JAPAN AND CHINA
The results of the war between Russia and Japan seem to have caused a
large number of persons to work themselves into a state of incipient
panic regarding what has been graphically, if not quite correctly,
termed "the yellow peril." Japan, a nation of some 47,000,000 people,
had thrown down the gauntlet and totally defeated, both by land and
sea, one of the great military Powers of the world. Japan had done all
this as a result of some quarter of a century spent in modelling and
training her Army and Navy on European lines, and adopting European
arms of destruction. Of course, so argued the panic-mongers, China
must be impressed by such an object-lesson--China, which has for so
many years past been, and is still being, squeezed by the European
Powers. The result of Japan's triumph would inevitably be, so we were
asked to believe, that China would invite the former to organise the
Chinese Army and Navy on Japanese lines. As the outcome thereof, a
nation, not of forty, but of four hundred millions, would be trained
to arms, and, if the Chinese raw material proved as good as the
Japanese, a nation so powerful, if it proceeded West on conquest bent,
would carry everything before it, and, unlike the last Eastern
invaders of Europe, the Turks, would be unlikely to be stopped on its
onward course at Vienna. The German Emperor was amongst those who have
voiced the cry of "the yellow peril." He does not, however, appear to
have cast himself for the part of John Sobieski, with Berlin instead
of Vienna as the decisive battle-ground. The persons who have so
argued and have attempted to raise this silly cry of "the yellow
peril," with a view of alarming Europe were, I think, merely the
victims of an exuberant imagination. Their facts have no existence
save in the realms of fancy, and as they reasoned from faulty premises
on imperfect or erroneous information, their conclusions were, as
might have been expected, not only inaccurate, but absurdly ludicrous.
There is no "yellow peril," no prospect whatever of it, either present
or remote.
The attitude of China, that vast though heterogeneous nation, is,
since the close of the Russo-Japanese War, I admit, one of the most
intense interest. Some persons may consider that in a book about Japan
any other than a passing reference to China is out of place, and that,
moreover, for me to deal with the attitude of China is to wander into
political regions--a peripatetic proceeding I deprecated in the
Preface. I am of opinion, however, that it is impossible to thoroughly
understand Japan and to appreciate the attitude of that country to the
Western Powers without some remarks respecting the present and
prospective relations of China and Japan. I also think that some
consideration of this bogey of "the yellow peril" is not only out of
place but indispensable in order to form a correct idea of the precise
effect of recent events in the Far East and the possible outcome of
them.
To any person who has closely studied Far Eastern problems the
attitude of China since the close of the war between Japan and Russia
is in no way surprising; the forces that have long been steadily at
work in that ancient Empire are now only attaining any degree of
development. There is nothing, in my opinion, in the history of the
world more dramatic than the way in which China has waited. That
country is now, I believe, about to show that the waiting policy has
been a sound one, and I am confident it will eventually prove
triumphant. In 1900 I expressed in print the opinion that not a single
acre of Japanese soil would ever be permitted to be annexed by a
foreign country; I spoke of the policy of China for the Chinese, and
remarked that that principle and policy had been repeated throughout
the length and breadth of that vast Empire, and had been absorbed, as
it were, into the very marrow of its people. It is in many respects
interesting and curious, indeed almost comical, the manner in which
that lesson has been driven home upon the Chinese. Russia has always
been to them a powerful, persistent, and aggressive neighbour, a more
formidable aggressor, indeed, because perhaps nearer, than any of the
other Powers of Europe, whom I am sorry to say China has always looked
upon very much as the substantial householder regards the burglar. Now
that Japan has tried conclusions with Russia and has soundly thrashed
the latter, great, slumbering China, proud, conservative, but
supremely conscious of its latent resources, has been waking up. The
Chinese, as a matter of fact, have very little veneration, respect, or
esteem, for their Japanese neighbours. The former plume themselves on
being the aristocrats of the East, and they reason, with some show of
plausibility, that if the upstart Japanese have been able to so
thoroughly rout the Russian forces the potential possibilities of
China on the warpath are enormous. Every thoughtful student of the
East has looked forward to what I may term the Japanisation of China
as one of the inevitable results of the recent conflict in the Far
East. To a certain extent the Japanisation of China has commenced, but
at the same time one cannot be oblivious of the fact that the Chinese,
with their traditions and sense of self-importance, have not the
slightest intention of slavishly following in the lead of those
islanders whom they have always contemned, but mean to strike out a
line for themselves. If what we believe to be civilisation is to be
developed in China, it will be developed by the Chinese themselves. If
they are going to possess railways, telegraphs, telephones, and all
the machinery of that material advancement which we call progress, and
sometimes civilisation, the Chinese themselves will be the importers
and adapters and, in due course, the manufacturers thereof.
