THE CHARACTER OF OUR NEXT WAR
The social necessity of maintaining the power of the nation to defend
itself, the political claims which the State puts forward, the strength
of the probable hostile combinations, are the chief factors which
determine the conditions of preparation for war.
I have already tried to explain and formulate the duties in the spheres
of policy and progress which our history and our national character
impose on us. My next task is to observe the possible military
combinations which we must be prepared to face.
In this way only can we estimate the dangers which threaten us, and can
judge whether, and to what degree, we can carry out our political
intentions. A thorough understanding of these hostile counter-movements
will give us a clear insight into the character of the next war; and
this war will decide our future.
It is not sufficient to know the military fighting forces of our
probable antagonists, although this knowledge constitutes the necessary
basis for further inquiry; but we must picture to ourselves the
intensity of the hostility with which we have to reckon and the probable
efficiency of oar enemies. The hostility which we must anticipate is
determined by the extent to which mutual political schemes and ambitions
clash, and by the opposition in national character. Our opinion as to
the military efficiency of our rivals must be based on the latest data
available.
If we begin by looking at the forces of the individual States and groups
of States which may be hostile to us, we have the following results:
According to the recent communications of the French Finance Minister
Klotz (in a speech made at the unveiling of a war memorial in Issoudan),
the strength of the French army on a peace footing in the year 1910
amounted in round figures to 580,000 men. This included the "Colonial
Corps," stationed in France itself, which, in case of war, belongs to
the field army in the European theatre of war, and the "Service
auxiliaire "--that is, some 30,000 non-efficients, who are drafted in
for service without arms. The entire war establishment, according to the
information of the same Minister, including field army and reserves,
consists of 2,800,000 men available on mobilization. A reduction from
this number must be made in event of mobilization, which French sources
put down at 20 per cent. The whole strength of the French field army and
reserves may therefore be reckoned at some 2,300,000.
To this must be added, as I rather from the same source, 1,700,000
Territorials, with their "reserve," from which a reduction of 25 per
cent., or roughly 450,000 men, must be made.
If it is assumed that, in case of war, the distribution of the arms will
correspond to that in peace, the result is, on the basis of the strength
of separate arms, which the Budget of 1911 anticipates, that out of the
2,300,000 field and reserve troops there must be assigned--to the
infantry, about 1,530.000; to the cavalry, about 230,000 (since a
considerable part of the reservists of these arms are employed in the
transport service); to the artillery, about 380,000; to the pioneers,
70,000: to train and administration services (trains, columns, medical
service, etc.), 90,000.
No further increase in these figures is possible, since in France 90 per
cent, of all those liable to serve have been called up, and the
birth-rate is steadily sinking. While in 1870 it reached 940,000 yearly,
it has sunk in 1908 to 790.000. Recourse already has been had to the
expedient of requiring smaller qualifications than before, and of
filling the numerous subsidiary posts (clerks, waiters, etc.) with less
efficient men, in order to relieve the troops themselves.
Under these conditions, it was necessary to tap new sources, and the
plan has been formed of increasing the troops with native-born Algerians
and Tunisians, in order to be able to strengthen the European army with
them in event of war. At the same time negroes, who are excellent and
trustworthy material, are to be enrolled in West Africa. A limited
conscription, such as exists in Tunis, is to be introduced into Algeria.
The black army is at first to be completed by volunteers, and
conscription will only be enforced at a crisis. These black troops are
in the first place to garrison Algeria and Tunis, to release the troops
stationed there for service in Europe, and to protect the white settlers
against the natives. Since the negroes raised for military service are
heathen, it is thought that they will be a counterpoise to the
Mohammedan natives. It has been proved that negro troops stand the
climate of North Africa excellently, and form very serviceable troops.
The two black battalions stationed in the Schauja, who took part in the
march to Fez, bore the climate well, and thoroughly proved their value.
There can be no doubt that this plan will be vigorously prosecuted, with
every prospect of success. It is so far in an early stage. Legislative
proposals on the use of the military resources offered by the native
Algerians and the West African negroes have not yet been laid before
Parliament by the Government. It cannot yet be seen to what extent the
native and black troops will be increased. The former Minister of War,
Messimy, had advocated a partial conscription of the native Algerians.
An annual muster is made of the Algerian males of eighteen years of age
available for military service. The Commission appointed for the purpose
reported in 1911 that, after the introduction of the limited service in
the army and the reserve, there would be in Algeria and Tunisia combined
some 100,000 to 120,000 native soldiers available in war-time. They
could also be employed in Europe, and are thus intended to strengthen
the Rhine army by three strong army corps of first-class troops, who, in
the course of years, may probably be considerably increased by the
formation of reserves.
As regards the black troops, the matter is different. France, in her
West African possessions combined, has some 16,000 negro troops
available. As the black population numbers 10,000,000 to 12,000,000,
these figures may be considerably raised.
Since May, 1910, there has been an experimental battalion of Senegalese
sharp-shooters in Southern Algeria, and in the draft War Budget for 1912
a proposal was made to transfer a second battalion of Senegalese to
Algeria. The conclusion is forced upon us that the plan of sending black
troops in larger numbers to Algeria will be vigorously prosecuted. There
is, however, no early probability of masses of black troops being
transported to North Africa, since there are not at present a sufficient
number of trained men available. The Senegalese Regiments 1, 2 and 3,
stationed in Senegambia, are hardly enough to replace and complete the
Senegalese troops quartered in the other African colonies of France.
Although there is no doubt that France is in a position to raise a
strong black army, the probability that black divisions will be
available for a European war is still remote. But it cannot be
questioned that they will be so some day.
