AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,

_Tending to prove that in the hospital called L’Hôtel Dieu at Paris_,

_there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation_.

1. IT appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La

Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year 338,

which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in the same

year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, and that there died out of

that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as about half the said

5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want of as good usage and

accommodation as might have been had at La Charité.

2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charité 3,118, of

which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the same year

there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of which there died 8,397; and in

both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in their degrees

of mortality) there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491—in all

50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; and there died out of the same in

the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397—in all 14,027, the medium whereof is

7,013.

3. There entered in the said years into La Charité 2,647 and 3,118, in

all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 and 452,

in all 790, the medium whereof is 395.

4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that the

proportion of those that died out of L’Hôtel Dieu is double to those that

died out of La Charité (as by the above numbers it appears to be near

thereabouts), then it follows that half the said numbers of 7,013, being

3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but by the evil administration

of that hospital.

5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and rather to

be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but considering

the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled to the

belief of it, viz.:—

(_a_.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent out

and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the said

hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out of St.

Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209—that is to say, there were cured

in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals 461, and

consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 buried is

less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the part that died was

more than an eighth part; which shows that out of the most poor and

wretched hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion than out of

the best in Paris.

(_b_.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La

Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, making

in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s Hospitals,

London, there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables are part;

which shows that although there be more people in London than in Paris,

yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals as there did at

Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London were better than the best

at Paris; which shows that the poorest people at London have better

accommodation in their own houses than the best hospital of Paris

affordeth.

6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris

unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the value

of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, viz., the

value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, being about the

value of Argier slaves (which is less than the intrinsic value of people

at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects of France in that hospital

seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres sterling per annum, viz., 210,360

livres sterling, equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres.

7. It hath appeared that there came into L’Hôtel Dieu at a medium 25,063

per annum, or 2,089 _per mensem_, and that the whole stock of what

remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as may

appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be shortly

published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the sickly year 1679,

whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of months for the year 1678,

makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 above mentioned; which

number being added to the 2,089 which entered each month, makes 4,197 for

the number of sick which are supposed to be always in L’Hôtel Dieu one

time with another.

8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 sick

persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that hospital

(amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that so many lives

might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, and this by doing a

manifest deed of charity to mankind.

_Memorandum_.—That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and

those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it is

probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of Amsterdam.

Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic · 第 45 / 72 题