Lord Palmerston's Return--The Czar's Designs--Uncertain
Prospects--A Dinner of Lawyers--Preparations for War--The Reform
Scheme modified--Russian Preparations for War--Entry of the Black
Sea--Intrigues of France with Russia--Attacks on Prince
Albert--Virulence of the Press--Attitude of Russia--Reluctance on
both sides to engage in War--Prince Albert's Participation in
Affairs of State--Opening of Parliament--Vindication of Prince
Albert--Offer of Marriage of Prince Napoleon to Princess Mary of
Cambridge--Publication of the Queen's Speech--The Hesitation of
Austria--Justification of the War--The Blue Books--Popularity of
the War--Last Efforts for Peace--The Emperor Napoleon's
Letter--Lord John's Reform Bill--Difficulties arising--The
Greeks--Objections to the Reform Bill--Postponement of the Reform
Bill.
LORD PALMERSTON RESUMES OFFICE.
_Bowood, December 26th._--I came here to-day through town, where I saw
_en passant_ Granville and Clarendon; received a letter this morning
from Graham, telling me everything was arranged and Palmerston would
stay, which of course I knew long before. Clarendon thought Newcastle
had managed it exceedingly well, inasmuch as by this mixture of
conciliation and firmness he had got Palmerston to write and withdraw
his resignation, without any conditions; indeed, Clarendon considers
that Palmerston has virtually acceded to all the provisions of Lord
John's Bill to which he had objected. Whether his actions correspond
with this idea we shall see hereafter. The letter he has written they
say is 'artful and cunning,' but Aberdeen does not appear dissatisfied
with it; and as it is a considerable concession in him to write any
letter at all, they are right not to quarrel about the expressions. On
the whole, I am now of opinion that Palmerston will be damaged by this
proceeding. Nothing could justify his resignation at such a crisis but a
case of urgent necessity, and if he really was urged to it by such a
necessity, he clearly could not be justified in recalling his
resignation five or six days afterwards, finding himself exactly in the
same situation as he was in before it. It seems to me that he is
certainly on the horns of this dilemma, that he was either wrong in
resigning or wrong in returning. I told Lord Lansdowne so, but he did
not say much in reply; and I find the language of this place is all
favourable to Lord Palmerston, which I presume to be from their
sympathising in his objections to Reform; and they throw most of the
blame on Aberdeen for writing to him the letter he did, in which no
doubt he erred. However, they are all very glad it is made up, and
justly think that the less that is said about it hereafter the better. I
think now that some steps had been taken towards a reconciliation even
before the Thursday when Lady Palmerston spoke to me, and the Queen knew
on Thursday that the reconciliation was highly probable; for she wrote
to Lord Lansdowne that evening, and told him he need not come to Windsor
on Friday, which letter he received just as he was going to set off. The
Tories and the Radicals are equally puzzled, perplexed, and disgusted,
and do not know what to say. They accordingly solace themselves with
such inventions and falsehoods as it suits their several purposes to
circulate.
Clarendon received a letter from Cowley while I was with him, in which
he said he sent him a paper tending to show that the Emperor of Russia
was bent upon the destruction of Turkey, and prepared to run every risk,
and encounter any enemy, in the pursuit of that object. This is, I
think, very likely; and what is equally likely that, _per damna per
coedes_, and with much danger and damage to himself, he will
accomplish the ruin of the Turk. But all speculation must be vague and
fallacious as to the results of such a war as is now beginning.
_January 3rd_, 1854.--I returned from Bowood on Saturday, having had
no conversation whatever on politics with Lord Lansdowne--and of course
I sought none. News came there that the Turks had accepted the proposal
of the Allied Powers to enter into a negotiation, and we are now
waiting to see what the Emperor of Russia will be disposed to do; but
almost everybody thinks he will refuse to treat, and certainly he will
never admit, as the preliminary condition of negotiation, that no former
treaties shall be revived. The Cabinet meets to-day for the purpose, I
conclude, of resuming the consideration of the Reform Bill. The only
thing Lord Lansdowne did say to me was, that he had had several
conversations with John Russell when he was at Bowood, and that he
thought he had made an impression on him; he evidently expected that
Lord John would make concessions in his Bill which might satisfy, or
partly so, him and Palmerston.
PREPARATIONS FOR WAR.
_January 5th._--I dined on Tuesday with the Chancellor, Lord Cranworth:
an array of lawyers, the Chancellor of Ireland (a coarse, vulgar-looking
man, with twitchings in his face), Lord Campbell, Alderson, Coleridge,
and the Solicitor-General (Bethell); besides these Aberdeen, Graham, and
one or two more men.
I sat next to Graham and had much talk. He said the Cabinet that morning
had gone off easily, and he thought matters would proceed quietly now.
Palmerston is quite at his ease and just as if nothing had happened,
which was exactly like him. Graham thinks the Emperor of Russia is
determined on war, and will not consent to negotiate; he said he had
been as anxious as any man to maintain peace, but if we were driven to
go to war, he was for waging it with the utmost vigour, and inflicting
as much injury as we could on Russia, and that we might strike very
severe blows. It was commonly supposed Sebastopol was unassailable by
sea, but he was not satisfied of that, as they are not in possession of
sufficient information to be at all sure about it, but that he did not
know what a powerful fleet with the aid of steam could not accomplish.
