THE GROWTH OF POPULATION
Mass is a factor in the survival of a social group. Other things being
equal, that society will stand the best chance of surviving which has
the largest population. Moreover, the larger the mass of a given group
the greater can be the industrial and cultural division of labor in that
group. Hence, other things being equal, a large population favors the
growth not only of a higher type of industry, but also of a higher type
of culture or civilization in a given society. The questions which
center around the growth of population, therefore, are among the most
important questions which sociology has to deal with.
The growth of population is, of course, more or less indirectly
connected with the family life, since the growth of population in the
world as a whole is dependent upon the surplus of births over deaths.
But population has so long been looked at as a national question that
perhaps it will be best to study it from the standpoint of the national
group. The population of modern national groups, the influences which
augment and deter the growth of the population of these groups, and the
laws of population in general, will be what will concern us in this
chapter.
Population Statistics of Some Modern Nations.--The following table of
statistics will show the status of the populations of the largest
nations of Europe and America in the nineteenth century:
Population, Population, Increase per
1801. 1901. Year, per cent.
Russia (in Europe) ... 40,000,000 106,159,000 1.36
Germany .............. 24,000,000 56,367,000 1.39
France ............... 26,800,000 38,961,000 0.12
Great Britain and
Ireland .............. 16,300,000 41,605,000 1.21
Austria .............. 25,000,000 45,310,000 0.91
Italy ................ 17,500,000 32,449,000 0.73
Spain ................ 10,500,000 18,000,000 0.32
United States ........ 5,308,000 76,303,000 2.09
This table shows, that while the population of nearly all of these
nations has increased rapidly within the nineteenth century, that the
increase is relatively unequal in some cases. If we project Russia's
increase of population to the year 2000 A.D., we shall find that its
probable population will be in the neighborhood of 300,000,000;
Germany's probable population, say 167,000,000; Great Britain and
Ireland's probable population, 135,000,000; while France's probable
population in the year two thousand, if it continues to increase only at
its present slow rate, will be but 45,000,000. While these forecasts of
population cannot be considered certain in any sense, still they are
sufficient to show that the growth of modern nations in population is
relatively unequal. Inasmuch as the mere element of numbers is one of
the greatest factors for the future greatness of any nation, this is a
highly important matter. A nation of only 40,000,000 a century hence, it
is safe to say, will be no more important than Holland and Belgium are
now. On the other hand, it is very probable that a century hence the
civilized nations that lead in population will also lead in industrial
and cultural development. Many other factors, of course, enter into the
situation, but the factor of mere numbers should not be neglected, as
all practical statesmen recognize.
A century hence it is probable that the population of continental United
States will be about 300,000,000. It would be considerably more than
this if the present annual rate of increase were to continue, but
inasmuch as that is not likely, an estimate of 300,000,000 is
sufficiently high. [Footnote: The official estimate by the Census Bureau
is 200,000,000; but this for many reasons seems too low.] We have
already seen that it is probable that Russia's population may equal
300,000,000 by the year 2000. It seems probable, therefore, that the
United States and Russia may be the two great world powers a century
hence, particularly if Russia emerges from its present social and
political troubles and takes on fully Western civilization, while the
other nations may tend to ally themselves with the one or the other of
these great world powers. Of course, China is the _X_--the unknown
quantity--in the world's future. Should its immense population become
civilized and absorb Western ideas, this would certainly bring into the
theater of the world's political evolution a new and important factor.
The population and vital statistics of the various civilized countries
show:--
(1) The population of all civilized countries, with one or two
exceptions, has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the
nineteenth century. Previous to that time we have no statistics that are
reliable, but it seems probable that the population of Europe stood
practically stationary during the Middle Ages and increased only slowly
down to the nineteenth century; but during the nineteenth century the
population of the leading industrial nations has increased very rapidly.
This is due primarily, without doubt, to improved economic conditions,
which has made it possible for a larger population to subsist within a
given area. Back of these improved economic conditions, however, has
been increased scientific knowledge in ways of mastering physical
nature, and accompanying them has been a very greatly decreased death
rate, due in part at least to the advance of medical science.
