to a _maximum_ of 162,550,000 _francs_, we have been desirous of
meeting, on the data generally admitted, all the objections hitherto
made relative to the difficulties consequent upon the choking up of
the entrance of the jetties and the accretions in the basin of the Red
Sea or in the gulf of Pelusium. We have been fearful of appearing too
bold in pronouncing, in an absolute manner, in favour of dispensing
with the sluices and the works which they necessitate. We need not call
attention to the fact, that the present is but a precursory scheme;
we reserve it for our definitive scheme, to examine an entirely new
theory founded on the experience of the most distinguished engineers of
France, and on the conclusive opinion now before us of M. Renaud, chief
engineer of seaports. We have hopes then, that it will be possible to
dispense with the system of sluices, and that we shall thus effect an
economy of several millions in the execution of the work. M. Renaud has
ascertained that when the sluices open into the sea they lose nearly all
their efficiency, and that in many cases they are worse than useless,
and become detrimental. They deposit, in front of the channel, the
matter which they bring down, and when this matter is not carried off
by traversing or littoral currents, it forms, sooner or later, deposits
or bars, whose summits are above the bed of the channel. It is thus
that the mouths of rivers which flow into seas without tides, are, with
few exceptions, without depth of water; the alluvium which is carried
along the coasts coming within the action of the current of the river,
is driven by that current to a certain distance from the shore, and
deposited in proportion as the current loses its power. Being then less
easily held in suspension than when near the coast, where the depth is
less, they are also less easily carried off by the littoral current;
deposits are formed and rise, until the combined action of the waves and
the current no longer permit any fresh matter to subside.
Whatever may be thought of this explanation, it must be admitted that
the alluvium brought by the sea, no less than that brought by rivers,
prevents our obtaining a depth of water at the mouths of those rivers.
Artificial sluices, therefore, appear to have no power to preserve a
permanent depth of water.
If then we are permitted to renounce the idea of having recourse to the
use of sluices for maintaining the depth of water at Pelusium and at
Suez, it will be very easy by means of dredges to ensure the continuance
of this depth, as is already done at the entrance of several ports, and
particularly at that of the port of Cette.
The employment of dredges will allow of a considerable saving in the cost
of establishing the Canal. The portion of the expenses required for the
sluices would certainly be greater than the capital representing twenty
times the annual expense of dredging.
Another saving (of 3,750,000) might be effected by dispensing with the
intended breakwater or defensive mole at Pelusium. The channel as it is
planned will probably be considered accessible in all winds which are
likely to create a rough sea; there is no occasion then for us to trouble
ourselves with the fear of seeing ships miss the entrance. There are a
great many important seaports, Alexandria for instance, where a ship
cannot enter after sunset, in a much worse nautical condition than that
at Pelusium will be, and near which nevertheless there is no sheltered
anchorage. We may name the port of Liverpool, which is not accessible at
low water for large ships. We may also mention the port of Havre, into
which large ships can only enter during three hours out of twelve, and
yet the number of disasters on those coasts is not relatively greater
than elsewhere.
We have not deducted from the amount of expenditure any of the returns,
which will be received during the execution of the works, and which will
not fail to be important:—thus the inland Canal of communication being
finished in the first campaign, there will be the transport of all the
agricultural produce along it for five years. In the second year the
Canal going as far as Suez, there will be, for four years, the lock dues
and the profits of transport, which may be valued at an average annual
value of 1,000,000 _fr._ There will be, moreover, the profits arising
from the cultivation of the lands, which will increase every year, and
will not be of less average annual value than 1,000,000 _fr._ This
already makes an income of 8,000,000 _fr._
Finally, during the last two years, passage may be afforded, as was done
on the Caledonian Canal to all ships of small tonnage, and to all steam
boats that may choose to take advantage of the cutting, and in this
manner a return of several millions will be obtained.
We might have brought these sums forward as a deduction from the
interest payable to the shareholders, but we have preferred leaving them
disposable.
ESTIMATE OF THE REVENUES.
It is impossible not to recognise _à priori_, the immense advantages
offered to commerce by the new route that we present, and it appears from
thence quite natural to assume, that the navigation formerly carried
on in the Red Sea, and which continued to prosper, notwithstanding the
discovery of the Cape, will resume yet more propitiously the ancient
route; since there will no longer be any trans-shipment, no longer any
transport across the desert, no longer any obstacle whatever. Steam
and sailing vessels will find, on the contrary, an opportunity of
revictualling in Egypt with fresh provisions, which are found there in
abundance at the lowest prices. Steam vessels will take in coals there,
which will cost less by half than at present. Finally, travellers who
now prefer the route by the Cape, on account of the inconvenience of
trans-shipment, the fatigues of the desert of Suez, and the high price of
the passage, will no longer hesitate to adopt the shortest line, when it
shall be more easy, more certain, and more economical than the other.
