Pall Mall, Feb. 6th, 1783.
My dear Brother,
Townshend's messenger is nowhere, waiting for this letter; and
as, by a mistake, I was not till now informed of his going
to-night, I have only time to write a few lines, just to
acknowledge the receipt of your letter of the 2nd instant, and
to say a very little upon the singular situation of things here.
To-day, when I delivered your despatches to Townshend, I entered
into a conversation with him on this subject, saying that you
trusted to him for information, &c., &c. He perfectly agreed
with me in thinking that it could not go on without some new
arrangement of some sort or other. At the same time, he said
that he knew of no negotiation going on with Lord North. That
there was no truth in the reports which have circulated so much
that Jenkinson was to be Chancellor of the Exchequer, Pitt
Secretary, and himself Paymaster. That he had good reason to
believe that there had been a negotiation between Lord North and
Fox, but that it was now off. That, for his own part, he saw no
reason for proscribing all Lord North's people from _office_,
but he should not like to see them in _Government_.
Upon this text it is not very easy to reason. The prevailing
idea certainly is that Lord Shelburne is making overtures to
Lord North. Whether those are to go to Cabinet arrangement, or
only to provision for Lord North's family and offices of
emolument, &c., for George North, &c., &c., I do not know; if
the former, it is clear that he keeps it from the knowledge both
of Townshend and Pitt; the latter, I have very good reason to
believe, would object to it.
In the meantime a storm is brewing, and will probably burst when
the preliminaries come to be considered, unless some event takes
place before that time. Lord Keppel and the Duke of Richmond
both assign the badness of the peace for their reason for
resigning. Lord Carlisle does the same, but I understand his
great objection goes to the Loyalists, to whom he considered his
personal honour engaged. The report of the day is, that the Duke
of Grafton has followed their example. Of this Townshend said
not one word to me, nor did I hear it till after I had seen him.
This rather makes me disinclined to believe it, though his Grace
has certainly had a kind of flirtation with Fox for some days
past.
Upon the whole, the only thing which I can at all venture to
pronounce with certainty, is that it cannot do as it is; and
that if Fox's people continue, as I believe they will, to stand
aloof, they must either all resign, or fill up the vacancies as
fast as they occur, day after day, with Lord North's people. _En
quo discordia cives prodaxit miseros._
In the case of an immediate resignation, Lord North's people
will come in by storm (Fox not having the least chance): in that
of gradual admission, they will sap the Government by degrees.
In either case, there is too much reason to fear the return of
the old system of corruption on one side, and faction on the
other.
With regard to the peace, I own I cannot think it so bad, all
things considered. If one measures it by an _uti possidetis_, it
is surely advantageous; and I see no reason for being at all
confident that another campaign would have put us in a better
situation to negotiate. In this line, I had intended to have
stated my ideas on the day of debate in the House of Commons;
but I am deterred by reading your opinions, and by a fear, I
believe too well grounded, that you will take an active part the
other way; and I cannot reconcile myself to the appearance of a
Scotch family. If it had not been for this, I think it would
have had a handsome appearance in the hour of their distress,
and would not have had a bad effect in Ireland; if, indeed, we
are any longer interested there, which I begin to doubt. Adieu,
my dearest brother.
Ever most affectionately yours,
W. W. G.