Still less is any immediate employment of native Moroccan troops in
Europe contemplated. Morocco possesses very good native warriors, but
the Sultan exerts effective sovereignty only over a part of the
territory termed "Morocco." There cannot be, therefore, for years to
come any question of employing this fighting material on a large scale.
The French and Moroccan Governments are for the moment occupied in
organizing a serviceable Sultan's army of 20,000 men to secure the
command of the country and to release the French troops in Morocco.
The annexation of Morocco may for the time being mean no great addition
to military strength; but, as order is gradually established, the
country will prove to be an excellent recruiting depot, and France will
certainly use this source of power with all her accustomed energy in
military matters.
For the immediate future we have, therefore, only to reckon with the
reinforcements of the French European army which can be obtained from
Algeria and Tunisia, so soon as the limited system of conscription is
universally adopted there. This will supply a minimum of 120,000
men, and the tactical value of these troops is known to any who have
witnessed their exploits on the battlefields of Weissenburg and Wörth.
At least one strong division of Turcos is already available.
Next to the French army, we are chiefly concerned with the military
power of Russia. Since the peace and war establishments are not
published, it is hard to obtain accurate statistics; no information is
forthcoming as to the strength of the various branches of the service,
but the totals of the army may be calculated approximately. According to
the recruiting records of the last three years, the strength of the
Russian army on a peace footing amounts to 1,346,000 men, inclusive of
Cossacks and Frontier Guards. Infantry and sharp-shooters are formed
into 37 army corps (1 Guards, 1 Grenadiers, and 25 army corps in Europe;
3 Caucasian, 2 Turkistanian, and 5 Siberian corps). The cavalry is
divided into divisions, independent brigades, and separate independent
regiments.
In war, each army corps consists of 2 divisions, and is in round figures
42,000 strong; each infantry division contains 2 brigades, at a strength
of 20,000. Each sharp-shooter brigade is about 9,000 strong, the cavalry
divisions about 4,500 strong. On the basis of these numbers, we arrive
at a grand total of 1,800,000 for all the army corps, divisions,
sharp-shooter brigades, and cavalry divisions. To this must be added
unattached troops and troops on frontier or garrison duty, so that the
war strength of the standing army can be reckoned at some 2,000,000.
This grand total is not all available in a European theatre of war. The
Siberian and Turkistanian army corps must be deducted, as they would
certainly be left in the interior and on the eastern frontier. For the
maintenance of order in the interior, it would probably be necessary to
leave the troops in Finland, the Guards at St. Petersburg, at least one
division at Moscow, and the Caucasian army corps in the Caucasus. This
would mean a deduction of thirteen army corps, or 546,000 men; so that
we have to reckon with a field army, made up of the standing army,
1,454,000 men strong. To this must be added about 100 regiments of
Cossacks of the Second and Third Ban, which may be placed at 50,000 men,
and the reserve and Empire-defence formations to be set on foot in case
of war. For the formation of reserves, there are sufficient trained men
available to constitute a reserve division of the first and second rank
for each corps respectively. These troops, if each division is assumed
to contain 20,000 men, would be 1,480,000 men strong. Of course, a
certain reduction must be made in these figures. Also it is not known
which of these formations would be really raised in event of
mobilization. In any case, there will be an enormous army ready to be
put into movement for a great war. After deducting all the forces which
must be left behind in the interior, a field army of 2,000,000 men could
easily be organized in Europe. It cannot be stated for certain whether
arms, equipment, and ammunition for such a host can be supplied in
sufficient quantity. But it will be best not to undervalue an Empire
like Russia in this respect.
Quite another picture is presented to us when we turn our attention to
England, the third member of the Triple Entente.
The British Empire is divided from the military point of view into two
divisions: into the United Kingdom itself with the Colonies governed by
the English Cabinet, and the self-governing Colonies. These latter have
at their disposal a militia, which is sometimes only in process of
formation. They can be completely ignored so far as concerns any
European theatre of war.
The army of the parts of the Empire administered by the English Cabinet
divides into the regular army, which is filled up by enlistment, the
native troops, commanded by English officers, and the Territorial army,
a militia made up of volunteers which has not reached the intended total
of 300,000. It is now 270,000 strong, and is destined exclusively for
home defence. Its military value cannot at present be ranked very
highly. For a Continental European war it may be left out of account. We
have in that case only to deal with a part of the regular English army.
This is some 250,000 strong. The men serve twelve years, of which seven
are with the colours and five in the reserve. The annual supply of
recruits is 35,000. The regular reserve is now 136,000 strong. There is
also a special reserve, with a militia-like training, which is enlisted
for special purposes, so that the grand total of the reserve reaches the
figure of 200,000.
Of the regular English army, 134,000 men are stationed in England,
74,500 in India (where, in combination with 159,000 native troops, they
form the Anglo-Indian army), and about 39,000 in different
stations--Gibraltar, Malta, Egypt, Aden, South Africa, and the other
Colonies and Protectorates. In this connection the conditions in Egypt
are the most interesting: 6,000 English are stationed there, while in
the native Egyptian army (17,000 strong; in war-time, 29,000 strong)
one-fifth of the officers are Englishmen. It may be supposed that, in
view of the great excitement in the Moslem world, the position of the
English is precarious. The 11,000 troops now stationed in South Africa
are to be transferred as soon as possible to Mediterranean garrisons. In
event of war, a special division will, on emergency, be organized there.