There are, however, timorous minds from which has emanated the opinion,
that the Maritime Canal at the best, could only serve for steam
navigation, for sailing vessels would find, according to them, no
advantage from the moment they should be subjected to passage dues; and
the proof they say, is, that the rate of freightage has sunk so low
_viâ_ the Cape, that it could bear no deduction arising from any passage
dues whatever.
Let us therefore examine the facts attentively, in order to resolve this
question in a manner at once clear and practical that shall remove all
doubts.
In treating of the navigation on the Red Sea, as compared to that
on the ocean, to reach India, we think we have demonstrated that at
present, with the means of steam-towing, with the aid of lighthouses,
and the knowledge acquired of the winds, the currents, and the coasts
of the Red Sea, a sailing vessel will meet with more facilities on this
latter, than on the Ocean in the passage of the Cape; but let us admit
the circumstances to be equal on either side, by way of the Canal 2000
leagues at least are economised in the passage between Europe and the
regions of the extreme East. This saving is equal to a saving of two
months out of five. For, in making the passage of 480 leagues from
Marseilles to Alexandria, the ships consume ten days on the average at
the favourable season.
A diminution of two months out of five, must necessarily produce a
corresponding advantage in all the expenses which press upon merchandize:
thus—
1. The average value of imports and exports between Europe and the
extreme East, being about 600 _fr._ per ton, the saving in the interest,
on the capital employed at the rate of six _per cent._ will be 6 _fr._
per ton.
2. A ship of 500 tons burthen, costs at the least, fully equipped,
150,000 _fr._, and pays seven _per cent._ _per ann._ to the assurance
companies when it navigates the Chinese waters. It only makes at present
two voyages in the year including the return; with the Maritime Canal it
will be able to make three, which will effect a saving to the owner of
two _per cent._ that is 3000 _fr._ or 6 _fr._ per ton.
3. The capital represented by the ship ought to yield an interest arising
from the freight, of at least twelve _per cent._ on account of wear and
continual reparation. By enabling the ship to make an additional voyage,
the Canal gives the means of saving four _per cent._ that is, 6000 _fr._
or 12 _fr._ per ton.
4. This same ship has a crew of fifteen men, exclusive of the captain.
Taking the pay of each man at 70 _fr._ per month, and that of the captain
at 600 _fr._, it will be found that a saving will be made of 2500 _fr._
which is 5 _fr._ per ton.
5. Although it may be said that the insurance upon merchandize is not
determined by the duration of the voyage, but by the risk which the ship
runs, according to the route it takes; we do not the less persist in
maintaining that the facilities of navigation in the Red Sea being at
least equal to those _viâ_ the Cape, the rate of insurance must be lower
upon merchandize exposed two months less to the chances of navigation.
This rate is usually two and a half _per cent._ upon merchandize going to
China; we do not think we are beyond the truth in assuming a diminution
of half _per cent._ in favour of the passage by the Canal, which would be
a farther saving of 3 _fr._ per ton.
By adding up the figures thus obtained, we find a saving of 32 _fr._ per
ton on merchandize which shall pass by the Canal: this _minimum_ figure
of 32 _fr._ calculated for a diminution of 2,000 leagues; will increase
in proportion to the distance gained by the ports nearest to the cutting;
for Constantinople, for instance, the saving will be more than double, on
account of the 4300 leagues gained by her navigation. Leaving 22 _fr._ of
the increased profit to the advantage of navigation, there will remain
10 _fr._ per ton for passage dues in favour of the Company, a figure
which is less than two _per cent._ on the estimated average value of the
merchandize, at 600 _fr._ per ton. Now, silks, indigos, coffees, sugars,
tobaccos, gums, cottons, woollens, wines, spirits, &c. &c. are of greater
value than this figure; there is only rice and coal which do not reach it.