Now that the great fight in the Far East is over, it certainly looks
as if the Chinese at last realised the fact that development is an
inevitable necessity. The master-spirits in the country have assuredly
come to the conclusion, possibly with regret, that China can no longer
remain in that delightful state of isolation which permitted every man
in the Empire to spend the arc of his life, from his cradle to his
grave, in a state of restful security. China is, in spite of herself,
and certainly against the inclinations of the mass of the populace,
being swept into the maelstrom of struggle now that the people, or
rather their leaders, realise the position. Their attitude seems to me
to be magnificent. If railways have to be made they will be made by
the Chinese; the concessions already granted must--this is the
universal feeling--be bought back, even at a profit, from those who
have acquired them, by the Chinese themselves. Not one new concession
must, on any pretence whatever, ever again be granted to a foreigner.
And if this Western civilisation is to be forced upon the Chinese,
they intend to take it with all its attendant precautions. They are
naturally a peaceful and unaggressive people, but they have grasped
the fact that, as a strong man armed is in the best position to
safeguard his house, however peaceful his individual proclivities may
be, so too, if a nation is to defend its territory and its territorial
wealth against spoliation, it must be armed for that purpose.
For many years past Great Britain and France and other countries have
been sending missionaries to China to expound to the Chinese people
those sublime doctrines enunciated in the Sermon on the Mount. The
Chinese have diagnosed, from the acts of the European Powers generally
as well as from the actions of individual Europeans resident in China,
the precise value to be attached to Christianity. For purely defensive
purposes China will have almost immediately an Army which has been
effectively described by the _Times_ correspondent as being able to
relieve the European Powers of any anxiety respecting the integrity of
the Chinese Empire. People who have not visited the Far East, and who
entirely derive their opinions and information in regard thereto from
the newspapers, cannot possibly realise what effect the policy of the
European Powers has had upon nations like China and Japan. A
professedly Christian country like Great Britain going to war to force
the sale of opium on a people who did not want to be debauched; a
power like Germany annexing Kiaochao as a golgotha for two murdered
priests--proceedings such as these, and there have been many such
during the last forty or fifty years, have been taken seriously to
heart by the Far Eastern races, whether in China or Japan. All the
time the Occidental Powers, with a total lack of any sense of humour,
have persisted in sending missionaries to these people to inculcate
doctrines which are the very antitheses of the practices of European
nations to these people whom it is sought to convert. It would be, in
my opinion, nothing more than the outcome of eternal justice if this
great big, old, sleepy China, which has been for so many years pricked
and prodded and despoiled, were at length to take up arms for a great
revenge. But China, if my prevision be correct, is going to do nothing
of the kind. What she does mean to do is simply to keep China for the
Chinese. She is not, as so many persons imagined and still imagine
would be the case, going to be led as a powerful ox with a Japanese
driver. Chinese students are in hundreds in Japan, learning from that
country all that the Japanese have acquired from Europe. Young, alert,
capable men I found them without exception, sucking the brains of all
that is best in Japan precisely as the Japanese have sucked the brains
of all that is best in Europe for their own objects and to their own
advantage. The immediate danger in China seems, so far as I can judge,
to be that the anti-foreign feeling, which is undoubtedly intense
especially in the south of the Empire, may come to a head any day and
prematurely explode. The nincompoops and quidnuncs and newspaper men
ravenous for copy who prate about a "yellow peril" may, in this latter
fact, find some slight excuse for their blatant lucubrations. There is
no real "yellow peril." Poor old China, which has been so long
slumbering, is just rousing herself and making arrangements for
defence against the "white peril," materialistic civilisation, and
misrepresented Christianity.
