THREATENING CLOUDS
During the month of August 1875, the situation in Eastern Europe
suddenly assumed a threatening aspect, through the outbreak of an
armed insurrection against the Turkish rule in Herzegowina, actively
supported by Servia, Montenegro, and Bosnia, and countenanced
(at any rate in secret) by Russia. The Servians were foremost in
clamouring for war, hoping by the prowess of their own army in the
field of battle and the assistance of Austria and Russia to shake
off finally the hated rule of the Sultan.
The oppressed and persecuted Christians of the north-western portion
of the Balkan peninsula had watched the steady progress and constant
development of their brethren in Croatia, Servia, and Montenegro
with curious eyes, whilst they themselves were still groaning under
the heavy Ottoman yoke. Nor, indeed, was this feeling of despair
and exasperation confined to the Christian inhabitants alone, for
the Bosnian Mohammedans, who had hitherto fought for the Sultan
and whose ancestors, in order to retain their possessions, had
embraced Islam, now joined the Christian insurgents in aiming at
the separation of Bosnia and Herzegowina from the Ottoman Empire.
The secret debates in the Servian Skuptschina resulted in the
presentation of two addresses to Prince Milan, one advocating
the proclamation of peace to be published, the other offering
him 3,000,000 ducats and an army of 40,000 men to support the
rebellion--to be kept secret. Montenegro was only waiting for a
signal from Servia before commencing open hostilities.
The manifesto of the insurgents demanded the autonomy of Bosnia and
Herzegowina under a Christian ruler; in return for this they pledged
themselves to recognise the suzerainty of the Porte and to pay
tribute in the same way as the other vassal States of the Ottoman
Empire. An attempt by the Great Powers to maintain peace through the
mediation of their consuls failed owing to the insurgents refusing
to place any confidence in the execution of the reforms promised by
the Porte.
_To_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _October 3rd, 1875_.
"The disturbances in the Balkan peninsula, though apparently quieted
for the moment, are still far from settlement. The insurrection is
making great secret progress and gathering force like an avalanche.
As the original motive was neither a political nor a national one,
but merely a rebellion against oppressive taxation from which the
Christian peasant hoped to free himself by force of arms, peace will
not be restored until radical reforms put an end to the misrule of
the Pachas. Oriental Christians are thoroughly tired of Turkish
misgovernment, and but for the _entente_ of the Northern Powers
serious complications would long ago have arisen. As it is, they
are only delayed; they certainly are not entirely done away with.
Diplomacy is incapable of solving the Eastern Question; the East
alone can solve it on the field of battle by a combination of the
nations directly interested! Our present policy is to await the
advantage of events; the financial ruin of Turkey will then aid us
further.
"In Servia everything is topsy-turvy, and the end will be either
a war or a revolution. In any case serious times are coming for
us, and no one knows when a clear insight into this muddle will be
obtained. For my own part, I want to gain time in order to regulate
various questions of economy, such as the re-purchase of the
railways; I should also like to increase the military strength of my
country. Our new arms will not be delivered before spring."
_From the_ GERMAN CROWN PRINCE.
"Matters are progressing slowly but surely in the Empire. The
German nation adheres to the Emperor and the Empire, whilst many
Cabinets only yield to force of circumstances. In South Germany the
Württemberg Army Corps has been able to assimilate our principles so
thoroughly that it is almost on the level of a Prussian Corps. The
Bavarians, too, are very industrious, and take great pains to bring
their army organisation up to our standard, in spite of certain
hostile elements whose aim it is to frustrate this object, and who
have succeeded in preventing Prussian instructors from being sent
there, and Bavarian soldiers from coming to us to learn their work,
which Württemberg has done for the last eight years.
"I found your dear father as full of mental vigour as ever, but,
unfortunately, quite unable to walk; on the other hand, he possesses
remarkable skill in managing his invalid chair, in which he moves
about the room without any assistance! Your mother, brother, and
sister seemed happy and in good health, and the family circle was
uncommonly merry. A water-colour in your mother's room greatly
interested me; it represents you handing the insignia of his
office to a Metropolitan, and you look like a Father of the Church
yourself. It seems to me that in your part of the world a ruler has
more influence in the appointment of the high dignitaries of the
Church than here--a truly enviable state of affairs....