(2) This increase in population has been due, not to an increase in
birth rate, but to a decreased death rate. During the nineteenth century
the death rate decreased markedly in practically all civilized
countries. As we have already noted, this is due primarily to improved
living conditions, particularly in the food, clothing, and shelter for
the masses, but it has also been due in no small part to the advance in
medical science, and especially that branch of it which we know as
"public sanitation." Because the death rate decreases with improved
material, and probably also with improved moral conditions, it is a
relatively good measure, at least of the material civilization or
progress of a people. We may note that the death rate is measured by the
number of deaths that occur annually per thousand in a given population.
The death rate of the countries most advanced in sanitary science and in
industrial improvement apparently tends to go down to about fifteen or
sixteen per thousand annually.
(3) The birth rate of civilized countries has also fallen markedly
during the nineteenth century, especially during the latter half. On the
whole, this is a good thing. The birth rate should decrease with the
death rate. This leaves more energy to be used in other things; but when
the birth rate falls more rapidly than the death rate or falls beyond a
certain point, it is evident that the normal growth of a nation is
hindered, and even its extinction may be threatened. While an
excessively high birth rate is a sign of low culture on the whole, on
the other hand an excessively low birth rate is a sign of physical and
probably moral degeneracy in the population. When the birth rate is
lower than the death rate in a given population, it is evident that the
population is on the way to extinction. In order that a birth rate be
normal, therefore, it must be sufficiently above the death rate to
provide for the normal growth of the population. On the whole, it seems
safe to conclude that we have no better index of the vitality of a
people, that is, of their capacity to survive, than the surplus of
births over deaths. Such a surplus of births over deaths is also a
fairly trustworthy index of the living conditions of a population,
because if the living conditions are poor, no matter how high the birth
rate may be, the death rate will be correspondingly high, and the
surplus of births over deaths, therefore, relatively low.
Vital statistics are, therefore, an indication of more than the mere
health or even the material condition of a given population. Probably
there are no social facts from which we may gather a clearer insight
into the social conditions of a given population than vital statistics.
Without going into the vital statistics of modern nations in any detail,
the following table of birth rates and death rates will serve to
illustrate the decrease in the death rates and the birth rates of the
three leading European nations, the birth rate being computed the same
as the death rate, that is, the number of births per thousand annually
of the population:
DEATH RATE
1871-1890 1893-1902 1904
England ................... 20.3 17.6 16.2
Germany ................... 26.0 21.5 19.6
France .................... 22.8 20.8 19.4
BIRTH RATE
1871-1890 1893-1902 1904
England ................... 34.0 29.3 28.0
Germany ................... 38.1 35.9 35.2
France .................... 24.6 22.8 20.9
From the above table it is evident that while birth rates and death
rates have been declining in all civilized peoples, the decline has been
unequal in different peoples. Both England and Germany in the above
table show still a good surplus of births over deaths; in the case of
England in 1904 this surplus being 11.8 per thousand of the population
annually, while in the case of Germany it was 15.6. In the case of
France, however, the surplus of births over deaths for a number of years
has been very insignificant, and in the year 1907 there were actually
about 20,000 more deaths than births in all France (773,969 births
against 793,889 deaths). France's population has, therefore, been
practically stationary for a number of years, while within the last year
or two it seems to be actually declining.
The causes of the stationary population of France are probably mainly
economic, although all the factors which influence the family life in
any degree must also influence birth rate. For a number of years the
economic conditions of France have not been favorable to the growth of a
large population, and at the same time the law necessitating the equal
division of the family's property among children has tended to encourage
small families. Unquestionably, however, other factors of a more general
social or moral nature are also at work in France as well as in all
other populations that are decreasing in numbers.
_The Decrease in the Native White Stock in the United States._
Certain classes in the United States also show a very slight surplus of
births over deaths and in some cases absolutely declining numbers. In
general the United States Census statistics seem to indicate that the
native white stock in the Northern states is not keeping up its numbers.
This is suggested by the decreasing size of the average family in the
United States. The average size of the family in the United States in
1850 was 5.6 persons; in 1860, 5.3; in 1870, 5.1; in 1880, 5.0; in 1890,
4.9; and in 1900, 4.7. Moreover, if we include only private families in
1900, the average size of the family was only 4.6. Thus, between 1850
and 1900 the size of the average family in the United States decreased
by nearly one full person. This decrease is most evident in the North
Atlantic and North Central states. In Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire,
for example, the average size of the family in 1900 was 4.1 persons.
