspiracy, and
he thought the best course was to proceed at once against a man so
conspicuous as Montalembert, and to make an example of him, by which
others would be deterred. This was his excuse, whatever its value.
It appears to me a very bad one, and I doubt if the fact itself is
true, though Clarendon seemed to think it was. They had a great deal
of conversation about Italy and the anti-Austrian projects attributed
to France, touching which the Emperor's ideas were most strange and
extravagant. He said there had been two questions in which France was
interested: one the regeneration of Poland, the other the regeneration
of Italy; that in the pursuit of the first France naturally became the
ally of Austria against Russia, in the pursuit of the other she became
the ally of Russia and Sardinia against Austria; that the peace with
Russia had put an end to anything being done about the first, and the
second alone became possible. Clarendon then pointed out to him all
the difficulties of involving himself in such a contest as this scheme
supposed, that Austria would sacrifice her last florin and her last
man in defence of her Italian provinces, that to go to war with her
would almost inevitably sooner or later plunge all Europe into war,
and that the object to be gained by it, even by France herself, would
be wholly incommensurate with the cost and the danger that would be
incurred. The Emperor appeared to have no reply to make to Clarendon's
remonstrances, nor did I gather that His Majesty had any _casus belli_
against Austria, nor even any just cause of complaint to urge against
her, from which I draw the inference not only that his policy is of
a very wild and chimerical character, but that at any moment when he
might see, or think he saw, any advantage in attacking another Power,
no consideration of justice and good faith, still less of moderation
and care for the happiness and peace of the world, would restrain him,
and from such a contingency England would be no more exempt than any
other country.[1]
Footnote 1: [It is remarkable that this conversation of the Emperor
with Lord Clarendon at Compiègne took place within a month of the
speech to Baron Hübner on New Year's Day, which was the signal of war
between France and Austria, and at a time when the secret alliance
between the Emperor and M. de Cavour had been already concluded. The
Emperor's object was evidently to delude his English guests, and Lord
Clarendon was partially deceived by him, although he clearly perceived
that there was danger of war ahead.]
_December 12th._--Another day the Emperor asked Clarendon to come into
his room, when he told him that he wanted his advice, that he was in
a great dilemma and embarrassment in regard to his Roman occupation,
and in a false position, from which he did not know how to extricate
himself. He was dying to recall the French troops and yet unable to
do it. He had always hoped to be able to get the policy laid down
in the Edgar Ney letter carried out, but as soon as the Pope and
his ecclesiastical councillors returned to Rome they refused to do
anything, and whenever he held out any threat of withdrawing his troops
they always said he might do so whenever he pleased, for they knew very
well the reasons which prevented his doing it: the moment the French
troops marched out there would be an uprising in Rome and in the Papal
States. The religious party in France would deeply resent his exposing
the Pope to any such danger, and as soon as the French went away the
Austrians would march in and be masters of the whole country. Clarendon
acknowledged the gravity of the situation and the difficulty, but could
suggest no solution of it. They discussed the possibility of inducing
the Pope to relinquish his temporal sovereignty, and to accept a great
revenue instead, but neither of them seems to have thought this plan
feasible.
[Sidenote: NAPOLEON'S SPEECH TO BARON HÜBNER.]
_January 14th_,1859.--I purposed at the close of the last year to say
a few words about a year which might well be called _annus mirabilis_
and _annus mæstissimus_ besides, for I do not remember any year marked
by a greater number and variety of remarkable events and occurrences,
and certainly none which has been so fatal to the happiness of so many
of our friends. One calamity has succeeded another with frightful
rapidity, till it is difficult to point to any one who has not
sustained some terrible bereavement in the persons of near and dear
relations or intimate friends. A severe fit of gout which attacked
me on Christmas Day, and has kept hold of me ever since, prevented
my executing my purpose, and now I have forgotten all I intended to
say, and can only take up the present condition of affairs as they
present themselves at the beginning of this year, and this is dark and
unpromising enough. All Europe has been thrown into alarm by the speech
which the Emperor Napoleon made to the Austrian Ambassador Hübner on
New Year's Day, and by the announcement which followed it that Prince
Napoleon was going to Turin to marry the King of Sardinia's daughter.
The language of the King of Sardinia in his speech to his Parliament
shortly afterwards confirmed the general apprehensions. The menacing
manifestations having produced their effect, the Emperor seems to have
thought it adviseable to draw in his horns, and to try and calm the
effervescence he had produced. This, however, was not so easy, and in
spite of certain tranquillising articles which the French Press was
instructed to put forth, the impression that mischief is brewing cannot
be effaced, and though many think that there will be no immediate
outbreak, and the money dealers and speculators comfort themselves with
thinking that want of money will prevent the great military Powers
from going to war, the best informed persons, and those who are most
accustomed to watch the signs of the times, are convinced that the time
is near at hand when the peace of the world will be broken, that the
Emperor is determined upon an aggression on Austria, and that he is
only undecided as to the time when the operation shall be begun. It is
now evident that when our Ex-Ministers were at Compiègne, and when the
Emperor pretended that he wanted to consult Clarendon confidentially,
he only made a half-confidence of his views and his position, and that
he concealed from Clarendon the important fact of the marriage of
Prince Napoleon, which was arranged at the time.
