Weakness of the Government--Gladstone's Budget--A Conversation with
Disraeli--Suicidal Conduct of the Tories--Their Irritation--A
Charge against Mr. Gladstone defeated--The Stafford
Committee--Harmony of the Government--Electoral
Corruption--Impending War--Success of the Government--Macaulay's
Speech on the Judges' Exclusion Bill--Erroneous Predictions from
Paris--Unsettled Policy as to the War--Lord John's Anti-Catholic
Speech--The English and French Fleets sail for the
Dardanelles--Conduct of Austria--Russia means War--Attacks by the
Opposition--Explanations desired--Attempted Mediation--Lord
Aberdeen's Confidence shaken--Divisions of Opinion--Terms of
Accommodation--Lord Palmerston's Views--Prospect of Peace--Division
in the Lords on the Succession Duties Bill--Friendly Relations of
Lord Palmerston and Lord Clarendon--Fears of War--Hopes of
Peace--Lord Palmerston and Mr. Cobden--Rejection of the Vienna
Note--Lord Palmerston courted by the Tories--Lord John Russell's
Position--The Duke of Bedford's Part in the last Crisis--Dangers at
Constantinople--Lord Stratford's Influence--Suspected Intrigue of
France with Russia--Lord Palmerston goes to Balmoral--Sir James
Graham's View--Lord Stratford's Conduct--Importance of the Vienna
Note--A Cabinet summoned.
_London, April 21st_, 1853.--I have had such a bad fit of gout in my
hand, that I have been unable for some time past to write at all, though
there has been plenty to write about. The Government has been sustaining
defeats in the House of Commons on detached questions of taxation, much
to their annoyance and embarrassment, and which were more serious from
the inference to be drawn from them than for their intrinsic importance.
They were caused by the meddling and absurd crotchets of some of their
friends, and the malignity and unprincipled conduct of their enemies:
the first bringing forward motions for reduction of certain items,
merely to gratify clients or constituents, and the Tories joining with
the Radicals in voting for things which they opposed when they were
themselves in office, reckless of consistency or of consequences. But
the whole affair was unpleasant, as it displayed strikingly how little
authority the Government has over the House of Commons, and the
difficulty, if not impossibility, of carrying on the service of the
country.
MR. GLADSTONE'S BUDGET.
These little battles were, however, of little moment compared with the
great event of Gladstone's Budget, which came off on Monday night. He
had kept his secret so well, that nobody had the least idea what it was
to be, only it oozed out that the Income Tax was not to be
differentiated. He spoke for five hours, and by universal consent it was
one of the grandest displays and most able financial statement that ever
was heard in the House of Commons; a great scheme, boldly, skilfully,
and honestly devised, disdaining popular clamour and pressure from
without, and the execution of it absolute perfection. Even those who do
not admire the Budget, or who are injured by it, admit the merit of the
performance. It has raised Gladstone to a great political elevation,
and, what is of far greater consequence than the measure itself, has
given the country assurance of a _man_ equal to great political
necessities, and fit to lead parties and direct governments.
_April 22nd._--I met Gladstone last night, and had the pleasure of
congratulating him and his wife, which I did with great sincerity, for
his success is a public benefit. They have been overwhelmed with
compliments and congratulations. Prince Albert and the Queen both wrote
to him, and John Russell, who is spitefully reported to have been
jealous, has, on the contrary, shown the warmest interest and
satisfaction in his success. The only one of his colleagues who may have
been mortified is Charles Wood, who must have compared Gladstone's
triumph with his own failures. From all one can see at present, it
promises certain success, though many parts of the Budget are cavilled
at. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to find any common ground
on which Radicals or Irish can join the Derbyites to overthrow it, and
the sanguine expectations which the latter have been entertaining for
some time, of putting the Government into some inextricable fix, have
given way to perplexity and despondency; and they evidently do not know
what to do, nor how to give effect to their rancour and spite. Lord
Derby had a great meeting not many days ago, at which he recommended
union, and cheered them on in opposition, of course for form's sake,
talking of _moderation_ and _principles_, neither of which he cares a
fig for. Mischief and confusion, vengeance against the coalition, and
taking the chance of what may happen next, are all that he and Disraeli
are bent upon. I met the latter worthy in the street just before the
Budget, a day or two previous. He asked me what I thought of the state
of affairs, and I told him I thought it very unpleasant, and it seemed
next to impossible to carry on the Government at all, everybody running
riot in the House of Commons, and following his own fancies and
crotchets; nor did I see how it could be otherwise in the present state
of parties and the country; that since Peel's administration, which was
a strong Government, there had been and apparently there could be none.
The present Government was not strong, and they were perpetually
defeated, on minor points indeed, but in a way that showed they had no
power to work through Parliament. I said of course they would dissolve
if this continued, but that Gladstone's Budget might make a difference
one way or the other. Disraeli scouted the idea of a dissolution, by
which, he said, they would certainly gain nothing. Why, he asked, did
not the Peelites join us again, as they might have done, and got as good
terms as they have now, and then there would have been a strong
Government again? As I don't want to quarrel with anybody, I restrained
what it was on my lips to say--'You could not possibly expect them to
join you'--but I did tell him that, even if the present Government could
not maintain itself, of all impossible things the most impossible was
the restoration of his Government _tale quale_, to which he made no
reply. To be sure, the Protectionist seceders from Peel have now drunk
the cup of mortification, disgrace, and disaster to the very dregs. They
are a factious and (as I hope) impotent Opposition, under the
unprincipled guidance of men, who, clever and plausible though they be,
are totally destitute of wisdom, sincerity, and truth. They have not
only lost all the Protection for the maintenance of which they made such
struggles and sacrifices, but they have likewise brought upon themselves
the still heavier blow to the landed interest which is going to be
inflicted in the shape of the legacy duty. Had they possessed more
foresight, and been less violent and unreasonable, this would not have
happened to them; for if Peel's original Government had held together,
and they had been content to accept his guidance, no Budget would have
contained this measure. Schemes might have been devised to lighten their
burdens, or to increase the compensations they really have obtained in
other ways; but, be this as it may, they would certainly have been saved
from this direct impost, which I doubt if Peel himself ever
contemplated, but which he would certainly have spared them if they had
not deserted him, nor would his successors have departed from his policy
in this respect. But from first to last their conduct has been suicidal
in every respect.
SUICIDAL CONDUCT OF THE TORIES.
_May 3rd._--The Government is going on very flourishingly. A capital
division in the House of Lords on the Canada Clergy Reserves Bill,[1] on
which occasion there was a scene between Derby and Clarendon, in which
both were, to my mind, in the wrong. The whole affair appears in all the
newspapers, but what does not appear is the rather absurd termination of
it, when, after much excitement and strong language interchanged, the
belligerents ended by drinking each other's healths in water across the
table. The victory in the Lords has been followed up by one still more
important in the House of Commons on the Income Tax, which was carried
by 71, a great many of the Opposition voting with Government, much to
the disgust of their friends. These divisions have filled the Derbyites
with rage and despair, and nothing can exceed their depression and their
abuse of the Budget and its authors. What vexes and provokes them so
much is the ascendency and triumph of the Peelites. They could endure
it in the Whigs, but their hatred of the name and party of Peel is
inextinguishable.
[Footnote 1: This was a Bill abolishing the title of the Protestant
Clergy to certain portions of waste lands in the Colony.]