It will doubtless be objected to our calculations, that the freights to
Australia being on an average only 50 to 60 _fr._ per ton on merchandize,
if the 32 _fr._, which we show as an advantage presented by the Canal,
were forestalled in the freight, there would only remain 20 to 30
_fr._ per ton for the shipowner, who would evidently suffer loss. It
will thence be concluded that our valuations are exaggerated. But at
present the shipowner who despatches his vessel to Australia at the
rate of 60 _fr._ per ton, is equally at a loss by the merchandize; and
if he consents to make the speculation, it is for the advantage that
he finds in the freight of the passengers. Well, the speculation will
not be altered by opening the Canal; the shipowner will still lose on
the merchandize and gain by the passengers: only he will lose less than
at present by the one, and gain more by the other. It is the same for
China and the other parts of the extreme East. The freights are so low
in relation to the distance and the chances of navigation, that loss
appears to result from them. But it is clear that then the shipowners
are interested in those operations of commerce that are very lucrative,
and are moreover indemnified by the passage of numerous emigrants,
functionaries, &c. &c. The opening of the Maritime Canal, far from
being hurtful to these operations, will, on the contrary, be eminently
advantageous to them, and the shipowners will find their ultimate profits
increased by it. Our calculations, therefore, remain intact, since
they are based upon practical data, known to every one, and which are,
moreover, according to the general usages of commerce.
Let us now endeavour to give an idea of the commerce in imports and
exports, which is carried on between Europe and India, China, &c.
Trade has so much increased for a period of ten years, and especially
during the last three years, in consequence of the discovery of gold
in Australia; and every year its developement is such, in relation to
the preceding year, that it is impossible to settle its statistics even
approximately. For the figures given for one year are already erroneous
before they make their appearance. It is, however, possible to throw
some light upon this question, which has been the subject of so much
controversy, and to give a _minimum_ figure.
Mac Culloch, in his statistics of 1842, gives the following figures for
the tonnage of merchandize imported and exported by the commerce of
England.
_Imports._ | _Exports._
Tons. | Tons.
Cape of Good Hope 4950 | 16,408
Eastern Coasts 152 | 240
Ports of the Red Sea ---- | 409
Islands of Cape Verd 1118 | 2883
St. Helena and Ascension 330 | 3977
Mauritius 28,650 | 16,397
Singapore and Ceylon 191,378 | 202,101
Java 2346 | 8672
Philippine Islands 3411 | 301
Other islands of India 1141 | 686
China 32,818 | 28,297
Australia 22,865 | 51,234
New Zealand 1341 | 9651
Islands of the South Sea 388 | 1018
----------+----------
Tons 290,888 342,274
290,888
-------
Grand total Tons 633,162
Mr. Anderson, of the East India Company, estimates the
tonnage of English ships in relation with the places
dependent on the East India Company, for the year 1841
at Tons 727,587
Deducting the commerce with the Cape and the other places
in the vicinity, estimated at 30,309
There remain, Tons 697,278
To which he adds the tonnage of the ships trading to
Batavia and the other Dutch and German possessions 200,000
-------
Grand total Tons 897,278
-------
Thus Mr. Anderson gives, probably for the same year, a tonnage greater by
a third than Mr. Mac Culloch.
We will now compare some of these figures with those that have been
officially collected by M. Arnaud Tison, delegate from the Chamber of
Commerce of Rouen, in his travels in China during the years 1850-54.
In 1851, 976 ships entered the ports of Australia,
measuring Tons 234,215
In the same year 1014 ships cleared the ports,
measuring Tons 263,894
-------
Total, tons 498,109
-------
This figure is seven times greater than that given by Mr. Mac Culloch,
and as the discovery of gold was not yet made at that time, it may
be said that at present the figure given by M. Arnaud Tison ought to
be doubled to be correct. The total value of imports and exports was
110,000,000.
For China, the single port of Shang-Hai exported in 1851, 35,000 tons of
tea, which is more than the figure given by Mr. Mac Culloch for all the
produce imported from China.
The commerce of the two single ports of Shang-Hai and Canton, in imports
and exports, without reckoning opium, was estimated in 1851 at 400 to
500,000,000 _francs_, which answers nearly to 800,000 tons, taking the
average value per ton at 600 _fr._, and which makes twelve times as much
as the estimate given by Mr. Mac Culloch.
At Manilla, the commerce in 1851 was 51,773,232 _fr._ of which about
24,000,000 were exports, and the remainder imports. This figure answers
to the activity of 86,300 tons, taking the average value of the ton at
600 _fr._ It is more than twenty times the estimate of Mr. Mac Culloch.