_The Grove, January 25th._--I have passed three days here very
agreeably; a large party on Saturday and Sunday, after which Clarendon,
George Lewis, and I, talking over everything interesting at home and
abroad. There has been a good deal of correspondence between Clarendon
and John Russell in a very friendly spirit, quite different from the
terms they have been on till lately, and indicating the possibility
of their coming together again in Opposition and in office. I saw
also some letters of Palmerston's upon foreign affairs, exceedingly
sound and judicious. I am bound to say that all I hear and see of
Palmerston's views, opinions, and conduct is highly creditable to him,
and very different from what I expected. He evinces no impatience to
return to office, and no misconception of his own position. All he
writes on foreign affairs, on France and Austria and Italy, is marked
by great wisdom and moderation. He is taking his proper place as head
of the Liberal and Whig party, prepared to go to Parliament and wait
for the development of the policy and measures of the Government,
before forming any plan of a political campaign. Reading at the same
time the letters of Lord John and those of Palmerston on the same
subject, that of foreign policy, I am struck with the great superiority
of the latter.
[Sidenote: LORD PALMERSTON'S VIEW OF THE ITALIAN WAR.]
_Bretby, January 27th._--I left The Grove yesterday morning, and came
here to-day. At breakfast yesterday Clarendon handed over to me a
letter from Reeve, enclosing one from Guizot upon the aspect of affairs
in Europe and the chances of war and peace; an admirable letter, as all
his are. Reeve said that he had been told that Palmerston was likely
to give utterance to some sentiments very anti-Austrian, and in favour
of Italian nationality, than which nothing could be more mischievous
or more conducive to the objects of Louis Napoleon. This seemed to me
so inconsistent with the spirit of moderation and good sense which I
had remarked in the letters I had already seen of Palmerston's, that
I said I could not think it possible that he was meditating anything
of the sort, and I was greatly surprised when Clarendon replied, and
George Lewis agreed with him, that nothing was more possible, and
that he should not be at all surprised if he expressed sentiments
which were very much those which he had always entertained. Of course
they both deprecated any such language in the strongest manner. When
I got to town I told Reeve what had passed, and he then told me his
authority for what he had written, and that his informant had gathered
it from conversations with Palmerston himself. It was at all events
satisfactory to find that the language of the 'Times' had undergone
no alteration, and that they adhered to the same judicious course and
vigorous argumentation which they have all along adopted. Clarendon
and George Lewis are equally afraid of what John Russell may say, but
they are aware that though he may do considerable mischief, his _dicta_
are infinitely less important than Palmerston's. Granville arrived
last night from Paris and Rome, and I saw him for a few minutes as
I was starting to come here. I had just time to ascertain that his
views are identical with those of Clarendon and George Lewis, and that
his efforts will be joined to theirs in attempting to persuade both
Palmerston and John Russell to refrain from saying anything which may
serve as an encouragement to the Emperor, and George Lewis said that on
Palmerston's language in the House of Commons the peace of the world
might possibly depend. There seems no reason to doubt that one of the
things which keeps the Emperor's mind in suspense and uncertainty is
his desire to hear what passes in our Parliament, and to ascertain what
amount of sympathy and support the Italian cause and a war against
Austria are likely to find in this country. Palmerston must have
already taken such a measure of the public feeling here as to know
that any appeal to anti-Austrian and pro-Italian sympathies would meet
with no response either in or out of Parliament. The most, therefore,
that he will probably venture to do will be strenuously to recommend
a complete neutrality, and that this country should determine to keep
aloof from any contest that may ensue. This would be playing the
Emperor's game, and might perhaps be more useful to him than any other
course we could take, for it would find pretty general concurrence,
and most likely elicit many expressions of opinions which the Emperor
would be able with some plausibility to construe in the manner most
favourable to his own pretensions and designs.
_January 31st._--Dined with Lord Salisbury on Saturday at the Sheriffs'
dinner, when I met all the Cabinet, except Malmesbury, Hardwicke, and
John Manners. Derby told me a curious thing. An experiment was made of
the possible speed by which a telegraphic message could be sent and an
answer got. They fixed on Corfu, made every preparation, and sent _one
word_. The message and return were effected in six seconds. I would not
have believed this on any other authority.
[Sidenote: UNPOPULARITY OF THE WAR.]
Granville is just come from Paris, where he spent a week; he saw and
conversed with everybody, beginning with the Emperor and ending with
Thiers. All the Ministers he talked to, Walewski, Fould, and Rouher,
are dead against war, Morny the same, Baroche said to be for it, and
Fleury, who wants to distinguish himself in the field. The Emperor
talked over the whole question and assured him he had not committed
himself to the King of Sardinia, but on the contrary had told him he
would not support him if he committed any imprudence towards Austria.
Granville's impression is that the question is adjourned for the
present, owing to the clear manifestation in France, but much more to
the unanimous tone of the German and English Press. He is, however,
waiting in great anxiety for the debates in our Parliament, and still
hopes for some anti-Austrian expression which may favour his own views.
He has such a contempt for his own nation and for the opinions of
the French people that these last do not weigh much with him, and he
fancies that they may be at any moment changed and run in a warlike
current. Granville thinks our Government have acted properly throughout
these transactions, so far as he can judge.
_February 5th._--Parliament opened on Thursday with, as everybody
owned, a very good speech, and the discussions in both Houses were in a
very good tone, and all that could be desired as to foreign policy. It
will be impossible for the Emperor to derive from what passed a single
word from any quarter favourable to his projects. The disappointment
of his expectations in this respect may be very annoying to him, and
possibly induce him still to defer his final resolution, but it is
too much to hope that the language of our Parliament will turn him
altogether from his design. Indeed it has now become equally difficult
for him to advance without danger or to retreat without discredit, and
in his position discredit is in itself fraught with danger.