"I am enjoying these warm autumn days in peace and quiet, after
having drained the cup of inspections to the dregs. I am always
willing to fulfil my duties, but there are limits, especially when
one is no longer as young as one was. I had to attend manœuvres
in Württemberg, Bavaria, Silesia, and Mecklenburg, and as these
countries do not exactly lie close together, I dashed from one to
the other by rail, like a state messenger. Victoria and I spent six
enjoyable weeks in the spring in gorgeous Italy, just in time to
reassure the apprehensive political amateurs who were excited by
absurd rumours of war.
"William[18] is in the first form at the Cassel Gymnasium. We think
that the next two years, while he is growing up, will be beneficial
to his development; he likes being there. Henry really seems to be
taken with the idea of a sailor's life; we shall therefore soon have
to prepare him for this career."
[18] The present German Emperor.
* * * * *
The declaration of the agents of the guaranteeing Powers that they
would not protect Servia from invasion unless the aggressive policy
of the Ristitch Ministry was abandoned led to the fall of the
Ministry towards the end of September. This event was regretted by
none except the adherents of the _Red_ Party, who, however, retained
the reins of power. A saying current at the time made the following
striking comparison: "Servia is peopled with Ministers, like
Roumania!"
_To the_ GERMAN CROWN PRINCE, _October 22nd, 1875_.
"Your kind letter was a source of real joy to me. God's best gift
to humanity is loyalty; and I think He must have given you a double
measure. That we, who are separated from all our loved ones for
life, are doubly rejoiced to find ourselves remembered, I need
not tell you, nor that your sympathy with our eternal regret has
comforted us. At this moment we are suffering an unexpected and
uncommon trial; Elisabeth felt an ever increasing difficulty in
walking this summer, which we attributed to malaria, dampness, and
a tendency to rheumatism. For the last few days she has remained in
bed, lame in both feet. I need not tell you how great is our terror
after the experiences of both our families! The affair, however, has
now taken a turn for the better....
"I was greatly interested by what you wrote about your children:
so intelligent and simple an education must certainly make them
thorough in every way. I find it hard to think of you surrounded by
such big sons....
"Great excitement prevails just now in Servia; I think the young
Prince is either steering towards a war or a revolution! It is true
at present he is enjoying his honeymoon with his pretty wife,
who is closely related to all the great families of Moldavia. The
Servians would certainly have preferred to see their ambition
satisfied by the choice of a 'real Princess' as a consort for the
Prince...."
_To_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _November 27th, 1875_.
"... So long as the suzerainty was merely an empty form, restricted
to the payment of tribute or to impediments in affairs of treaties,
mints, and orders, Europe was justified in declining to hear our
complaints; but from the moment that our dependence on the Porte
hinders our economical development, hampers our financial reforms,
and damages our credit, we can reasonably demand that a sharp
political line of demarcation be drawn between an Empire which
is incapable of any reform and a flourishing young State which
has given Europe material guarantees during the last few years!
I recently had a conversation on the subject with the Austrian
representative, who admitted that this was the correct view of
the situation, but that a precipitate step might compromise the
excellent position which Roumania occupies to-day. I replied that,
before all else, I desired the preservation of peace, in order
to gain time for the execution of all necessary reforms, the
re-acquisition of the railways, and the construction of connecting
lines, and that it was the business of the Great Powers to secure
us a position which corresponded to the interest and dignity of the
country.
"Unfortunately the result of this Eastern tangle cannot be foreseen.
Do the three great Northern Powers really desire peace? And will
they ever succeed in restoring peace? There are too many factors
to be taken into consideration; Turkey seems to have been given up
at last (in the public opinion of Europe); even the English are
being forced to accustom themselves slowly to this idea, which will
certainly cost them much. When once considerations for the Porte are
abandoned, the solution of the Eastern Question, which frightens
the diplomats of Europe, will be materially simplified. Roumania
is destined to become the Belgium of the Lower Danube; why do the
Cabinet hesitate to declare this? We can wait; but, as far as Europe
is concerned, it would be a guarantee of peace in the East.
"I opened the Chambers to-day with a short and powerful speech from
the throne, which I am sure will make no unfavourable impression
in Europe. The disturbances in Herzegowina could not be passed
over in silence, but were mentioned with such caution that public
opinion cannot be disquieted. Our relations with the Turks are
strained: they will not grant us even the smallest concession; they
actually refuse to concede us the name Roumania; all this is to
their own disadvantage.... Greece has begun to stir; deputations
from Thessaly, Epirus, and Crete have appeared in Athens, and their
proposals have been very favourably received. The aggrandisement of
Greece is the only salvation for that unfortunate country."