For a war in Continental Europe, we have only to take into account the
regular army stationed in England. When mobilized, it forms the "regular
field army" of 6 infantry divisions, 1 cavalry division, 2 mounted
brigades and army troops, and numbers 130,000 men, without columns and
trains. The regular troops in the United Kingdom which do not form part
of the regular field army are some 100,000 strong. They consist of a
very small number of mobile units, foot artillery, and engineers for
coast defence, as well as the reserve formations. These troops, with
some 13,000 militia artillery and militia engineers, constitute the Home
Army, under whose protection the Territorial field army is completing
its organization. Months must certainly elapse before portions of this
army can strengthen the regular field army. At the most 150,000 men may
be reckoned upon for an English expeditionary force. These troops
compose at the same time the reserve of the troops stationed in the
Colonies, which require reinforcements at grave crises. This constitutes
the weak point in the British armament. England can employ her regular
army in a Continental war so long only as all is quiet in the Colonies.
This fact brings into prominence how important it will be, should war
break out, to threaten England in her colonial possessions, and
especially in Egypt.
Against the powerful hosts which the Powers of the Triple Entente can
put into the field, Germany can command an active army of 589,705 men
(on peace establishment, including non-commissioned officers) and about
25,500 officers; while Austria has an army which on a peace footing is
361,553 men and about 20,000 officers strong. The combined war strength
of the two States may be estimated as follows:
In Germany there were drafted into the army, including volunteers and
non-combatants, in 1892, 194,664 men; in 1909, 267,283 men; or on an
average for seventeen years, 230,975 men annually. This gives a total of
3,926,575 men. If we estimate the natural decrease at 25 per cent., we
have 2,944,931 trained men left. By adding the peace establishment to
it, we arrive at an estimated strength of 3,534,636, which the French
can match with about the same figures.
The annual enlistment in Austria amounts to some 135,000. Liability to
serve lasts twelve years, leaving out of account service in the
Landsturm. Deducting the three years of active service, this gives a
total of 1,215,000, or, after the natural decrease by 25 per cent.,
911,250 men. To this must be added the nine yearly batches of trained
Landsturm, which, after the same deductions, will come likewise to
911,250. The addition of the peace strength of the army will produce a
grand total of 2,184,053 men on a war footing; approximately as many as
Russia, after all deductions, can bring into the field in Europe.
In what numbers the existing soldiers would in case of war be available
for field formations in Germany and Austria is not known, and it would
be undesirable to state. It depends partly on the forces available,
partly on other circumstances winch are not open to public discussion.
However high our estimate of the new formations may be, we shall never
reach the figures which the combined forces of France and Russia
present. We must rather try to nullify the numerical superiority of the
enemy by the increased tactical value of the troops, by intelligent
generalship, and a prompt use of opportunity and locality. Even the
addition of the Italian army to the forces of Germany and Austria would
not, so far as I know, restore numerical equality in the field.
In France it has been thought hitherto that two or three army corps must
be left on the Italian frontier. Modern French writers [A] are already
reckoning so confidently on the withdrawal of Italy from the Triple
Alliance that they no longer think it necessary to put an army in the
field against Italy, but consider that the entire forces of France are
available against Germany.
[Footnote A: Colonel Boucher, "L'offensive contre l'Allemagne."]
The peace establishment of the Italian army amounts, in fact, to 250,000
men, and is divided into 12 army corps and 25 divisions. The infantry,
in 96 regiments, numbers 140,000; there are besides 12 regiments of
Bersaglieri, with which are 12 cyclist battalions and 8 Alpine regiments
in 78 companies. The cavalry consists of 29 regiments, 12 of which are
united in 3 cavalry divisions. The artillery has a strength of 24 field
artillery regiments and 1 mounted regiment of artillery, and numbers 193
field and 8 mounted batteries. Besides this there are 27 mountain
batteries and 10 regiments of garrison artillery in 98 companies.
Lastly, there are 6 engineer regiments, including a telegraph regiment
and an airship battalion. The Gendarmerie contains 28,000 men.
On a war footing the strength of the field army is 775,000. Some 70,000
men are enrolled in other formations of the first and second line. The
militia is some 390,000 strong. The strength of the reserves who might
be mobilized is not known. The field army is divided into 3 armies of 9
army corps in all, to which are added 8 to 12 divisions of the
Territorial army and 4 cavalry divisions.
As to colonial troops, Italy can command in Benadir the services of 48
officers and 16 non-commissioned officers of Italian birth, and 3,500
native soldiers; in Eritrea there are 131 officers, 644 non-commissioned
officers and privates of Italian birth, and 3,800 natives.
Italy thus can put a considerable army into the field; but it is
questionable whether the South Italian troops have much tactical value.
It is possible that large forces would be required for coast-defence,
while the protection of Tripoli, by no means an easy task, would claim a
powerful army if it is to be held against France.
The Turkish military forces would be of great importance if they joined
the coalition of Central European Powers or its opponents.
The regular peace establishment of the Turkish army amounts to 275,000
men. In the year 1910 there were three divisions of it:
I. The Active Army (Nizam):
Infantry 133,000
Cavalry 26,000
Artillery 43,000
Pioneers 4,500
Special troops 7,500
Train formations 3,000
Mechanics 3,000
A total, that is, of 220,000 men.
2. The Redif (militia) cadres, composed of infantry, 25,000 men. Within
this limit, according to the Redif law, men are enlisted in turns for
short trainings.
3. Officers in the Nizam and Redif troops, military employés, officials,
and others, more than 30,000.