_February 12th._--The Emperor Napoleon's speech, looked for with
so much anxiety here, arrived a few hours after its delivery on
Monday last, and was on the whole regarded as rather pacific than
the contrary, but still so reserved and ambiguous that it might mean
anything or lead to anything or nothing. The general opinion seems
to be that nothing will take place _for the present_. The Government
have begun their campaign so quietly, and with so little disturbance
or threatening of any, that if such calm appearances were not often
fallacious, one should predict their passing smoothly through the
session; but when one thinks of this time last year, of the apparent
strength and security of Palmerston's Government, and of the suddenness
of his fall, it is impossible to rely upon the continuance of this
unclouded sky.
_February 19th._--The general complaint is that nothing is done in
Parliament, and that there is a general apathy, under the continuance
of which the Government gets on without hindrance, while their faults
or blunders pass unchecked. The Chancellor incurred a momentary odium
by his attempt at perpetrating a very shameless job, by making his
son-in-law a Judge in Lunacy without having any qualifications for
such an office; but after a little spurt in the House of Commons, the
result of which was the appointment being rescinded, the matter quietly
dropped. Gladstone's extravagant proceedings at Corfu[1] have elicited
something like an attack led on by Lord Grey, but although this subject
will probably be more seriously and warmly discussed after he comes
home, it does not seem likely to lead to much at present, and Derby
will probably parry Grey's attack on Monday next.
Footnote 1: [Mr. Gladstone had accepted, temporarily, the office of
Lord High Commissioner of the Ionian Islands, under Lord Derby's
Government. His proceedings there excited great surprise in England.
The eventual result of his mission was the surrender of the
Protectorate of the Ionian Islands to the Kingdom of Greece.]
[Sidenote: LORD COWLEY'S MISSION TO VIENNA.]
_February 27th._--Derby prevailed on Grey to defer his Ionian motion
till Gladstone's return, which he said would be in a fortnight at
least. Palmerston had given notice of his intention to call the
attention of the House of Commons to the present state of Europe, and
to ask if the Government could give the country any information on the
subject. The Government tried to persuade him to defer his intention,
but without effect, and he persisted in his course. In the meanwhile
Cowley suddenly arrived in England, sent for by the Government, as it
was said, for the purpose of receiving instructions in respect to the
conferences expected at Paris on the Danubian affairs. On Thursday
morning the world was electrified at reading an article in the 'Times'
stating that Cowley was going on a special mission to Vienna for the
purpose of making matters up, if possible, between France and Austria.
The day before I had been apprised of the fact by Granville, who had
heard it from Clarendon, to whom Cowley had imparted the secret of
his mission. The mission was in fact rather one from the Emperor than
from our Government, who had really done nothing whatever, but were
too happy to allow Cowley to go and try his hand in patching matters
up. He has done it all off his own bat. Seeing how day after day war
appeared to be becoming more imminent, he resolved to see if he could
not do something to arrest the evil; he found the French Ministers
quite agreed with him, and the Emperor in a state of mingled rage,
disappointment, and perplexity, clinging with his characteristic
tenacity to the designs on which his mind has been so long fixed, and
to which he probably stands committed more than we are aware of, by
his own professions, and by his cousin, who no doubt gave Cavour to
understand he might certainly count upon the Emperor's aid. This course
also he is the more reluctant to abandon, as he has certainly persuaded
himself, or has been persuaded by others, that in no other way can he
secure himself from the attempts of Italian conspirators and assassins,
so that it is personal fear which is the real ground of what is called
his policy. On the other hand, he is intensely disgusted and enraged
at finding the whole feeling and opinion of England so decidedly
pronounced against him, and that in no quarter whatever, neither in
Parliament nor the Press, which represents the mind of the whole
country, nor in any public men, can he find the slightest sympathy or
encouragment, or anything but the most indignant disapprobation.[1] The
sentiment of England is if possible still stronger in the same sense
in Germany, and it is universal in France, where it is only prevented
from manifesting itself with as much force and vivacity as in Germany
and here by the fettered and subservient condition of the Press. In
addition to this I am informed that the project of war is not popular
with the army itself; and as it is not morally certain that by plunging
into war the Emperor will be secure from the danger of assassination,
and there is at least as good a chance of war bringing with it perils
of another sort quite as formidable, so his very selfishness makes
him doubt and waver, and inclines him to listen to the remonstrances
which are addressed to him. Upon this uncertain and varying state of
mind Cowley has been endeavouring to work, and he has so far succeeded
as to have been entrusted by the Emperor with a commission to go to
Vienna and negotiate with the Austrian Government a settlement of
their differences, or rather, as there are in fact no differences to
settle, to obtain from the Austrian Government some concessions by
virtue of which he may be enabled to withdraw from his present false
position without discredit, by which means he may give satisfaction to
France and Europe, though at the risk of disappointing Sardinia and
exasperating the Italian Carbonari.