For Java we have not been able to procure any positive information,
but according to the periodical publications (_Revue des deux Mondes_,
_&c._) and according to the reports of travellers, the increase of
business every year is much greater than in the Philippine Islands. We
shall not therefore be charged with exaggeration, in fixing the figure
of commercial activity in these colonies at 100,000,000 or about 150,000
tons, for the year 1851.
Mr. Anderson estimated the commerce between Europe and Indo-China at
£26,000,000, or 650,000,000 _francs_, thus distributed:—
The commerce between Europe and the Indies is
estimated at Exports £12,000,000
Imports 8,000,000
The commerce with Singapore, China, Java, &c.
&c. at 6,000,000
-----------
Amount of the commerce with places to the east
of Egypt £26,000,000
-----------
We have just seen from the researches of M. Arnaud Tison that Shang-Hai
and Canton alone gave to commerce in 1851 an activity represented by the
figure of 400 to 500,000,000 _francs_, which is quadruple that attributed
by Mr. Anderson in 1841, to the entire commerce of the China Seas,
including the Philippine islands, Java and Singapore.
We are therefore quite sure of being below the reality in fixing
the amount of commerce with places to the east of Egypt, in 1851 at
100,000,000, instead of the 26,000,000 in 1841. At the time we write,
this figure of 100,000,000 sterling is perhaps quadrupled and carried to
10,000,000,000 francs, and when the Canal is opened, this latter sum
will be a mere mistake.
In fact not only the greatest part of the commerce of Europe with the
extreme East will be carried on through the Maritime Canal, but moreover
all the activity in operation between America and China, will abandon
the route of Cape Horn for that of the Isthmus, which will be easier,
shorter, and more certain.
For the farther support of our opinion, we have the vast countries which
are at present completely without the sphere of the commercial activity
of the world, and which, upon the opening of the Canal, will furnish a
contingent which cannot be estimated now, but which will be considerable.
Abyssinia, Yemen, Hedjaz, Mascata, and the coasts of Africa, will deliver
quantities of merchandize; such as the coffee of Yemen and Abyssinia,
gum arabic, wax, skins, ivory, wool, indigo, &c. &c. Mules and animals
for the slaughterhouse abound in Abyssinia, and are sold at a low price.
A mule may be had from 25 to 100 _fr._, an ox for 10 _fr._, a sheep for
3 _fr._; timber and cabinet woods abound in the vast forests which have
never felt the axe. Along the coasts of the Red Sea are very rich mines
of sulphur, which have just begun to be worked; lead mines, quarries of
marble and porphyry; extended beaches suitable for the establishment of
salt pits, &c. &c.
New occupations will arise, such as whale and cachalot fishing in the
South Seas; pearl fishing in the Persian Gulf and Indian Sea, as well as
the pursuit of mother-of-pearl, tortoise-shell and coral. A great part of
the Mediterranean fishermen will transport themselves to the Indian Sea,
to pursue their occupation, and increase the activity of the navigation
in the Maritime Canal.
We may therefore be sure that the cutting through of the Isthmus will
increase ten-fold the operations of commerce and navigation; that, as
with every undertaking based upon a true principle, the consequences
cannot be calculated, and that the idea most exaggerated in appearance,
will always be surpassed by the reality.
As, however, we are addressing ourselves to the commercial world, and
have to convince all minds, even the most timid, it is necessary that
we should fix upon a figure, and that this figure should not startle
any one. We have adopted that of 4 milliards (4,000,000,000) of francs,
answering to 6,000,000 tons, which, according to what we have been
showing, is without doubt, already exceeded at present, or certainly will
be, before the close of the undertaking.
We have likewise assumed that of the 6,000,000 tons, 3,000,000 only will
take the route of the Canal.
If we had followed the method of estimating adopted in the railway
schemes, it would be necessary to make a statement of all the merchandize
exchanged between Europe and America on the one part, and Indo-China on
the other; then to multiply the figure thus obtained by a coefficient,
never less than 3, and which sometimes reaches to 10. The result of this
operation would give an enormous product, nevertheless probable. But
to remain within the circle of ordinary ideas, instead of tripling the
actual figures, we have diminished them by half.
