Since the seventies the conditions have changed fundamentally in
Austria, and also, perhaps, in Bavaria. Just as here a return to
Pan-German particularism and the old Bavarian policy is not to be
feared, so there a revival of the policy of Prince Kaunitz and Prince
Schwarzenberg is not to be contemplated. But by a constitutional union
with Austria, which even without Galicia and Dalmatia is inhabited at
least to the extent of one-half by non-Germans, our interests would
suffer; while, on the other hand, by the subordination of our policy to
the point of view of Vienna and Budapest, we should have to "épouser les
querelles de l'Autriche."
We, therefore, had no need to heed the desires of our allies. They were
not only unnecessary but dangerous, inasmuch as they would lead to a
collision with Russia if we looked at Eastern questions through Austrian
eyes. The transformation of our alliance with its single original
purpose into a complete alliance, involving a complexity of common
interests, was calculated to call forth the very state of things which
the constitutional negotiations were designed to prevent, namely, war.
Such a policy of alliances would, moreover, entail the loss of the
sympathies of the young, strong, and growing communities in the Balkan
Peninsula, which were ready to turn to us and open their market to us.
The contrast between dynastic and democratic ideas had to be given clear
expression, and, as usual, we stood on the wrong side. King Carol told
one of our representatives that he had made an alliance with us on
condition that we retained control of affairs, but that if that control
passed to Austria it would entirely change the basis of affairs, and
under those conditions he could no longer participate. Matters stood in
the same position in Serbia, where against our own economic interests we
were supporting an Austrian policy of strangulation.