Moreover, the vital statistics kept by the state of Massachusetts for a
number of years show conclusively that the native white stock in that
state is tending to die out. In 1896, for example, in Massachusetts the
native born had a birth rate of only 16.58, while the foreign born had a
birth rate of 50.40. Again, the following table of birth rates and death
rates for 1890 in the city of Boston [Footnote: Taken from Bushee's
_Ethnic Factors in the Population of Boston_, Publications American
Economic Association, Vol. IV., No, 2, 1903.] for the native born and
sections of the foreign born shows conclusively that the native-born
element is not keeping up its numbers:
Birth Rate Death Rate
Native born ..................... 16.40 17.20
Irish ........................... 45.60 25.20
Germans ......................... 48.00 15.00
Russian Jews .................... 94.60 15.90
Italians ........................ 104.60 25.30
It is evident from this table that the foreign born are increasing in
Boston very rapidly in numbers through birth, while the native born are
apparently not even holding their own. The high birth rate of the
foreign born is, of course, in part to be explained through the fact
that the foreign-born population is made up for the most part of
individuals in the prime of life, that is, in the reproductive age.
Nevertheless, while this explains the excessively high birth rate of
some of these foreign elements, it does not explain the great
discrepancy between their birth rate and that of the native born. If the
present tendencies continue, it is apparently not difficult to foresee a
time in the not very distant future when the old Puritan New England
families will be replaced in the population of Boston entirely by the
descendants of recent immigrants.
Moreover, so far as vital statistics concerning different classes can be
gathered in the northern tier of the states, practically everywhere the
same tendencies are manifest, that is, everywhere we find the
native-born white population failing to hold its own alongside of the
more recent immigrants. Apparently, therefore, we must conclude that the
birth rate in the native whites in the United States is declining to
such an extent that that element in our population threatens to become
extinct if present tendencies continue. Only the Southern whites present
an exception to this generalization. The Southern white people, from
various causes not well understood,--partially, perhaps, from family
pride, partially, perhaps, from racial instinct, but even more probably
on account of certain economic conditions,--keep up their numbers,
increasing more rapidly even than the negro population which exists
alongside of them.
_Causes of the Decrease in Birth Rate in the Native White Stock in the
United States._ What, then, are the causes of this decrease in the
birth rate of the native white stock in the United States? It is worth
our while to inquire briefly into these causes, for they illustrate the
factors which are at work in favoring or deterring the growth of
population.
(1) Economic conditions are without doubt mainly at the bottom of the
decreasing birth rate in the native white American population. Certain
unfavorable economic conditions have developed in this country of recent
years for this particular element; especially have higher standards of
living increased among the native white population in the United States
more rapidly than their income. This has led to later marriages and
smaller families. Again, more intense competition along all lines has
forced certain elements of the native stock into occupations where wages
are low in comparison with the standard of living. This has, perhaps,
especially come about through the increased competition which the
foreign born have offered to the native white element. The foreign born
have taken rapidly all the places which might be filled by unskilled
labor and many of the places filled by skilled labor. The native born
have shrunk from this competition and have retired for the most part to
the more socially honorable occupations, such as clerkships in business,
the professions, and the like. In many of these occupations, however, as
we have already said, the wages are low as compared with the standards
of living maintained by that particular occupational class; hence, as we
have already said, later marriages and fewer children. Rising standards
of living and rising costs of living have, therefore, impinged more
heavily upon the native born than upon the foreign born. It is difficult
to suggest a remedy for this condition of affairs. No legislator can
devise means of encouraging a class to have large families when by so
doing that class would necessarily have to sacrifice some of its
standards of living. However, it may be that the native born can be
protected to some extent from the competition of the foreign born
through reasonable restrictions upon immigration, and it may also be
that unreasonable advances in standards of living may be checked, but
both of these propositions seem to be of somewhat doubtful nature.
(2) No doubt the pressure of economic conditions is not responsible for
small families in some elements of the native white population in the
United States, for oftentimes the smallest families are found among the
wealthy, among whom there could be no danger of a large family lowering
the standards of living or pressing upon other economic needs. We must
accept as a second factor in the situation, therefore, the inherent
selfishness in human nature which is not willing to be burdened with the
care of children. In other countries, and apparently in all ages, the
wealthy have been characterized by smaller families than the poor. The
following table from Bertillon, [Footnote: Quoted by Newsholme, Vital
Statistics, p. 75.] showing the number of births per thousand women
between fifteen and fifty years of age in Paris, Berlin, and London
among the various economic classes, shows conclusively that it is not
altogether the pressure of economic wants which leads to the limiting of
a population:
BIRTHS PER THOUSAND WOMEN PER ANNUM
Paris Berlin London.