The only "yellow peril" that I have been able to diagnose is the peril
to the trade of Europe and the United States of America with China--a
peril that appears to me to be imminent. That Japan intends to capture
a large, indeed the largest, proportion of that trade I am firmly
convinced. That she will succeed in effecting her object I have not
the slightest doubt. At the present moment only about 5 per cent. of
the imports into China are from Japan, the remainder being either from
India, Europe, or America. Situated in close contiguity to China,
having assimilated everything of importance not only in regard to the
employment but the manufacture of machinery from Europe and the United
States, possessing an industrious and intelligent population, Japan is
quite obviously in a magnificent position to supply China, and supply
her on much better terms, with the greater number of those commodities
which China now has to import either from Europe or America. Japan, as
I have said, intends to lay herself out to capture the major portion
of this trade; she is quite justified in doing so, and there is every
reason to suppose that she will attain her object.
That the Chinese students who have come to Japan and are flocking
there month by month in increasing numbers, with a thirst for
knowledge and a desire to assimilate all those Western influences and
ideas and aids that have placed Japan in her present prominent
position among the nations, when they, in due course, return to their
own country, will of a certainty exercise a considerable influence
therein, there can be no doubt. I also feel sure that Japan will
render considerable assistance to China in regard to the remodelling
and reorganisation of the Chinese Army and Navy. It is as certain as
anything in this uncertain world that before very many years have
elapsed the naval and military forces of China will undergo as great a
transformation as those of Japan have undergone. I believe, and I may
say that this belief is shared by a number of naval and military men
who have had practical opportunities for forming an opinion in the
matter, that the raw material existing in China for the making of an
effective and efficient Army and Navy is as good as that in Japan. We
know that the late General Gordon, who had excellent opportunities for
arriving at a sound conclusion in the matter, expressed himself in
glowing terms in regard to the capabilities of the Chinaman as a
soldier were he properly trained, organised, and officered. But that
China, any more than Japan, entertains ambitious military projects I
utterly disbelieve. The only aspiration of China as regards Europe
is--to be let alone. She fears, as she has every reason to fear,
European aggression. She has had ample experience in the past that the
flimsiest pretexts have been utilised for the purpose of filching her
territory and exacting from her pecuniary fines under the name of
indemnities. We know by a recent incident that the indemnity exacted
from China by this country in respect of the Boxer rebellion was not
really required for the ostensible purposes for which it was imposed.
A large proportion of it lay at the Bank of England unappropriated,
and eventually was attached by a rapacious Chancellor of the Exchequer
for the purpose of alleviating the burdens of the British taxpayer.
China is determined to have no more incidents such as this in the
future, and the Russo-Japanese War has given her occasion for serious
thought in the matter as well as pointed an obvious moral. As a result
of her cogitations, she has concluded that the most effective means
she can take in the direction of preserving the inviolability of her
territory and preventing the exaction of periodical monetary tributes
on the part of foreign Powers, is to establish a strong and efficient
Army and Navy. As a matter of fact, I consider that in so determining
China is acting not only in her own interests, but in the interests of
the Great Powers of Europe.
Not very many years ago that excellent sailor, Lord Charles Beresford,
wrote a book entitled, somewhat too previously, "The Break-up of
China." In selecting a title for his work Lord Charles without doubt
voiced the opinion prevalent, not only in this country but in Europe,
at the time he wrote it. The statesmen of nearly all the foreign
Powers then seemed to have arrived at the conclusion that the scramble
for China was imminent and, utilising their experience from what took
place when the scramble for Africa was effected twenty years ago, they
began apportioning in advance the territory that ought to fall to
their lot. In this matter, however, they were wofully mistaken; the
diplomatic physicians of the world may have diagnosed the symptoms
quite accurately, but the patient surprised them all in regard to the
course of the disease and her recuperative powers. There will be no
"break-up" of China, and consequently we are not likely to witness any
scramble for China. There has undoubtedly been an awakening of China,
an awakening to her danger, to a sense of the extent to which her
interests were imperilled. She wants, as I have said, to be severely
left alone, and she is determined as far as possible to effect that
consummation. The men of light and leading in China know perfectly
well that they cannot now, even if they would, shut their country
against European trade, European residents, European visitors. They
are prepared to accept all these, but they will not have European
interference. China is determined to work out her own destiny or
salvation, call it which you will, and Japan is both willing and
anxious to give her all possible assistance in that direction. The
"yellow peril" bogey is, in my opinion, the silliest and most absurd
cry that has ever been put forward by responsible persons.