EFFECTS OF THE WAR ON THE REPUBLICS
_El país de mañana_, "the Country of Tomorrow." One may hear the proverb
any day on the lips of Spaniard or Spanish-American in whimsical
self-criticism concerning his own ways and those of his people and
country. But the word applies in another sense to the Spanish-American
republics. They are the countries of tomorrow, the lands of the future,
the lands of promise, this score of Latin-American republics; for they
are twenty in number. Owing to want of space and the comprehensive
character of our subject, I have been obliged to speak of Latin America
as a whole. This is not inappropriate, for Latin America does form a
world in itself, as all Latin-Americans feel, and indicate in their
intercourse with one another. Thus, one may quite rightly speak of Latin
America as a whole, just as one used to speak of Europe as a whole. But
this western world, which sprang from the Iberian Peninsula, is a group
of twenty republics differing from one another in situation and
character and, to some degree also, in ethnology and manner of language.
These countries extend through every habitable latitude, and most of the
republics contain within their own borders every habitable altitude.
Their products are boundless, both in abundance and in variety, and
these products might be multiplied indefinitely. Name any one of the
republics, and you are naming a symbol of wealth, of existing wealth,
and still more, of manifold future wealth.
Gast's pamphlet, summarised in the second chapter, speaks of eighty
million people "reaching upward and now setting their feet on the first
steps of their life-journey." The expression may seem a little
inappropriate and, at first sight, even a little derogatory. But it is
true: and, on reflection, no South American need feel hurt at this
description, which is in fact a justification of the past history and
present position of his country. These countries are young. They have
known the turbulence of youth. Now they are pushing their way,
vigorously enough, towards maturity and clearly developed form. The fact
was distinctly stated by a Brazilian, lecturing lately in King's
College, London, who said: "The Nineteenth Century was the age of
experiment; the Twentieth Century will be the age of fulfilment." These
countries still require interpretation to Europe. Hampered at their
first start, at the epoch of emancipation, by the exhausting and
confusing character of that long struggle, by want of political
experience, by the ignorance of the masses and, in some parts, by
ethnological difficulties, they were obliged to spend a generation or
two in clearing up the aftermath of that revolution; and in most cases
their political constitutions (although in form they are models of
constitutional law) are in their actual working only now emerging from
the stage of experiment, sometimes confused and shifting experiments,
sometimes rough-and-ready expedients. For example, in the Argentine
Confederation and also in the United States of Brazil, the relations
between the Federal Government and the Governments of the States have
not attained that regular equilibrium which prevails in the United
States, an equilibrium which was there only procured at the cost of a
tremendous civil war. In most of the republics the relations between the
Executive and the Legislature have scarcely reached a stable adjustment.
We should remember that Brazil only shook off the monarchical form of
government in 1889, and that it was some years before that revolution
was really completed. Again, in the republic best known to England, the
Argentine Confederation, the multifarious and cosmopolitan mixture of
immigration from all the Mediterranean lands has hardly yet coalesced to
form a definite national type. The origin of these states, though
superficially resembling that of the United States, was in fact
fundamentally different. For every one of the thirteen British colonies
of North America was, in a sense, grown up and a developed entity at the
moment of emancipation, since they had all possessed local parliamentary
constitutions of the British type from the beginning of their colonial
days. The initial condition of the Latin-American states was much more
formless and their early difficulties were much more complex.
Some of these lands show the character of youth in the tendency to
imitation, the adoption of French and especially of Parisian ways, not
realising how much better is a genuine native development than the
imitation of even the best models. Another symptom of youth is the
lavish and sometimes ostentatious spending of money. If the
Spanish-American has money, he spends it like a schoolboy, and he likes
a splash for his money. Another sign of youth is the rather exaggerated
national or civic _amour-propre_, a lively touchiness concerning outside
criticism--a sentiment which inclines one to be rather diffident and
apologetic even about making such remarks as these. This is a local, not
a racial characteristic in the South American, for the Spaniard is even
more proudly indifferent than the Englishman concerning what the
foreigner thinks.