When Palmerston's discussion came on upon Friday last, it was already
known (through the 'Times') that Cowley was going to Vienna, though
he himself had told nobody of this expedition (except Clarendon), and
he evidently did not mean it should have been proclaimed. On Friday,
Disraeli and Malmesbury said nothing of Cowley's mission, but they both
announced that the Papal territories would be evacuated by the French
and Austrian troops, and the public inferred that this evacuation
was going to take place by a mutual agreement, and everybody asked,
'Why then is Cowley going to Vienna?' but the truth was that the
Pope had requested the two Governments to withdraw their troops, and
one of Cowley's objects is to procure the assent of Austria to that
withdrawal, France having no doubt agreed to it on certain conditions,
of which I do not know the details, but which are committed to the
management of Cowley. Clarendon seemed to think that there was no more
danger _now_ of the pacific purpose of Cowley being obstructed at
Vienna than at Paris, for he said that the Austrians are so proud, and
moreover so greatly incensed at the conduct of France, that it is very
doubtful whether they will be induced to make any concessions at all,
and whether the Emperor of Austria will not prefer to encounter all the
danger of war, prepared as he is, than consent to anything which should
have the appearance of humbling himself before the outrageous pretences
and intolerable insolence of the Emperor of the French.
[Sidenote: MR. WALPOLE AND MR. HENLEY RESIGN.]
In the midst of the absorbing interest of this great question, the
Government Reform Bill is coming on. They appear to have thought it
adviseable to bespeak the good word of the 'Times,' and accordingly
they sent Delane a copy of their Bill. This morning the heads of it
appear in the 'Times' with an approving article. Mild as it appears to
be, it is too strong for Walpole and Henley, who have resigned, but why
they did not resign before it is difficult to understand. At Kent House
yesterday afternoon there was a little gathering of Clarendon, Charles
Wood, and George Lewis, when they all agreed that if the Government
measure was such a one as they could possibly support, their proper
policy would be to assist the Government in carrying it.
Footnote 1: [The war of 1859 is now judged of more favourably than
it was at the time of its inception, and the result obtained--the
independence and unification of Italy--has led men to condone the
tortuous and deceitful policy by which it was arrived at. The object
of M. de Cavour was a noble one, although the means he employed were
unscrupulous. The chief motive of the Emperor Napoleon was the fear
of his old allies the Carbonari. Orsini's attempt on his life had
powerfully affected him.
To English statesmen of all parties (with one or two exceptions) it
was apparent that the declaration of war by France on Austria was the
destruction of the great compact of 1815, which (whatever may have been
its defects) had given forty-four years of peace to the Continent of
Europe, and which had survived the Revolution of 1848 and the Crimean
contest of 1854. It was the first outbreak of the military power of
the French Empire and it was likely to lead to future wars, as the
result has proved. The defeat of Austria and the dissolution of the
Germanic Confederation in 1866 was the result of the combined action of
Prussia and Italy, north and south of the Alps; and the Franco-German
War of 1870 was the result of the military ascendency Prussia had thus
acquired in Europe. The policy of England was simply based on the
principle that the duration of peace depended on the maintenance of the
existing territorial arrangements of Europe.]
_March 1st._--According to all political calculations Cowley's mission
ought to succeed, but I feel no confidence in his success, and rather
believe that the Emperor Napoleon is acting with his usual duplicity
and treachery, and duping Cowley to gain time, which is necessary to
his plans.[1] It is revolting to see that the peace of the world and
so much of the happiness or misery of mankind depend upon the caprice
and will and the selfish objects and motives of a worthless upstart
and adventurer, who is destitute of every principle of honour, good
faith, or humanity, but who is unfortunately invested with an enormous
power for good or evil. And this is the end of fifty years of incessant
movement, of the progress of society, of the activity and development
of the human intellect in the country which is eternally mouthing about
its superior civilisation and its mission to extend the benefits of
that civilisation over the whole world.
Disraeli brought forward his Reform Bill last night in a well-set
speech, only too elaborate. It was coolly received, except by its most
angry opponents, who lost no time in denouncing it.
Footnote 1: [This was the fact. It was not known until long afterwards
that positive engagements had been entered into at Plombières between
the Emperor and M. de Cavour in the preceding autumn, including the
marriage of Prince Napoleon to the daughter of the King of Sardinia,
and the cession of Savoy and Nice as a compensation for the conquest of
Northern Italy. Cavour had the Emperor in his power, and threatened, if
he drew back, to publish the correspondence.]
[Sidenote: THE GOVERNMENT REFORM BILL.]
_March 3rd._--It would be difficult to say what the feeling of the
House of Commons really is on the subject of the Government Reform
Bill. The night it came out everybody who spoke spoke against it. The
Ultra-Reformers, from Bright down to John Russell, naturally express
nothing but abhorrence and contempt for such a measure; half-and-half
Reformers, who consider Reform a necessity, and who would be glad
to have the question settled for the present on such easy terms,
do not venture to say much in its favour; and the Whigs generally,
particularly at their head-quarters, Brooks's, discuss with much
variety of opinion whether the second reading ought to be resisted or
not, the prevailing opinion being that the principle of the Bill (which
is the equalisation of town and county franchise) is so inadmissible
that it ought to be rejected, and they come to that conclusion the more
readily because they think its rejection in that stage would put an
end to the Government. On the other hand, Derby brought together two
hundred of his supporters the day after the Bill appeared, and obtained
their assent to it, and an engagement to support it. The resignations
of Henley and Walpole have been prejudicial to the Government. Their
explanations, which were full of half-suppressed bitterness towards
their colleagues, were considered damaging, and to have revealed
trickery on the part of Derby, though they seem to me to have rather
exhibited weakness on the part of the retiring Ministers. But what
they have clearly shown is the extreme penury of the party in point
of intellectual resources, when they can find no man of any weight or
reputation to fill up the vacancies. But if the Government is weak, and
their position very precarious, the state of the Opposition is at least
as deplorable, for there is no union or agreement amongst them, and
Granville acknowledged to me last night that if Derby should fall on
the second reading, and Palmerston be sent for, as it may be expected
he would be, by the Queen, that it is impossible to see how another
Government could be formed. This state of affairs and the magnitude
of the embarrassment will probably at last make some of those who so
obstinately insisted upon their being right in resigning last year
after the Vote of Censure, begin to think that they would have done
better to accept the rebuke and stay in. All that is now occurring
serves to confirm my own opinion upon that point.
