To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz.—

1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic

report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those

houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh

part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole

housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burials

A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the

number of housing A.D. 1686.

2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, set

forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found above

84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four years

more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in

forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400.

3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and

6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have

been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in

Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 houses, and

in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have

been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol

proportions 105,000 houses.

Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within

the bills of mortality to be 105,315.

Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in

them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or

kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in

one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common

opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures.

As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant’s observation

in page — of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London’s families

there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above

ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had

upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of

England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case,

I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.

To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of

double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by

six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.

_The Second Way_.

I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both

healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were

23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that

the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730,

wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that

one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360

souls.

Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic · 第 58 / 72 题