These young states have hitherto acquiesced in their economic dependence
upon Europe. European immigration (at least on the east coast),
Government loans raised in Europe, provision of public utilities by
European capital, importation of almost all manufactured articles from
abroad--these have been to most South Americans the accepted conditions
of life. Thus, all these republics felt a sharp and instant shock at the
outbreak of the European war. The economic equilibrium was upset, and
the machine ceased to work. The stream of European capital suddenly
dried up: so also the stream of immigration. Indeed, the supply of
labour in the Atlantic States, especially in the River Plate, dropped
below the normal after Italy joined the Allies. Scarcity of shipping,
together with the diversion to war purposes of all European energies,
diminished the exportation from South America of all commodities not
absolutely needed by the Allies for the prosecution of the war. Imports
from Europe were restricted. Germany, which had ranked third among
outside nations trading with the continent, dropped out altogether, with
the exception of the devious and struggling efforts already noted. To
the nations of South America what had seemed the natural and regular
order of things was suddenly suspended. They were thrown upon their own
resources; they were compelled to take stock of their position and to
face an unprecedented situation. They must manage their finances without
European help; they must provide their own labour. As to things hitherto
imported from Europe, they must either provide these things themselves
or go without. The shock was severe, but it must be allowed to have been
a wholesome shock. It has stopped public over-borrowing and has put some
check on extravagance of public spending. It has favoured private thrift
and has compelled those who were perhaps over light-hearted and
materialistic to take life more seriously. The Argentine family, which
formerly provided separate motor-cars for father, mother and each son
and daughter, has now to be content with one or none. The luxurious trip
to Paris or London, with its corollary of mountainous shopping, is
abandoned, and a more modest holiday is spent at the seaside or in the
mountains at home. The daily story, flashed along the cables from
Europe, of strife, of heroism, of self-sacrifice, conduces to reflection
and grave judgment. Finally, the meaning of the struggle has been now
brought home to every South American people. Every one of them is
closely touched by the recent developments of maritime warfare. Every
one is forced to come to a decision. Whatever that decision may be,
whether it be for open war, or limited participation, or rupture of
relations, or complete neutrality, that decision is expectantly watched
by the whole world and adds its weight in the balance of the great
trial. The effect must be a graver sense of national responsibility, a
more sober consciousness of national dignity.
The economic recovery, which followed the first shock, favoured this
national consolidation and development. Imports diminished, whereas the
urgent demand of the Allies for foodstuffs and raw materials soon
produced, in most of the states, a great expansion in the value, if not
in the volume of exports. Hence a favourable trade balance and an
increase in wealth. These conditions encouraged that movement of
industrial enterprise which everywhere sought to supply, by the
exploitation of home products and by the development of home
manufactures, the needs which had been hitherto supplied by importation
from abroad. Examples, taken mostly from the A.B.C. countries, will best
illustrate this industrial movement, which has been one of the most
notable effects of the war.
Argentina felt deeply the shock of August 1914. The outbreak of war fell
like a bomb in the midst of a serious financial depression, due to
speculation, extravagance and over-borrowing. The trouble was
intensified by drought and by two bad harvests, and more recently by
widespread strikes accompanied by destructive violence. But the crisis
has compelled the Argentines to rely upon themselves, to restrict
extravagances and to push forward the industrial development of their
own resources. Thus, the diminution in the supply of English coal has
led to the search for native coal, to the use of native petroleum and
native fire-wood. Lessened timber imports mean the exploitation of
native forests. A considerable quantity of native wool is now spun and
woven in the country, and home manufacture generally is increasing. Thus
the country is richer and more industrious than ever before. It is true
that this wholesome recovery is not yet reflected in the national
finances, which are still disordered by extravagance, over-borrowing,
improvident budgets, and now by the diminished receipts from customs.
However, one very interesting event deserves special mention--the credit
or loan granted by the Argentine Government to the Allies for the
purchase of the present harvest. Since Argentine Government loans are
mostly held in Western Europe, the debt can be discharged with equal
benefit to both sides, by simply taking over the obligations of the
Argentine Government on this side of the Atlantic. Even more remarkable
is the spontaneous offer made to Great Britain by the Uruguayan
Government of a large credit for the purchase of the Uruguayan harvest.
Thus, these two debtor nations have actually become creditors to Europe,
and are proceeding to gather into national ownership a large part of the
national debt. Uruguay is taking another and most striking step towards
economic consolidation. She is preparing to avail herself of the growing
national wealth and the increased value of the Uruguayan dollar in order
to buy up enterprises owned by foreigners within her territory,
particularly the railways, which are mostly in British hands. It may
here be noted that this economic movement in Uruguay coincides with a
radical and democratic reform of the constitution, a nearer intimacy
with her Latin neighbours, an approach to the United States, and also
closer relations with Europe through the abandonment of neutrality and
the signature of unconditional treaties of arbitration with France and
Great Britain.