Since Cowley's arrival at Vienna nothing has been heard of his mission,
but there is nothing apparent tending to lead to the conclusion that he
has been able to do any good, and the general impression is that the
Emperor Napoleon is only endeavouring to gain time, and making a tool
of Cowley in hopes of thereby committing this country in some degree
to his ulterior designs, and there are not wanting persons who believe
that it will after all be against this country that his arms will be
turned, and not against Austria.
_March 8th._--On Saturday morning the 'Times' published the article in
the 'Moniteur' (evidently the Emperor's composition), in which a formal
denial was given to the imputed warlike intentions of France. The
general impression produced by this manifesto was that the Emperor had
at last been diverted from his purpose by the various manifestations
which he had seen at home as well as abroad, and that he had resolved
to abandon it altogether. Many, however, refused to believe in this
happy result, and thought that he was only trying to throw dust in
the eyes of the world, and endeavouring to gain time. All things
considered, I incline to believe that he has resolved to postpone his
warlike designs _sine die_, though retaining his wish to employ the
vast means on which he has expended so much money, and looking forward
to some pretext which the chapter of accidents may afford him to
execute his purpose.
Strenuous efforts are making to bring about an understanding and
agreement between the Whig leaders as to opposing the Government Bill,
in which nobody is so active as George Lewis, who being very intimate
with John Russell, and much in his confidence, and at the same time
still on a footing of an adherent of Palmerston, is better qualified
than any one to form a link between the two and to produce a mutual
accord. John Russell has drawn up certain Resolutions which he intends
to move on the second reading. These Resolutions have been shown to
George Grey and to Palmerston, who have agreed to support them, and it
may be presumed that if all the Whig leaders, or even most of them,
take this course, they will be followed by the majority of the rank and
file. The Government and their friends are considerably alarmed at this
hostile demonstration, and the more disappointed because they had been
led to believe that Palmerston intended to support the second reading,
and they knew that many moderate Whigs were inclined to take the same
course. Some may do so still, but if the rival leaders can agree upon
an attack on the Bill, though they may be agreed on nothing else, it is
certainly probable that the Government will be beaten. Then will come
the question of dissolution or resignation. This will probably depend
on the amount and composition of the majority, and it will be a knotty
point for Derby to decide upon.
[Sidenote: OPPOSITION TO THE REFORM BILL.]
_Savernake, March 9th._--I met George Lewis at the Athenæum yesterday,
and had a talk about the state of affairs here. He told me that
the whole Liberal party, he believed, would support John Russell's
Resolutions. There had been considerable doubt at first whether the
second reading of the Bill should be opposed or not, but upon a close
examination of the Bill they found that it was such a dishonest measure
that it could not be allowed to pass, and therefore it was better to
throw it out at once. Palmerston and Lord John are now on very good
terms. Lord John had sent his Resolutions to Palmerston, and Palmerston
had sent him word he would support whatever he proposed. Lewis thinks,
though there is no agreement between them further than this with regard
to the Reform Bill, that if this Government falls, and the Whigs return
to power, means will be found of adjusting the rival pretensions of
the two leaders, and getting them to act together. To effect this,
his reliance is mainly on the Queen, who he thinks may and will exert
her influence and authority for this end. There is, however, a notion
abroad that if John Russell persists in his Resolutions, the Government
will withdraw the first clause, which is tantamount to withdrawing the
Bill itself. Lewis believes in this intention, and that if they do
it they will become so unpopular, and incur so much discredit, that
it will be impossible for them to go on or to attempt a dissolution.
Another notion is that they will withdraw the Bill, and endeavour to go
on without any Bill at all, trusting to the Opposition not daring to
propose a vote of want of confidence, which it is very doubtful if they
could carry. The only thing clear is that they are very anxious to turn
the Government out, and to take their chance of the consequences. Their
success seems not at all unlikely, but when they have accomplished
their object their embarrassments will begin. First there will be Lord
John and Palmerston, then _l'embarras des richesses_ of the numerous
candidates for office, and settling who is to come in and who are to be
thrown overboard.
_March 15th._--Cowley arrived from Vienna on Saturday. I have not yet
seen him, but Clarendon told me yesterday that he brings back the most
satisfactory assurances on the part of Austria, who is ready to give
every pledge of her pacific intentions, and to come to any agreement
with France upon the withdrawal of both their forces from the Papal
States, but that she will make no concessions inconsistent with her
rights and her dignity, or which could seem to damp the enthusiasm
now prevailing in Germany in her favour; in fact, that she has no
concessions to make. Within the last few days the symptoms from France
have been more menacing. At Paris the conviction is general that war
is meant, and I am obliged to believe it likewise. The resignation of
Prince Napoleon seems to have been a mere sham, and his intimacy with
the Emperor as close as ever. There is no reason to believe that the
military preparations in France are suspended, and in Piedmont they are
certainly going on actively.
[Sidenote: LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S RESOLUTIONS.]