The entire war strength of the Turkish army amounts to 700,000 men. We
need only to take into consideration the troops from Europe, Anatolia,
Armenia, and Syria. All these troops even are not available in a
European theatre of war. On the other hand, the "Mustafiz" may be
regarded as an "extraordinary reinforcement"; this is usually raised for
local protection or the maintenance of quiet and order in the interior.
To raise 30,000 or 40,000 men of this militia in Europe is the simplest
process. From the high military qualities of the Turkish soldiers, the
Turkish army must be regarded as a very important actor. Turkey thus is
a very valuable ally to whichever party she joins.
The smaller Balkan States are also able to put considerable armies into
the field.
Montenegro can put 40,000 to 45,000 men into the field, with 104 cannons
and 44 machine guns, besides 11 weak reserve battalions for frontier and
home duties.
Servia is supposed to have an army 28,000 strong on a peace footing;
this figure is seldom reached, and sinks in winter to 10,000 men. The
war establishment consists of 250,000 men, comprising about 165,000
rifles, 5,500 sabres, 432 field and mountain guns (108 batteries of 4
guns); besides this there are 6 heavy batteries of 4 to 6 cannons and
228 machine guns available. Lastly come the reserve formations (third
line), so that in all some 305,000 men can be raised, exclusive of the
militia, an uncertain quantity.
The Bulgarian army has a peace establishment of 59,820 men. It is not
known how they are distributed among the various branches of the
service. On a war footing an army of 330,000 is raised, including
infantry at a strength of 230,000 rifles, with 884 cannons, 232 machine
guns, and 6,500 sabres. The entire army, inclusive of the reserves and
national militia, which latter is only available for home service and
comprises men from forty-one to forty-six years of age, is said to be
400,000 strong.
Rumania, which occupies a peculiar position politically, forms a power
in herself. There is in Rumania, besides the troops who according to
their time of service are permanently with the colours, a militia
cavalry called "Calarashi" (intelligent young yeomen on good horses of
their own), whose units serve intermittently for short periods.
In peace the army is composed of 5,000 officers and 90,000 men of the
permanent establishment, and some 12,000 serving intermittently. The
infantry numbers some 2,500 officers and 57,000 men, the permanent
cavalry (Rosiori) some 8,000 men with 600 officers, and the artillery
14,000 men with 700 officers.
For war a field army can be raised of some 6,000 officers and 274,000
men, with 550 cannons. Of these 215,000 men belong to the infantry,
7,000 to the cavalry, and 20,000 to the artillery. The cavalry is
therefore weaker than on the peace footing, since, as it seems, a part
of the Calarashi is not to be employed as cavalry. Inclusive of reserves
and militia, the whole army will be 430,000 strong. There are 650,000
trained men available for service.
Although the Balkan States, from a military point of view, chiefly
concern Austria, Turkey, and Russia, and only indirectly come into
relations with Germany, yet the armies of the smaller Central European
States may under some circumstances be of direct importance to us, if
they are forced or induced to take part with us or against us in a
European war.
Of our western neighbours, Switzerland and Holland come first under
consideration, and then Belgium.
Switzerland can command, in case of war, a combined army of 263,000 men.
The expeditionary force, which is of first importance for an offensive
war, consists of 96,000 infantry and 5,500 cavalry, with 288 field guns
and 48 field howitzers (the howitzer batteries are in formation), a
total of 141,000 men.
The Landwehr consists of 50.000 infantry and 4,000 cavalry, with 36
12-centimetre cannons belonging to foot artillery. It has a total
strength of 69,000 men. The Landsturm finally has a strength of 53,000
men.
The Dutch army has a peace establishment averaging 30,000 men, which
varies much owing to the short period of service. There are generally
available 13,000 infantry, 3,000 cavalry, 5,000 field artillery, 3,400
garrison artillery, and I,400 engineers, pontonniers, and transport
troops. The field army in war is 80,000 strong, and is made up of 64,000
infantry, cyclist, and machine-gun sections, 2,600 cavalry, 4,400
artillery, and goo engineers. It is formed into 4 army divisions each of
15 battalions, 4 squadrons, 6 batteries, and 1 section engineers. There
is, further, a garrison army of 80,000 men, which consists of 12 active
and 48 Landwehr infantry battalions, 44 active and 44 Landwehr foot
artillery companies, and 10 companies engineers and pontonniers,
including Landwehr. The Dutch coast also is fortified. At Holder,
Ymuiden, Hook of Holland, at Völkerack and Haringvliet there are various
outworks, while the fortifications at Flushing are at present
unimportant. Amsterdam is also a fortress with outlying fortifications
in the new Dutch water-line (Fort Holland).
Holland is thus well adapted to cause serious difficulties to an English
landing, if her coast batteries are armed with effective cannons. It
would easily yield to a German invasion, if it sided against us.
Belgium in peace has 42,800 troops available, distributed as follows:
26,000 infantry, 5,400 cavalry, 4,650 field artillery, 3,400 garrison
artillery, 1,550 engineers and transport service.
On a war footing the field army will be 100,000 strong, comprising
74,000 infantry, 7,250 cavalry, 10,000 field artillery, 1,900 engineers
and transport service, and is formed into 4 army divisions and 2 cavalry
divisions. The latter are each 20 squadrons and 2 batteries strong; each
of the army divisions consists nominally of 17 battalions infantry, 1
squadron, 12 batteries, and 1 section engineers. In addition there is a
garrison army of 80,000, which can be strengthened by the _garde
civique_, Antwerp forms the chief military base, and may be regarded as
a very strong fortress. Besides this, on the line of the Maas, there are
the fortified towns of Liege, Huy, and Namur. There are no coast
fortifications.