He was inclined to believe that such a fleet might force the entrance to
the place and destroy the Russian fleets, but that it would probably
cost many ships to effect such an operation. In discussing the
probability of Russia and Turkey being brought to terms we agreed that
the conditions accepted by the Turks should prove a sufficient basis.
When I asked him whether this would not satisfy even Palmerston, and
whether he would not be desirous of peace if it could be so brought
about, he said he thought not, that Palmerston's politics were always
personal, and that nothing would satisfy him now but to _humiliate_ the
Emperor.
Yesterday afternoon I saw Clarendon at the Foreign Office. He said the
Cabinet went off smoothly enough, and Palmerston did not appear
dissatisfied; confirmed what Graham said of his easy manner--no
awkwardness or reserve. Aberdeen had written to him in answer to his
letter recalling his resignation, saying he wondered he should have
thought the matter of the Reform Bill _final_; and John Russell, when it
was all over, called on him. The alterations in the Reform Bill were
principally these: to extend somewhat the disfranchisement and to give
more of the seats to the counties (which was what both Lord Lansdowne
and Palmerston wished), and to reduce the county franchise from 20 to
10, taking Locke King's plan, the town franchise to be 6_l._, with three
years' rating, as originally proposed. This is intended to admit the
working classes; as Clarendon said, the _principle_ of the last Reform
Bill having been to _exclude_ them, and this to _admit_ them. It seems
now that Lansdowne and Palmerston will not dissent from this plan,
though they do not like it. The various propositions were put to the
vote _seriatim_ in the Cabinet and carried _nem. diss._, so that,
instead of everything having been conceded to Palmerston (as the lying
newspapers proclaimed), nothing has been; and he has, on the contrary,
knocked under.
Clarendon showed me the Note submitted to the Turkish Government with
the proposals as the basis of negotiations, to which we have not yet
received a formal answer; but from a confused telegraphic message they
think the Turks have accepted them. These terms will then have to go to
St. Petersburg. But meanwhile the notification to the Emperor of the
orders to our fleets was to reach St. Petersburg this day, and Clarendon
thinks it exceedingly likely this will produce an immediate declaration
of war on his part. His warlike preparations are enormous, and it is
said that the Church has granted him a loan of four and a half millions
to defray them. I told Clarendon what Graham had said to me of
Palmerston's disposition. He said he did not know, but it was not
unlikely, and quite true about personal motives always influencing his
conduct; and that he had always pleased himself with the reflexion that
the downfall of Louis Philippe might be traced to the Montpensier
marriage, which had really been the remote cause of it. Graham had told
me that Stratford was now really anxious for peace, for he began to see
the possibility of war bringing about the substitution of French
influences at Constantinople in place of Russian, and of the two he
infinitely preferred the latter. Clarendon confirmed this.
THE ATTACK ON SINOPE.
_January 6th._--All going on very amicably in the Cabinet, and Pam and
Johnny the best friends possible, cutting their jokes on each other, and
Palmerston producing all his old objections to the Reform Bill just as
if it was discussed for the first time. From what has been settled in
regard to the fleets at Constantinople I think we are running an
enormous risk of some great catastrophe.[1] It appears that Admiral
Hamelin declared it was impossible to enter the Black Sea with safety,
and Baraguay d'Hilliers agreed with him. Dundas was of the same opinion,
but said he was ready to go if ordered. Stratford was not convinced of
the danger as Baraguay d'Hilliers was. Before the opinion of the French
Admiral could reach Paris orders were sent out for the fleets to enter,
and though some discretion is left to the Admirals, the orders are so
precise that it is extremely probable they will obey them in spite of
the danger, great as it is; for the Black Sea is so dark they can take
no observations, and so deep it cannot be sounded, perpetual fogs (which
make the darkness), and no harbour where the fleets can take refuge. If
the fleets should meet with any serious disaster, the indignation and
clamour here would be prodigious, and the most violent accusations would
be levelled at the Government. It would be said that they would not let
the fleets go during the summer and safe seasons, when they could have
done anything they pleased; but, having allowed the Sinope affair to
take place, and failed to bring about peace, they now send the fleets
when they can do no good and prevent no mischief, and only expose them
to damage or destruction.
[Footnote 1: On November 30 the Russian fleet from Sebastopol attacked
the Turkish squadron in the harbour of Sinope and destroyed it. It was
this violent action on the part of Russia that at once decided the
British and French Governments to occupy the Black Sea with their
fleets. The Russian ships withdrew within the harbour of Sebastopol,
which they never left again. I believe that Admiral Dundas and Admiral
Lyons proposed to enter the Black Sea at once and intercept the Russian
vessels before they could reach Sebastopol, but this proposal was
overruled by the French officers, who were disinclined to act until they
received peremptory orders from the Emperor.]
_Broadlands, January 8th._--I came here on Friday; nobody is here but
the Flahaults and Azeglio; I walked with Palmerston yesterday and talked
of the Turkish question. He thinks the Emperor will not declare war on
receiving news of the orders to the fleets, but send some temporising
answer. He said that if these orders had been sent four months ago, the
whole thing would have been settled, which may or not be true; he is
very confident of the success of our naval operations, and of the damage
we may do to Russia; he has never alluded to Reform or anything
connected with it, and is in very good humour.
NEWSPAPER ATTACKS ON PRINCE ALBERT.