_May 15th._--At Newmarket last week, during which the Budget was making
its way very successfully through the House of Commons, where Gladstone
has it all his own way. The Speaker told me he was doing his business
there admirably well. While I was at Newmarket came out the strange
story of Gladstone and the attempt to extort money from him before the
police magistrate.[1] It created for the moment great surprise,
curiosity, and interest, but has almost entirely passed away already,
not having been taken up politically, and there being a general
disposition to believe his story and to give him credit for having had
no improper motive or purpose. Nevertheless it is a very strange affair,
and has not yet been satisfactorily explained. It is creditable in these
days of political rancour and bitterness that no malignant attempt has
been made to vilify him by his opponents or by the hostile part of the
press. On the contrary, the editor of the 'Morning Herald' wrote him a
very handsome letter in his own name and in that of the proprietor,
assuring him of their confidence in his purity and innocence, and that
nothing would induce them to put anything offensive to him in the paper,
and they had purposely inserted the police report in an obscure part of
the paper. It is very fortunate for Gladstone that he was not
intimidated and tempted to give the man money, but had the courage to
face the world's suspicions and meet the charge in so public a manner.
[Footnote 1: An attempt had been made to extort money from Mr.
Gladstone on a spurious charge, which he met by instantly giving the
delinquent into custody and meeting the case at a police office.]
THE STAFFORD COMMITTEE.
The Stafford Committee has at length closed its proceedings, after
exposures of the most disgraceful kind, which are enormously damaging
not only to Augustus Stafford himself but to Lord Derby and his
Government. The Duke of Northumberland comes clear out of it as to
corruption, but cuts a wretched and ridiculous figure, having failed to
perform the duties or to exercise the authority of a First Lord while he
was at the Admiralty. Disraeli's evidence was nothing but an attempt to
shirk the question and involve it in a confusion of characteristic
verbiage which only excited ridicule. This affair has done great harm to
them as a party, and served to make them more odious and contemptible
than they were before.[1] They are now irretrievably defeated, and
though they may give much trouble and throw difficulties and
obstructions in the way of the Government, it is all they can do. Every
day adds to the strength and consistency of the Government, both from
their gaining favour and acquiring influence in the country, and from
the ruin in which the Tory party is involved, and the total
impossibility of their rallying again so as to form another Government.
This latter consideration has already produced the adhesion of some
moderate and sensible men who take a dispassionate view of affairs and
who wish for a strong and efficient Government, and it will produce
still greater effects of the same kind.
[Footnote 1: Charges of misconduct in the department of the Admiralty
were brought against Mr. Augustus Stafford, who had held office under
the late Government. They were investigated by a Select Committee of the
House of Commons.]
_May 22nd._--I met in a train a day or two ago Graham and the Speaker,
not having seen Graham for a long time. Since my friends have been in
office I have hardly ever set eyes on them or had any communication with
them. Graham seemed in excellent spirits about their political state and
prospects, all owing to Gladstone and the complete success of his
Budget. The long and numerous Cabinets, which were attributed by the
'Times' to disunion, were occupied in minute consideration of the
Budget, which was there fully discussed, and Gladstone spoke in the
Cabinet one day for three hours, rehearsing his speech in the House of
Commons, though not quite at such length. Graham again said Clarendon
was doing admirably. Palmerston he thinks much changed and more feeble,
his energy much less, and his best days gone by. He thinks Lord John's
position without office an unfortunate one, and regrets he did not stay
at the Foreign Office or take another; he thinks his influence impaired
by having none. He talked of a future Head, as Aberdeen is always ready
to retire at any moment, but it is very difficult to find anyone to
succeed him. I suggested Gladstone. He shook his head and said it would
not do; and he was for John Russell, but owned there were difficulties
there too. He considered Derby and the Tories irretrievably ruined,
their characters so damaged by Stafford's Committee and other things; he
spoke of the grand mistakes Derby had made. Gladstone's object certainly
was for a long time to be at the head of the Conservative party in the
House of Commons, and to join with Derby, who might in fact have had all
the Peelites if he would have chosen to ally himself with them instead
of with Disraeli; thus the latter had been the cause of the ruin of the
party. Graham thought that Derby had committed himself to Disraeli in
George Bentinck's lifetime in some way that prevented his shaking him
off, as it would have been his interest to do. The Peelites would have
united with Derby, but would have nothing to do with Disraeli. Bad as
the cases were that had come forth at the election committees, that of
Liverpool was worse than any of them, and would create a great scandal.
Forbes Mackenzie could not face it, and would probably retire; but it is
doubtful if this would prevent an enquiry and exposure, and when
boundless corruption appeared at such a place as Liverpool, with its
numerous constituency, it was a blow to the representative system
itself, and showed the futility of attempts to destroy bribery and
improper influence.
APPROACHING RUPTURE OF RUSSIA AND TURKEY.
_May 30th._--Great alarm the last two or three days at an approaching
rupture between Russia and Turkey, as, if it takes place, nobody can
pretend to say what the consequences may be. Vast indignation of course
against the Emperor of Russia, who certainly appears to have departed
from the moderate professions which he made to Seymour a short time ago,
and the assurances that were given to us and France. But Clarendon, whom
I saw yesterday, is rather disposed to give him credit for more moderate
and pacific intentions than his conduct seems to warrant. He says that
he is persuaded the Emperor has no idea of the view that is taken of his
proceedings here, and that he thinks he is requiring no more than he is
entitled to; and it is only the other day that Nesselrode congratulated
Seymour on the prospect of everything being satisfactorily settled,
having no doubt of the Turks accepting the last proposals made to them,
a copy of which Nesselrode showed him. Still, though matters look very
black, Clarendon is not without hopes of war being averted and some
means found of patching up the affair, the Emperor having promised that
he will in no case resort to _ulterior measures_ without giving us
notice of his intention. The difficulty for him now is to recede with
honour, as it would be to advance without danger. He has once before
receded after to a certain degree committing himself, and he may not
choose to do so a second time. Then he is naturally provoked with the
French, who are in fact the real cause of this by their intrigues and
extortions about the holy places; and we suspect that he is, besides
this, provoked at the Montenegrin affair having been settled by Austria
without his having a finger in that pie. All these considerations
combined make great confusion and difficulty. Brunnow is in mortal
agony, dreading above all things the possibility of his having to leave
this country.
The Government continues to go on very well; the Opposition got up a
debate on the legacy duties in the House of Lords the other night, which
only served to prove how entirely Derby's influence has declined even
there. They had thought themselves sure of beating the Government, but
not only were they defeated, but accident alone (people shut out and
absent) prevented their being defeated by a considerable majority. The
Cabinet is going on in the greatest harmony, and the men who were
strangers up to the time of its formation have taken to each other
prodigiously. Aberdeen unfortunately wants the qualities which made Lord
Lansdowne so good a leader, and is rather deficient in tact and temper
in the House of Lords as he used to be formerly, when he attacked Lord
Grey's Government and Palmerston's administration of foreign affairs
always with too much asperity; but in spite of these defects he has not
done ill even there, and in the Cabinet he is both liked and respected,
being honest, straightforward, and firm, very fair, candid, and
unassuming. Granville tells me that of the whole Cabinet he thinks
Aberdeen has the most pluck, Gladstone a great deal, and Graham the one
who has the least. He speaks very well of Molesworth, sensible,
courageous, and conciliatory, but quite independent and plain spoken in
his opinions.
