Every conflict has its economic moments and dimensions.
The current conflict in Macedonia perhaps even more so.
The USA and its Western allies regard Macedonia as a
bridge between Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania.
Hence the EU's plans for the revival of transport corridors
8 and 10 connecting these countries. If all goes well (and
nothing has hitherto), railways will connect Bulgaria to
Macedonia and river traffic will flow to Serbia from its
southern neighbours. All this is envisioned in the Stability
Pact. There are talks of an oil pipeline across Macedonia's
territory. A pacified Macedonia is fairly crucial to Serbia's
recovery and to the prospects of the whole region to
attract FDI.
NATO is afraid of Turkish-Greek clashes in the aftermath
of Kosovo and Macedonia. Turkey has increasingly cast
itself in its ancient role of "protector of the Balkan
Muslims". Greece is the only Orthodox-Christian member
of the EU and an old foe of the erstwhile Sick Man of
Europe from which it won bloody independence at the
beginning of the 19th century. Such clashes are likely to
destabilize the southern flank of NATO and block the
West's access to Iraq, the Middle East, oil-rich Central
Asia, and northern China. This will seriously dent the new
"Pacific and Middle East Orientations" of the Bush
Administration.
And what about the actual combatants?
Albanians and Macedonian crime gangs (in cahoots with
kleptocratic and venal local politicians) regard Macedonia
as a vital route for drugs, stolen cars, smuggled cigarettes
and soft drinks, illegal immigrants, white slavery, and
weapons dealing. These criminal activities far outweigh
the GDP of all the adversary states combined. This
conflict is about controlling territory and the economic
benefits attendant to such control.
Crime and war provide employment, status, regular
income, perks, and livelihood to many denizens of
Macedonia, Albania, and Bulgaria. They constitute an
outlet for entrepreneurship, however perverted. Fighting
for the cause and smuggling often means travel abroad
(for instance, on fund raising missions), five star
accommodation, and a lavish lifestyle. It also translates
into powers of patronage and excesses of self-enrichment.
Moreover, in ossified, socially stratified, ethnically
polarized, and economically impoverished societies, war
and crime engender social mobility. The likes of Hashim
Thaci, Ramush Harajdini, and Ali Ahmeti often start as
rebels and end as part of the cosseted establishment. Many
a criminal dabble in politics and business.
Hence the tenacity of both phenomena. Hence the bleak
and pessimistic outlook for this region. The "formal"
economies simply cannot compete. Jobs are not created,
the educated are often bitterly idle, salaries are minuscule
if paid at all, the future is past. Crime and politics (one
and the same in the Balkan) are alluring alternatives.
Moreover, the NLA and its political successor DUI is not
a monolithic entity. It is more like an umbrella
organization with serious and fracturing differences of
opinion regarding the ultimate goals of the insurrection
four years ago (2001) and the means to obtain these goals.
Roughly, NLA was made up of one third veteran Kosovo
fighters, some of them professional soldiers, who also
fought in Croatia, or in the Foreign Legion. These people
are bitter and disgruntled by what they see as the betrayal
of the West in refusing to guarantee an independent
Kosovo and the failure of the current Kosovar leadership
to integrate them economically into the emerging polity
there. Their motives for joining the fighting in Macedonia
were part emotional and part pecuniary.
Another third was made of unemployed, young Albanians,
mainly from Macedonia itself. Their fighting is self-
interested. They get a monthly salary and perks and,
lacking education and skills, they don't have much of a
choice outside the killing fields.
The rest are diehard, hardcore, idealists who either
fervently espouse a Great Albania, or would like to take
over Western Macedonian in a "constitutional coup"
which will grant them their own police force,
municipalities, institutions, universities, budgets, and
semi-political structures.
The NLA itself was not directly involved in criminal
activities, though a few of its members are. But the money
that financed it (from the Czech Republic, Switzerland,
Germany, and the USA) is tainted by drug dealing, white
slavery, illegal immigration, and the smuggling of
everything illicit, from cigarettes to stolen cars, to
weapons. In this they collaborate with politicians and
criminals in Macedonia - both Albanian and Macedonian.
Being a politician in the Balkan is an extremely lucrative
proposition. Both Albanian and Macedonian politicians
will abandon the peace process if they believe it leads to
electoral ruin. Given the current atmosphere, it pays to be
a pacifist. Virulent nationalism is a guaranteed vote
loser. But every re-election ticket still requires a modicum
of xenophobia, ethnic exclusivity, and radicalism. Here
lies the future.