_January 15th._--I have never yet noticed the extraordinary run there
has been for some weeks past against the Court, more particularly the
Prince, which is now exciting general attention, and has undoubtedly
produced a considerable effect throughout the country. It began a few
weeks ago in the press, particularly in the 'Daily News' and the
'Morning Advertiser,' but chiefly in the latter, and was immediately
taken up by the Tory papers, the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Standard,'
and for some time past they have poured forth article after article, and
letter after letter, full of the bitterest abuse and all sorts of lies.
The 'Morning Advertiser' has sometimes had five or six articles on the
same day all attacking and maligning Prince Albert. Many of these are
very vague, but the charges against him are principally to this effect,
that he has been in the habit of meddling improperly in public affairs,
and has used his influence to promote objects of his own and the
interests of his own family at the expense of the interests of this
country; that he is German and not English in his sentiments and
principles; that he corresponds with foreign princes and with British
Ministers abroad without the knowledge of the Government, and that he
thwarts the foreign policy of the Ministers when it does not coincide
with his own ideas and purposes. He is particularly accused of having
exerted his influence over this Government to prevent their taking the
course which they ought to have done with regard to Turkey, and of
having a strong bias towards Austria and Russia and against France. Then
it is said that he is always present when the Queen receives her
Ministers, which is unconstitutional, and that all the papers pass
through his hands or under his eyes. He is accused of interfering with
all the departments of government, more particularly with the Horse
Guards, and specifically with the recent transactions and disagreements
in that office, which led to the retirement of General Brown, the
Adjutant-General. Then he and the Queen are accused of having got up an
intrigue with foreign Powers, Austria particularly, for getting
Palmerston out of office last year; that she first hampered him in the
Foreign Office, by insisting on seeing his despatches before he sent
them off, and then that she compelled John Russell to dismiss him on the
ground of disrespectful conduct to herself, when the real reason was
condescension to the wishes of Austria, with which Power the Prince had
intimately connected himself. Charges of this sort, mixed up with
smaller collateral ones, have been repeated day after day with the
utmost virulence and insolence by both the Radical and the Tory
journals. For some time they made very little impression, and the Queen
and Prince were not at all disturbed by them; but the long continuance
of these savage libels, and the effect which their continual refutation
has evidently produced throughout the country, have turned their
indifference into extreme annoyance. I must say I never remember
anything more atrocious or unjust. Delane went to Aberdeen and told him
that immense mischief had been done, and that he ought to know that the
effect produced was very great and general, and offered (if it was
thought desirable) to take up the cudgels in defence of the Court.
Aberdeen consulted the Prince, and they were of opinion that it was
better not to put forth any defence, or rebut such charges in the press,
but to wait till Parliament meets, and take an opportunity to repel the
charges there. One of the papers announced that a Liberal member of
Parliament intended to bring the matter forward when Parliament meets,
but I do not expect he will make his appearance. At present nobody talks
of anything else, and those who come up from distant parts of the
country say that the subject is the universal topic of discussion in
country towns and on railways. It was currently reported in the Midland
and Northern counties, and actually stated in a Scotch paper, that
Prince Albert had been committed to the Tower, and there were people
found credulous and foolish enough to believe it. It only shows how much
malignity there is amongst the masses, which a profligate and impudent
mendacity can stir up, when a plausible occasion is found for doing so,
and how 'the mean are gratified by insults on the high.' It was only the
other day that the Prince was extraordinarily popular, and received
wherever he went with the strongest demonstration of public favour, and
now it would not be safe for him to present himself anywhere in public,
and very serious apprehensions are felt lest the Queen and he should be
insulted as they go to open Parliament a fortnight hence. In my long
experience I never remember anything like the virulence and profligacy
of the press for the last six months, and I rejoice that Parliament is
going to meet and fair discussion begin, for nothing else can in the
slightest degree check it, and this, it may be hoped, will.
VACILLATION OF THE FRENCH.
_January 16th._--The attacks on the Prince go on with redoubled
violence, and the most absurd lies are put forth and readily believed.
It is very difficult to know what to do, but the best thing will be a
discussion in the House of Commons, if possible in both Houses. It is
now said that Sir Robert Peel is going to raise one. Clarendon told me
yesterday that he should not be surprised if the Emperor of Russia were
to recall Brunnow and not Kisseleff, as he is more particularly incensed
against England, knowing very well that we have acted consistently and
in a straightforward direction throughout, while the French have been
continually vacillating, and have kept up a sort of coquetry with him;
for example, Castelbajac congratulated the Emperor on the Sinope affair,
and said he did so as a Minister, a soldier, and a Christian. A pretty
Government to depend on, and which our stupid and ignorant press is
lauding to the skies for its admirable and chivalrous conduct as
compared to ours.