Very poor ....... 108 157 147
Poor ............ 95 129 140
Comfortable ..... 72 114 107
Rich ............ 53 63 87
Very rich ....... 34 47 63
(3) Besides economic conditions and individual selfishness we must
unfortunately add another cause of decreasing birth rate in our
population which has been definitely ascertained, and that is vice. Vice
cuts the birth rate chiefly through the diseases which accompany it.
About 20 per cent of American marriages are childless, and medical
authorities state that in one half of these childless marriages the
barrenness is due to venereal diseases. According to Dr. Prince A.
Morrow, in his _Social Diseases and Marriage_, 75 per cent of the
young men in the United States become impure before marriage. This
serves to disseminate venereal diseases among the general population,
especially among innocent women and children. The consequence is, on the
one hand, a considerable number of sterile marriages and on the other
hand a high infant mortality. It need not be assumed, as we have already
said, that vice is more prevalent to-day than in previous generations,
but on account of the conditions of our social life diseases which
accompany vice are now more widely disseminated than they have been at
any time in our previous history; therefore, even the physical results
of vice are different to-day than they were a generation or more ago.
(4) Education has been alleged as a cause of decreasing birth rate in
the native white American stock. This, however, is true only in a very
qualified sense. While it is a fact, as collected statistics have shown,
that if Harvard and other universities depended on children of their
alumni for students their attendance would actually decrease in numbers,
it is not true that college graduates have had a lower birth rate than
the economic and social classes to which they belong. So far as
statistics have been collected, indeed, they seem to indicate that the
wealthy uneducated are producing fewer children than the educated
classes who associate with them. The influence decreasing the birth rate
among the educated is, therefore, not education itself, but the high
standards of living and the luxury of the classes with whom they
associate.
On the other hand, the higher education of women seems to be, down to
the present time, operating as a distinct influence to lessen the birth
rate among the educated classes for the reason that apparently a
majority of educated women do not marry. The higher education has not
yet gone far enough, however, to give us any definite facts with which
to judge what the ultimate effect of woman's higher education will be.
If the higher education of woman is going to lead to a large per cent of
the best and most intellectual women in society leading lives of
celibacy, then, of course, ultimately the higher education of woman will
be disastrous to the race. But probably the relative infrequency of
marriage among women who are college graduates is a transitory
phenomenon due to the fact that neither women nor men are as yet
adjusted to the higher education of women.
(5) Some phases of the "woman's movement" have without doubt tended to
lessen the birth rate in certain sections of American society. Some of
the leaders of the woman's movement have advocated, for example, that
women should choose a single life, while others have advocated that
families should not have more than two children. Mrs. Ida Husted Harper,
indeed, has gone so far as to claim that if families would have but two
children this would be a cure-all for many social troubles. Indeed, this
ideal of two children in the family has been so widely disseminated in
this country that it is often spoken of as the "American Idea." Of
course, such teachings could not be without some effect. Without
attempting to reply to the advocates of this theory of but two children
to a family, it will be sufficient to remark that for a population
simply to remain stationary three children at least must be born to each
family on the average; otherwise, if only two children are born, as one
of the children is apt to die or fail to marry, the population will
actually decrease in numbers. Under the best modern conditions one out
of three children now born either fails to live to maturity or fails to
reproduce. There must be, therefore, more than three children born to
the average family for a population to grow. From the sociological point
of view the ideal family would seem to be one in which from three to six
children are born.
(6) Finally, not all of the childless and small families in the native
American stock are due by any means to voluntary causes, or even
involuntary causes of the kind that we have mentioned. There are also
certain other obscure physiological causes at work producing sterility
in American women. The sterility of American women is greater than that
of any other civilized population, even apart from the causes which have
just been mentioned. Some say this is due to physical deterioration in
the native white American stock, and there are other things which seem
to point in that direction. It may be, however, that this deterioration
is in no sense racial, but only individual, affecting certain
individuals who lead a relatively unnatural life. Our American
civilization puts a great strain upon certain elements of our
population, and this strain in many cases falls even more upon the women
than upon the men. The social life of the American people, in other
words, is oftentimes such as to produce exhaustion and physical
degeneracy, and this shows itself in the women of a population first of
all in sterility. It is evident that the remedy for this cause is a more
natural and more simple life on the part of all, if it is possible to
bring this about.