_From_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _December 1875_.
"The Eastern Question will shortly be solved; what could only have
been expected to happen in the course of years will have already
come to pass. The chief point is that France and England have at
length begun to realise that the 'sick man' can no longer be helped.
Turkey perishes through the financial ruin she has brought upon
herself! For the distant observer it is interesting to note that
the eyes of all are turned towards Roumania, whose moderation is
highly appreciated everywhere. This moderation is the only means by
which Europe can be prepared for the approaching independence of
your country--an independence which must be founded on the belief
of its necessity, and when it comes, must come as a surprise to
nobody. I congratulate you on your political reserve and on the
art of waiting, the exercise of which you seem to have mastered in
opposition to the character of the Roumanian nation. Precipitate
action would be a great mistake, and could not be excused, even
were the peace of the country at stake; the whole of Europe would
discountenance Roumania if she were to arouse a Continental war....
"I would willingly send the Crown Prince an extract from your
letter, but I must tell you that he has at present no influence
either on home or on foreign policy, the direction of which lies
exclusively in the hands of the Chancellor.
"In this Eastern Question Germany only occupies the third place
after Russia and Austria; but, when the decisive moment for weighing
the respective interests of those two States arrives, you will find
that Germany has reserved for herself the option of placing her
weight on that side of the balance which seems most advantageous to
the development of the German Empire...."
* * * * *
The projected reforms, which were to place Christians and
Mohammedans on an equal footing--on paper--were published by the
Sublime Porte in December, but failed to awaken much appreciation
either abroad or at home, where the financial crisis assumed
threatening proportions. The Sultan's mind was at this time
apparently occupied chiefly by the idea that he had been bewitched,
and by constant demands for money, regardless of the fact that his
troops were dying by thousands from cold and hunger in Herzegowina,
and that the salaries of all officials remained months in arrear.
In spite of the so-called _entente_ of the Powers, a strong rivalry
was noticeable between Russia and Austria, especially with regard to
the eventual attitude of Roumania.
_To_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _February 8th, 1876_.
"The Austrian representative inquires what we shall do in the event
of Russian troops occupying the country; the Russian sounds us
to find out whether we repose any confidence in Austria-Hungary;
but both adjure us not to act hastily. They desire peace, because
they grudge each other the solution of the Eastern Question, and
because neither is prepared for war. It cannot be denied that we are
suffering from this indecision, and are exposed to every possible
danger. So much is certain, that Russia is concentrating troops on
the Moldavian frontier, and that General Ignatieff declared to the
Turkish Ministers in the presence of my representative, Prince Jean
Ghika, that his Government would seize the Danube Principalities as
a pledge as soon as the Turks occupied Servia and Montenegro! It is,
of course notorious that you cannot weigh every word of the Russian
Ambassador in Constantinople in a goldsmith's scales; yet we must
not ignore these heedless comments.... We are resolved to repel with
armed force any occupation, no matter from which side it comes. We
naturally cannot hold out against a Great Power, yet we shall be
able to preserve our standing point without, as formerly, meeting
the army of occupation as our saviours....
"Matters are not progressing favourably in Servia. The population
of that portion of the East has fixed its eyes on Montenegro, which
enjoys great authority amongst the Slavs, and great respect from the
Turks. Prince Nicholas, with whom I am on the best terms, is treated
with especial consideration and leniency by Russia and Austria, a
thing which unfortunately cannot be said of the young Milan."
* * * * *
On April 6, 1876, Prince Milan sent his uncle, M. Catargiu, to
inform Prince Charles that he had decided on war with Turkey, and
hoped that Roumania would not remain content with the _rôle_ of
a passive spectator, as it was to the interest of both countries
to free themselves from the Turkish suzerainty. Prince Charles,
however, did not abandon the strict reserve with which he had
hitherto received similar communications.
The startling news of a deficit of 30,000,000 francs, at a time when
the political situation rendered an increased expenditure on the
army essential, led on April 11, 1876, to the fall of the Catargiu
Ministry, which for five eventful and, on the whole, prosperous
years had assisted Prince Charles in the consolidation of the
Principalities. General Floresku was entrusted with the formation
of the new Cabinet, which, as it included two other generals,
was promptly dubbed the "Cabinet of Generals" by the Opposition
Press. Strange to say, the life of this _quasi_-military government
depended on the votes of the eight bishops, as the supporters of the
Government disposed of thirty-seven, and the Opposition thirty-four
votes in the Senate.