_January 21st._--For some days past the Tory papers have relaxed their
violence against the Court, while the Radical ones, especially the
'Morning Advertiser,' have redoubled their attacks, and not a day passes
without some furious article, and very often five or six articles and
letters, all in the same strain. It is not to be denied or concealed
that these abominable libels have been greedily swallowed all over the
country and a strong impression produced. The press has been infamous,
and I have little doubt that there is plenty of libellous matter to be
found in some of the articles, if it should be deemed advisable for the
Attorney-General to take it up. There can be little doubt that the Tory
leaders got alarmed and annoyed at the lengths to which their papers
were proceeding, and have taken measures to stop them. The Radical
papers nothing can stop, because they find their account in the libels;
the sale of the 'Advertiser' is enormously increased since it has begun
this course, and, finding perfect immunity, it increases every day in
audacity and virulence. One of the grounds of attack (in the 'Morning
Herald' and 'Standard' principally) has been the illegality of the
Prince being a Privy Councillor. In reply to this I wrote a letter (in
my own name) showing what the law and practice are, but incautiously
said the argument had been advanced by a member of the _Carlton Club_,
whereas it was in fact a member of the _Conservative_, and I had
imagined the two Clubs were the same. This mistake drew down on me
various letters, attacking and abusing me, and for several days the
'Morning Herald' has been full of coarse and stupid invectives against
me, supplied by correspondents, who, from the details in their letters,
must be persons with whom I live in great social intimacy. They are,
however, of a very harmless description, and too dull to be effective.
_January 25th._--I wrote a letter in the 'Times' (signed Juvenal),
showing up the lies of the 'Morning Advertiser,' and how utterly
unworthy of credit such a paper is. I find Palmerston and Aberdeen have
come to an understanding as to what shall be said in the way of
explanation, which is a good thing. It is not to be much, and they will
tell the same story. One faint ray of hope for peace has dawned. The
Emperor on receiving our Note has not recalled Brunnow, but ordered him
to ask for explanations, and he is only to withdraw if the answer is of
a certain tenor. Clarendon told him he could not give him an answer at
the moment, and Seymour had said in the P.S. to his last despatch, 'For
God's sake don't give Brunnow any answer for three days.' It is clearly
one of two things--the Emperor meditates making peace, or he wants to
gain time. The fact is, _he has got the answer_, for our instructions to
the Admirals (which were communicated to him) explain our intentions. In
a few days more we must receive his reply to the pacific overture.
COUNT ORLOFF'S MISSION TO VIENNA.
_January 29th._--Brunnow has not received his answer, but is to have it
on Tuesday, when I imagine he will announce his departure. Kisseleff has
not had his either, and there is some disagreement as to the answers
between us and the French Government. Clarendon has sent to Paris the
answer he proposes to give, but the French wish not to give Kisseleff
any answer at all, nor even to tell him what it is, but to send their
answer through their Ambassador at Petersburg, to which Clarendon
strenuously objects. This is only for the purpose of delay, the Emperor
Napoleon being so reluctant to go to war, and anxious to put off the
evil day as long as he can. It is not wonderful, for the accounts of the
distress in France, the stagnation of trade, and the financial
embarrassments, and the consequent alarm that prevails as well as
suffering, make it very natural that the Government should shrink from
plunging into a war the duration of which is doubtful, but the expense
certain. Colloredo told me the other day that he thought Orloff's
mission to Vienna afforded a good prospect of peace, because he was sure
Orloff would not have accepted the mission unless he had really expected
to bring it to a successful issue, but Clarendon told me last night that
Orloff is only empowered to propose the same conditions which the
Emperor originally insisted on, and that his real object is to detach
Austria and Prussia from the alliance, by any means he can and by
offering them any terms they please.
The attacks on the Prince are subsiding, except from the 'Morning
Advertiser,' which goes doggedly on in spite of its lies being exposed.
John Russell told me the other day that soon after the Queen's marriage
she asked Melbourne whether the Prince ought to see all the papers and
know everything. Melbourne consulted him about it, and he thinks that he
consulted the Cabinet, but is not quite sure of this. However, Melbourne
and Lord John (and the whole Cabinet if he did consult them) agreed that
it was quite proper she should show him and tell him everything, and
that was the beginning of his being mixed up in public affairs. Why he
did not then begin to be present at her interviews with her Ministers I
do not know, but that practice began when Peel came in, and Lord John
said he found it established when he came back, and he saw no objection
to it. He told me last night that the Queen had talked to him about the
present clamour, which of course annoyed her, and she said, if she had
had the Prince to talk to and employ in explaining matters at the time
of the Bedchamber quarrel with Peel, that affair would not have
happened. Lord John said he thought she must have been advised by
somebody to act as she did, to which she replied with great candour and
naïveté, 'No, it was entirely my own foolishness.' This is the first
time I have heard of her acknowledging that it was 'foolishness,' and is
an avowal creditable to her sense. Lord John said, when Lord Spencer was
consulted on the matter he replied, 'It is a bad ground for a _Whig_
Government to stand on, but as gentlemen you can't do otherwise.'
_February 1st._--Parliament met yesterday, a greater crowd than usual to
see the procession. The Queen and Prince were very well received, as
well as usual, if not better; but all the _enthusiasm_ was bestowed on
the Turkish Minister, the mob showing their sympathy in his cause by
vociferous cheering the whole way. The night went off capitally for the
Government in both Houses. In the Lords Derby made a slashing speech,
but very imprudent, and played into Aberdeen's hands, who availed
himself thereof very well, and made a very good answer, which is better
to read than it was to hear. Derby afforded him a good opportunity of
vindicating the Prince, which he did very effectively, and then Derby
followed him and joined in the vindication, but he clumsily allowed
Aberdeen to take the initiative. Clarendon answered Clanricarde, who was
hostile, but not very bitter; the former showed how much he suffers from
want of practice and facility. I thought he would have failed in the
middle, but he recovered himself and went on. Derby was put into a great
rage by Aberdeen's speech, and could not resist attacking _me_ (whom he
saw behind the Throne). He attacked my letter (signed C.), in which I
had pitched into the Tories for their attacks on the Prince. I saw his
people turn round and look towards me, but I did not care a fig, and was
rather pleased to see how what I wrote had galled them, and struck home.