Denmark, as commanding the approaches to the Baltic, is of great
military importance to us. Copenhagen, the capital, is a strong
fortress. The Army, on the other hand, is not an important factor of
strength, as the training of the units is limited to a few months. This
State maintains on a peace footing some 10,000 infantry, 800 cavalry,
2,300 artillery, and 1,100 special arms, a total of 14,200 men; but the
strength varies between 7,500 and 26.000. In war-time an army of 62,000
men and 10,000 reserves can be put into the field, composed numerically
of 58,000 infantry, 3,000 cavalry, 9,000 artillery, and 2,000 special
arms.
Sweden can command eight classes of the First Ban, which comprises units
from twenty-one to twenty-eight years of age, and is 200,000 strong, as
well as four classes of the Second Ban, with a strength of 90,000, which
is made up of units from twenty-eight to thirty-two years of age. There
are also available 30,000 trained volunteers, students and ex-students
from twenty-one to thirty-two years of age.
The eight classes of the Landsturm are 165,000 men strong. It can,
accordingly, be roughly calculated what field army can be raised in case
of war. The entire First Ban certainly comes under this head.
In Greece, which does not signify much for a European war, but might in
combination with the small Balkan States prove very troublesome to
Turkey, and is therefore important for us, an active army of 146,000 men
can be put into the field; there are besides this 83,000 men in the
Landwehr and 63,000 men in the Landsturm.
Spain has a peace army of 116,232 men, of whom 34,000 are permanently
stationed in Africa. In war she can raise 327,000 men (140,000 active
army, 154,000 garrison troops, 33,000 gendarmerie). The mobilization is
so badly organized that at the end of a month 70,000 to 80,000 men could
at most be put into the field.
As regards the naval forces of the States which concern us to-day, the
accompanying table, which is taken from the _Nauticus_ of 1911, affords
a comparative epitome, which applies to May, 1911. It shows that,
numerically, the English fleet is more than double as strong as ours.
This superiority is increased if the displacements and the number of
really modern ships are compared. In May we possessed only four
battleships and one armed cruiser of the latest type; the English have
ten ships-of-the-line and four armed cruisers which could be reckoned
battleships. The new ships do not materially alter this proportion. The
comparative number of the ships-of-the-line is becoming more favourable,
that of the armoured cruisers will be less so than it now is. It may be
noticed that among our cruisers are a number of vessels which really
have no fighting value, and that the coast-defence ironclads cannot be
counted as battleships. France, too, was a little ahead of us in the
number of battleships in May, 1911, but, from all that is hitherto known
about the French fleet, it cannot be compared with the German in respect
of good material and trained crews. It would, however, be an important
factor if allied with the English.
|Battle- |Armoured |Armoured| Armoured |Protected |Number |N S
Nation. |ships |Coast |Gunboats| Cruisers |Cruisers |of |u u
|above |Defence |and | | |Torpedo |m b
|5,000 |Vessels |Armoured| | |Vessels |b m
|Tons. |from |Ships | | | |e a
| |3000 Tons|under | | | |r r
| |to 5,000 |3,000 | | | | i
| |Tons |Tons | | | | i
+--+-------+--+------+--+-----+--+-------+--+-------+----+----+o n
|No|Displ. |No|Displ.|No|Displ|No|Displ. |No|Displ. | |From|f e
| | | | | | | | | | |200+|80- | s
| | | | | | | | | | |Tons| 200|
| | | | | | | | | | | |Tons|
---------+--+-------+--+------+--+-----+--+-------+--+-------+----+----+---
GERMANY: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |25|332,410| 5|20,600| -| --- |10|114,590|33|122,130| 117| 70| 12
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building|12| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 4| --- | 7| --- | 14| -- | --
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
ENGLAND: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |50|793,260| -| --- | -| --- |38|484,970|66|333,540| 223| 36| 53
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building|12|286,640| -| --- | -| --- | 6|145,320|20|101,320| 51| -- | 19
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
FRANCE: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |22|314,930| -| --- | -| --- |22|214,670|10| 50,780| 71| 191| 52
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 4| 93,880| -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 13| -- | 19
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
ITALY: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready | 8| 96,980| -| --- | -| --- |10| 79,530| 4| 10,040| 53| 39| 7
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 4| 84,000| -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 3| 10,200| 14| 28| 13
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
AUSTRIA- | | | | | | | | | | | | |
HUNGARY | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |11|102,620| -| --- | -| --- | 3| 18,870| 4| 10,590| 18| 66| 7
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 5| 94,500| -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 3| --- | 6| -- | --
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
RUSSIA: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Baltic | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Fleet | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready | 4| 62,300| -| --- | 1|1,760| 6| 64,950| 4| 27,270| 60| 19| 13
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 8| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 1| -- | 1
Black Sea| | | | | | | | | | | | |
Fleet | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready | 6| 72,640| -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 3| 13,620| 17| 10| 4
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 4| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 14| -- | 7
Siberian | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Fleet |--| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 2| 9,180| 20| 7| 13
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
UNITED | | | | | | | | | | | | |
STATES: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |30|434,890| 4|13,120| -| --- |14|181,260|16| 65,270| 40| 28| 19
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 7|190,000| -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 14| -- | 20
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
JAPAN: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |13|194,690| 2| 8,540| -| --- |13|139,830|12| 49,170| 59| 49| 12
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 3| --- | -| --- | -| --- | 4|107,120| 3| 15,000| 2| -- | 1
---------+--+-------+--+------+--+-----+--+-------+--+-------+----+----+---
Let us assume that in event of war England as well as France must leave
a certain naval force in the Mediterranean, which need not be stronger
than the combined Italian and Austrian fleets, but might be smaller, in
event of a change in the grouping of the States; let us further assume
that numerous cruisers will be detained at the extra-European
stations--the fact, however, remains that England and France together
can collect against Germany in the North Sea a fleet of battleships
alone three times as strong as that of Germany, and will be supported by
a vastly superior force of torpedo-vessels and submarines. If Russia
joins the alliance of these Powers, that would signify another addition
to the forces of our opponents which must not be underestimated, since
the Baltic Fleet in the spring of 1911 contained two large battleships,
and the Baltic fleet of cruisers is always in a position to threaten our
coasts and to check the free access to the Baltic. In one way or the
other we must get even with that fleet. The auxiliary cruiser fleet of
the allies, to which England can send a large contingent, would also be
superior to us.