The other great topic of interest, viz. the Reform Bill and John
Russell's Resolutions, does not look in a more satisfactory state.
While many sensible people deprecate this move of John Russell's,
and lament that Palmerston should have consented to support it, the
probability seems that it will be carried, but the greatest uncertainty
prevails as to the course which the Government will adopt, and whether
they will try to go on, dropping their Bill altogether, or continue
the fight with its remaining clauses, or whether they will take the
chance of a dissolution. It is now clear enough that Derby made a great
blunder in undertaking to deal with the question of Reform at all,
and that a consistent Conservative course would have been the most
honourable and the wisest, and have afforded him the best chance of
staying in office. By bringing forward a measure to the principle of
which it is well known that he and his whole Government and party are
in their hearts adverse, and then trying to vitiate the principle by
certain contrivances in the details, by which the scruples of his own
party may be obviated, he exposes himself to the charge of producing
a dishonest measure, and this is what the Whigs urge as their ground
for attacking it in front and at once. This is what Lewis said to me,
'We are bound to defeat a measure which is so dishonest that it is
not susceptible of such improvement in Committee as would warrant our
passing it.' The conduct of the Whigs, however, is not a whit more
honest. Their allegation is a mere pretext, and their real motive is
that they think they see their way back to office through an attack
upon the Government Bill; they are indifferent to the consequences,
and all they want is to get the coast clear for themselves, and take
the chance of settling the difficult questions which will arise as
to the formation of a Government and the conditions on which it can
be formed. All this appears to me quite as dishonest as anything the
Government have done or are doing. Palmerston never was a Reformer. He
was opposed as much as he dared and could be even to the great measure
of 1832, which all the world was for. When he brought forward a measure
of his own two or three years ago, he did it without sincerity or
conviction, and merely for a party object, and now he is uniting with
John Russell without any real agreement with him in opinion, and with
full knowledge that if they succeed and climb into office on the ruins
of the Government Bill he will be obliged to propose a measure much
stronger than he believes to be either necessary or safe. Believing
that Palmerston and John Russell were agreed no further than upon the
Resolutions on Monday next, I thought that a difference must arise
between them (in the event of their coming into office) on the Reform
Bill they should produce, but I was told just now that upon this point
they are already nearly if not completely agreed. They are, however,
not yet agreed upon the great question of the Premiership, or which of
them shall go to the House of Lords. The impatience and confidence of
Lord John seems to be unbounded, and in spite of his being the younger
by seven years, his eagerness to be in office again much more intense
than that of Palmerston. Although this is such a miserable Government,
both discreditable and incompetent, and it is a misfortune to have the
country ruled by such men, I cannot desire the success of such selfish
and unpatriotic manoeuvres as those by which the Whigs are endeavouring
to supplant them, and consequently I regard the whole state of affairs
with indescribable disgust and no small apprehension. I believe the
country to be in nearly equal danger from Louis Napoleon abroad and Mr.
Bright at home, and I fear that there is no capacity in the Government
to cope with the one, and no such amount of wisdom and patriotism
amongst the chief men of all parties as is requisite to defeat the
designs of the other.
_March 16th._--Cowley called on me yesterday at the Council Office.
He said that he had never believed there would be war, and he did not
expect it now; that all the agitation and turmoil that had been vexing
Europe for the last three months were to be attributed to the conduct
of Cavour and his attempts to drag France into assisting Piedmont
in her aggressive policy, and to misunderstandings which had been
produced by the strange conduct of the French Government, the imprudent
speech of the Emperor to Hübner on January 1st, and the ambiguous
manifestations which had followed it. To comprehend all these things it
was necessary to be acquainted with the whole course of Cavour's policy
and his dealings with France, and to understand the peculiar character
of the Emperor and the motives and impulses by which he is actuated.
When Austria refused to join England and France in the Russian War,
Cavour thought that an opportunity presented itself of which he might
take advantage, and which would lead to a realisation of his views for
the aggrandisement of Piedmont, and he offered to join the alliance
and send an army to the Crimea. This offer (as Cowley thinks very
imprudently and unfortunately) was accepted. He thinks it was unwise,
because the assistance of Piedmont was not required, and could not have
any material effect on the result of the contest, while it was sure to
excite hopes and expectations, and to give rise to demands which would
be afterwards found very inconvenient and embarrassing. Accordingly
Cavour took the earliest opportunity of expressing his hopes that when
peace should return Sardinia and her services would not be overlooked.
General expressions of goodwill were given, but Cowley cannot answer
for what more the Emperor may have said.
[Sidenote: LORD COWLEY'S VIENNA NEGOTIATION.]
His account of his mission does not quite correspond with what I had
before heard of it, and is an additional proof of the difficulty of
arriving at truth. He told me that he had written to Malmesbury and
told him he thought it very expedient to send somebody to Vienna to
talk to Buol and the Emperor, and to try and mediate between Austria
and France, to which Malmesbury had replied he had better go himself,
as nobody else would be so likely to effect the object. The consent of
Buol having been previously obtained, he proposed it at Paris, where
his services were gladly accepted. He had already spoken very openly
to the Emperor, and told him very plain truths as to his position and
his conduct, and when he went he told His Majesty without disguise what
his intentions were and his wishes, and what he desired that Austria
should do. The Emperor was very frank, totally disdained any wish to
make war, but said he should like Austria to do certain things, which
amounted to full security for Piedmont and renunciation of any unfair
and unjustifiable predominance in Italy. He found them at Vienna more
angry than alarmed; suspicious, but not unreasonable; their military
condition so good and powerful that, believing France really bent on
attacking them, there was a very general feeling that it was better war
should come at once than have it indefinitely hanging over them, and
at first it seemed unlikely that they would return any conciliatory
assurances which he might carry back to France. At last, however, he
got them to say what he thought was as much as could be expected from
them, and what ought to satisfy the French Government. Since he left
Paris (now three weeks ago or more) he has not had a line from thence,
and he is wholly ignorant of the march of affairs during his absence;
but he hopes and expects to find a pacific disposition, and his object
is to prevail on the Emperor to put an end to the general state of
uncertainty and alarm by announcing to Sardinia that she is in no
danger from Austria, and that therefore no assistance from France will
be necessary, and she may safely desist from her warlike preparations.