Thus, the causes which influence birth rate are evidently very complex.
In the main they are doubtless economic causes among all peoples, but
there is no reason to believe that these economic causes act alone in
determining birth rate, nor is there any reason to believe that the
other psychological and biological causes may be in any way derived from
the economic. So far as we can see, then, industrial conditions are
mainly responsible for the lessened birth rate in the native white
American stock. But mingled with these industrial conditions, operating
as causes, are certain psychological (or moral) and biological factors
that have to be considered as in the main independent. It is furthermore
evident that the causes which lead to the decline and extinction of any
population, whether civilized or uncivilized, are complex. All efforts
to explain the extinction of peoples of antiquity, or modern nature
peoples, such as the North American Indians and the Polynesians, through
any single set of causes, must be looked at as unscientific. It can
readily be shown that in all these cases the causes of the decline of
the birth rate and the ultimate extinction of the stock are numerous and
are not reducible to any single set of causes.
_Causes which Influence the Death Rate._ Before we can fully
understand the causes of the growth of a population, that is, of the
surplus of births over deaths, we must understand something also about
the things which influence the death rate as well as the things which
influence the birth rate, because, let it be borne in mind, the growth
of a given population (excluding immigration always) is due to the
combined working of these two factors.
Within certain limits the death rate is more easily controlled than the
birth rate. It is very difficult for society deliberately to set about
to increase the birth rate, but it is comparatively easy for it to take
deliberate measures to decrease the death rate, because all individuals
have a selfish interest in decreasing the death rate; but the increase
of the birth rate does not appeal to the self-interest of individuals.
Modern medical science, as we have seen, has done much to decrease the
death rate in civilized countries, and it promises to do even more.
Fifty years ago a death rate of fifty or sixty per thousand population
in urban centers was not unusual, but now a death rate of thirty to
forty in a thousand in the same communities is considered an intolerable
disgrace, and the time will shortly come, no doubt, when even a death
rate of twenty per thousand of the population will be considered
disgraceful to any community. As we have already seen, the normal death
rate of the most enlightened European and American communities tends to
establish itself around fifteen or sixteen.
Of course the sanitary and hygienic conditions which influence the death
rate are so numerous that we cannot enter into and discuss them. We can
only mention some of the more general social influences which are often
overlooked and are of particular interest to the sociologist.
(1) The effect of war upon the death rate, particularly of the
victorious, is not so great as many people suppose. Considerable wars
are apparently often waged without very greatly increasing the number of
deaths in a given population. This is, however, only true, as has
already been said, of the victorious side. With the defeated it is far
different. The death rate among the defeated in a modern war is
oftentimes very greatly raised, but this is due not so much to the large
number killed in battle as to the fact that the defeated have their
territory invaded, their industries disturbed, and their general
industrial and living conditions depressed. The vital statistics of
France and Germany in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-1871 illustrate
this point. In Germany the death rate in 1869, the year before the war,
was 28.5; in 1870, the first year of the war, 29; and in 1871, the
culminating year of the war, 31. These figures include the armies in the
field. For France, however, the defeated party, the figures were far
different. In 1869 the death rate in France was 23.4; in 1870, 28.3; in
1871, 34.8. Thus, while Germany had its death rate increased by the
Franco-Prussian War merely 2.5 per thousand of the population, France
had its death rate increased 11.4. From this it is plain that it is the
economic disturbances which accompany war, and particularly those which
are manifest among the defeated, which cause a very large part of the
higher death rate.
(2) As already implied, then, economic depression exercises a very
considerable influence upon death rate, particularly when economic
depression causes very high prices for the necessities of life and even
widespread scarcity of food. This cause produces far more deaths in
modern nations than war. The doubling of the price of bread in any
civilized country would be a far greater calamity than a great war.
While modern civilized peoples fear famine but little, there are many
classes in the great industrial nations that live upon such a narrow
margin of existence that the slightest increase in the cost of the
necessities of life means practically the same as a famine to these
classes. Statistics, therefore, of all modern countries, and
particularly of all great cities, show an enormous increase in sickness
and death among the poorer classes in times of economic depression.