_June 1st._--John Russell made an imprudent speech the night before last
on the Irish Church, giving great offence to the Irish and the
Catholics. He could not help, as leader of the Government, opposing a
proposition having for its object the destruction of the Irish Church,
but he might have done it with more tact and discretion, and not in a
way to elicit the cheers of the Tories. The Tail will pay him off for
this whenever they can. _Quantum mutatus ab illo_, who broke up a
Government for the sake of an appropriation clause.
Last night Macaulay reappeared in the House of Commons, and in a speech
of extraordinary power and eloquence threw out the Judges' Exclusion
Bill.[1] It was the first time he had spoken, and though his physical
strength is impaired he showed that his mental powers are undiminished.
UNPOPULARITY OF THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT.
Senior called on me a day or two ago, just returned from Paris, where he
has been living and conversing with all the notabilities (principally of
the Liberal party), and he tells me there is but one opinion amongst
them, that this Empire cannot last, and they only differ as to the time
it may last. Most of them think it will be short. Thiers gives it only a
year, Duchâtel alone thinks it will go on for some years. The
unpopularity of Louis Napoleon increases and his discredit likewise,
and as soon as the unpopularity shall extend to the army, it will be all
over with him. The Opposition which has sprung up, which has increased
rapidly and will increase still more in the Corps Législatif, is deemed
to be very important and significant, and they think it will be
impossible for him to go on with such a body so constituted and
disposed, and he will have to decide upon suffering the embarrassment it
will cause him, or having recourse to a _coup d'état_, a measure which
would be hazardous. There are no fresh adhesions to the Court beyond the
half dozen men of rank or name who have already joined it, and who are
hated and despised for having done so. While such is the opinion of the
people of mark at Paris, they are nevertheless sensible of the danger
which would accompany a counter revolution, and of the uncertainty of
what might follow, what influences might prevail, and what form of
government be adopted; but they seem generally to think that while in
the first instance there would be a succession of provisional
arrangements and fleeting transitory governments, it would end in the
restoration of the monarchy under Henri V., but that this would not take
place by the acceptance and triumph of any divine hereditary right, but
must be adopted by the nation and ratified by a national vote.
[Footnote 1: A Bill was before Parliament which would have excluded the
Master of the Rolls from the House of Commons, he being the only Judge
who could sit there. The Judge of the Admiralty Court had already been
excluded. Macaulay opposed the Bill with such force and eloquence that
he changed the opinion of the House, and defeated the measure. An
unusual occurrence.]
_June 5th._--I saw Clarendon on Friday morning for a few minutes; he
takes a very gloomy view of the Russo-Turkish question, and is greatly
disgusted at having been deceived by the Emperor; he says he is harassed
to death with the whole affair, and with the multiplicity of business he
has besides; he has a difficult task to perform, taking a middle
position in the Cabinet between the opposite opinions of those who are
for more stringent measures and those who, like himself, are for
patience and moderation. Palmerston, in whom his ancient Russian
antipathies are revived, is for vigour, and as in former times 'leading
John Russell by the nose,' Clarendon and Aberdeen for moderation; but he
is beset by different opinions and written suggestions and proposals,
and all this worries him exceedingly. I asked him how the Court was,
and he said very reasonable, their opinions being influenced of course
by Aberdeen.
He talked with great disgust of John Russell's speech on the Irish
Church, how unfair it was as well as unwise, and how reckless of the
damage it caused to the Government, and the embarrassing and awkward
situation in which he thereby placed many of their supporters. These are
the general sentiments with regard to that speech, which was neither
more nor less than speaking the Durham letter over again, and,
considering what that famous letter cost him, he might have been
expected to steer clear of such a scrape. But he is more than ever the
creature of impulse and of temper, and he seems to have lost a great
deal of his tact and discretion, and certainly he is no longer fit to be
either head of a Government or leader of the House of Commons, and
perhaps the latter position in such a Government as this suits him still
less than the former would. When I came to town yesterday morning I
found that several of the Irish Roman Catholic members of the
Government, occupying subordinate offices (Messrs. Keogh, Monsell, and
Sadleir), had resigned in consequence of Lord John Russell's speech, but
an hour afterwards I learnt that they had been induced to remain by an
assurance from Lord Aberdeen that Lord John did not express the
sentiments of the Government on this subject.
Charles Wood brought on the India Bill on Friday night in a speech of
unexampled prolixity and dulness. There is not yet time to ascertain how
the plan is likely to be received, but I suspect it will meet with a
great deal of opposition, although, as it is more favourable to the
existing interests than was expected, it will very likely pass, as, if
Leadenhall Street was to go further, it would certainly fare worse.
_St. Leonards, June 7th._--I am here for Ascot, a lovely place and
divine weather. The affair with the Irish has ended as harmlessly as
anything so awkward could do. Mr. G. H. Moore asked some rather
impertinent questions in the House of Commons on Monday, which Lord
John answered in an easy, nonchalant, jesting manner. The House laughed,
nobody said anything, and there it ended, but the Brigade will probably
seek opportunities of showing their teeth and of revenging themselves on
Lord John. It has been rather mortifying for him, but he has taken it
very quietly, and Aberdeen's letter to Monsell was shown to him and
received his assent. The French are behaving very well about the Eastern
question, and I begin to think that it will in the end blow over, as
diplomacy will probably hit upon some expedient for enabling the Emperor
of Russia to do what his real interests evidently point out.
THE ALLIED FLEETS AT THE DARDANELLES.
_June 13th._--I came back from Ascot on Friday, having met Clarendon on
Thursday on the course, who gave me an account of the state of affairs.
On Saturday I met Walewski at dinner, and had much talk with him, and
yesterday I saw Clarendon again. The great event has been the sailing of
our fleet from Malta to join the French fleet at the mouth of the
Dardanelles, to the unspeakable satisfaction of the French Government,
who desire nothing so much as to exhibit to all Europe an _entente
cordiale_ with us; and Walewski said to me that, however the affair
might end, this great advantage they had at all events obtained.[1] The
Emperor of Russia will be deeply mortified when he hears of this
junction; for besides that it will effectually bar the approach of his
fleet to Constantinople, if he ever contemplated it, there is nothing he
dislikes and dreads so much as the intimate union of France and England.
His Majesty is now so greatly excited that nothing can stop him, and he
told Seymour the other day that he would spend his last rouble and his
last soldier rather than give way. Still he professes that he aims at no
more than a temporary occupation of the Principalities, and renounces
all purpose of conquest. The Russian army will therefore certainly march
in, and it will be the business of the other Governments to restrain
the Turks and prevent a collision, which Walewski thinks they can
certainly do.
Austria holds the same language that we do, but will not act. Clarendon
sent for Count Colloredo on Saturday (who never hears from Buol), and
set before him in detail all the dangers with which Austria is menaced
by the possibility of war breaking out in the East, and above all by
that of France being brought into the field in hostility with Austria.
In such a case the French would be quite unscrupulous, and excite all
the revolutionary spirit, which, though now repressed, is thickly
scattered over every part of the Austrian Empire, from Milan to Hungary.
Colloredo acknowledged the truth of the representation, and promised to
report textually to Buol what Clarendon said.