_To_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _April 26th, 1876_.
"The greatest excitement prevails here, and there are rumours of
conspiracies and revolutions, which do not, however, daunt me. I go
straight ahead and do my duty. My chief anxieties are the condition
of our finances and the serious situation in the East.... Servia is
in a state of great agitation, and is driving with all sails set
towards war. I warned Prince Milan not to expose his throne and
country to danger by a hasty step; but he declared that he could no
longer master the current, and had to choose between a war and a
revolution! Quite recently I called upon him to delay taking action,
and informed him that he must not reckon on Roumania, which would
observe the strictest neutrality. He received this exhortation in a
very bad humour."
* * * * *
Yet another step towards the coming war was the outbreak of a
revolution in Bulgaria, where a petition had been circulating
for several weeks to induce the Sultan to convert that Vilayet
into a constitutional kingdom. A _manifesto_ was issued by the
secret National Government of Bulgaria in Bucharest, calling all
Bulgarians to arms, as the hour of their liberation had arrived.
This _manifesto_ was published broadcast throughout the Bulgarian
Vilayet, and met with enthusiastic response everywhere.
In the meantime, the "Cabinet of Generals" was forced to resign
owing to its inherent weakness, and a "Ministry of Conciliation," as
Prince Charles termed it, was formed by M. Jepureanu on May 8, 1876.
Prince Charles welcomed the two Vice-Presidents of the Senate,
Prince Jon Ghika and Demeter Sturdza, whom he had not seen for more
than five years, with a few friendly words on the presentation
of an address from the Senate on May 14. A few days later the
Prince expressed his regret to M. Sturdza that he, whom he had
always trusted, should have adopted during the past five years an
anti-dynastic policy in personal opposition to the Sovereign. The
Roumanian statesman replied that the only excuse he could offer was
that he had misunderstood the Prince's motives, and thought that he
had allowed himself to be induced by the views of _one_ party to
measures which would be of no benefit to the country.
_From the_ GERMAN CROWN PRINCE, _May 22nd, 1876_.
"Ever since your last letter reached my hands the rapt attention
of Europe has been fixed on Stamboul and the seething Turkish
provinces. This state of affairs reminds me of the time before 1864,
when every conversation about the solution of the Schleswig-Holstein
Question ended thus: 'Let us wish the Danish King long life, that
the conflict may be delayed as long as possible.' But Frederick
VII. died suddenly, and misfortune was at the doors. The situation
to-day is the more favourable in that none of the Great Powers have
any longing to fight, because, God knows, enough blood has been
shed these last few years. So far as we Germans are concerned, the
Eastern Question possesses no immediate interest for us: our only
care is the protection of our countrymen, on whose account our
iron-clad squadron is now manœuvring."
* * * * *
A revolution in the palace at Constantinople resulted in the
deposition of Abdul Aziz in favour of Murad V. on May 30, 1876; but,
though the accession of the new Sovereign brought with it plenty of
promises of reform, the situation remained as threatening as before.
Almost every day fresh reports of unheard-of cruelties and massacres
were received from Bulgaria, where _bashi-bazouks_ were suppressing
the insurrection with barbarous severity.
The attitude of England now engrossed the attention of Prince
Charles, as the following extracts will show:
_From_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _June 9th, 1876_.
"The most noteworthy incident of the present day is the energetic
awakening of England, which has suddenly assumed, so to speak,
a position 'on guard,' and, relinquishing its passive attitude,
is commencing an aggressive policy against Russia. Should this
positive attitude of England secure the peace of the world, she will
deserve the highest appreciation; but whether the future position
of Roumania will be bettered by it is quite another question! The
disclosure of the Russian aims, contained in Ignatieff's proposals
(if, indeed, they are the least true), is very curious, and the gain
to Roumania by its elevation to a kingdom is very problematical. The
connection with the Porte is by no means as heavy a burden as the
supremacy of Russia!"
_To_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _June 24th, 1876_.
"The situation in Constantinople remains unaltered by the
change of rulers or the assassination[19] of the Ministers. The
system of corruption is so deeply rooted in every branch of the
Turkish administration that no Government will ever succeed
in exterminating it. The proposed reforms are and will remain
empty promises, which gain no credit either with Mohammedans or
Christians. The insurrections will, therefore, even in the most
favourable circumstances, continue to exist until the Ottoman Empire
is shaken to its foundations, if it is not overthrown entirely.