(3) Climate and season are rather constant factors in the death rate of
all communities. The rule here is that in northern countries the death
rate is higher in winter, while in southern countries and in great
cities the death rate is higher in summer. Taking 100 as an arbitrary
standard, in Sweden in February deaths rise to 113, in August they go
down to 79; while in Italy in February deaths are at 106 as compared
with the standard, and in August at 111,--the period of minimum death
rate in Italy being in the spring and autumn. In a great city like
Berlin, if 100 be taken as the standard, deaths are 88 in February and
144 in August, owing very largely to the higher death rate of children
in the summer months in great cities.
(4) The biological fact of sex also influences death rate. Males in
general are shorter-lived than females. This is in part due to the fact
that in human populations men are more exposed to the dangers of
industry in earning a livelihood, while women are more secluded in the
home. But this does not explain entirely the discrepancy in the death
rate of the two sexes, for boy babies under the same conditions die more
frequently than girl babies. As we have already seen, the female
organism is the more stable, biologically, and hence females, while
having less physical strength, have more vitality than males. In Great
Britain the death rate (1872-1880) for the males was 22.7 per thousand
of the male population annually, while the death rate for the females
was 20.2 per thousand of their population annually.
(5) Conjugal condition is also a factor which affects death rate. The
differences between the death rates of the married and unmarried have
long been noted. The following table of the death rates of males and
females of different conjugal classes between the ages of forty and
fifty years (in Germany, 1876-1880), taken from Professor Mayo-Smith's
_Statistics and Sociology_, illustrates this:
Single males ....................... 26.5 per thousand
Married males ...................... 14.2 " "
Widowed males ...................... 29.9 " "
Single females ..................... 15.4 " "
Married females .................... 11.4 " "
Widows ............................. 13.4 " "
It will be seen from these figures that the death rate among the single
is in all the more advanced years of life higher than among the married.
The probable explanation of this, however, is not that the married state
is better physiologically, as has been so often claimed, but that it is
better socially. These figures are a testimony, in other words, to the
social advantages of the home. Single persons, particularly in the more
advanced years of life, who are without homes, are more liable to fall
sick, and when sick are less liable to receive proper care. That these
figures show the great social advantage of the home in preserving life
is evident from the fact that among the widowed males, whose homes have
been broken up, the death rate is higher even than among the single
males. Moreover, in interpreting such statistics we must bear in mind
that the unmarried in the higher ages of life are made up very often of
those who are relatively abnormal, either physically or mentally, that
is, of the biologically unfit. Inasmuch as the single persons include
many of this class, and also lack the comforts of home, it is not
surprising that the death rate is much higher among them.
(6) Infantile mortality is one of the most interesting phases of vital
statistics. We have already said that the death rate is a good rough
measure of a people's civilization. Even more can we say that the death
rate among children, particularly those under one year of age, is an
index to a people's sanitary and moral condition. Taking the world as a
whole, it is still estimated that one half of all who are born die
before the age of five years. This represents an enormous waste of
energy. Even in many of the most civilized countries the death rate
among children, and especially among infants under one year of age, is
still comparatively high. Most of this death rate is unnecessary, could
be avoided, and, as we have already said, represents a waste of life.
Dr. Newman [Footnote: In his work on _Infant Mortality_.] gives the
following statistics for different civilized countries for the ten-year
period of 1894-1903. These statistics, we may note, are based on the
percentage of deaths among children under one year of age and not upon
the one thousand of their population. In Russia, 27 per cent of all
children born during the ten-year period of 1894-1903 died the first
year; in Germany, 19.5 per cent; in Italy, 17 per cent; in France, 15.5
per cent; in England, 15 per cent; in Ireland, 10 per cent; in Norway,
9.4 per cent; in New Zealand, 9.7 per cent; while in the United States
in 1900, according to the census, 16.2 per cent of all children born in
the registration area died the first year.
The Laws of the Growth of Population.--Can the growth of population be
reduced to any principle or law? This is a problem which has puzzled
social thinkers for a long time. Many have thought that the growth of
population can be reduced to one or more relatively simple laws, but we
have seen from analyzing the statistics of birth rate and death rate
that this is hardly probable. A formula that would cover the growth of
population would have to cover all of the variable causes influencing
birth rate and death rate and so entering into the surplus of births
over deaths. It is evident that these causes are too complex to be
reduced to any such formula among modern civilized peoples. In the
animal world and among uncivilized peoples, however, conditions are
quite different, and the growth of population is regulated by certain
very simple principles or laws. Thus it is probable that for centuries
before the whites came, the Indians of North America were stationary in
their population, for the reason that under their stationary condition
of culture a given area could support only so many people. In conditions
of savagery, and even of barbarism, therefore, we can lay down the
principle that population will increase up to the limit of food supply,
will stop there and remain stationary until food supply increases. This
is the condition which governs the growth of the population of all
animal species, and, as we have already said, of the savages and
barbarians among the human species. But among civilized men who have
attempted the control of physical nature, and to some extent even the
control of human nature, many other factors enter in to influence both
birth rate and death rate, and so the growth of the population.