As regards _matériel_ and training, it may be assumed that our fleet is
distinctly superior to the French and Russian, but that England is our
equal in that respect. Our ships' cannons will probably show a
superiority over the English, and our torpedo fleet, by its reckless
energy, excellent training, and daring spirit of adventure, will make up
some of the numerical disadvantage. It remains to be seen whether these
advantages will have much weight against the overwhelming superiority of
an experienced and celebrated fleet like the English.
Reflection shows that the superiority by sea, with which we must under
certain circumstances reckon, is very great, and that our position in
this respect is growing worse, since the States of the Triple Entente
can build and man far more ships than we can in the same time.
If we consider from the political standpoint the probable attitude of
the separate States which may take part in the next war against Germany,
we may assume that the intensity of the struggle will not be the same in
every case, since the political objects of our possible antagonists are
very different.
If we look at France first, we are entitled to assume that single-handed
she is not a match for us, but can only be dangerous to us as a member
of a coalition. The tactical value of the French troops is, of course,
very high; numerically the army of our neighbour on the west is almost
equal, and in some directions there may be a superiority in organization
and equipment; in other directions we have a distinct advantage. The
French army lacks the subordination under a single commander, the united
spirit which characterizes the German army, the tenacious strength of
the German race, and the _esprit de corps_ of the officers. France, too,
has not those national reserves available which would allow us almost to
double our forces. These are the conditions now existing. But if the
French succeed in making a large African army available for a European
theatre, the estimate of strength of the French army as compared with
ours will be quite different. This possibility must be borne in mind,
for, according to the whole previous development of affairs, we may
safely assume that France will leave no stone unturned to acquire, if
only for a time, a military superiority over Germany. She knows well
that she cannot reach her political goal except by a complete defeat of
her eastern neighbour, and that such a result can only be obtained by
the exercise of extraordinary efforts.
It is certain that France will not only try to develop her own military
power with the utmost energy, but that she will defend herself
desperately if attacked by Germany; on the other hand, she will probably
not act on the offensive against Germany unless she has increased her
own efficiency to the utmost limit, and believes that she has secured
the military supremacy by the help of active allies. The stakes are too
high to play under unfavourable conditions. But if France thinks she has
all the trumps in her hands, she will not shrink from an offensive war,
and will stake even thing in order to strike us a mortal blow. We must
expect the most bitter hostility from this antagonist. Should the Triple
Alliance break up--as seems probable now--this hour will soon have
struck.[B] If the war then declared be waged against us in combination
with England, it may be assumed that the allied Great Powers would
attempt to turn our strategical right flank through Belgium and Holland,
and penetrate into the heart of Germany through the great gap in the
fortresses between Wesel and Flushing. This operation would have the
considerable advantage of avoiding the strong line of the Rhine and
threatening our naval bases from the land side. From the superiority of
the combined Anglo-French fleet, the army of invasion could without
difficulty have its base on our coasts. Such an operation would
enormously facilitate the frontal attack on our west frontier, and would
enable the French to push a victorious advance onward to the Rhine,
after investing Metz and Diedenhofen.
[Footnote B: Written in October, 1911.]
England, with whose hostility, as well with that of the French, we must
reckon, could only undertake a land war against us with the support of
an ally who would lead the main attack. England's troops would only
serve as reinforcements; they are too weak for an independent campaign.
English interests also lie in a quite different field, and are not
coincident with those of France.
The main issue for England is to annihilate our navy and oversea
commerce, in order to prevent, from reasons already explained, any
further expansion of our power. But it is not her interest to destroy
our position as a Continental Power, or to help France to attain the
supremacy in Europe. English interests demand a certain equilibrium
between the Continental States. England only wishes to use France in
order, with her help, to attain her own special ends, but she will never
impose on herself sacrifices which are not absolutely necessary, for the
private advantage of her ally. These principles will characterize her
plan of campaign, if she sees herself compelled by the political
position and the interests of her naval supremacy to take part in a war
against us.