This is in fact the only way by which the crisis can be put an end to,
and if the Emperor really has been sincere in his professions and means
to make his acts correspond with them, he will forthwith put forward
some clear and unambiguous declaration, and some definite communication
to Piedmont which will leave no room for doubt or suspicion, and
restore confidence and tranquillity to Europe again.
_March 22nd._--Yesterday the 'Times' announced that a Congress had been
agreed upon, which was believed, so the funds rose and there was a
general belief that a solution was at hand, but it turns out not to be
true. The Emperor wishes for one as a means by which he may back out of
his scrape, which Cowley writes is now his object, but it is impossible
to believe that Austria will listen to it, and Clarendon thinks that
she would do wrong to consent to it, and that we should get into a
scrape by being a party to it, as no reliance whatever can be placed on
the good faith or honesty of France, who would deceive us and Austria,
as she has often done before.
Yesterday the Neapolitan exiles arrived at an hotel in Dover Street
in several hack cabs, decorated with laurels, and preceded by a band
of music. I did not see the men, but saw the empty cabs; there was no
crowd.
Nothing could be more uninteresting than the first evening of the
debate on John Russell's Resolutions last night. Lord March told me in
the morning that the Government would certainly dissolve as soon as
the Resolutions were carried. Every day makes the folly of Derby more
apparent in bringing in any Reform Bill at all.
[Sidenote: DEBATE ON REFORM BILL]
_March 24th._--When I think of the Reform Bill of 1832, and compare
the state of affairs at that time with that of the present time,
nothing can be more extraordinary. Then the interest was intense, the
whole country in a fever of excitement, the Press rabid, the clamour
for Reform all but universal, party running tremendously high, no
doubt or hesitation about individual wishes and opinions, and each
camp perfectly united in itself, and full of energy and zeal. In
this condition of the public mind and of politics the debates began
and continued. This debate has begun and seems likely to continue,
how differently! There are neither zeal nor union on one side or
the other, everybody is dissatisfied with the state of affairs, and
nobody can see a satisfactory issue from the general embarrassment.
There have been two nights of debate, and as yet all the speaking has
been one way, all on the anti-Reform side. John Russell was flat, and
Stanley, who replied to him, actually read his speech, which, though
it was much complimented by his own friends, seems to have been far
from effective. Horsman made a very good speech the first night, and
Bulwer Lytton spoke with great eloquence and effect on Tuesday, far
better than anybody thought he could speak, and the Solicitor-General
made a magnificent speech, in which he attacked John Russell with
great vigour and complete success. The only tolerable speech on the
Opposition side was Sidney Herbert's. Nobody has the least idea what
course the Government will take of the three open to them, whether they
will resign, dissolve, or go on with the second reading. The inference
from Stanley's speech was that they will dissolve, but Lytton and
Cairns seemed anxious to do away with the impression that speech had
made, and one is led to infer from what they said that the Government
will most likely proceed to the second reading, which would probably
be their wisest and certainly their most popular course. The majority
of those who are going to vote for the Resolutions do so unwillingly,
and would have preferred going into Committee, or to have fought the
battle on the second reading. As it is, if Government do not throw up
their cards, the second reading is in my opinion sure to pass, and not
improbably the Bill itself with great alterations.
The state of foreign affairs is as uncertain as ever. So incurable is
the distrust of the Emperor Napoleon that the greatest doubts prevail
whether he means peace or war, and whether even this Congress which he
is trying to bring about is not a mere dodge for the purpose of gaining
time, and in order to extract out of it a plausible case for a complete
breach with Austria.
Gladstone is come back from Italy completely duped by Cavour, who has
persuaded him that Piedmont has no ambition or aggressive objects, and
that Austria alone is guilty of all the trouble in which the world has
been plunged. He told this to Aberdeen, who treated his delusions and
his credulity with the utmost scorn and contempt, but he is said to
have found John Russell more credulous, and ready to accept Gladstone's
convictions.
_March 26th._--The debate goes on, to the intense disgust of everybody,
though enlivened by a few clever and telling speeches. But everybody
is disgusted with the whole affair, from which all see that no good
can come, and probably much mischief will ensue. The Government side
continues to have the best of the debate, Horsman, who spoke for them,
and Lytton and Cairns having been very superior to all the speakers on
the other side. On Friday Palmerston spoke, with great vigour, but not
much effect. His speech was very jaunty, but very insincere. When he
said that he cordially supported the Resolutions of his noble friend,
everybody knew that it was not true, that he really disapproved of them
and that he only consented to go with Lord John in order to evince
his willingness to make up their political difference, and to lend
himself to the reunion of all the Whig party; but in his speech he said
enough to show that there is not likely to be an entire or lasting
agreement between them, and that the two Kings of Brentford will not
long continue to smell at the same nosegay. The Opposition have been
all along quite confident of victory on the Resolutions, and it has
been impossible to make sure of the intentions of the Government in
the event of their being beaten, as they have severally held such very
different language on the point.
