AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE OF READINESS CAPABILITY OF FEDERAL,
STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS FOR EARTHQUAKE RESPONSE
A. INTRODUCTION
An earthquake of catastrophic magnitude, with or without credible
warning, happens suddenly. The potential for disaster, however, does
not occur suddenly. The degree of preparedness and commitment to
comprehensive planning and mitigation programs for the inevitable
event will largely determine the degree of hardship to be experienced
through loss of life, human suffering, property destruction, and the
other related economic, social, and psychological aspects of
disruption to day-to-day community activities. The impacts can be
reduced substantially from current expected levels through the
development and implementation of improved and more widely practiced
earthquake hazards reduction measures. These include _coordinated
emergency preparedness plans and procedures_, _earthquake prediction
and warning systems_, _improved construction techniques_, and
_effective public education and information programs_.
The State of California Office of Emergency Services (OES) and FEMA
conducted an analysis of the readiness capability for potential
catastrophic earthquakes in California at the Federal, State, and
local government levels. The planning of 22 counties and 38 cities, of
34 State agencies, and of 17 Federal organizations were reviewed with
the following objectives: (a) identify opportunities for improvement;
(b) provide a basis for making decisions that would strengthen program
direction and planning efforts; and (c) specify resource needs and
potential legislative initiatives. Annex 2 summarizes current Federal
and California earthquake planning.
The environment in which preparedness planning in California occurs is
characterized by the following observations of public expectations and
attitudes:
» There is widespread public support for government
action.
» Most people have some ideas as to what government should
be doing.
» There is understanding of the need for hazard reduction
as well as emergency response planning.
» People are willing, in the abstract, to have government
funds spent for hazard mitigation.
» The public is not very satisfied with what government
officials have done.
» Public officials perceive that current preparedness
plans and response are inadequate at best.
As discussed below, the review indicates that all is not well in
earthquake plans and preparedness. Current plans and preparedness are
judged to be adequate for the "moderate" earthquakes most likely to
occur frequently in California. By moderate it is meant an event
causing property damage on the order of $1 to $2 billion. Such an
event, however, will severely tax existing resources and provide a
major test of management relationship among different governmental
jurisdictions and levels. For a catastrophic earthquake, current plans
and preparedness are clearly inadequate, leading to a high likelihood
that Federal, State, and local response activities would become
disorganized and largely fail to perform effectively for an extended
period of time.
B. STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Although there are widely differing approaches, local emergency
planning in California generally consists of a basic plan and a series
of contingency plans. The basic plan establishes the authority, sets
forth references, addresses hazard vulnerability, states the planning
assumptions, establishes an emergency services organization, assigns
tasks, formulates a mutual aid system, and directs the development of
specific support annexes. For those hazards identified in the basic
plan, a separate contingency plan is then developed to address the
unique nature of the hazardous event. The contingency plan contains
service support plans for each of the functional operations, including
detailed standard operating procedures. The planning efforts of local
jurisdictions are coordinated with adjacent jurisdictions and the
California OES for consistency.
A plan is not considered complete without the support annexes which
make the plan operational. The survey undertaken for this assessment
disclosed that approximately 93 percent of the jurisdictions examined
have existing, basic plans; 50 percent have completed annexes; 28
percent of the basic plans addressed an earthquake hazard
vulnerability; 35 percent have planned for earthquake contingency; and
only 1 percent (one city) has a plan to respond to an earthquake
prediction.
At the State level, the California OES, as an integral part of the
Governor's Office, functions as his immediate staff and coordinating
organization in carrying out the State's emergency responsibilities.
Specific emergency assignments have been made to 34 State agencies by
the OES Director through a series of Administrative Orders. During
emergencies the activities of these agencies and departments are
coordinated by the California OES.
The State OES is also responsible for maintaining and updating the
California Emergency Plan (CEP) and associated readiness plans. As in
the case of local plans, the basic document is supported by
operational annexes as listed below:
CONTINGENCY MUTUAL AID
Earthquake Fire and Rescue
Earthquake Prediction Law Enforcement
Oil Spill Medical
Nuclear Blackmail Utilities
Reactor Accident Military Support
Radioactive Material Incident
Flood
SUPPORTING SYSTEMS EMERGENCY RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT
Warning Construction and Housing
Emergency Broadcast System Economic Stabilization
Emergency Public Information Food
Intelligence Operations Health
Radiological Defense Industrial Production
Manpower
Petroleum
Telecommunications
Transportation
Utilities
Based on this planning concept, the review assessed quantitatively the
preparedness activities of the 34 State agencies that have
preparedness responsibilities in accordance with the CEP. The
quantitative data are listed in the following table.
TABLE 4
QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF STATE PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Number of Percent of
Preparedness Element Agencies 34 Agencies
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Existence of Plan 22 65
Conduct of Exercises 27 79
Public Education Activities 10 29
Public Information Activities 9 26
Operational Capability 32 94
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The quality of the plans, activities, and operational capabilities
were then evaluated on a scale of 1 (expected to fail/inadequate) to 5
(expected to succeed well/adequate). The qualitative results are shown
below.
TABLE 5
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF STATE PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES
----------------------------------------------------------
Preparedness Element Capability Rating
----------------------------------------------------------
Planning 2.67
Exercises 2.64
Public Education 1.44
Public Information 1.50
Operational Capability 2.91
----------------------------------------------------------
It should be emphasized that these ratings apply to the State's
_present_ level of planning and preparedness for response to a major
destructive earthquake (magnitude 8), not a moderate (San
Fernando-type) event.