In Brazil, the economic recovery, the industrial development and the
general movement of national consolidation are very notable. For the
entry of Brazil into the war has added a tone of effort, of serious
determination, of grave responsibility to this combined movement. At the
outbreak of war the great diminution in the export of coffee, which had
constituted nearly half of the total exports from Brazil, hit the
country very hard. But the energetic exploitation of other resources,
together with a partial resumption of coffee exports, has made good the
national loss. The Allies wanted rubber and manganese, which Brazil can
supply. The Allies wanted foodstuffs; and Brazil has become, with almost
incredible rapidity, an exporter of meat and of vegetable foods. Coal
ceased to come from Europe. The result has been that Brazil is striving
to supply her own needs by working her southern coal seams, although at
the present time want of transport is a serious obstacle to these
efforts. Manufactures of all kinds are increasing. Brazilian cotton
particularly is now largely woven at home, and this textile industry
alone now employs about 100,000 persons. Brazil is also taking more and
more into her own hands her coastal and river navigation, and is
extending her shipping lines to foreign ports. The result of this
industrial and commercial revival has been that, notwithstanding the
decrease in the matter of coffee, Brazilian exports now outstrip their
pre-war value, and they represent a far more wholesome and more
promising distribution of the national resources, since there is no
longer an overwhelming preponderance of one commodity raised in one
state. Moreover, notwithstanding the burdens of participation in the
war, Brazil has achieved by means of careful economy and retrenchment,
a wholesome reorganisation of the Federal finances. The war has not
prevented the punctual resumption, on the promised date, of cash payment
of interest on the foreign debt. The country presents a wholesome aspect
of national efficiency and national dignity.
It may be added here that the industrial movement in Brazil has been
greatly aided by the investment of North American capital, particularly
in meat-freezing establishments. It is perhaps premature to think of
Brazil, with her vast and undeveloped pastoral, agricultural and
forestal possibilities, as an industrial country. But the possession of
large deposits of iron indicates great industrial possibilities in the
future. One difficulty, the soft character of Brazilian coal, may
possibly be overcome, whether by import of fuel or by the adaptation of
mechanical appliances.
Chile, like her neighbours, felt the first shock. Germany, the principal
purchaser of nitrates, was cut off; and the republic found by sudden
experience, how dangerous and unsound was the system whereby the
national finances depended largely on export duties levied upon one
commodity. The administration rose to the necessities of the case:
taxation was distributed upon a more scientific and normal basis, and
very soon the war situation began to pour wealth into the lap of the
republic. Nitrate, needed by the Allies for munitions, reached its
highest price and its maximum production. Copper--now perhaps the most
precious of metals--followed the same course. After-war conditions,
particularly in regard to nitrate, are impossible to foresee. But Chile
has had her lesson, not to depend on the continuance of what may be
accidental conditions and not to build on the foundation of the market
in one commodity. "The war," says a representative Chilian, "has brought
us a certain prosperity and also something that is worth more than
prosperity--common sense."
The industrial movement, which has been noted elsewhere, is being
actively pushed forward in Chile, where indeed it dates from a time long
before the war; for in Chile local manufactures are favoured by local
conditions, namely, remoteness from Europe, a sturdy population, the
possession of coal and metals, and, also, a very distinct and compact
national character and national ambition, which owe little to recent
European immigration. In 1914--just before the war--Chile possessed
nearly 8000 factories employing about 90,000 persons. It has often been
questioned whether Chile, with a population of less than four millions
and a fertile territory largely undeveloped, did wisely to encourage
this industrial movement. The war has answered that question. Chilian
coal now mainly supplies Chilian needs; and, owing to careful treatment
and selection, the results have surpassed expectation. The number of
factories is growing; and in view of freight difficulties, there is a
movement towards exporting mineral products in a semi-manufactured
state.
As to the other republics, the immediate economic effects of the war
vary with the character of exports, whether needed by the Allies for war
purposes or not. The high prices of copper, sugar, and cotton have
brought to Peru a stream of wealth, and have enabled the government to
make a very interesting experiment in the scientific taxation of excess
war-profits made by exportation. Exports are untaxed until they reach a
certain height above normal price. Any addition to that limit is taxed
in a progressive ratio.