All now depends on the Emperor Nicholas himself. If he adheres to his
determination not to advance beyond the Principalities, time will be
afforded for negotiations, and some expedient may be found for enabling
him to recede without discredit, and without danger to his own
_prestige_ at home. The French and English feel alike on this point, and
are conscious that the Emperor has gone too far to recede. He is pushed
on by an ardent and fanatical party in Russia, and is not entirely his
own master. Both Governments are therefore willing to make allowance for
the exigencies of his position, and to assist him to the uttermost of
their power in getting honourably out of the scrape into which he has
plunged himself and all Europe.
[Footnote 1: Orders were sent to Admiral Dundas on June 2 to sail for
the Dardanelles, and the fleet proceeded to Besika Bay, together with
the French fleet.]
DIVIDED OPINIONS IN THE CABINET.
_June 22nd._--The Opposition papers (especially the 'Morning Herald' and
the 'Press,' Disraeli's new journal) have been making the most violent
attacks on Aberdeen and Clarendon, calling for their impeachment on the
ground of their conduct in this Eastern quarrel, particularly charging
them with having been cognisant of and approved of Menschikoff's
demands, which have occasioned all the hubbub. At last it was thought
necessary to make a statement in reply, which was done by the 'Times' on
Thursday last. The article was a good one, but contained an inaccuracy,
about which Brunnow wrote a long but friendly letter of complaint to
Clarendon. The day after this, another article was inserted to set the
matter right, with which Brunnow was quite satisfied; but the
explanations of the 'Times' failed to stem the torrent of abuse, and the
Tory papers only repeated their misrepresentations with greater
impudence and malignity than before. It was thought necessary a stop
should be put to this, and it was proposed to Clarendon to let
discussions come on in both Houses, moved by Layard in the Commons, and
Clanricarde in the Lords, which would afford an opportunity for the only
effectual contradiction, Ministerial statements in Parliament. Last
night I met him at the Palace, when we talked the matter over. He is
still of opinion that it is essential to delay the explanations and put
off all discussion till the matter is decided one way or another. He
thinks so in reference to the case itself, leaving out of consideration
the convenience of the Government; he thinks that any discussion in the
House of Commons will elicit a disposition for peace _à tout prix_,
which would seriously embarrass affairs, and only confirm Russia in the
course she is pursuing. I do not think so, but his opinions are founded
on what he hears Cobden has said, and on the _animus_ of the peace
party. He told me again what a task his is in the Cabinet, standing
between and mediating between Aberdeen and Palmerston, whose ancient and
habitual ideas of foreign policy are brought by this business into
antagonism, and he says the difficulty is made greater by Aberdeen's
unfortunate manner, who cannot avoid some of that sneering tone in
discussion which so seriously affects his popularity in the House of
Lords. He is therefore obliged to take a great deal upon himself, in
order to prevent any collision between Palmerston and Aberdeen. It
appears that Palmerston proposed on Saturday last that the entrance of
the Russians into the Principalities should be considered a _casus
belli_, in which, however, he was overruled and gave way. The Cabinet
did not come to a vote upon it, but the general sentiment went with
Aberdeen and Clarendon, and against Palmerston. He seems to have given
way with a good grace, and hitherto nothing has occurred of a
disagreeable character; on the contrary, both Clarendon and Granville
tell me Palmerston has behaved very well. Clarendon thinks (and in this
I concur) that the country would never forgive the Government for going
to war, unless they could show that it was absolutely necessary and that
they had exhausted every means of bringing about a pacific solution of
the question, and nobody here would care one straw about the Russian
occupation of Moldavia and Wallachia.
That all means have not been exhausted is clear from this fact. The
Austrians, who are more interested than anybody, have moved heaven and
earth to effect a settlement, and the Emperor of Russia has himself
asked for their '_bons offices_' for that end. They have entreated the
Turks on the one hand to strike out some _mezzo termine_ compatible with
their dignity and with their previous refusals of Menschikoff's terms,
promising that they will urge its acceptance on the Emperor with all
their force, and on the other hand they have implored the Emperor to
delay the occupation of the Principalities, so that by temporising,
mediation, and a joint action and a judicious employment of diplomatic
resources and astuteness, it is still possible some mode may be hit upon
of terminating the quarrel.
_July 9th._--For the last fortnight or three weeks little has occurred
which is worth noting. The Eastern Question drags on, as it is likely to
do. Aberdeen, who ten days ago spoke very confidently of its being
settled, now takes a more desponding view, and the confidence he has
hitherto reposed in the Emperor of Russia is greatly shaken. Clarendon
has long thought the prospect very gloomy, but they are still
endeavouring to bring about an accommodation. The question resolves
itself into this: what are the real wishes and views of the Emperor? If
his present conduct is the execution of a long prepared purpose, and he
thinks the time favourable for the destruction of Turkey, no efforts
will be availing, and he will listen to no proposals that we can
possibly make. If, on the contrary, he is conscious that he has got into
a dilemma, and he wishes to extricate himself from it by any means not
dishonourable to himself, and such as would not degrade him in the eyes
of his own subjects, then, no doubt, diplomatic astuteness will sooner
or later hit upon some expedient by which the quarrel may be adjusted.
Which of these alternatives is the true one, time alone can show.
Meanwhile the expense to which the Turks are put in the wretched state
of their finances will prove ruinous to them, and, end how it may, the
fall of the Turkish dominion has been accelerated by what has already
taken place. There has been a great deal of discussion about bringing on
debates on the Eastern Question in both Houses, but all the leading men
of all parties have deprecated discussion, and it was finally determined
last night that none should take place. Disraeli alone, who cares for
nothing but making mischief, tried to bring it on, but in the House of
Lords Derby took a different and more becoming course, and recommended
Clanricarde to give it up. Disraeli urged Layard to persevere. Granville
told me yesterday that while he lamented that Aberdeen was not a more
judicious and conciliating leader in the House of Lords, and was so
inferior in this respect to Lord Lansdowne, he liked him very much,
thought he was a very good Prime Minister, and, above all, anything but
deficient in political courage, in which respect he was by no means
inferior to Palmerston himself.
THE INDIA BILL CARRIED.
The Government have been going on well enough on the whole. Their
immense majority on the India Bill was matter of general surprise, and
showed the wretched tactics of Disraeli, as well as his small influence
over his party, for he could not get one hundred of the Tories to go
with him. A few small holes have been made in Gladstone's Budget, but
nothing of consequence. Tom Baring, however, told me he thought
Gladstone had made some great mistakes, and that Graham would have been
a better Chancellor of the Exchequer; but this I much doubt. Popularity
is very necessary to a Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Graham would
never have been so persuasive with the House as Gladstone.
WARLIKE VIEWS OF LORD PALMERSTON.
_July 12th._--The 'Times' newspaper, always famous for its versatility
and inconsistency, has lately produced articles on the Eastern Question
on the same day of the most opposite characters, one warlike and firm,
the next vehemently pacific by some other hand. This is of small
importance, but it is indicative of the difference which exists in the
Cabinet on the subject, and the explanation of the inconsistency of the
'Times' is to be found in the double influence which acts on the paper.
All along Palmerston has been urging a vigorous policy, and wished to
employ more peremptory language and stronger measures towards Russia,
while Aberdeen has been very reluctant to do as much as we have done,
and would have been well content to advise Turkey to accept the last
ultimatum of Russia, and so terminate what he considers a senseless and
mischievous quarrel. Clarendon has had to steer between these two
extremes, and while moderating the ardour of Palmerston, to stimulate
Aberdeen, and persuade him to adopt a course congenial to public opinion
in this country, which, however inclined to peace and abhorrent of war,
is not at all disposed to connive at the aggrandisement of Russia, or to
submit to the insolent dictation of the Emperor. The majority of the
Cabinet have supported Clarendon, and approximate more nearly to the
pacific policy of Aberdeen than to the stringent measures of Palmerston.