In the Commons the Government was still more triumphant. The Opposition
were disorganised and feeble; all who spoke on that side took different
views, and very little was said. John Russell made a very good speech,
and took the bull by the horns about the Prince, entered at once on the
subject, and delivered an energetic vindication of and eulogium on him
in his best style. It was excellent, and between his speech and
Aberdeen's and all those who chimed in, that abomination may be
considered to be destroyed altogether, and we shall probably hear no
more of it.
OFFER OF MARRIAGE TO PRINCESS MARY.
This evening ---- told me a secret that surprised me much. I asked him
casually if he knew for what purpose Prince Napoleon was gone to
Brussels, when he told me that he was gone to try and get King Leopold
to use his influence here to bring about his marriage with the Princess
Mary, the Duke of Cambridge's sister; that for a long time past
Palmerston had been strongly urging this match with the Queen, and had
written heaps of letters to press it, having been in constant
communication about it with Walewski and the Emperor himself. They had
made such a point of it that the Queen had thought herself obliged to
consult the Princess Mary herself about it, who would not listen to it.
The negotiator did not make the proposal more palateable, and he did not
recommend himself the more, by suggesting that such a match was very
preferable to any little German prince. It is incredible that he should
have mixed himself in an affair that he could hardly fail to know must
be very disagreeable to the Queen, besides that the Princess is not
likely to sacrifice her country and her position for such a speculation,
so hazardous and uncertain at best, and involving immediate obligations
and necessities at which her pride could not fail to revolt.
_February 2nd._--The above story, put together with some other things,
leads to strange conjectures about Palmerston, which seem to justify the
suspicions and convictions of the Court and others about him. I have
before alluded to his intimate connexion with Walewski, and the
notorious favour with which he is regarded by the Emperor, who considers
him as his great _appui_ here.
Before proceeding I must, however, refer to another matter, which seems
to have no connexion with it. There is always great anxiety on the part
of the press to get the Queen's Speech, so as to give a sketch of it the
morning of the day when it is made, and those who do not get it are
very jealous of those who do. There has been great bother about it on
some former occasions, once particularly, because one of the Derbyites
gave it to their paper, the 'Morning Herald,' it having been
communicated in strict confidence, and according to recent custom, to
the leaders of the party. The other day Aberdeen refused to give it even
to the 'Times,' and of course to any other paper, and he begged
Palmerston not to send it to the 'Morning Post,' which is notoriously
his paper. Nevertheless, the Speech appeared in the 'Times,' and what
seemed more extraordinary, in the 'Morning Advertiser,' the paper which
has been the fiercest opponent of the Government, and the most
persevering and virulent of the assailants of the Prince. How these
papers got the Speech nobody knows, but as there were four dinners, at
which at least a hundred men must have been present, it is easy to
imagine that some one of these may have communicated it. Delane has
friends in all parties, and he told me that he had no less than three
offers of it, and therefore he had no difficulty. But how did the
'Morning Advertiser' come by it? It is politically opposed to both the
Ministry and the Derbyites; but it must have got the Speech from some
person of one or the other party, with whom it has some community of
interest or object. The run upon the Prince was carried on equally by
the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Morning Advertiser' till within ten days
of the meeting of Parliament, when the former was stopped; the latter
never ceased. I have heard it surmised more than once that these attacks
proceeded from Paris, and were paid for by the Emperor Louis Napoleon,
but I never could believe it. The other day I met M. Alexandre Thomas at
dinner at Marble Hill, and we came to town together. He told me he had
no doubt the abuse of the Prince was the work of the Emperor, and paid
for by him. It did not make much impression on me at the moment; but
now, putting all these things together, I cannot help partaking in the
opinion that the whole thing has been got up, managed, and paid for by
Louis Napoleon, Walewski, and another person here. Brunnow received his
answer yesterday, with many civilities and regrets, _de part et
d'autre_. Orloff as we hear has failed in his mission to cajole the
Austrian Government, but _non constat_ that Austria will act a firm part
against Russia. If she would only announce her intention to do so, the
matter would probably be settled; for Russia would, as we believe,
certainly come to terms, if she was sure of Austria acting against her,
so that, in fact, Austria holds the decision in her own hands, and the
greatest service she can do to Russia herself would be to compel her to
surrender, as she may still do with an appearance of credit and dignity.
PUBLICATION OF OFFICIAL CORRESPONDENCE.
_February 9th._--Nobody now thinks of anything but of the coming war and
its vigorous prosecution. The national blood is up, and those who most
earnestly deprecated war are all for hitting as hard as we can now that
it is forced upon us. The publication of the Blue Books has relieved the
Government from a vast amount of prejudice and suspicion. The public
judgement of their management of the Eastern Question is generally very
favourable, and impartial people applaud their persevering efforts to
avert war, and are satisfied that everything was done that the national
honour or dignity required. I have read through the thick volumes, and
am satisfied that there is on the whole no case to be made against the
Government, though there are some things that might perhaps have been
better done; but what is there of any sort, or at any time, of which as
much may not be said when we have been made wiser by experience and
events? These Books are very creditable in the great ability they
display. As Lord Ellenborough said in the House of Lords, the case had
been most ably conducted, both by Government and its agents. Clarendon's
despatches are exceedingly good, and in one respect greatly superior to
Palmerston's when he was at the Foreign Office: they are very measured
and dignified, and he never descends to the scolding, and the taunts,
and sarcasms in which the other delighted. Palmerston always wrote as if
his object was to gain a victory in a war of words, and have the best of
an argument; Clarendon, on the contrary, keeps steadily in view a great
political object, and never says a word but with a view to attain it.
