THE JESTS OF CHANCE

There is one story in Field-Marshal Sir William Robertson's

autobiography that is sure of a place among the legends of celebrated

men. It is that in which he tells by what a lucky accident he was

saved, when "a raw recruit," from deserting from the Army, of which

he was destined to become one of the most illustrious ornaments.

Another young private who occupied a bed in the room in which he

slept stole the civilian clothes in which Robertson contemplated

making his escape, and vanished. I daresay Robertson said some harsh

things at the time about the thief, who had put temptation out of his

way; but he must have thanked him almost every day of his life since.

For in taking away Robertson's clothes the thief had put a

field-marshal's baton in his knapsack.

Not many of us have the luck to become field-marshals through the

purloining of our trousers, but few of us are without experience of

the part which trifles that seem of small moment at the time play in

our careers. "Character," says Victor Hugo, "is destiny," and a

greater than Hugo has observed that it is not in our stars but in

ourselves that we are thus and thus. This is no doubt true, though

the doctrine may be carried too far. For example, I think that

Hazlitt is a little unjust to Charles James Fox when he says that the

history of his failure is written in his fluctuating chin. I doubt

whether, if the parts had been reversed, Pitt would have done any

better. But no one can compare the easy, good-natured profile of Fox

with the haughty masterfulness of Pitt's without knowing which of the

two would win in an encounter of will-power where the circumstances

were even.

I remember Lord Fisher once describing to me with great admiration a

wonderful feat of navigation by which that famous sailor, Admiral

Wilson, had brought the fleet through great perils in a fog, fighting

all the way with his obstinate chief officer over charts and

calculations. "But Wilson had his way," said Fisher. "You see, his

jaw stuck out half an inch farther than the other fellow's." There

is much virtue in a jaw that will stand no nonsense. You can read

the whole history of the most wonderful one-man achievement in the

annals of trade in the stubborn chin of Lord Leverhulme, just as you

can read the tale of Mr. Balfour's political purposelessness in his

amiable but indecisive countenance. "I can see him now," wrote a

friend quoted in Mrs. Drew's _Some Hawarden Letters_. "I can see him

now, standing at the top of the great double staircase, torn with

doubts which way to go down. 'The worst of this staircase,' he would

say, 'is that there is absolutely no reason why one should go down

one side rather than the other. What am I to do?'"

But though destiny is much a matter of chins, the Imp of Chance who

comes in and steals our trousers has no small part in determining our

lives and shaping events. I have read that Wallenstein in his youth

had a crack on the head which he, no doubt, felt was a misfortune,

but it gave him just the surgical treatment that converted him from a

dullard into a great general. Loyola got wounded in battle, and,

thanks to that circumstance, found his true vocation and became the

creator of the greatest religious order in history, and, with Luther,

perhaps the greatest maker of history for six centuries. Newton,

according to the legend, sees an apple fall and starts a train of

thought that reveals one of the profoundest secrets of the universe.

I suppose no one who has advanced far in life can fail to recall

trifles that shaped the whole course of his career--a broken

engagement, a misdirected letter, a chance meeting. At the time it

seemed nothing, and now, in the retrospect, it is seen to have meant

everything. The chin may dictate events within limits, but the Imp

of Chance has as often as not the final word.

There is an interesting speculation on the theme of what might have

happened in Mr. Asquith's book on the origin of the war. Referring

to the appointment of Baron Marschall von Bieberstein as German

Ambassador to London in 1912 and his death a few months later, he

says that he is confident, so far as one can be confident in a matter

of conjecture, that if Marschall had lived there would have been no

European War in 1914. I fancy that is a common view in informed

quarters. Marschall stood intellectually, as well as physically,

head and shoulders above the petty men with whom the Kaiser had

surrounded himself, and it is inconceivable that he would have

allowed his country to drift into war under an entire misapprehension

as to the mind and power of this country.

It is in this way that the chapter of accidents plays havoc with the

affairs of men. All the woes of Ilium sprang from an elopement, and

it is a commonplace that if Cleopatra's nose had been a shade

longer--or shorter, for that matter--the whole story of the ancient

world would have been altered. I suppose the most momentous

political event in the history of the last thousand years was the

rupture between England and America, which is said to have happened

as the result of a shower of rain. But for that rupture, the British

Commonwealth to-day would include the whole North American Continent,

and its word would be sovereign over the earth. Perhaps the seat of

authority would have been in Washington, instead of London, but

wherever it was it would have stabilised this reeling world and given

its people a security that now seems unattainable. The speculation

which attributes the enormous calamity of the loss of America to a

shower of rain is more fanciful, but hardly less reasonable, than

that which Mr. Asquith advances in regard to the European War. The

Earl of Bute was the evil genius of George III., and the inspiration

of his disastrous policy. And the origin of his sinister power was a

storm at Epsom which kept the royal party from going home. The

Prince of Wales needed someone to make up a hand at cards to pass the

time while the shower lasted, and Bute, then a young man, being

handy, was selected, and from that incident ingratiated himself with

the Prince and still more with the Prince's wife. She established

his influence over her son whom later, as George III., he led into

the ruinous part of personal government which culminated in the

Boston Tea Party, the War of Independence, and the Republic of the

Stars and Stripes.

Chance does not, of course, always play a malevolent part like this.

It sometimes works as if with a superb and beneficent design.

Lincoln, on the threshold of fifty, regarded himself as having failed

in life and he died at fifty-six, one of the world's immortals. It

was the quite unimportant incident of his debate with Douglas that

threw him into prominence on the eve of the crisis which, but for his

wisdom and magnanimity, would have left America like Europe, a group

of warring States. But in the end chance betrayed him. On the night

he was murdered the faithful guardian who had shadowed and protected

him throughout the war was sick, and his place was taken by a

substitute who became absorbed in the play, and allowed Booth to slip

unseen into the President's box and fire the fatal shot. But it

might be argued that even in this felon betrayal, chance only

completed the splendour of its design, for Lincoln's work was done,

and it was the circumstances of his death that threw the nobility of

the man into relief for all time.

And while the accidents of life so often seem to take control of

events, it is no less true that our most deeply calculated schemes

sometimes turn round and smite us. When Queen Victoria's eldest

daughter married the King of Prussia's eldest son, it was universally

agreed that a grand thing had been done for the peace of the world,

and when later a child was born, the rejoicings in London, as you may

read in the contemporary records, were like those that welcome a

great victory. That child was the ex-Kaiser William, now an exile in

Holland. In the light of to-day those rejoicings of sixty odd years

ago read like a grim comment on this queer and inexplicable world.

It is one of the agreeable features of the diverting adventure of

life that our triumphs so often come clothed in misfortune and that

the really big things that happen to us take the shape of trifles.

Whenever we are tempted to inveigh against things that go wrong, we

might do worse than remember the Field-Marshal's trousers.

Many furrows · 第 52 / 68 题