When the two articles appeared in the 'Times,' to which I particularly
allude, Clarendon approved of the first, and found great fault with the
other, while Aberdeen wrote to Delane and expressed his strong
approbation of the second, and his conviction that the public would
sooner or later take the views therein set forth. Clarendon tells me
that he has no doubt Aberdeen has on many occasions held language in
various quarters that was not prudent under the circumstances, and was
calculated to give erroneous impressions as to the intentions of the
Government, and he thinks that the Emperor himself has been misled by
what he may have heard both of the disposition and sentiments of the
Prime Minister, and of the determination of the House of Commons and
the country at large to abstain from war in every case except one in
which our own honour and interests were _directly_ concerned.
I had a long talk with Clarendon on Sunday, when he told me that the
chances of peace were a little better than they had been, inasmuch as
there seemed to be a disposition at St. Petersburg to treat, and the
Austrian Government was now in earnest bringing to bear all their
influence on the Emperor to accept reasonable terms of accommodation.
Colloredo brought him the copy of a despatch to St. Petersburg, which he
said was excellent, very frank and free in its tone. Austria seems more
fully sensible of the danger to herself of any war, which would
inevitably let loose the revolutionary element all over the world.
Clarendon has drawn up the project of a Convention which embraces all
the _professed_ objects of the Emperor, and which the Turks may agree
to; he sent it to Paris, whence Drouyn de Lhuys has returned it, with
the full concurrence and assent of the French Government, and it went to
Petersburg yesterday. The reception of this proposal will determine the
question of peace or war.
_July 14th._--G-- said to me this morning that Palmerston is beginning
to stir up matters afresh. I saw him yesterday morning at Holland House
in close confabulation with Walewski, with whom I have no doubt he
interchanged warlike sentiments, and complained of the lukewarmness of
Aberdeen and Clarendon. It is evident that he is _at work_, and
probably, according to his ancient custom, in some underhand way in the
press. His flatterers tell him that a majority of the House of Commons
would support _him_ and a warlike policy, and though he may wish to
believe this, and perhaps does, he will hardly go the length of trying
to break up this Cabinet, with the desperate hope of making another
Government himself, based on the policy of going to war. Certain
newspapers are always asserting that the Cabinet is divided and in
dissension, and at the same time accusing it of timidity and weakness,
urging strong measures, and asserting that, if we had employed such long
ago, Russia would have been frightened, and never have proceeded to
such lengths. But the Government are resolved, and wisely, to avoid war
as long as they can, and if driven on to it, to be able to show the
country that they had exhausted all means of preserving peace.
_July 18th._--At last there appears a probability of this Turkish
question being amicably settled. On Saturday I was told that despatches
were just come from Sir Hamilton Seymour of a more favourable character,
and representing the Imperial Government as much more disposed to treat,
with a real disposition to bring the negotiations to a successful issue.
My informant added that Palmerston predicted that none of the projects
and proposals which have emanated from the different Courts would be
accepted at Petersburg, which he thought they all would. Yesterday I saw
Clarendon, and found matters even in a still more promising state. After
the Cabinet Walewski went to him, and communicated to him very important
news (of a later date than Seymour's letters) from St. Petersburg, which
to my mind is decisive of the question of peace. It appears that both
France and Austria have been concocting notes and projects of a pacific
tendency to be offered to the Emperor. There have been several of these,
some framed at Constantinople, others at Paris. A short time ago the
French Government prepared one, which it submitted to ours; Clarendon
thought it would not answer, and told them so. They asked whether he had
any objection to their sending it off to St. Petersburg and Vienna and
making the experiment. He replied, none whatever, and though he did not
think it would succeed, he should rejoice if it did, as, provided the
affair could be settled, it did not matter how. In the meantime he drew
up his own project of a Convention, which went to Paris, and received
the cordial approbation of the Emperor; and this document is now on its
way to Petersburg. In the meantime the French project was sent there,
Castelbajac took it to Nesselrode, who read it very attentively, and
said that he liked it very much, but that he could give no positive
answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. The same afternoon he
saw the French minister again, and told him that he had laid the project
before the Emperor Nicholas, and that His Majesty was not only
satisfied, but grateful for it, 'non seulement satisfait, mais
reconnaissant,' and that the only reason he did not at once close with
it was that his ally, the Emperor of Austria, had also submitted a
proposal, and he did not like to take another from another Court
exclusively without previous communication with him. Clarendon thinks
that his proposal will be still more agreeable to the Emperor than the
French one, and that he will probably end in taking it; nor will there
be any difficulty in this, because our's is so fully concurred in by
France as to be in fact her's as much as our's.
SUCCESSION DUTIES BILL.
_July 31st._--Having been at Goodwood the last week, I have not troubled
myself with politics, either home or foreign, nor have any events
occurred to excite interest. The most important matter here has been the
division in the House of Lords on Monday last on the Succession Duties
Bill, on which the Opposition were signally defeated. For a long time
the Government were very doubtful of obtaining a majority, but their
whippers-in were more sanguine at last. Great exertions were made on
both sides, the Derbyites whipped up all the men they could lay their
hands on, and the Government fetched their ministers from Paris and
Brussels, and the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland. The majority was greater
than either side expected, and Derby and his crew were exceedingly
disconcerted, and Derby himself much out of humour. When Bessborough
went over to him after the division, and said 'Lord Aberdeen wants to
know if you will object to the Bill being read a third time on Thursday
next,' he pettishly replied, 'The Bill may go to the devil for all I
care; I shall take no further trouble about it.'
_August 1st._--I saw Clarendon as usual yesterday (Sunday), when he read
to me a letter from Sir Hamilton Seymour, giving an account of his
delivering to Nesselrode the Convention which Clarendon sent over, as
well as reading to him Clarendon's private letter, which was a stinging
one, but very good. Nesselrode said of all the projects he liked that
the best, and if it was tendered to them _from Vienna_, he thought it
might do as the basis of an arrangement, but he could give no positive
answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. At the Cabinet on
Saturday Clarendon read Seymour's letter, when his colleagues begged
they might see the private letter of his which was alluded to, and he
produced and read that likewise. It was generally approved of, but the
next day Palmerston wrote a note to Clarendon, in which he expressed the
warmest approbation of his note, and added that he had only refrained
from saying all he thought of it at the Cabinet lest _his_ approval
might make others think it was too strong. He added that he rejoiced
that the management of our foreign affairs was in such able hands, and
that, in fact, he (Clarendon) could do and say what Palmerston himself
could not have done. It was a very handsome letter, very satisfactory
both to Clarendon personally and as showing that there is no
disagreement on the Eastern Question in the Cabinet, or at least between
Palmerston and Clarendon, which is the essential point. Their union and
friendship are remarkable when we recollect their past antagonism and
Palmerston's jealousy of Clarendon, and the persuasion of both himself
and Lady Palmerston that Clarendon was always waiting to trip up his
heels and get his place. All these jealousies and suspicions were,
however, dissipated when Clarendon refused the Foreign Office last year,
since which time they have been the best of friends, and Palmerston was
quite satisfied at his having the Foreign Office. With regard to the
chances of a pacific settlement, the assurances from St. Petersburg are
all very favourable, but the acts of the Russian generals in the
Principalities are quite inconsistent with them, and between these
conflicting manifestations Clarendon is in no small doubt and
apprehension as to the result.
NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND TURKEY.
_London, August 8th._--Ever since last Monday, when Clarendon made a
speech in the House of Lords on which a bad interpretation was put in
reference to the question of peace or war, there has been a sort of
panic, and the public mind, which refused at first to admit the
possibility of war, suddenly rushed to the opposite conclusion, and
everybody became persuaded that war was inevitable. The consequence was
a great fall in the funds, and the depreciation of every sort of
security. So matters remained till the end of the week. On Saturday
afternoon I met Walewski, who told me he had that day received a letter
from Castelbajac (the French Ambassador at St. Petersburg), informing
him that the Emperor had signified his willingness to accept the
proposal which was then expected from Vienna, and last night fresh news
came that the proposal had arrived, and he had said he would take it, if
the Turks would send an ambassador with it, exactly as it had been
submitted to him. This I heard late last night, and Granville considered
it conclusive of an immediate settlement. But this morning I went to
Clarendon and found him not so sure, and not regarding the pacific
solution as so indubitable; there still remain some important matters of
detail to be settled, though certainly the affair wears a much more
favourable aspect, and there is every reason to hope it will all end
well. But while this proposal was concocted at Vienna, the Cabinet here
(last Saturday week) made some small verbal alterations in it, so that
ultimately it will not be presented for the Emperor's formal acceptance
word for word the same, and if he wants a pretext to back out of his
present engagement, he can therein find one, as he only agreed to take
it if it was word for word the same. Then it has not yet been submitted
to the Turks, and it is by no means sure they may not make difficulties,
or that Stratford Canning may not raise obstacles instead of using all
his influence to procure their agreement, so that Clarendon does not
consider that we are _out of the wood_, though he expects on the whole
that it will end well. If it does it will be the triumph of diplomacy,
and a signal proof of the wisdom of moderation and patience. Granville
says it will be principally owing to Aberdeen, who has been very staunch
and bold in defying public clamour, abuse, and taunts, and in resisting
the wishes and advice of Palmerston, who would have adopted a more
stringent and uncompromising course.
_August 9th._--At Court yesterday Aberdeen was quite confident of the
settlement of the Eastern affair, and Brunnow, who was there with the
Duchess of Leuchtenberg to see the Queen, very smiling. Clanricarde
interrupted Clarendon in the House of Lords, and made a violent speech.
Clarendon answered very well, without committing himself. The Government
are in high spirits at the prospect of winding up this prosperous
Session with the settlement of the Eastern Question: nothing else is
wanting to their success.
_August 11th._--I saw Clarendon yesterday. Nothing new, but he said he
fully expected Stratford Canning would play some trick at
Constantinople, and throw obstacles in the way of settlement. This seems
to me hardly possible, unless he behaves foolishly as well as
dishonestly, and it can hardly be believed that his temper and Russian
antipathies will betray him into such extravagant conduct. It is,
however, impossible to consider the affair as '_settled_.'
Yesterday all the world went to the great naval review at Portsmouth,
except myself. It appears to have been a fine but tedious sight, for
Granville set off at 5.30 A.M., and only got back at one in the morning.
_August 27th._--Since the 11th I have been absent from town, at
Grimstone for York races, then at Hatchford, and since that gouty. While
at York the Session closed with _éclat_ by a speech of Palmerston's in
his most flashy and successful style. John Russell gave a night at last
for the discussion of the Turkish question, and made a sort of
explanation, which was tame, meagre, and unsatisfactory. After some
speeches expressive of disappointment and disapprobation, Cobden made an
oration in favour of peace at any price, and this drew up Palmerston,
who fell upon him with great vigour and success. The discussion would
have ended languidly and ill for the Government but for this brilliant
improvisation, which carried the House entirely with it. It was not,
however, if analysed and calmly considered, of much use to the
Government as to their foreign policy, for it was only an answer to
Cobden, and Palmerston did not say one word in defence of the policy
which has been adopted, nor identify himself with it, as he might as
well have done. Though there was nothing in it positively indicative of
dissent and dissatisfaction, any one might not unfairly draw the
inference that, if Palmerston had had his own way, he would have taken a
more stringent and less patient course. However, nothing has been made
of this, and on the whole his speech did good, because it closed the
discussion handsomely, and left the impression of Palmerston's having
cast his lot for good and all with his present colleagues, as is really
the case.
TURKISH DIFFICULTIES.
The Session ended with a very flourishing and prosperous speech from the
Throne, and nothing was wanting to the complete success of the
Government but the settlement of the Turkish question, which, however,
seems destined to be delayed some time longer; for the Turks have
refused to accept the Vienna note, except with some modifications,
though these are said to be so immaterial that we hope the Emperor will
not object to them. But all this is vexatious, because it reopens the
whole question, causes delay and uncertainty, and keeps the world in
suspense and apprehension. Granville told me that what had occurred
showed how much more sagacious Aberdeen had been as to this affair than
Palmerston, the former having always maintained that there would be no
difficulty with the Emperor, but if any arose it would be from the
Turks; whereas Palmerston was always sure the Turks would make none, but
that the Emperor would refuse all arrangements.
_August 28th._--It seems the Turks, after a delay of ten days from
receiving the proposition, sent it back to Vienna, asking for some not
important alterations; but immediately afterwards they required a
stipulation for the evacuation of the Principalities, and guarantees
that they should not be occupied again. It is very improbable that the
Emperor will listen to such conditions. Nesselrode has all along told
Seymour that they (the Russians) mean in fulfilment of their pledges to
evacuate the Principalities, as soon as they have got the required
satisfaction, but that it must not be made _a condition_, and entreated
him to abstain from any demand which might give an air of compulsion to
the act, much in the same way as we have told Nesselrode he must not
attempt to make any stipulation about the withdrawal of our fleet.
Clarendon thinks that the Emperor is certain to reject the Turkish
terms, and that the Turks are very capable of declaring war thereupon;
for in their last communication they said that they were prepared for
'toutes les éventualités,' and he suspects that Stratford has not _bonâ
fide_ striven to induce them to accept the proffered terms. Their
rejection is the more unreasonable because the proposal is a hash-up of
Menschikoff's original Note, and that which the Turks proposed in lieu
of it, but in which the Turkish element preponderates, so that not only
are their honour and dignity consulted, but in refusing they recede from
their own original proposal.
The Queen is gone to Ireland, and Lord Granville with her, who is
afterwards to attend her to Balmoral. This is new, because hitherto she
has always had with her either the Premier or a Secretary of State.
Granville is to be relieved when circumstances admit, but at present
there is no other arrangement feasible. Aberdeen and Clarendon are both
kept in town till the question is settled. Newcastle got leave to go to
Clumber for his boys' holidays, and Her Majesty does not desire to have
the Home Secretary.
But Charles Villiers told me last night that Lord Palmerston's influence
and popularity in the House of Commons are greater than ever, and if
this Government should be broken up by internal dissension, he would
have no difficulty in forming another, and gathering round him a party
to support him. This is what the Tories are anxiously looking to,
desiring no better than to serve under him, and flattering themselves
that in his heart he personally dislikes his colleagues, and in
political matters agrees with themselves. They pay him every sort of
court, never attack him, and not only defer to him on all occasions, but
make all the difference they can between him and the rest of the
Government; nor does he discourage or reject these civilities, though he
does not invite them, or say or do anything inconsistent with his
present position, but he probably thinks the disposition towards him of
that large political party enhances his value to his own friends and
increases his power, besides affording to him a good alternative in case
anything should happen to break up the present Government or separate
him from it.
