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vannevar /van'*-var/ n.

A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering

concept, esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that

technologies develop linearly, incrementally, and in isolation

from one another when in fact the learning curve tends to be

highly nonlinear, revolutions are common, and competition is the

rule. The prototype was Vannevar Bush's prediction of `electronic

brains' the size of the Empire State Building with a

Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their tubes and

relays, a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor effect

had already been demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have

included magnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, videotex, and a paper from the late 1970s

that computed a purported ultimate limit on areal density for ICs

that was in fact less than the routine densities of 5 years

later.

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V =

vaporware /vay'pr-weir/ n.

Products announced far in advance of any release (which may or

may not actually take place). See also brochureware.

The Jargon File, Version 4.2.2, 20 Aug 2000 · 第 1738 / 1941 题