Nevertheless, many social thinkers of the past have conceived, as has
already been said, that the growth of population might be reduced to
very simple and definite laws. Among the first who proposed laws
governing population was an English economist, Thomas Robert Malthus,
whose active career coincides with the first quarter of the nineteenth
century. In 1798 Malthus put forth a little book which he entitled _An
Essay on the Principle of Population as it affects the future
improvement of society_. This essay went through numerous editions
and revisions, and in it Malthus elaborated his famous economic theory
of the growth of population. Inasmuch as this theory of Malthus has been
the storm center of sociological and economic writers for the past one
hundred years, it is worth our while to note very briefly what Malthus's
theory was, and why it is inadequate as a scientific statement of the
laws governing the growth of population.
_Malthus's Theory of Population._ In the first edition of his essay
Malthus contended that population tends to increase in geometric ratio,
while food at best will increase only in arithmetical ratio; and that
this means that constant discrepancies between population and food
supply would appear, with the result that population would have to be
cut down to food supply. Later Malthus saw how crude this statement of
his theory was and abandoned any attempt at mathematical statement,
presenting substantially the following theory: (1) Population is
necessarily limited by food; (2) Population always increases where food
increases and tends to increase faster than food; (3) The checks that
keep population down to food supply may be classified as positive and
preventive. Positive checks are those which increase the death rate,
such as famine, poverty, vice, disease, and the like. Preventive checks
are those that decrease the birth rate, such as late marriage and
prudence in the birth of children. Inasmuch as Malthus believed that the
positive checks must always operate where the preventive checks did not,
he advocated the use of the preventive checks as the best means to
remedy human misery. The inherent tendency of population to outstrip
food supply, Malthus believed to be the main source of human misery in
all of its forms.
_Criticisms of Malthus's Theory._ (1) It is evident that Malthus's
theory applies only to a stationary society, that is, a non-progressive
society, because in a progressive society human invention and,
therefore, food supply, may far outstrip any increase of population.
This has been the case in practically all civilized countries during the
nineteenth century, where improvements in machinery and agriculture have
greatly increased the food supply. If it be replied that this increase
of food is but temporary, and that sooner or later Malthus's theory must
operate, then it may be said, on the other hand, that as yet we see no
limit of man's mastery over nature, and that apparently we are just
entering upon the stage of material progress. Moreover, so far as any
given country is concerned, wealth is potential food supply, and in the
United States during the last fifty years wealth has increased four
times as fast as the population. Malthus, of course, did not foresee the
inventions and agricultural progress of the nineteenth century. Still,
it is evident that his theory is a static one and cannot be made to
apply to any progressive society.
(2) Similarly, the theory makes no allowance for the increased
efficiency which may come with increased population, because increase of
population makes possible better coöperation. As we have already seen,
coöperation and division of labor in a society depend upon the size of
the group to a certain extent, that is, the larger the group there is
for organization the better can be the organization and division of
labor in that group. Every increase of population, therefore, opens up
new and superior ways of applying labor; and coöperation and the
division of labor make it possible for men to do more as a group than
they could possibly accomplish working as individuals. Improved means of
coöperation, therefore, operate very much the same way in human society
in controlling nature as new inventions.
(3) The theory of Malthus makes no allowance for the general law of
animal fertility, which is that as the rate of individual evolution
increases the rate of reproduction decreases. Of course, Malthus's
theory antedates this law of animal fertility, which was first stated by
Herbert Spencer. Some scientists declare that this law does not apply
within the human species, and it must be admitted that it is not yet
certain that it does. As we have already seen, however, the lower and
less individualized classes in human society reproduce much more rapidly
than the upper or more individualized classes. Increase of food supply,
of wealth, and so on, does not necessarily mean increase of population,
and the fatal error in Malthus's theory is that he assumes that wherever
food increases population always increases also.