But an incident has occurred which is very likely to extricate the
Government from their difficulty, and of which I presume they will
avail themselves. Owen Stanley (brother of Stanley of Alderley) the
other night blurted out, without previous concert with anybody, a
notice of a motion of want of confidence in the event of the second
reading not passing. The Opposition are unanimously disgusted at
this piece of folly and meddling, while the Government are of course
delighted at such a plank of safety being held out to them, and if
they use it dexterously, they may completely defeat Lord John and
Palmerston, and prolong their own tenure of office for some time at
least.
[Sidenote: DEFEAT OF THE MINISTRY]
_April 1st._--The great debate came to an end last night. The majority
was greater than either side expected, and the Government and their
friends were sanguine to the last that they should win by a few
votes.[1] Although there was a great deal of tedious speaking, it was
on the whole a very able and creditable debate, and there were several
very powerful speeches, but principally on the side of the minority.
Gladstone's was particularly good, and Dizzy's reply, with a very
effective philippic against John Russell, was exceedingly clever,
and delivered with much dignity and in very good taste. Although
the question of Reform was regarded with so much indifference, as
the debate proceeded and party spirit and emulation waxed hot, the
interest and curiosity became intense. They have become still more
intense to-day, and the town is in a state of feverish anxiety to know
what is going to happen, and, as usual on such occasions, there are a
thousand reports, speculations, and guesses afloat. This morning the
prevalent idea was that they would resign, but this evening, and since
Derby's brief notice in the House of Lords, it is rather that they will
dissolve. Certainly the Queen might very well refuse her consent to a
dissolution if proposed to her, and this would of course compel the
Government to resign; but nobody knows whether she wishes Derby to stay
in, or would prefer to take the chance of forming another Ministry. I
have no idea that happen what may she will send for Lord John Russell;
but no doubt she knows all that has recently passed between him and
Palmerston, and about the formation of another Government, and it
is not impossible that she may shrink from being plunged into the
difficulties which would attend the attempts to form a Government in
which they were to divide the power and authority between them.
Footnote 1: [The numbers were: for the second reading of the Bill
291, for Lord John Russell's Resolutions 330; majority against the
Government 39.]
_April 4th._--The report yesterday was that Derby does not mean to
resign or dissolve, or to go on with the present Bill, but perhaps
bring in a fresh one. As we shall hear it all this evening, it is
useless to speculate on the subject. The Opposition are evidently
puzzled what to do. I went to Kent House, where Lewis said the
Government were much mistaken if they imagined they should be left
alone; he did not know what would be done, but certainly they must look
to be attacked in some shape or other. Granville in the evening took
the opposite line, and said the best party game would be to let them
alone. Nothing, however, will ever induce John Russell to keep quiet.
[Sidenote: M. DE CAVOUR'S POLICY]
Clarendon came in, and we talked of foreign affairs. He thinks war
inevitable, and that the French are only gaining time to complete their
preparations. I said I thought Cowley had been duped by the Emperor,
but he thought not. Cowley had all along seen all the objections to
the proposed Congress and suspected the _arrière pensée_ of it, but
said it was impossible when proposed to object to it, as the Emperor
would put forward such a refusal as a pretext, and say that it would
have prevented war. Two years ago he had a reliance upon the Emperor
which he had no longer; that he was completely changed now from what
he was, and it was difficult to know what he really meant, and when
he was sincere or the reverse. Clarendon told us he had lately seen
Marliani, an old acquaintance of his, a Spanish Liberal and friend of
Cavour's. Marliani said that the Italian question was ill understood
in England, and he had come over for the express purpose of seeing
Clarendon and talking it over with him, and putting before him a paper
he had written upon it. The conversation was curious. Clarendon told
him he was quite mistaken if he thought the Government or any other
Government could take any part at variance with the existing treaties,
or that the country would allow them to do so, even if inclined. He
then asked him what his friend Cavour meant to do in the dilemma in
which he had got himself and his country, and expressed very strong
opinions on his conduct. Marliani replied that it was not quite just
to censure Cavour with such severity, and without considering his
position, that during his whole life his most ardent desire and fixed
idea was that of purging Italy of the Austrians and aggrandising his
own country, and now when he saw before him the probable realisation of
his fond hopes, that he was backed up and encouraged by the master of
300,000 men in the game he was playing, and taught to rely upon that
aid, could it be wondered at that he should yield to the seduction?
Clarendon asked what would happen if the Emperor proved faithless to
him, as he had done to others, and in what position Cavour would find
himself. Marliani replied that he had no hesitation in telling him what
he thought need not be a secret, at least to him, as he was sure Cavour
would tell Clarendon himself if he saw him, and that Cavour had fully
made up his mind what to do. If the Emperor ended by throwing over the
Italian cause and refused to go to war, Cavour would resign, the King
would abdicate, and the whole correspondence with all the Emperor's
letters (of which they had an immense number) would be published and
circulated over all Europe to show the baseness and perfidy of the
man in whom they had trusted, and to force him to hide his head from
the indignation and contempt of the world. Everything indicates that,
whether from fear of this vindictive explosion or because he thinks
it his policy, he is hastening his preparations, has renewed his
engagements to Cavour, and that he means to go to war as soon as he can.