Smaller States will then arise, which will possess a more or less
protracted vitality.
[19] A fanatic forced his way into the Turkish Council Chamber on
June 15 and killed two Ministers--Hussein Avni and Reschid, besides
wounding the Minister of Marine.
"England has at last gauged the situation correctly: Lord Derby's
declaration in the Upper House, maintaining that the Treaty of Paris
only guarantees the integrity of Turkey from attacks from abroad,
but that none of the signatory Powers can intervene between the
Porte and the Tributary States, is most significant. If all the
Great Powers were to adopt this--the only correct point of view--the
Oriental conflict would be localised, and we should thus avoid
serious complications. The vassal States and the various Provinces
must be allowed to break their horns. If they succeed in emerging
victorious from the struggle with their suzerain, _tant mieux_! If
not, they do not deserve to be independent countries.
"The Servians will not wait for the 'green-table' decisions of
diplomacy: they will decide their fate themselves. Bulgaria is in a
state of great agitation; revolutionary committees have been formed
everywhere to incite the populace to throw off the Turkish yoke. We
are saddled with the thankless task of impeding the communications
of the committees here with those in Bulgaria, and with preventing
the invasion of Turkey by armed bands. We had repeatedly to act with
energy, and arrest the leaders with their troops; they were, of
course, liberated in a couple of days, but their weapons were seized.
"... Servia is ready for war, and inquiring what will be the
attitude of Roumania in the event of Turkish warships steaming up
the Danube? The Servians, moreover, are not on the best of terms
with Roumania owing to our strictly neutral attitude. Germany,
on the other hand, is convinced that the Turks, in spite of the
condition of their finances, are still capable of considerable
military efforts, and will annihilate the Servians in a war; and she
has, through the medium of her agent, congratulated the Roumanian
Government on its attitude...."
* * * * *
The insurgents in Herzegowina proclaimed the Prince of Montenegro
as their ruler, whilst the Bosnians placed themselves under Prince
Milan, who now forwarded a _quasi-ultimatum_ to the Porte, demanding
the incorporation of Bosnia in the Principality of Servia under
the suzerainty of Turkey. Roumania seized the opportunity of
reminding the Sublime Porte of certain disputes which still remained
unsettled, in spite of the loyalty shown by the Prince's Government
to the conventions. The following seven points were then submitted
to the Porte:
(1) The recognition of Roumania's individuality as a State.
(2) The addition of the Roumanian Agent to the Diplomatic Corps in
Constantinople.
(3) The regulation of the position of Roumanians in Turkey, and the
recognition of Roumanian consular jurisdiction over them.
(4) The recognition of the inviolability of Roumanian territory.
(5) The conclusion of extradition, commercial, and postal
conventions between Turkey and Roumania.
(6) The recognition of Roumanian passports.
(7) The definition of the Roumanian frontier at the Delta of the
Danube.
Servia declared war on June 30, 1876, followed a couple of days
later by Montenegro. The Servian forces amounted to 56,000 men,
concentrated on the line Alexinatz and Deligrad, whilst Prince
Nicholas mustered 24,000 men, in addition to 4000 insurgents from
Herzegowina. The Turkish force consisted of 97,000 men, divided
into four columns, under Suleiman, Mehemed, Achmed and Osman
Pachas, the commander-in-chief being Abdul Kerim. The fortune of
war did not favour the Servian insurgents under the Russian General
Tschernaiew, who were beaten near Babinaglawa on July 9, and
eventually forced to fall back behind the Servian frontier. The
Montenegrin troops, however, defeated Selim Pacha on the 16th and
17th July, and compelled Moukhtar Pacha to retire on Trebinje on the
29th. The course of the war showed that the Servians had completely
over-estimated both their military spirit and their material
resources for war, and they were only saved from annihilation by the
intervention of the Powers on their behalf in obtaining an armistice
for fourteen days, from September 16 to October 1.
In Roumania, in the meantime, a most inopportune attack was made on
the late Conservative Government by the Radicals, who demanded a
full inquiry into the causes of the deficit, and the prosecution of
twelve former Ministers for the three following offences:
(1) Violation of the Constitution and public liberty.
(2) Extravagance in the expenditure of public money.
(3) Abuse of power when in office.
The debates in the Chambers proved conclusively that the Ministry
was no longer able to stem the tide of party passion; and on M.