The commercial activity obtained according to these
bases, will produce an annual revenue from passage
dues, at 10 _fr._ per ton, of _fr._ 30,000,000
For anchorage dues at Port Timsah, from half the total
number of ships, which we suppose will stop there;
1,500,000 tons, at 1 _fr._ per ton 1,500,000
The canal of communication with the Nile, supposing
it only transports a fourth of the merchandize which
traverses the Mahmoudieh, will show an activity of 15,600
tons of merchandize, which may easily pay 10 _fr._ per
ton, since at present it costs 27 _fr._; 50 _fr._ from
Cairo to Suez, by Canal, and the journey takes three
days. The transport by barge may be done at the rate of
12 _fr._, 50; there will remain an advantage of 5 _fr._
by way of the Canal, and the journey will be two days
less. This item will therefore bring in a revenue of 1,560,000
The cultivation of the lands produces on an average 100
_fr. per feddan_, or 250 _fr. per hectare_, as results
from the labours of seven years, which one of us employed
upon a tract reclaimed from the marshy desert of Lake
Etko.
Supposing the Company brings into cultivation only 60,000
_feddans_ (24,000 _hectares_), it would receive a return
of 6,000,000
The downs which cover the southern part of the Wady and
the north-eastern part of the Isthmus, as well as those
of Lake Timsah, are to be fixed. Let us assume that the
Company will perform the operation extensively, and carry
the figure to 60,000 _feddans_ (24,000 _hectares_). We
have said that the _hectare_ gives at the end of 20
years, a _minimum_ return of 100 _fr._
By making the allowances to ascertain the actual revenue,
it is reduced to 41 _fr._ 50, per _hectare_, which for
24,000 _hectares_, is 996,000
----------
Grand total of annual returns from the Canal 40,056,000
From this amount must first be deducted two and a
half _per cent._ for the charges of maintenance and
administration, and one _per cent._ for redemption, in
all three and a half _per cent._ 1,201,680
----------
Balance _fr._ 38,854,320
The Government’s share fixed at fifteen _per
cent._ 5,828,148
The founding members’ share fixed at ten
_per cent._ 3,885,432
---------
9,713,580
----------
Balance in favour of the shareholders _fr._ 29,140,740
----------
Representing a dividend of about ten _per cent._, over and above the
interest of five _per cent._, taking the capital at 200,000,000 _fr._
We pass over in silence a multitude of sources of revenue, which will
not fail to be pretty considerable; such as the supply of water to the
population of Suez and Port Timsah, the rent of stations for watering
ships, the rent of all the magazines and buildings, which have been
employed in the execution of the Canal, the towing of vessels by the
steamers purchased by the Company for the service of the dredges and the
transport of materials.
There are other branches of revenue that will acquire great importance
hereafter; among others, the fishing in the Canal, the produce of the
works to be established at the fall of each barrage lock, and the sale of
Arab horses.
The current established by the action of the two barrage locks, will
draw into the Canal a multitude of fish, both from the Red Sea and the
Mediterranean.
The falls of the fresh water Canal will be made available to the
agricultural operations of the country, such as grinding corn, husking of
cotton, peeling of flax, laying of thread, &c.
The situation of the Isthmus of Suez, upon the confines of Arabia and
Syria, which supply the best breeds of horses, and whither Europe has
always had to repair to regenerate the equine species, will become a
locality, than which none can be more favourable for the formation and
maintenance at a trifling expense, of an establishment for breeding and
rearing horses. The valley _Wady Tomilat_ will again become what it was
in the times of Scripture, the land of _Goshen_, which name signifies in
Hebrew and Arabic _Pastures_; the land that Joseph prevailed upon Pharaoh
to grant to the Israelites, _because it was the most fertile country in
Egypt_.
We are so convinced that the preceding estimates of revenue will be
rapidly exceeded, that we propose to the Company to have a clause
inserted in the Statutes by which the tariffs shall be lowered as soon
as the dividends shall exceed twenty _per cent._, in order to make the
community of the world participators in the advantages of this grand and
useful undertaking.
With this last observation we will terminate our labours, which are only,
as their title indicates, a preparatory work, intended to fix public
opinion upon the merits of the undertaking, and to lead discussion on to
a limited and well defined ground.
These labours will be followed by a regular scheme, wherein all the
details of execution will be developed, and wherein the most recent
statistical documents, drawn from official sources, will furnish the
basis of all the calculations of revenue.
We have confined ourselves in this preliminary exposition to the
establishment of the approximate _maximum_ presumed expenditure, and we
have sought to guard against any exaggeration in estimating the revenue.
All our calculations are based upon documents, which any one may verify
and appreciate at their worth.
We entertain the hope, that the undertaking will be favourably received,
for there will be profit and honour for those who take the first part in
it; and it will not only offer incontestable advantages, but it will
be moreover the grandest work of progress and of civilization that the
nineteenth century will have produced.