Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say—

1. That Grant in the — page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from

observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same

proportion.

2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there

dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that

the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably

lived above 30 years each.

3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out

of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but

1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons

there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30.

4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find

that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefore

till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer

than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30

to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we

find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.

_The Third Way_.

It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the plague,

but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple

whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto

adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total

is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two computations above

mentioned.

Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in

its place.

_Memorandum_. That two or three hundred new houses would make a

contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 already

mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of about

twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping at

Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and

lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the

owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and

government.

Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic · 第 59 / 72 题