Jepureanu handing in the resignation of the Cabinet on August 4,
1876, M. Bratianu was entrusted with the formation of the new
Liberal Cabinet.
The reports of the _Daily News_ about the "Bulgarian Horrors,"
confirmed by Mr. Baring's report, caused a complete revolution in
the Turkophile sympathies of Great Britain. Mr. Baring stated
that fifty-four Bulgarian villages had been burnt down, and about
10,000 people massacred; no less than 2500 corpses were counted in
Batak alone. The English Secretary, however, pointed out that the
Bulgarians had also committed intolerable outrages on the Mohammedan
population, and took considerable pains to expose Russian intrigues
in the Vilayet.
Yet another change of rulers took place in Constantinople on August
31, 1876, when Abdul Hamid succeeded his brother, who was no longer
responsible for his actions. The new potentate wisely adopted many
economies, and endeavoured successfully to gain popularity with the
army.
The situation, however, became more and more serious, and a
suggestion was received from St. Petersburg that the Roumanian
Government should be sounded as to its attitude towards a
Russo-Turkish war. An evasive answer was sent, to the effect that,
whilst Roumania hoped for the continuance of peace, her sympathies
were with the Bulgarians and all Christians who suffered under the
Turkish rule; the Principalities would always value the friendship
of Russia.
M. Cantacuzino, the Roumanian Agent in Russia, reported that
influential circles in Russia were antagonistic to Roumania,
because she had not taken up a decided attitude towards the present
struggle. The whole of Russia, with the exception of the Czar
himself, was intent on war. Prince Charles decided at once to send
Bratianu and Col. Slaniceanu (Minister of War) to Livadia, where
the Czar, the Czarewitch, Prince Gortchakoff, and the Minister of
War, Miliutin, had assembled. On arrival at Livadia, M. Bratianu was
immediately pounced upon by Count Ignatieff to explain to him the
absolute necessity of an agreement regulating the passage of the
Russian army through Roumania.
Prince Gortschakow also referred to this question, and suggested
a non-political military convention between the two countries.
Bratianu replied that no difficulties would ensue if the war met
with the approval of the guaranteeing Powers, but that this consent
must be clearly and definitely expressed. The Russian Chancellor met
this opposition with the threat of treating Moldavia and Wallachia
as integral parts of the Ottoman Empire, and therefore liable to
invasion without further parley. Bratianu, by no means disconcerted,
represented that Russia could hardly commence the liberation of the
Turkish Christians by defeating a Christian army, and declared that
the Roumanian forces would oppose the passage of the Prut by an
invading force.
On parting, Prince Gortchakoff remarked: "We shall soon come to
terms if war ensues; and Roumania can only gain by it!" To this
Bratianu replied that a complete understanding would be in the
interests of _both_ States; and that he would willingly enter upon
negotiations to that effect.
The opinions of the Roumanian Ministers were divided on this point;
Bratianu considered an understanding with Russia to be the best
policy, D. Sturdza advocated the strictest neutrality, whilst
Jonesku, the Foreign Minister, urged close adherence to Great
Britain.
_From_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _October 16th, 1876_.
"I heard to-day of the mobilisation of the Roumanian army and
its concentration in Northern Moldavia! What is to be understood
by that? Is the march of the Russians through the country to be
opposed; or will Roumania side with Russia? All this is not clear to
me! The pusillanimous policy of England has completely entangled the
whole Turkish-Christian Question. Austria-Hungary is crippled by its
dualism, the German Empire is shrouded in aristocratic silence, and
only Russia perseveres with an iron persistence in her far-reaching
aims."
* * * * *
In reply to an _ultimatum_ presented by General Ignatieff, the
Sublime Porte conceded an armistice of two months, commencing
on November 1, to apply to the Servian and Montenegrin forces
alike. Prince Milan's troops, under the command of Tschernaiew,
had suffered defeat after defeat at the hands of the Turkish
troops, and were again saved from annihilation only by the direct
intervention of Russia.
_From the_ GERMAN CROWN PRINCE, _November 18th_.
"... I received the following from Prince Bismarck: 'The situation
of the Prince is serious, although I am not convinced that Russia
will proceed to war, if nobody endeavours to restrain her from doing
so.
"'In the event of war, I do not think Prince Charles ought to
resist the Russian proposals too seriously, nor throw himself into
their arms. It would be best if he shielded himself behind his duty
towards the Porte, and then yielded to force, which will probably be
applied from the North long before Turkey assumes the offensive.