Not only have war conditions favoured a more clearly defined national
development, both economic and political, in each of the states. These
conditions also conduce to closer and more real intercourse between the
Latin-American states. There has been on the one hand a national
consolidation in each republic: but there has also been a movement
towards international consolidation in the Latin-American world. The war
has drawn these republics closer together and has taught them to feel
their need of one another, to supply one another's needs and to
recognise a nearer community of social and political interests. The
sentiment of _Americanismo_ is more than a sentiment: it is growing into
a solid fact. Apart from the war, there are many indications of a
kindlier and more intimate intercourse. The Universities of Argentina,
Chile and Uruguay exchange professors. Brazil and Uruguay agree
concerning navigation of the Lago de Merim and the river Jaguarão; and
also arrange a seasonal migration of labourers, who work from April to
September on the São Pãolo coffee estates and pass the other half-year
working on Uruguayan estancias. The same two republics adjust a
financial matter through the foundation of a joint Brazilian-Uruguayan
agricultural college. Uruguay has declared that an injury to any South
American country is an injury to them all. Envoys from the
neighbour-republics visit Bolivia to salute the newly-elected Bolivian
President, among them an envoy from the United States. Junior embassies,
hardly less interesting in character, are the visits of boy scouts from
capital to capital. The five tropical republics which hail Bolívar as
Liberator lately clasped hands in a joint celebration of his memory, and
at the same time concluded a commercial agreement concerning trade marks
and similar matters. The study of history, now actively pursued by
competent scholars in all the republics, is a unifying as well as a
humanising power: for the student who explores or writes the early
history of his own republic necessarily treats the history of all Latin
America. The history of the struggle for South American emancipation is
a single epic. And a pleasing symbol of this historical unity is to be
seen in the portrait of the Argentine commander San Martín and of the
Venezuelan Bolívar imprinted on the postage stamps of Peru. The railroad
helps this movement. The trans-Andine railway is a link of peaceful
intercourse between Chile and Argentina. A direct mail train service has
been established between Rio and Montevideo and also between Rio and
Buenos Aires. There is a prospect that the last difficult link to
connect the railway systems of Bolivia and Argentina will soon be
supplied. This is an imperfect and rather haphazard list of symptoms of
a natural and tranquil movement towards international unity, which
accompanies and supplements a more vigorous economic and political
development within the several states. The war situation has favoured
this movement. The interruption or diminution of trade with Europe has
led these states to trade more with one another. At first, this trade
consisted largely in the interchange of accumulated European goods: but
it soon grew into something more regular and more permanent, the
interchange of home products. Argentina recently got a consignment of
coal from Chile--in itself a small matter, but a significant one.
Brazilian coal has also found its way to Buenos Aires, and trade between
these two republics is increasing.
Both Brazil and Chile are aiming at the national and internal
development of their mercantile marine and coasting trade. But the first
use which Brazil made of the sequestrated German ships was the opening
of a Brazilian steamship line to Chile. The action of Chile is still
more noticeable. A law has just passed the Chilian Congress that after
the lapse of ten years the Chilian coastwise trade shall be confined to
Chilian ships. But the Chilian President may at his discretion extend
this privilege, by way of reciprocity, to the merchant-ships of other
Latin-American countries--a clear recognition of the fact that these
republics form a community of nations in themselves. Thus the two
movements are complementary: internal development is more and more a
national affair: the development of inter-state relations is felt to be
a necessary part of the national development, and more and more to
concern all the states: it is also felt to concern these people not only
as Brazilians or Argentines or Colombians, but as Americanos. In
dwelling on this point, there is probably no danger of giving rise to
geographical confusion. A Colombian visitor, lecturing lately in King's
College, remarked that, if a British merchant is invited to do business
with Colombia, he usually replies, "We have our agent for South America
in Buenos Aires," ignoring the fact that, if a Colombian merchant by any
rare chance should have occasion to visit Buenos Aires, he would
probably pass through London on the way. The trade of all these states
with one another is naturally immensely less than with Europe or with
the United States, for the simple reason that they are all producers of
raw materials and importers of manufactured goods, whereas the European
lands, and now the United States also, are importers of raw materials
and exporters of manufactured goods. But that very circumstance
illustrates the fact that these countries are a cluster of similar
organisms. They sit back to back and face outwards: yet as each one
grows and expands, they all become conscious that they are sitting
close, shoulder to shoulder. They are beginning to touch hands and to
pass their good things, both abstract and material, from one to another.