Stratford's despatches are very able, and very well written, but they
leave the impression (which we know to be the truth), that he has said
and done a great deal more than we are informed of; that he is the real
cause of this war, and that he might have prevented it, if he had chosen
to do so, I have no doubt whatever. His letters have evidently been
studiously composed with reference to the Blue Book, and that he may
appear in a popular light. I find he has been all the time in
correspondence with Palmerston, who, we may be sure, has incited him to
fan the flame, and encourage the Turks to push matters to extremities. I
should like to know what Palmerston would have said, when he was at the
Foreign Office, if one of his colleagues had corresponded with any one
of his Ministers abroad, in a sense differing from that in which he
himself instructed him. The wonderful thing is the impunity which he
continues to enjoy, and how, daring and unscrupulous as he is, and
determined to have his own way, he constantly escapes detection and
exposure. The good case which the Government has put forward, and the
approach of war, have apparently extinguished or suspended all
opposition, and the Session, which everybody expected to be so stormy
and dangerous, bids fair to be as easy as possible. Great difference of
opinion exists as to the wisdom of committing our Baltic fleet to
Charles Napier. It was, however, decided at the Cabinet yesterday that
he should have it,[1] and we have got a very powerful squadron ready.
The war is certainly very popular, but I don't think its popularity will
last long when we begin to pay for it, unless we are encouraged and
compensated for our sacrifices by some very flattering successes.
[Footnote 1: There was a question of appointing Lord Dundonald, a far
abler man; but he was seventy-nine, and besides he made it a condition
that he should be allowed to destroy Cronstadt by some chemical process
of his own invention.]
_February 15th._--Several days ago there was a short discussion in the
House of Lords, in which the Government did not cut a good figure.
Aberdeen made a declaration in favour of peace, saying 'war was not
inevitable,' which produced an explosion against him, and it was so
imprudent _in him_, and so calculated to mislead, that Clarendon
insisted on his rising again and saying that no negotiations were going
on, threatening to do so himself if Aberdeen did not. He complied, but
the whole thing produced a bad effect, although there are no
negotiations to which we are a party. Austria is making a new attempt
with the Emperor, to which she was encouraged by Orloff before he went.
We are satisfied with the conduct of Austria, but though she has
rejected the Russian overtures, she will not engage to join us against
Russia in certain contingencies. If she would do this, it would most
probably settle the affair, and make the Emperor agree to reasonable
terms.
LETTER OF NAPOLEON TO NICHOLAS.
This morning appears in all the newspapers the autograph letter of the
Emperor Napoleon to the Emperor Nicholas, which has been so much talked
of. If the Emperor of Russia at once closes with it, he will place us in
a great dilemma, but it may produce peace. On Sunday Clarendon told me
all about this letter. The Emperor took it into his head to write it,
and sent a copy here for the approval of our Government. Clarendon made
many objections, particularly to the suggestion of a simultaneous
withdrawal of the Russian troops and the Allied fleets, and to the
separate negotiation of Turkey, two points we had all along laid great
stress upon. Walewski returned the letter with the objections raised by
us, and soon after informed Clarendon that the letter had been altered
according to our suggestions, and the objectionable parts omitted; but
he did not bring him the amended letter. Clarendon wrote to Cowley, and
said what had passed, and that he was glad the alterations had been
made, but was surprised the letter, as altered, had not been shown to
him. Cowley told Drouyn de Lhuys, who said they had sent the letter to
Walewski, and he could not think why Clarendon had not seen it, and he
wrote to Walewski desiring him to take it to Clarendon. He did so, when,
much to his annoyance as well as surprise, he found that they had only
made a few verbal alterations, and left the really objectionable parts
nearly the same as before. This may put us in a very awkward position.
If the Emperor Nicholas agrees, we must either agree also to what we
entirely disapprove, or disavow the French, and perhaps separate from
them; and it will be very embarrassing if the Government are asked in
Parliament whether they were a party to this letter and its proposals.
Clarendon told me this was only one of many instances in which the
conduct of the French had been very _louche_ and insincere. He thinks
this more attributable to Drouyn than to his master, and Walewski has
behaved with great loyalty and straightforwardness; but hardly a week
has passed that he has not had to complain of something done by the
French Government in a separate or clandestine manner, or of some
proposal which they ought not to make, and this makes one of the
difficulties of the position of which nobody is aware--a fine prospect
to be married to such a people on a great question; but what can be
expected from the Government of such a Sovereign and such Ministers? It
confirms my long settled opinion, that we are always in extreme danger
of being thrown over by them. With regard to the whole question (and
omitting these details) the Emperor Napoleon has behaved well enough to
us; for he has adhered steadily to the joint policy, though it is his
interest to maintain peace, and public opinion in France runs as
strongly that way as here it runs in the opposite direction.
The day before yesterday John Russell introduced his Reform Bill, having
resisted the most urgent representations and entreaties to postpone it.