"'He must not allow himself to be led away by ambition, but must
adhere to the treaties: his resources are not sufficient in the
face of two such armies to secure him the respect of the victor, if
he employs his forces. So long as he adheres to the treaties, he
can always appeal to Europe. That will always be a claim, though
not perhaps an indisputable one; still it will carry great weight
should the Russian campaign prove unfortunate eventually. I offer my
opinion here as if I were a Roumanian, and not a German Minister,
solely on account of my personal interest for his Highness!'"
* * * * *
Six Russian Army Corps were mobilised and placed under the command
of the Grand Duke Nicholas, as the Army of the South, on November
14, 1876. A circular note to the Powers assigned as the reason
for this step the futility of all diplomatic efforts to protect
the Christians of Turkey from the attacks of the Mohammedans. The
Czar, though desirous of peace, had therefore mobilised a portion
of his army, in order to obtain guarantees for the execution of the
principles proposed by Europe.
M. de Nelidow arrived at Bucharest from Constantinople on November
28, to negotiate with the Roumanian Government about the passage
of the Russian army, and the possible part which Roumania was to
play in the war with Turkey. The presence of the Russian agent was
naturally kept absolutely secret. Curiously enough, a Turkish agent,
Ali Bey, arrived on the same day to arrange a combination with
Roumania against Russia. Prince Charles declined to meet either of
these messengers, and instructed his Ministers to adopt a reserved
attitude, and to refer both to the Treaty of Paris.
Dem. Bratianu was sent to Constantinople in November to put the
Roumanian demands before the Conference which had assembled there,
and to endeavour to arrange a peaceful settlement. The Roumanian
demands were: the recognition of their neutrality; the regulation of
their attitude in the event of a war between Turkey and one of the
Guaranteeing Powers; and the cession to Roumania of a part of the
Delta of the Danube.
The efforts of the Conference to avoid the war came to a definite
end on January 19, 1877, when the Turkish Government declined every
proposal of the Conference as being opposed to the "integrity,
independence, and dignity of the Empire."
_To_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _January 20th, 1877_.
"The hour of danger is approaching, and Roumania will shortly be
the scene of great political and military events, which Europe
will follow not without agitation. In any case our position will
be difficult, as we shall be drawn into the complication whether
we wish it or no. Politicians here are much more anxious about the
result of a Russo-Turkish conflict and the future of Roumania than
I am, as I have marked out my path from the beginning:[20] _to
conclude a military convention with Russia, and, if necessary, to
fight with Russia against the Turks_. It is true that opinion here
is much divided on this subject, and that every effort is being
made _to separate us from Russia. There are Powers that demand that
we should protest against the entry of the Russians, and that we
should retire our army to Little Wallachia!_ You can imagine how I
received such a suggestion! Andrassy, with whom I am on friendly
terms, is acquainted with my views on this subject, and is not much
edified by them. The conflict with the Porte which the Constitution
has forced upon us was very welcome to me; Midhat is endeavouring
to allay it by every means; but since we demand more to-day than he
has the courage to give us, it is still an open question. The Turks
are concentrating considerable forces in Bulgaria, and are arming
the Danubian fortresses, which are in a miserable condition, with
feverish haste; the heavy guns are being brought up from the arsenal
at Constantinople and mounted in the forts, with much expenditure of
trouble, labour and money. All sorts of rumours are spread abroad
about the unsatisfactory condition of the Russian army, but my
information shows that it is ready for action, and certainly equal
to its opponent.... It is much to be regretted that Servia can take
no part in the war; it is only with the greatest exertion that a
corps of 15,000 men can be assembled, and they would assuredly show
no enthusiasm."
[20] All words in italics are written in ciphered French in the
original.
_From_ PRINCE CHARLES ANTHONY, _January 22nd, 1877_.