_September 2nd._--For the last week the settlement of this tedious
Turkish question has appeared more remote than ever, and Clarendon was
almost in despair when I saw him a few days ago, and the more so because
he suspected that Lord Stratford was at the bottom of the difficulties
raised by the Divan. However, according to the last accounts it would
seem that Stratford was not to blame, and had done what he could to get
the Turks to comply with the terms of the Conference. At this moment the
affair wears rather a better aspect, and my own belief is that it will
be settled. It is a great bore that it drags on in this way, creating
alarm and uncertainty, shaking the funds, and affecting commerce.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.
The Duke of Bedford, of whom I have seen nothing for a long time, called
on me a few days ago, and talked over the present state of affairs, and
the position of Lord John Russell. He said Lord John was now quite
satisfied with it, and rejoiced at his own comparative freedom, and his
immunity from the constant attacks of which he used to be the object;
and he is now conscious that, by the part he has acted in waiving his
own pretensions, he has not only not degraded himself, but has greatly
raised himself in public estimation and acquired much credit and
popularity, besides rendering the country a great service. He is very
well with his colleagues, and gratified at the deference shown him, and
the consideration he enjoys in the House of Commons. There, however, I
know from other sources, all the popularity is engrossed by Palmerston
and by Gladstone, and Lord John has foolishly suffered Palmerston to
take his place as leader very often, because he chose to stay away at
Richmond, and not come near the House.
The Duke took this opportunity of telling me what is now a very old
story, but which he said he thought he had never told me before, and I
am not sure whether he did or not. It was what happened to him at the
time of the formation of this Government last year, of which he was
evidently very proud. Just before the Derby Government broke down, and
before that reunion at Woburn of which so much was said, the Prince gave
him to understand that they should look to him for advice if anything
occurred, which they were every day expecting. The Duke was at Woburn,
and one morning when the hounds met there and half the county was at
breakfast in the great hall, word was brought him that a messenger had
come from Osborne with a letter for him. He found it was a letter from
the Prince, in which he informed him that this was despatched by a safe
and trustworthy hand, and nobody was to know of its being sent; that the
Derby Government was at an end, and the Queen and Prince were anxious
for his opinion on the state of affairs, the dispositions of public men,
and what course they had better take. The Duke had recently been in
personal communication with all the leaders, with Aberdeen and Lord
John, Newcastle, Clarendon, Lansdowne, Palmerston, and others, and he
was therefore apprised of all their sentiments and in a condition to
give very full information to the Court. He sat himself down and with
the greatest rapidity (his horse at the door to go hunting) wrote four
or five sheets of paper containing the amplest details of the sentiments
and views of these different statesmen, and ended by advising that the
Queen should send for Lords Lansdowne and Aberdeen--as she did. Lord
John had already told him he did not wish to be sent for. After this of
course he could not resent the advice the Duke gave; and happily Lord
John was firm in resisting the advice of some of those about him, and
acted on the dictates of his own conscientious judgement and the sound
advice of his friends.
OPPOSITION OF LORD STRATFORD.
_September 3rd._--I dined last night _tête-à-tête_ with Clarendon and
heard all the details of the state of the Turkish question, and read the
interesting correspondence of Cowley, with his accounts of his
conversations with the Emperor, and many other things. Clarendon is
very uneasy because he thinks the Emperor Nicholas' pride will not let
him accept the Note as modified by _the Turks_, though he would have
accepted the same Note if it had been presented originally by the
Conference. This is one danger. The next is one at Constantinople, where
there is a strong bigoted violent party for war, disposed to dethrone
the Sultan and replace him by his brother. This brother (of whom I never
heard before) is a man of more energy than the Sultan, and is connected
with the fanatical party. The Sultan himself is enervated by early
debauchery and continual drunkenness, and therefore in great danger
should he by any unpopular measures provoke an outbreak from the violent
faction. Clarendon thinks that Stratford has encouraged the resistance
of the Divan to the proposals of the Conference, and that he might have
persuaded the Turks to accept the terms if he had chosen to do so and
set about it in a proper manner; but Clarendon says that he has lived
there so long, and is animated with such a personal hatred of the
Emperor, that he is full of the Turkish spirit; and this and his temper
together have made him take a part directly contrary to the wishes and
instructions of his Government. He thinks he wishes to be recalled that
he may make a grievance of it, and come home to do all the mischief he
can. Westmorland wrote word the other day that Stratford's language was
very hostile to his Government and the Ministers of all the other Powers
at Constantinople, thought he had actually resigned, and reported the
fact to Vienna.
The most important question now pending is what to do with the fleets.
They cannot remain much longer in Besika Bay, and must either retire to
Vourla or enter the Dardanelles. The Emperor Napoleon wishes they should
enter the Dardanelles, but only a little way, and not go on to
Constantinople; and Clarendon takes the same view, proposing a _mezzo
termine_. The Emperor professes an earnest desire for a peaceful
solution, and the strongest determination to act in concert with England
to the end, and his views seem very sensible and proper. But,
notwithstanding this disposition, in which he probably is sincere,
there is reason to believe that he is all the time keeping up a sort of
secret and underhand communication with Russia, and the evidence of this
is rather curious. It appears that he has recently written a letter to
the Duchess of Hamilton, in which he says that he believes the Russians
will not evacuate the Principalities, and that he does not care if they
stay there. This letter the Duchess showed to Brunnow, and he imparted
it to Aberdeen, who told Clarendon, but none of the other Ministers know
anything of it. Clarendon wrote word of this to Cowley, and told him to
make what use of it he thought fit. In the first instance he said
something to Drouyn de Lhuys of the Emperor's entertaining views
different from our's, which Drouyn repeated to the Emperor, who spoke to
Cowley about it, and protested that he had no separate or different
objects, when Cowley, without mentioning names, told him what he had
heard of his having written. The Emperor made an evasive answer to this,
but gave many assurances of his determination to act with us heartily
and sincerely. This incident seems to have made a great impression both
on Cowley and Clarendon, particularly as both know something more.
Cowley says he knows that the Emperor has a private correspondence with
Castelbajac, of which Drouyn de Lhuys is ignorant, and Seymour writes to
Clarendon that he has observed for some time past a great lukewarmness
on the part of the French Minister in pressing the Russian Government,
and an evident leaning to them. As the Duchess of Hamilton has no
intimacy with Brunnow, it appears very extraordinary that she should
communicate to him a letter of the Emperor's, and such a letter, which
would be a great indiscretion unless he had secretly desired her to do
so; and all these circumstances taken together look very like a little
intrigue between the Emperor and the Russian Court, which would also be
very consistent with his secret, false, and clandestine mode of
conducting his affairs. It is probable enough that he may wish to keep
on good terms with Russia and at the same time maintain his intimate
connexion with England. That he is bent on avoiding war there can be no
doubt, and for very good reasons, for France is threatened with a
scarcity, and he is above all things bent on keeping the people supplied
with food at low prices; and for this object the French Government is
straining every nerve and prepared to make any amount of pecuniary
sacrifice; but the necessity for this, which absorbs all their means,
renders it at the same time particularly desirable to maintain peace in
Europe.