Things are changed since the names of Brazilian and Argentine were
almost mutual bugbears and since Chile and Argentina seemed to be
chronically "spoiling for a fight." The figure of Christ, which stands
on the boundary between these two nations, symbolises a truth--a reality
all the more valuable inasmuch as it is in part intangible, a product of
the realm of ideas, not merely of the material world. The fault of these
countries and an unfortunate result of their business connexion with
Europe has been that, however prolific in rhetoric, they have been at
bottom too materialistic and have been apt to suppose that the
convenient appurtenances of civilisation--railways, telephones,
tramways, motor-cars, all provided by the foreigner--in themselves
constitute civilisation, not quite realising that the word means the
faculty of living in organised communities. It is an admirable thing if
they can find an ideal, transcending their own borders, in the sentiment
or principle or fact of Americanismo: for that word does represent a
fact. An Englishman or a Frenchman, if asked about his origin, would
never think of saying, "I am a European"; but from the lips of an
Argentine or a Colombian the words _Soy Americano_ fall quite naturally,
with the addition _Colombiano_ or _Argentino_. I have heard a South
American speak in conversation of _La América Nuestra_, "Our America,"
when he had occasion to distinguish Latin America from the United
States. The word was casually dropped for purposes of definition: yet it
is an inspiring and significant phrase, _América Nuestra_. Which of us
could now so speak of "Our Europe"?
The war has favoured this spirit of Americanism in a tangible way
through the growth of economic intercourse. On a higher and broader
plane, the same thing is happening. We saw this when Brazil severed
relations with Germany. Her announcement, communicated to her
neighbour-republics, was received with a kind of demonstration of
Latin-American solidarity. Almost every Latin-American state responded
in terms of warm appreciation and sympathy. The Argentine Government
wrote that it "appreciated thoroughly the attitude of Brazil, which was
justified by principles of universal public right, and expressed to
Brazil the most sincere sentiments of confraternity."
As the Americano looks across the Atlantic, he may congratulate himself,
not without a feeling of civic pride, that he belongs to another world,
a system of republics living at peace with one another. A century ago
Canning boasted, "I have called a New World into existence to redress
the balance of the Old." It was a prophecy rather than a boast. Now is
the time for that New World to fulfil that prophecy by realising itself,
by creating itself.
It is no inconsistency to add once more that Latin America is at the
same time drawing nearer to all the nations of the world, that its
long-standing historic connexion with Europe becomes emphasised and
extended. Who could have foretold, even a year ago, that the Republics
of Peru and of Uruguay would offer the use of their ports to the
warships of belligerent European monarchies, that Brazil, Cuba and
Panamá would be represented, as recently happened, at the Allied
Conference in Paris, or that a Brazilian squadron would be acting with
the British fleet in European waters? It can no longer be said of these
states, as was said some years ago, that they stand upon the margin of
international life. This closer participation in world affairs does not
contradict, but rather confirms and explains, what has been said
concerning the growth of _Americanismo_, the consolidation of a younger
and distinct Europe across the ocean. As these states become drawn into
the general movement of world affairs, they are compelled to define more
clearly their own position in a world of their own. One may find some
analogy in the British Empire, whose members, as they grow into nations
and become severally involved in relations with all other peoples, find
it more necessary to reaffirm and to define their relations with one
another.
But in speaking of Latin America, one has to draw a line, or rather a
note of interrogation, round Mexico. The history of that unfortunate
country has been profoundly affected by her geographical position
within the North American continent. The path which she has followed in
recent years--a path not entirely of her own choosing--seems rather to
lead outside the ring-fence of Latin America. It is an interesting
speculation whether that path may not eventually lead her into another
fold, the fold whose shepherd resides in the White House at Washington,
whether that shepherd desires to undertake the responsibility or not.
The present position is an anomalous one. The political frontier of the
United States is the Rio Grande, but the geographical frontier of North
America is the Isthmus of Panamá, and that geographical frontier has
been occupied--merely as an outpost so far---by the United States. The
Republics of Nicaragua and of Panamá have been drawn under American
tutelage. The question arises whether after the great war the United
States may not be led on by the logic of events so to extend the
struggle on behalf of democracy against autocracy that the frontier,
dividing Latin America from the region under Anglo-Saxon control, shall
be the geographical boundary between the two continents. President
Wilson indeed has assured the Mexicans, with obvious conviction and
sincerity, that no aggression is intended against their territory, and
that he desires a common guarantee of all the American republics to
protect the "political independence and territorial integrity" of all.
But no statesman can shape the future or absolutely bind his successors.
It may be pointed out that there are various degrees and methods of
control, some of which may be found not quite incompatible with the
spirit of President Wilson's assurances. The precedents of Cuba, Panamá
and Nicaragua are suggestive.
This leads us to our last topic. We have discussed _Americanismo_, the
sentiment or system which aims at uniting the Latin-American republics.
What about Pan-Americanism, the sentiment or system which aims at
uniting all the American republics?