"On looking back over recent events the conviction is borne in upon
me that the fear which the Russian Colossus inspires in Europe,
coupled with the natural differences in the interests of the
Powers, have been the causes of the pitiful end of the Congresses
which started with such a flourish of trumpets. Had Europe been
united and less timorous, it might have intervened and begun those
Conferences at the time of the Servian War, instead of a whole
year later. Turkey could hardly have resisted if a pressure of all
the Powers had been applied at that time even without Russia, and
she would have conceded more than she can now afford to do after
her unquestionable successes in the Servian War and the complete
change in her interior economy. So much is certain after a long
and anxious period that the Conferences have resulted in a fiasco,
and that this fiasco has materially raised and strengthened the
_morale_ and authority of the Porte.... Roumania will be most deeply
affected by such a war, as the Russian base of operations can only
be Roumania; there is no other at her disposal. Resistance to Russia
is out of the question; you must therefore endeavour to reap the
greatest possible benefits from this impossibility. The material
advantages develop spontaneously, for the acquisition of money and
the increased value of all country produce will assume enormous
dimensions; the political benefits are, however, more difficult to
formulate. The permission to march through Roumanian territory, and
the establishment there of all that an army on an active footing
requires, is already half a declaration of war from Roumania to
Turkey. The latter, however, must recognise that Roumania cannot
prevent the entry of two or three hundred thousand Russians; the
only question that remains is whether Roumania will co-operate with
the advance of the Russian army and cross the Danube. I should
consider this most unwise, for in doing so Roumania will place
herself between two stools. If the Turks preserve their proverbial
powers of resistance, and so protract the war to an indefinite and
costly length, we have no guarantee that the Russians would not
conclude peace with the Turks in one way or another and abandon
Roumania, who would then be overwhelmed by Turkish malevolence.
"It is more than probable that both sides will soon become exhausted
in a localised war; the only question is, which of the two will give
in first. Russia's eyes will always be fixed on her own interests,
never on those of Roumania; and, since there is no such thing as
gratitude in politics, I recommend you to exercise the utmost
caution.
"Europe will not interest itself in a defeated and fallen
Roumania--it will only have regard for a free country which is
not tied down by treaties. Prudence and moderation are therefore
necessary at so critical a period, which will either prove to be a
wholesome era of transition for your country, or will bear the seeds
of its annihilation."
The efforts of the Russian diplomats in Constantinople now appeared
to be confined to delaying the advance of the Russian army until
a more favourable season of the year should have arrived. Prince
Charles Anthony thus sketched the possible results of the coming war
in a letter to his son dated March 1, 1877:
"Russia will hardly gain great triumphs--a few military
successes may be achieved, but certainly none of any political
importance. The army and the Slav element must content
themselves with a small modicum of glory, whilst the Czar
Alexander may think himself lucky in returning to peaceful and
normal circumstances, and in having mastered a movement which
is of the greatest danger to Russia. The only tangible result
of the whole Russian initiative will, perhaps, be that the
suzerainty of the Porte over Roumania is transferred to Russia.
"Roumania would thereby be supported by a stronger and more
stable Power, with, perhaps, more freedom at home and abroad,
but would certainly not achieve her longed-for recognition as an
independent and equal State.
"The forms of the suzerainty would perhaps be more equable and
more pleasant, but the dependence, though tolerable, would
always be felt.
"This would merely be an exchange of _rôles_. Europe would then
admire Russia's moderation, and would doubtless concede every
demand made along the lines I have suggested. The sacrifice of
Roumania would thus be a message of peace, on which would hinge
the return to the universal _entente_."
A final attempt to settle the Eastern Question by means of the
London Protocol met with as little success as the efforts of the
Conference; and the Russo-Roumanian Convention was signed on April
16, 1877, by Baron Stuart on behalf of the Czar, and M. Cogalniceanu
on behalf of Prince Charles. The following were the chief articles
of the Convention:
(1) The Russian army to be granted a free passage through Roumania,
the Russian Government paying all expenses connected therewith.
(2) The Government of the Czar pledges itself to maintain and
protect the actual integrity and political rights of Roumania.
(3) The special regulations as to the march of the Russian troops to
form the subject of a special treaty.
(4) The Roumanian Government to obtain the ratification required by
the Constitution, and to proceed at once to the execution of the
stipulations of the treaty.
The Turkish reinforcements of the forces at Rustchuk and Schumla
caused the greatest excitement in Bucharest, indeed in the whole
of Roumania. Public opinion, influenced perhaps by the recent
failure of the Servian army in the field, declined to place any
confidence in the military efficiency of the Roumanian troops. The
incessant and exaggerated rumours of Turkish raids and passages
of the Danube created something like a panic in the capital, and
several over-anxious inhabitants quitted the country rather than run
the risk of experiencing the horrors of a Turkish invasion. Prince
Charles, however, had every trust and confidence in the ability of
his army to prevent the Turks from crossing the Danube.