The method of play on the even chances that will now be explained is based
on the three following assumptions:--
First. That every system at present played is successful only for a certain
time, when an adverse run, long enough to defeat the progression adopted,
is almost certain to occur, whereby the Bank reaps a rich harvest.
Secondly. That only on rare occasions does the system show the desired
profit, without the player having been at some period of the game a very
heavy loser.
Thirdly. That the failure of systems is not due to zero, but to the Bank's
maximum.
These conditions are _assumed_, though in the first two cases they
undoubtedly are realities, and within the experience of every system
player. The third one may be true or not; it is not vastly important.[113]
Now as regards maxim No. 1, it may be taken for granted that for all
practical purposes the system player makes his "_grand coup_"[114] on not
more than {470} (say) twenty occasions, and on the twenty-first he meets
such an adverse run that he loses his entire profits plus his entire
capital; or say, for argument, he had already spent his profits and so
loses only his entire capital. The proportion of the coup played for to the
capital employed is generally some 2-1/2 per cent.; consequently after
twenty good days' play, and one bad one, a system player is a loser of 50
per cent. of his money. (This is a very low estimate.)
Now supposing a player had played stake for stake on the opposite chance to
that played on by the system player, it is obvious that he would have lost
on twenty days, and won on the twenty-first sufficient to recoup all his
previous losses, with 50 per cent. profit.
The mathematician will say "No" to this--"the Bank will have reaped its
zero percentage from each spin of the Wheel during the progress of the
play." But why? A, who is playing the system, stakes 10 louis on Red; B
(who is playing against him) stakes 10 louis on Black, and zero crops up.
They are both put in prison, and A comes out safely, so B is now 10 louis
worse off than A. But in a short time A and B again both stake 10 louis,
and zero appears. But this time B comes out safely, in which case A must
write this down as a losing coup, and his next stake will be say, for
example, 15. To meet this B has only to add 5 louis to the 10 he has just
retrieved out of prison--so his profit and loss account due to zero is
exactly square, as far as it affects his transactions with A. And surely
during the course of a game A and B will both get out of prison the same
number of times. (And A does not fear zero--he only fears reaching the
maximum--consequently B {471} does fear for zero; he but awaits the time
when his stake gets to the maximum.)
Is it not desirable to be B? He requires no capital--or very little--and
yet is in a position to win all that A is eventually going to lose--as he
most certainly _must_ lose. To play on this method is exceedingly simple.
All that has to be done is to take _any_ system, and play it in reverse
order to what it is designed to be played in. The effect of this is, in a
word, to compel the Bank to play this system in its correct order against
the punter. The writer has always employed a _Labouchere_ to play on this
method, and it is the simplest one by which to explain the procedure.
A reference to p. 456 will show that the _Labouchere_ system, is played by
writing down so many figures, so that their sum amounts to the _grand
coup_--or stake being played for--and that it is usual to write down the
figures 1, 2, 3, 4; so that the _grand coup_ is 10 units. To play this
system in the usual manner it is generally assumed that a capital of 400 or
500 units is required. By reversing matters in play the first important
advantage gained to the player is that he needs but a capital of 10 units,
and his _grand coup_ becomes 400 or 500 units. Very well. The figures 1, 2,
3, 4 are written down, and the first stake is the sum of the extreme
figures--5. This sum is lost; but now the 5 is not written down after the
4, but the _1 and the 4 are erased_. The next state is again 5 (2 + 3), and
is again lost, the 2 and 3 are erased and the player retires. Suppose this
second stake of 5 had been won, then instead of erasing the 2 and 3, the
figure 5 would be written down on the paper, so the row would read =1=, 2,
3, =4=, 5, and the next stake would be (5 + 2) 7. Should this be lost the 5
and 2 are {472} erased, the next stake being 3. Suppose it is won, this
figure is written down, and the row now reads =1=, =2=, 3, =4=, =5=, 3, and
the next stake is 3 + 3 (6), and so on. But the moment all figures are
erased, the player will have lost 10 units and must retire. This he will
have to do a great many times, but finally such a run as the following will
occur. The Red is staked on throughout--the dot indicating which colour
wins.
Figures. Stake. R. B. + or -
=1= 1 + 4 5 . -5
=2= 2 + 3 5 . 0
=3= 2 + 5 7 . +7
=4= 2 + 7 9 . +16
=5= 2 + 9 11 . +27
=7= 2 + 11 13 . +14
=9= 3 + 9 12 . +2
=11= 5 + 7 12 . +14
=12= 5 + 12 17 . +31
=17= 5 + 17 22 . +53
=22= 5 + 22 27 . +80
=27= 5 + 27 32 . +48
7 + 22 29 . +19
=29= 12 + 17 29 . +48
=41= 12 + 29 41 . +89
12 + 41 53 . +36
=46= 17 + 29 46 . +82
17 + 46 63 . +19
=29= 29 29 . +48
58 29 + 29 58 . +106
=87= 29 + 58 87 . +193
29 + 87 116 . +77
=87= 29 + 58 87 . +164
29 + 87 116 . +48
58 58 58 . +106
116 58 + 58 116 . +222
174 58 + 116 174 . +396
232 58 + 174 232 . +628
290 58 + 232 290 . +918
This shows a run of 29 coups, of which the player wins 20 and loses 9.
{473}