(4) The overpopulation which Malthus feared, so far from being an evil,
has been shown by the labors of Darwin to be the condition essential to
the working of the process of natural selection in the human species.
Overpopulation, at least until artificial selection arrives, is not an
evil, but a good in human society. Without it there would not be
sufficient elimination of the unfit in human society to prevent
wholesale social degeneration. Even with artificial selection, however,
some overpopulation would be necessary for the working of any scheme of
selection. We must conclude, then, that Malthus's theory, either as an
explanation of the growth of modern populations or as an implied
practical ethical doctrine, is of no value whatever.
This is not saying, of course, that Malthus's theory may not have some
elements of truth in it. Undoubtedly Malthus's theory does apply to
stationary, non-progressive peoples, like savages and barbarians in
certain stages of culture, and also perhaps to certain classes in modern
society who fail to participate in modern social progress. But these
lower classes or elements in human society are constantly decreasing,
especially in America, where the tendency to individual improvement is
so marked. Again, Malthus's theory, so far as it depends upon the
economic law of diminishing returns in agriculture, has also certain
elements of truth in it, and in so far as it merely asserts that the
struggle for existence in human society is, in the last analysis, a
struggle for food. Finally, Malthus meant his theory chiefly as a
criticism of socialistic and communistic schemes, which would equalize
wealth and do away with competition in society. Unquestionably any such
scheme to equalize wealth and do away with competition in society would
result in the enormous increase of the lower and more brutal element of
society--those that have not yet participated in modern culture.
Malthus's theory as a criticism of socialistic schemes that would do
away with competition (this, however, does not apply to modern
scientific socialism) is unquestionably as good to-day as when it was
written.
Most modern economists and sociologists recognize the failure of Malthus
to formulate a successful theory of population, and so many have
attempted to form theories independent of Malthus; but it must be said
regarding most of these attempts that they have succeeded no better than
Malthus. For example, a French economist and sociologist, Arsène Dumont,
has formulated the theory that society is like a sponge so far as
population is concerned,--that it will take up just as many new
individuals as it has industrial room for, and that population will in
all cases expand to meet these increased economic opportunities.
Dumont's theory is that population will increase so far as what he calls
the power of social capilarity extends. The law of population is, then,
the capilarity of society. Where there are new economic opportunities
population will increase; where there are no new economic opportunities
there will be no increase. France has no new economic opportunities, so
the population will not increase. The same is true of certain classes in
the United States. This theory tries to make population depend even more
entirely upon economic conditions than Malthus's theory. At first it
appears more plausible than Malthus's theory, but this is probably
because it is more vague. Economic influences are powerful influences,
as we have already seen, in determining the growth of a population, but
they are not the only ones. The factors which make up the surplus of
births over deaths are so complex that they cannot possibly be lumped
together and called collectively economic conditions. Dumont's theory of
the growth of population has no more scientific value than Malthus's
theory.
In conclusion, we may say that we are unable to formulate any laws of
population which are worthy of the name of laws as yet, and it seems
probable that, while we may understand clearly enough the factors which
enter into the growth of population, we shall never be able to reduce
these factors to a single formula or law. Social phenomena are too
complex, we may here note, to reduce to simple formulas or laws as
physical phenomena are reduced. Indeed, it is doubtful whether laws
exist among social phenomena in the same sense in which they exist among
physical phenomena, that is, as fixed relations among variable forces.
Human society has in it another element than mechanical causation or
physical necessity, namely, the psychic factor, and this so increases
the complexity of social phenomena that it is doubtful if we can
formulate any such hard and fixed laws of social phenomena as of
physical phenomena. This is not saying, however, that social phenomena
cannot be understood and that there are not principles which are at work
with relative uniformity among them. It is only saying that the social
sciences, even in their most biological or physical aspects, cannot be
reduced to the same exactness as the physical sciences, though the
knowledge which they offer may be in practice just as trustworthy.
SELECT REFERENCES
_For brief reading:_
MAYO-SMITH, _Statistics and Sociology_, Chaps. IV-VIII.
BAILEY, _Modern Social Conditions_, Chaps. III-VI.
_For more extended reading:_
BONAR, _Malthus and his Work._
BOWLEY, _Elements of Statistics._
MALTHUS, _Essay on the Principle of Population._
NEWSHOLME, _Vital Statistics._