His speech was very tame, and nothing could be more cold than its
reception. The few remarks that were made were almost all against it, or
particular parts of it, and it has excited no enthusiasm in any quarter.
The prevailing impression is that it will not pass if it is persisted
in. If any Reform Bill were to be proposed at all, this does not seem to
be a very bad measure, and some points in it are good; but nobody wanted
any measure, and the few Radicals who do, do not care for the
particular measures Lord John proposes, and ask for other things which
he will not hear of, so that he offends and alarms the Conservatives
without conciliating the Liberals, and he disgusts and provokes his own
adherents by his refusal to defer his Bill. Palmerston and his clique
are sure to abuse it, and to employ all the underhand means they can to
stir up opposition to it.
INSURRECTION OF THE GREEKS.
_February 20th._--John Russell answered the questions put in the House
of Commons about the Emperor Napoleon's letter very dexterously, telling
the truth, but in a way not offensive to the Emperor. He also made an
excellent speech on the debate on the Blue Books, brought on by Layard
in a bitter speech very personal against Clarendon. The House of Commons
as well as the country are so excessively warlike that they are ready to
give any number of men and any amount of money, and seem only afraid the
Government may not ask enough. I expect we shall have had quite enough
of it before we have done with this question, and that our successes and
the effect produced on Russia will not be commensurate with the
prevailing ardour and expectation here. The most serious of all
difficulties seems to be rapidly coming, the insurrection of the Greek
population; and this is a matter which has already caused a good deal of
difference of opinion and debate in the Cabinet, one half wanting to
assist in putting down the Greeks, the other half opposing this scheme.
The danger of attacking the Greeks is, that we should thereby throw them
at once into the arms of Russia, whereas the true policy is to persuade
them if possible to be quiet, and induce them to look up to us for
protection and future support. It is an element in the question of great
importance, and very difficult to deal with. It is disgusting to hear
everybody and to see all writers vying with each other in laudation of
Stratford Canning, who has been the principal cause of the war. They all
think that, if he had been sincere in his desire for peace, and for an
accommodation with Russia, he might have accomplished it, but on the
contrary he was bent on bringing on war. He said as much to Lord Bath,
who was at Constantinople. Lord Bath told him he had witnessed the
fleets sailing into the Black Sea, when he replied, 'You have brought
some good news, for that is _war_. The Emperor of Russia chose to make
it a personal quarrel with me, and now I am revenged.' This Lord Bath
wrote to Lady Ashburton, who told Clarendon. I asked John Russell
yesterday why he sent Stratford back to Constantinople. He said when he
sent him the quarrel was between France and Russia, and only about the
Holy Places; they knew nothing there of Menschikoff's demands, and
nobody was so qualified as Stratford to assist in settling the original
affairs.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S REFORM BILL.
_February 25th._--Last night Clarendon made a capital speech in the
House of Lords, far superior to any he ever made before, and the best
that has yet been made in defence of the Ministerial policy. He has got
on wonderfully since the Session began, each of his speeches being much
better than the preceding one, till at last he has made one of very
great merit and power, as all admit. It was spirited, dignified and
discreet. I began to fear he would never get over the misfortune of his
want of early practice, and never excel as a speaker; but this speech
was so good, that I now hope he will, having acquired confidence and
facility, speak up to the level of his ability. The rage for this war
gets every day more vehement, and nobody seems to fear anything, but
that we may not spend money and men enough in waging it. The few sober
people who have courage enough to hint at its being impolitic and
uncalled for are almost hooted down, and their warnings and scruples are
treated with indignation and contempt. It does now appear as if Austria
had made up her mind to act with us, and that we may depend upon her.
The French made known to the Austrian Government some time ago that, in
the alternative of her taking a hostile part, she must expect to be
attacked in Italy, and Clarendon early in the business pointed out to
Colloredo all the serious consequences his Government had to apprehend
in all parts of her dominions if she abetted Russia. With a war so
popular, and supported cordially by Parliament, and a flourishing
revenue and trade, Government would look round on a cloudless horizon,
if it were not for the Reform Bill, which is a matter replete with
uncertainty, difficulty, and danger. Nobody has an idea whether it will
be carried in the House of Commons; almost all the friends of Government
want Lord John to withdraw it, and the Cabinet is divided on the
subject, Lord John, Graham, and Aberdeen being strongly in favour of
pressing it on at all hazards, Palmerston violently against. He has now
reproduced all his own objections and arguments against the Bill itself,
as well as against forcing it on now, quite justified in the latter, but
unjustifiable in the former course. Having once knocked under, and come
back to office, consenting to swallow it, however reluctantly, it is too
late to cavil at the Bill itself; but he may consistently and properly
unite his voice with the voices of all prudent and moderate men, and
strenuously resist its being persevered in at this moment against a
feeling and opinion which are all but universal. On the whole, I rather
expect (but with much doubt) that Lord John will yield to the general
sentiment, and consent to postpone it.