DISPOSAL OF THE FLEET.
There never was a case so involved in difficulties and complications of
different sorts, all the particulars of which I heard last night; but
the affair is so tangled, that it is impossible to weave it into an
intelligible and consistent narrative, and I can only jot down
fragments, which may hereafter serve to explain circumstances connected
with the _dénouement_, whenever it takes place. John Russell and
Palmerston are both come to town, so that a little Cabinet will discuss
this matter. Palmerston is extremely reasonable, does not take the part
of the Turks, but on the contrary blames them severely for making
difficulties he thinks absurd and useless, but is still for not letting
them be crushed. He is on the best terms with Clarendon, and goes along
with him very cordially in his policy on this question. Both Palmerston
and Lord John seem to agree with Clarendon on the question of the
disposal of the fleet better than Aberdeen, who is always for trusting
the Emperor, maintaining peace, and would be quite contented to send the
fleet to Vourla or Tenedos, and would see with regret the more energetic
course of entering the Dardanelles. However, there is no chance of any
material difference on this score, and I have no doubt, if the question
is not settled before the end of the month, the fleets will anchor
within the Straits and there remain.
I was glad to find that the Queen has consented to let Palmerston take
his turn at Balmoral, and Aberdeen has informed him that he is to go
there. It was done by Aberdeen speaking to the Prince at Osborne, who
said he thought there would be no difficulty. The Queen acquiesced with
the good sense she generally shows on such occasions, being always open
to reason, and ready to consent to whatever can be proved to her to be
right or expedient.
LORD STRATFORD'S GOOD FAITH.
_September 4th._--I went to Winchester yesterday, and fell in with
Graham in the train, so we went together and had a great deal of talk,
mostly on the Eastern Question. He thinks the Emperor of Russia will not
accept the Turkish alterations, and he is very hot against Stratford, to
whom he attributes all the difficulties. He has heard that Stratford has
held language hostile to the Government, and he is inclined to think not
only that he has acted treacherously towards his employers, but that
proofs of his treachery might be obtained, and he is all for getting the
evidence if possible, and acting upon it at once, by recalling him; he
thinks the proofs might be obtained through the Turkish Ministers, and
if they can be, he would not stop to enquire who might be displeased, or
what the effect might be, but do it at once. He acknowledges, however,
that it would not do to act on surmises or reports, and that nothing but
clear proofs of Stratford's misconduct, such as will satisfy Parliament,
would render such a step justifiable or safe. With regard to the fleets,
he says there is no reason why they should not remain in Besika Bay, and
it is a mistake to suppose they could not, and he is very decidedly
against their entering the Dardanelles in any case, because it would be
contrary to treaty and afford the Emperor of Russia a just _casus
belli_; and he maintains that his having (contrary to treaties and
international rights) occupied the Principalities affords no reason why
we should infringe them in another direction. When this question comes
to be discussed, his voice will evidently be for not entering the
Dardanelles, though he acknowledges that we cannot retreat while the
Russians remain where they are. He talked a great deal about Palmerston,
of whom he has some distrust, and fancied he has been in communication
with Stratford, and that he would concur with him in his proceedings,
and he expressed great satisfaction when I told him that Palmerston and
Clarendon were on the most cordial and confidential terms, and that the
former entirely disapproved of the conduct of the Turks (which is that
of Stratford) in regard to the Note. He thinks Palmerston looks to being
Prime Minister, if anything happened to Aberdeen, but that neither he
nor John Russell could hold the office, as neither would consent to the
elevation of the other. On the whole, he inclines to the opinion that
Palmerston has made up his mind to go on with this Government and his
present colleagues, that he means to act fairly and honestly with and by
them, and has no _arrière pensée_ towards the Tories, though he is not
sorry to have them always looking to him, and paying him, as they do,
excessive court. It ensures him great support and an easy life in the
House of Commons, where, however, he says Palmerston has done very
little this year, and he does not seem much impressed with the idea of
his having gained very considerably there, or obtained a better position
than he had before.
_September 8th._--I saw Clarendon on Sunday. There is nothing new, but
he said he would lay two to one the Emperor does not accept the modified
Note; it will be a contest between his pride and his interest, for his
army is in such a state of disease and distress that he is in no
condition to make war; on the other hand, he cannot without extreme
humiliation accept the Turkish Note. What will happen, if he refuses,
nobody can possibly divine. The four Ministers met to discuss the
matter, and were very harmonious; Palmerston not at all for violent
measures, and Clarendon said he himself was the most warlike of the
four. I told him of my journey with Graham and all that he had said. He
replied that he knew Graham was very violent against Stratford, but that
it would be impossible to make out any case against him, as he certainly
had read to the Turkish Minister all his (Clarendon's) despatches and
instructions, and he gave the most positive assurances, which it would
be difficult to gainsay, that he had done everything in his power to
induce the Turkish Government to give way to the advice of the
Conference, and whatever his secret wishes and opinions might be, there
was no official evidence to be had that he had failed in doing his duty
fairly by his own Government; therefore it would be out of the question
to recall him.
_September 20th._--At Doncaster all last week; I found Clarendon
yesterday very much alarmed at the prospect in the East. He thinks it
will be impossible to restrain the Turkish war party; he told me that
the Conference at Vienna had imparted their Note to the Turkish
Ambassador there, and both he and his dragoman had expressed their
entire approbation of it. They had considered this to afford a strong
presumption that it would not be unpalateable at Constantinople, but it
was not sent there because this would have occasioned so much delay, and
it was desirable to get the Russians out of the Principalities as
speedily as possible. The Russian generals had actually received orders
to prepare for the evacuation, which the Emperor would have commanded
the instant he heard that the Turks were willing to send the Vienna
Note. The Emperor Napoleon has again given the strongest assurances of
his determination in no case whatever to separate his policy from ours,
his resolution to adhere to the English alliance, and to maintain peace
_à tout prix_, which he frankly owns to be indispensably necessary to
the interests of his country. The Austrians are already beginning to
hang back from taking any decided part in opposition to Russia, and
while still ready to join in making every exertion to maintain peace,
they are evidently determined if war breaks out to take no part against
Russia, and this disposition is sure to be improved by the interview
which is about to take place between the Emperors of Russia and Austria.
PROSPECTS OF WAR.
_September 26th._--I have been at Hatchford all last week. I saw
Clarendon on Thursday before I went there, and heard that two ships of
each fleet were gone up the Dardanelles,[1] and that the rest would
probably soon follow, as the French were now urging that measure. He was
then going to Aberdeen to propose calling the Cabinet together, the
state of affairs becoming more critical every hour, and apparently no
chance of averting war. The prospect was not the brighter from the
probability of a good deal of difference of opinion when they do meet.
He showed me a letter from Palmerston, in which he spoke very coolly of
such a contingency as war with Russia and Austria, and with his usual
confidence and flippancy of the great blows that might be inflicted on
both Powers, particularly alluding to the possible expulsion of the
Austrians from Italy, an object of which he has probably never lost
sight. Meanwhile the violence and scurrility of the press here exceeds
all belief. Day after day the Radical and Tory papers, animated by very
different sentiments and motives, pour forth the most virulent abuse of
the Emperor of Russia, of Austria, and of this Government, especially of
Aberdeen.
[Footnote 1: The British vessels were steamers, the 'Retribution' and
another. There was at that time only one line-of-battle ship in each
fleet having steam power; all the other vessels of the line were sailing
ships.]