The King, who was not expected in town till the 19th, came up suddenly
on the 18th, immediately on the receipt of the intelligence of the
Ministerial defeat. On the 20th, General Cuninghame, writing to Lord
Temple, informs him that the Duke of Grafton had resigned the day
before, having intimated his intention to do so on the preceding Monday;
that he had just learned that Mr. Fox and Lord North had adjusted their
differences; and that the outline of an Administration had been actually
agreed upon--the Devonshires to have the Treasury, probably in the
person of the Duke of Portland, and Fox, Chancellor of the Exchequer.
"The political world," adds General Cuninghame, "is in a ferment, and a
few days must decide the complexion of a new Administration. Every one
hopes and believes it will be on a broad bottom; and your Excellency
will probably be at liberty to choose your situation." On the next day,
the same correspondent announces that Lord Shelburne "is determined to
stand the thunder of the House of Commons," on a resolution which was to
be brought forward that night, to show that the peace was inadequate. He
goes on to state that the issue of the debate was doubtful, and that
Lord Shelburne was by no means disposed to give up without a struggle.
"If the Opposition should be beat from there not being sufficient
evidence before them, an inquiry will be instituted. No man at this hour
pretends to say how the question will be decided. One may get a beat
[bet?] of hundreds at either side. So many difficulties arise in
arranging a new Administration, that I now understand Lord Shelburne
will not easily yield his pretensions." In the few hours that elapsed
since he had written the former letter, General Cuninghame had reason to
doubt the correctness of his information respecting the validity of the
agreement amongst the opponents of Government. "I now doubt," he
observes, "very much of the possibility of arranging Mr. Fox's and Lord
North's friends in such a manner as to make their system carry the
appearance of permanency." The inconstancy of the reports in circulation
reflected faithfully the uncertainty that hung over the action of all
parties; and in that uncertainty lay the principal, perhaps the only,
ground of hope that was left to Lord Shelburne.
That the negotiations in the meanwhile for a coalition had advanced to
something like an intelligible point, and that the Duke of Portland
looked with some confidence to the Treasury, is placed beyond all doubt
by the following confidential communication, in which His Grace, in
anticipation of the establishment of the new Ministry, proposes to Lord
Temple his continuance in office as Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland. It would
have been so utterly inconsistent with the high character of Lord Temple
to have accepted this office under circumstances which he held to be
injurious to the moral influence of the party leaders, and out of which
no solid or durable system of administration could be rationally
expected, that it will not excite much surprise to find his Lordship
declining the flattering offer of the Duke of Portland.
It should be remembered, in reference to Lord Temple's reply to His
Grace's "secret and confidential" communication, that the Duke of
Portland had held the office of Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland under the
second Rockingham Administration, and was, therefore, qualified to
appreciate the inconveniences arising from frequent changes in the
Government. It is to that circumstance Lord Temple alludes, when he
recalls to his Grace's recollection the "jealousy which had been felt in
so many parts of Ireland at his resignation."