If England, as must be regarded probable, determines sooner or later on
this step, it is clearly to her advantage to win a rapid victory. In the
first place, her own trade will not be injured longer than necessary by
the war; in the second place, the centrifugal forces of her loosely
compacted World Empire might be set in movement, and the Colonies might
consult their own separate interests, should England have her hands tied
by a great war. It is not unlikely that revolutions might break out in
India and Egypt, if England's forces were long occupied with a European
war. Again, the States not originally taking part in the war might
interfere in our favour, if the decision were much delayed. It was
important for us in 1870-71 to take Paris quickly, in order to forestall
any interference of neutrals. Similar conditions might arise in the case
of England. We must therefore make up our minds that the attack by sea
will be made with the greatest and most persistent vigour, with the firm
resolve to destroy completely our fleet and our great commercial
centres. It is also not only possible, but probable, that England will
throw troops on the Continent, in order to secure the co-operation of
her allies, who might demand this guarantee of the sincerity of English
policy, and also to support the naval attack on the coast. On the other
hand, the land war will display the same kind of desperate energy only
so far as it pursues the object of conquering and destroying our naval
bases. The English would be the less disposed to do more than this
because the German auxiliaries, who have so often fought England's
battles, would not be forthcoming. The greatest exertions of the nation
will be limited to the naval war. The land war will be waged with a
definitely restricted object, on which its character will depend. It is
very questionable whether the English army is capable of effectively
acting on the offensive against Continental European troops. In South
Africa the English regiments for the most part fought very bravely and
stood great losses; on the other hand, they completely failed in the
offensive, in tactics as in operations, and with few exceptions the
generalship was equally deficient. The last manoeuvres on a large scale,
held in Ireland, under the direction of General French, did not,
according to available information, show the English army in a
favourable light so far as strategical ability went.
If we now turn our attention to the East, in order to forecast Russia's
probable behaviour, we must begin by admitting that, from a Russian
standpoint, a war in the West holds out better prospects of success than
a renewed war with Japan, and possibly with China. The Empire of the
Czar finds in the West powerful allies, who are impatiently waiting to
join in an attack on Germany. The geographical conditions and means of
communication there allow a far more rapid and systematic development of
power than in Manchuria. Public opinion, in which hatred of Germany is
as persistent as ever, would be in favour of such a war, and a victory
over Germany and Austria would not only open the road to Constantinople,
but would greatly improve the political and economic influence of Russia
in Western Europe. Such a success would afford a splendid compensation
for the defeats in Asia, and would offer advantages such as never could
be expected on the far-distant Eastern frontiers of the Empire.
Should Russia, then, after weighing these chances launch out into an
offensive war in the West, the struggle would probably assume a quite
different character from that, for example, of a Franco-German war.
Russia, owing to her vast extent, is in the first place secure against
complete subjugation. In case of defeat her centre of gravity is not
shifted. A Russian war can hardly ever, therefore, become a struggle for
political existence, and cause that straining of every nerve which such
a struggle entails. The inhabitants will hardly ever show self-devotion
in wars whose objects cannot be clear to them. Throughout the vast
Empire the social and also political education, especially among the
peasants, is so poor, that any grasp of the problems of a foreign policy
seems quite out of the question. The sections of the people who have
acquired a little superficial learning in the defective Russian schools
have sworn to the revolutionary colours, or follow a blind
anti-progressive policy which seems to them best to meet their
interests. The former, at least, would only make use of a war to promote
their own revolutionary schemes, as they did in the crisis of the
Russo-Japanese War. Under the circumstances, there can be little idea of
a united outburst of the national spirit which would enable an offensive
war to be carried on with persistent vigour. There has been an
extraordinary change in the conditions since 1812, when the people
showed some unanimity in repelling the invasion. Should Russia to-day be
involved in a Western war with Germany and Austria, she could never
bring her whole forces into play. In the first place, the revolutionary
elements in the heart of the State would avail themselves of every
weakening of the national sources of power to effect a revolution in
internal politics, without any regard for the interests of the
community. Secondly, in the Far East, Japan or China would seize the
moment when Russia's forces in the West were fully occupied to carry out
their political intentions towards the Empire of the Czar by force of
arms. Forces must always be kept in reserve for this eventuality, as we
have already mentioned.
Although Russia, under the present conditions, cannot bring her whole
power to bear against Germany and Austria, and must also always leave a
certain force on her European Southern frontier, she is less affected by
defeats than other States. Neither the Crimean War nor the greater
exertions and sacrifices exacted by her hard-won victory over the Turks,
nor the heavy defeats by the Japanese, have seriously shaken Russia's
political prestige. Beaten in the East or South, she turns to another
sphere of enterprise, and endeavours to recoup herself there for her
losses on another frontier.
Such conditions must obviously affect the character of the war. Russia
will certainly put huge armies into the field against us. In the wars
against Turkey and Japan the internal affairs of the Empire prevented
the employment of its full strength; in the latter campaign
revolutionary agitation in the army itself influenced the operations and
battles, and in a European war the same conditions would, in all
probability, make themselves emphatically felt, especially if defeats
favoured or encouraged revolutionary propaganda. In a war against
Russia, more than in any other war, _c'est le premier pas qui coûte_.
If the first operations are unsuccessful, their effect on the whole
position will be wider than in any other war, since they will excite in
the country itself not sympathetic feelings only, but also hostile
forces which would cripple the conduct of the war.
So far as the efficiency of the Russian army goes, the Russo-Japanese
War proved that the troops fight with great stubbornness. The struggle
showed numerous instances of heroic self-devotion, and the heaviest
losses were often borne with courage. On the other hand, the Russian
army quite failed on the offensive, in a certain sense tactically, but
essentially owing to the inadequacy of the commanders and the failure of
the individuals. The method of conducting the war was quite wrong;
indecision and irresolution characterized the Russian officers of every
grade, and no personality came forward who ever attempted to rise above
mediocrity. It can hardly be presumed that the spirit of Russian
generalship has completely changed since the defeats in Manchuria, and
that striking personalities have come on the stage. This army must
therefore always be met with a bold policy of attack.