_February 27th._--We are on the very verge of a Ministerial crisis. John
Russell will listen to no reason about his Reform Bill, he insists on
going on with it, and will have it that his honour and character demand
that he should, and he says, 'When the honour of public men is
preserved, the country is safe.' Clarendon dined here yesterday, and
told me he thought Lord John would break up the Government. It is, in
fact, a political duel between Lord John and Palmerston. ---- thinks,
and probably he is right, that at the last moment Palmerston will give
way, but in the meantime he himself and all his followers and admirers
are moving Heaven and earth to defeat the measure, and to set up
opposition to it--none more active than Hayter, Secretary to the
Treasury, whose borough is one of those to be disfranchised. Everybody
thinks Sir Edward Denny's motion will be carried, and if it is that Lord
John will retire. If it were not for the difficulty about leading the
House of Commons, this would not signify. I do not see how any
arrangement is possible but that Palmerston should take the lead, but I
do not know if this will not lead to other resignations. Clarendon is
indignant at the state of things brought about by Lord John's obstinacy.
He told me that Graham supported Lord John vehemently, but that Aberdeen
took no strong part, and had behaved very well. Having accepted Lord
John's Reform measure, and pledged himself to it, he was ready still to
abide by that pledge. There never was such a _mess_ as it all is.
Clarendon is now very hot on this war, which he fancies is to produce
great and uncontemplated effects. He says for very many years past
Russia has been the great incubus on European improvement, and the real
cause of half the calamities that have afflicted the world, and he
thinks a great opportunity now presents itself of extinguishing her
pernicious influence, and by liberating other countries from it, the
march of improvement and better government will of necessity be
developed and accelerated, and in this way civilisation itself may be
the gainer by this contest. The Emperor Napoleon has earnestly pressed
that our contingent should be put under the command of the French
Marshal, to which we have altogether objected, and he has acquiesced,
though reluctantly. We have agreed on a sort of _mezzo termine_, viz.
that, in the event of a battle in which both forces are engaged, they
should be under one Commander-in-Chief, who must be the Frenchman.
Clarendon lamented that he had got no better Minister at Vienna than
Westmorland just now, who though well meaning is nearly useless, as
Colloredo is here, who will take nothing on himself. He says Castelbajac
at St. Petersburg has really not represented the French Government at
all, nor acted in any way in conjunction with Seymour, but been all
along a base courtier of the Emperor Nicholas. Clarendon has again and
again remonstrated through Cowley with Drouyn de Lhuys on this
inconsistency, and Drouyn has always replied that he is quite aware of
it, and has been at least as much annoyed at it as we could be, but that
the Emperor would never allow him to be recalled. I asked Clarendon
whether, now that war really was inevitable, Aberdeen was more
reconciled to it, and he said not at all; he yielded to the necessity,
but very sulkily, and in the discussions relating to it in the Cabinet
he took no part, and evinced a total indifference, or rather disgust.
However, he expressed great admiration of Clarendon's speech, which he
said was the best he ever heard. Lord John has sent to his brother to
come to town, telling him a crisis is at hand. Granville, who is all
with Lord John, personally and politically a Reformer, and highly
approving of this Bill, is going to him to-day to see if he can prevail
on him to give way to the general opinion, and at all events to put him
in possession of what is said and thought on the subject.
THE REFORM BILL POSTPONED.
_March 6th._--After a great struggle John Russell was persuaded to put
off his Reform Bill, but only till the end of April, so that in a few
weeks the same embarrassment will begin again. The satisfaction at its
being deferred at all is great and general, and everybody thinks that
some expedient will be devised for putting it off again, when the time
comes, and so that we shall be rid of it for this year. All the Cabinet
was for putting it off, except Graham and Aberdeen. The former has
devoted himself to Lord John, and goes heart and soul with him. Why
Aberdeen took that view I cannot imagine, unless he wished to bring
about a crisis, and to make his escape by favour of it. My own opinion
at present is, that on April 27 Lord John will insist on bringing it on,
and abide the consequences. The tenour of his speech and still more that
of Aberdeen, the same night, lead me to that conclusion. The Radicals
with old Hume at the head of them, approved of the course Lord John
took, but expressly with the understanding that he really meant and
would bring it on at the period to which it was postponed; and as he is
sure to be incessantly urged on by his _entourage_ to be firm when the
time comes, and he will be very reluctant to encounter the indignation
and reproaches of his reforming friends and adherents, the chances seem
to me to be in favour of the battle taking place. I think his speech on
putting it off was not at all good, nor what he ought to have said. He
laid himself open to an attack from Disraeli, which was very just, and
he could not answer it. It was quite absurd to ground the postponement
on the war and its exigencies, and it was moreover not the real and true
reason. He put it off because he was importuned by everybody to do so,
because Hayter proved to him that he would infallibly be defeated, and
because there was no other way of preventing a break-up of the
Government. He might have anticipated Disraeli's philippic by reverting
to what he had before said, repeating his own conviction that the war
afforded no reason for not going on with the Bill; but that he found so
many of his own friends and such a general concurrence of feeling in the
House of Commons on the other side, added to great indifference in the
country, that he had thought it right to defer to those opinions, and
give up his own to them. Such a defence of his conduct as this would
have been more effective and more consistent with the truth, but it
would have involved something like an acknowledgement of error, from
which it is probable that his pride and obstinacy revolted, so he made
what I think was a very bad speech. If he does bring it on again in
April, I expect he will be defeated, and then retire. In any case his
retirement will lead to Palmerston's elevation, as leader of the House
of Commons if Lord John goes alone, as Prime Minister if Graham and
Aberdeen go with him, and there seems no alternative, unless Lansdowne
can be induced to replace Aberdeen, which some think not impossible,
though it would only be for a short time.