_September 24._
Cabinet room. Read all the letters from Petersburg, Paris, Berlin, and
Constantinople during the last fortnight, and the despatches sent during
the last month.
R. Gordon seems to have done very well. He and Guilleminot have acted
cordially together, and when they had induced the Porte to consent to make
peace on the terms prescribed by the Russians, Gordon managed very
prudently to get General Muffling to send his secretary to the Russian
head-quarters with the Turkish Plenipotentiaries. Muffling would have gone
with them to the Reis Effendi had he been well enough; as it was, he sent
his secretary, who afterwards went to the Russian head-quarters and was
thus enabled to state distinctly what had passed in the conference held
with the Effendi. I think it very possible that without the intervention of
the Prussian Minister, who was known to be acquainted with the feelings of
the Emperor, General Diebitch would not have agreed to an armistice. The
armistice seems to have been made on August 29. We know of it from Seymour
at Berlin.
Polignac seems excellently well disposed. He would act cordially with us if
he dared. At present he is obliged to cover all he does under the
instructions given to Guilleminot by his predecessor under a different
state of things, before the great Russian successes. He talks of a Congress
of the Powers interested, and of a joint declaration if Russia should not
adhere to her promise.
Russia may be kept to her promises by the fear of a revolutionary movement
in France. The French Opposition desire the success of the Russians, the
dissolution of the Turkish Empire, and the occupation of the Dardanelles by
the Emperor Nicholas, because they know that such events would lead to a
_sotto sopra_ in Europe, a general scramble in which they would get the
Rhine as their boundary. Generally, I have no doubt, young France wishes
for confusion.
Austria is alarmed and would do nothing. The Prussians hold that the
existence of the Ottoman Empire is not essential to the balance of power
(that is, some of them do), and they would be glad to see Austria and
Russia divide Turkey, Prussia having her compensation in Germany. However,
Muffling, going rather beyond his instructions, has been made to do good.
I think all things tend to the preservation of peace if there should be no
explosion at Constantinople or in France. The Ottoman Empire seems,
however, to be falling to pieces. The Government has been so oppressive
that the people will not fight for it. The Sultan has but 4,000 troops, and
it is said the appearance of 10,000 Russians would lead to the capture of
Constantinople.
Diebitch seems to dread the catastrophe which might ensue, and the
ambassadors have placed before him in strong terms the fatal consequences
of an explosion at Constantinople.