If the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, the consequences
could be severe for Iraq, the United States, the region, and the
world.
Continuing violence could lead toward greater chaos, and inflict
greater suffering upon the Iraqi people. A collapse of Iraq's
government and economy would further cripple a country already unable
to meet its people's needs. Iraq's security forces could split along
sectarian lines. A humanitarian catastrophe could follow as more
refugees are forced to relocate across the country and the region.
Ethnic cleansing could escalate. The Iraqi people could be subjected
to another strongman who flexes the political and military muscle
required to impose order amid anarchy. Freedoms could be lost.
Other countries in the region fear significant violence crossing their
borders. Chaos in Iraq could lead those countries to intervene to
protect their own interests, thereby perhaps sparking a broader
regional war. Turkey could send troops into northern Iraq to prevent
Kurdistan from declaring independence. Iran could send in troops to
restore stability in southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of oil
fields. The regional influence of Iran could rise at a time when that
country is on a path to producing nuclear weapons.
Ambassadors from neighboring countries told us that they fear the
distinct possibility of Sunni-Shia clashes across the Islamic world.
Many expressed a fear of Shia insurrections--perhaps fomented by
Iran--in Sunni-ruled states. Such a broader sectarian conflict could
open a Pandora's box of problems--including the radicalization of
populations, mass movements of populations, and regime changes--that
might take decades to play out. If the instability in Iraq spreads to
the other Gulf States, a drop in oil production and exports could lead
to a sharp increase in the price of oil and thus could harm the global
economy.
Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told us, "Al Qaeda is now
a franchise in Iraq, like McDonald's." Left unchecked, al Qaeda in
Iraq could continue to incite violence between Sunnis and Shia. A
chaotic Iraq could provide a still stronger base of operations for
terrorists who seek to act regionally or even globally. Al Qaeda will
portray any failure by the United States in Iraq as a significant
victory that will be featured prominently as they recruit for their
cause in the region and around the world. Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to
Osama bin Laden, has declared Iraq a focus for al Qaeda: they will
seek to expel the Americans and then spread "the jihad wave to the
secular countries neighboring Iraq." A senior European official told
us that failure in Iraq could incite terrorist attacks within his
country.
The global standing of the United States could suffer if Iraq descends
further into chaos. Iraq is a major test of, and strain on, U.S.
military, diplomatic, and financial capacities. Perceived failure
there could diminish America's credibility and influence in a region
that is the center of the Islamic world and vital to the world's
energy supply. This loss would reduce America's global influence at a
time when pressing issues in North Korea, Iran, and elsewhere demand
our full attention and strong U.S. leadership of international
alliances. And the longer that U.S. political and military resources
are tied down in Iraq, the more the chances for American failure in
Afghanistan increase.
Continued problems in Iraq could lead to greater polarization within
the United States. Sixty-six percent of Americans disapprove of the
government's handling of the war, and more than 60 percent feel that
there is no clear plan for moving forward. The November elections were
largely viewed as a referendum on the progress in Iraq. Arguments
about continuing to provide security and assistance to Iraq will fall
on deaf ears if Americans become disillusioned with the government
that the United States invested so much to create. U.S. foreign policy
cannot be successfully sustained without the broad support of the
American people.
Continued problems in Iraq could also lead to greater Iraqi opposition
to the United States. Recent polling indicates that only 36 percent of
Iraqis feel their country is heading in the right direction, and 79
percent of Iraqis have a "mostly negative" view of the influence that
the United States has in their country. Sixty-one percent of Iraqis
approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces. If Iraqis continue to perceive
Americans as representing an occupying force, the United States could
become its own worst enemy in a land it liberated from tyranny.
These and other predictions of dire consequences in Iraq and the
region are by no means a certainty. Iraq has taken several positive
steps since Saddam Hussein was overthrown: Iraqis restored full
sovereignty, conducted open national elections, drafted a permanent
constitution, ratified that constitution, and elected a new government
pursuant to that constitution. Iraqis may become so sobered by the
prospect of an unfolding civil war and intervention by their regional
neighbors that they take the steps necessary to avert catastrophe. But
at the moment, such a scenario seems implausible because the Iraqi
people and their leaders have been slow to demonstrate the capacity or
will to act.