When we contrast these conditions with the position of Germany, we
cannot blink the fact that we have to deal with immense military
difficulties, if we are to attain our own political ends or repel
successfully the attack of our opponents.
In the first place, the geographical configuration and position of our
country are very unfavourable. Our open eastern frontier offers no
opportunity for continued defence, and Berlin, the centre of the
government and administration, lies in dangerous proximity to it. Our
western frontier, in itself strong, can be easily turned on the north
through Belgium and Holland. No natural obstacle, no strong fortress, is
there to oppose a hostile invasion and neutrality is only a paper
bulwark. So in the south, the barrier of the Rhine can easily be turned
through Switzerland. There, of course, the character of the country
offers considerable difficulties, and if the Swiss defend themselves
resolutely, it might not be easy to break down their resistance. Their
army is no despicable factor of strength, and if they were attacked in
their mountains they would fight as they did at Sempach and Murten.
The natural approaches from the North Sea to the Baltic, the Sound and
the Great Belt, are commanded by foreign guns, and can easily fall a
prey to our enemies.
The narrow coast with which we face to the North Sea forms in itself a
strong front, but can easily be taken in the rear through Holland.
England is planted before our coasts in such a manner that our entire
oversea commerce can be easily blocked. In the south and south-east
alone are we secured by Austria from direct invasion. Otherwise we are
encircled by our enemies. We may have to face attacks on three sides.
This circumstance compels us to fight on the inner lines, and so
presents certain advantages; but it is also fraught with dangers, if our
opponents understand how to act on a correct and consistent plan.
If we look at our general political position, we cannot conceal the fact
that we stand isolated, and cannot expect support from anyone in
carrying out our positive political plans. England, France, and Russia
have a common interest in breaking down our power. This interest will
sooner or later be asserted by arms. It is not therefore the interest of
any nation to increase Germany's power. If we wish to attain an
extension of our power, as is natural in our position, we must win it by
the sword against vastly superior foes. Our alliances are defensive, not
merely in form, but essentially so. I have already shown that this is a
cause of their weakness. Neither Austria nor Italy are in any way bound
to support by armed force a German policy directed towards an increase
of power. We are not even sure of their diplomatic help, as the conduct
of Italy at the conference of Algeçiras sufficiently demonstrated. It
even seems questionable at the present moment whether we can always
reckon on the support of the members of the Triple Alliance in a
defensive war. The recent _rapprochement_ of Italy with France and
England goes far beyond the idea of an "extra turn." If we consider how
difficult Italy would find it to make her forces fit to cope with
France, and to protect her coasts against hostile attacks, and if we
think how the annexation of Tripoli has created a new possession, which
is not easily defended against France and England, we may fairly doubt
whether Italy would take part in a war in which England and France were
allied against us. Austria is undoubtedly a loyal ally. Her interests
are closely connected with our own, and her policy is dominated by the
same spirit of loyalty and integrity as ours towards Austria.
Nevertheless, there is cause for anxiety, because in a conglomerate
State like Austria, which contains numerous Slavonic elements,
patriotism may not be strong enough to allow the Government to fight to
the death with Russia, were the latter to defeat us. The occurrence of
such an event is not improbable. When enumerating the possibilities that
might affect our policy, we cannot leave this one out of consideration.
We shall therefore some day, perhaps, be faced with the necessity of
standing isolated in a great war of the nations, as once Frederick the
Great stood, when he was basely deserted by England in the middle of the
struggle, and shall have to trust to our own strength and our own
resolution for victory.
Such a war--for us more than for any other nation--must be a war for our
political and national existence. This must be so, for our opponents can
only attain their political aims by almost annihilating us by land and
by sea. If the victory is only half won, they would have to expect
continuous renewals of the contest, which would be contrary to their
interests. They know that well enough, and therefore avoid the contest,
since we shall certainly defend ourselves with the utmost bitterness and
obstinacy. If, notwithstanding, circumstances make the war inevitable,
then the intention of our enemies to crush us to the ground, and our own
resolve to maintain our position victoriously, will make it a war of
desperation. A war fought and lost under such circumstances would
destroy our laboriously gained political importance, would jeopardize
the whole future of our nation, would throw us back for centuries, would
shake the influence of German thought in the civilized world, and thus
check the general progress of mankind in its healthy development, for
which a flourishing Germany is the essential condition. Our next war
will be fought for the highest interests of our country and of mankind.
This will invest it with importance in the world's history. "World power
or downfall!" will be our rallying cry.
Keeping this idea before us, we must prepare for war with the confident
intention of conquering, and with the iron resolve to persevere to the
end, come what may.
We must therefore prepare not only for a short war, but for a protracted
campaign. We must be armed in order to complete the overthrow of our
enemies, should the victory be ours; and, if worsted, to continue to
defend ourselves in the very heart of our country until success at last
is won.
It is therefore by no means enough to maintain a certain numerical
equality with our opponents. On the contrary, we must strive to call up
the entire forces of the nation, and prepare and arm for the great
decision which impends. We must try also to gain a certain superiority
over our opponents in the crucial points, so that we may hold some
winning trumps in our hand in a contest unequal from the very first. We
must bear these two points in mind when preparing for war. Only by
continually realizing the duties thus laid on us can we carry out our
preparations to the fullest, and satisfy the demands which the future
makes on us. A nation of 65,000,000 which stakes _all_ her forces on
winning herself a position, and on keeping that position, cannot be
conquered. But it is an evil day for her if she relies on the semblance
of power, or, miscalculating her enemies' strength, is content with
half-measures, and looks to luck or chance for that which can only be
attained by the exertion and development of all her powers.