C. FEDERAL RESPONSE
At the Federal level the principal capability to respond to a
catastrophic earthquake in California resides in FEMA, the agency
responsible by law to coordinate Federal activities in all
emergencies. FEMA has developed a basic plan for supplemental Federal
assistance for a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area. This
plan, however, covers only the emergency phase of response (first few
days of efforts to save lives and protect property). In addition, FEMA
is participating in a broader effort concentrating in Southern
California. This cooperative effort is getting under way with State
and local governments, other Federal departments, voluntary agencies,
practicing professions, business and commercial interests, labor,
educators, and researchers. It is expected to develop an effective
program to respond to an earthquake or a credible earthquake
prediction in that part of the State. The emphasis is being placed on
_public safety, reduction of property damage, self-help on the part of
individuals, socioeconomic impacts, improved response and long-range
recovery planning, mitigation activities, and public participation for
both the post-prediction and immediate post-earthquake periods_. This
pilot effort is expected to be usable in other highly seismic areas of
California as well as in other States.
In the event of a catastrophic earthquake, a substantial number of
Federal agencies would provide support to and be coordinated by FEMA.
Illustrative are the following:
1. Department of Defense (DOD)
Initially, local military commanders may provide necessary
support to save lives, alleviate suffering, or mitigate property
damage. Normally, additional DOD resources would not be committed
until a presidential declaration of an emergency or major disaster.
When this occurs, the Secretary of the Army is DOD Executive Agent for
military support. The Commander, Sixth U.S. Army, at the Presidio, San
Francisco, has been further delegated authority to coordinate disaster
relief operations in the western portion of the United States.
Extensive planning and coordination have taken place between the Sixth
U.S. Army and FEMA Region IX. DOD emergency functions include: _damage
survey_, _search and rescue_, _emergency medical care_,
_identification and disposition of dead_, _emergency debris
clearance_, _emergency roads and bridge construction_, _airfield
repair_, and _identification and demolition of unsafe structures_.
Specific units have been identified to respond to an earthquake in any
of the major population centers of California. For example, at this
time the following units would be prepared for commitment within 8
hours after a disaster is declared by the President:
» Six medical units with a 1,320 bed capacity
» Seven helicopter units with 90 utility helicopters and
36 medium helicopters
» One Infantry brigade of 1,500 personnel
» Two engineer units with 78 pieces of heavy equipment
» Two transportation units with 124 cargo trucks and
trailers
These as well as additional DOD assets could be made available,
contingent on defense priorities.
2. The National Communication System
This Agency's plan, the "National Plan for Communications Support
in Emergencies and Major Disasters," provides for planning and using
national telecommunications assets and resources during presidentially
declared emergencies and major disasters. The plan, which has been
exercised repeatedly in past disasters, provides the management
structure and the communications staff to support FEMA. Restoration
priorities have been assigned to all critical circuits.
3. Department of Transportation (DOT)
DOT has established an Office of Emergency Transportation. This
office has developed and maintains comprehensive emergency plans and
procedural manuals for natural disasters and other civil crises. It
constantly monitors the civil transportation system for indications of
potential adverse impacts from all hazards. It conducts scheduled
periodic training and readiness exercises for DOT emergency personnel
and maintains quick response cells and emergency operating facilities
at DOT headquarters and in the field to provide an immediate reaction
capability. The system has been activated several times in the recent
past (e.g., Three Mile Island, 1979 Energy/Fuel Crisis, Independent
Truckers' Strike, and the Mt. St. Helens eruption).
D. CONSIDERATIONS FOR IMPROVING RESPONSE CAPABILITY
Earthquake prediction has not been incorporated into existing plans.
Response to predictions in the current environment, if given, would be
_ad hoc_. The State of California has only a rudimentary plan and the
Federal Government none. The City of Los Angeles has examined the
problem extensively, but only considers its own jurisdiction and has
not produced an actionable plan. Current planning for the recovery
period is incomplete, uncoordinated, and not functional. State and
local governments have done little to plan for the recovery period
when, following the emergency lifesaving phase, efforts and resources
are concentrated on restoring the functioning of the community. They
presume that the Federal Government will "step in" after a
presidential declaration. The Federal Government has an untested draft
plan for the San Francisco area that is not fully coordinated with the
State plans. Current Federal plans are geared to the provision of
assistance on the order of a few hundred million dollars. Thus, there
is little confidence that they would function under the requirements
for tens-of-billions-of-dollars and concomitant service demands.
Both Federal and State agencies need to commit the financial resources
and assignment of personnel to maintain and enhance earthquake plans
and preparedness. Earthquake preparedness, although responding to high
damage expectation, is still based upon a relatively low probability
occurrence. When it is in competition with pressing social needs for a
portion of limited resources, social needs tend to prevail at all
levels of government. Without a clear commitment, future development
of earthquake preparedness, as in the past, is problematic and its
implementation is in considerable doubt. The Federal earthquake
preparedness effort needs to focus on a high state of readiness.
History in the area of natural hazard mitigation suggests that
assignment of responsibility, even by the President, when not followed
by leadership and regular oversight over the allocation of financial
resources, seldom leads to programs which can be expected to function.
The same weakness is evidenced at the State and local government
levels with few exceptions. The stresses likely to occur in emergency
response programs after a catastrophic earthquake will be such that
effective response will require a cooperative, integrated effort among
different jurisdictions and levels of government.
Experience in other areas of planning and preparedness, particularly
for civil defense, indicates that damage to existing programs occurs
when the Federal Government raises expectations of the public and of
other levels of government and then fails to follow through with
implementation and funding. It is better to maintain the _status quo_
with minor changes at the margin than to announce substantial program
initiatives and not meet their requirements.