In a very few months we shall know the names of the presidential
candidates, one of whom, in all probability, will be the next chief
executive of the nation. The Republican National Convention has been
called to meet in Chicago June 3, next. The calling of other conventions
will soon follow. In a short time we shall have the candidates, and
then will ensue a contest of which it is safe to predict that it will
be close, exciting, and warmly fought. In contemplating the present
political situation, we see it is little different from that of 1880.
Less change has come in the quadrennium than might have been anticipated.
The same two great parties confront each other, and their apparent
relative strength is much the same as it was when last in the national
arena they measured swords; it can hardly be said that there is greater
likelihood of the success of either than there was four years ago. For
years there has been no little talk about the old parties having done
their work, and the time having come for them to die and new parties to
succeed them; and yet, we enter the presidential campaign of 1884 with
the two old parties in the field as influential as ever. Small progress,
if any, has been made during the past four years in the work of bringing
new parties to strength and prominence. The supersession of the parties
which for so many years have been competitors for the reins of government
is a thing of the future still, and seems a thing not of the near future.
Of the new political organizations which from time to time have arisen,
it is to be said that, generally, their strength is evidently waning
rather than increasing. Some of them, in state elections, have held the
balance of power and been important factors, but there is no probability
that such will be the case in the approaching presidential contest.
The influential parties of the past are the influential parties of the
present. One of them is to win in November next, and both now appear
with about the same chances of success as in 1880.
The fall elections of 1882 gave great confidence to the Democratic party.
Their ticket in New York received 192,000 majority, in Pennsylvania
40,000, and in Massachusetts 14,000. They had some grounds certainly for
the assurance that in the next presidential fight they would wrest from
their opponents the power which had been theirs for more than a score
of years. But the situation has taken on a decidedly changed aspect.
From the state elections of October last, indeed, Democrats might still
derive courage and hope. They carried Ohio, and showed much greater
strength in Iowa than in former years; though, to be sure, causes for
these results of a local and temporary character were not wanting. But
the November elections served to render the prospects more dubious.
In New York the Republicans elected their candidate for Secretary
of State by 17,000 majority; in Pennsylvania their state ticket was
carried by a majority of 16,000; and in Massachusetts Mr. Robinson was
elected Governor over General Butler by a majority of 10,000. Virginia
was carried by the Democrats; but this Democratic victory, it is well
argued by a keen political writer, is to prove a real blessing to the
Republicans by breaking the complications of their party with “Mahoneism”
and repudiation. All things considered, then, neither party can be seen
to have gained since the last presidential election, and to stand a
better chance of success than four years ago. The “Solid South” is still
solid. Not an electoral vote from the states once in rebellion will be
given to the Republican candidates. Among many doubtful things, this at
least is certain. The solid vote of the South is secure in the hands of
the Democrats. In addition to this, they will need, to win, forty-five
electoral votes from the North. If they are successful in securing these,
the next incumbent of the presidential office will be a Democrat. The
result of the approaching contest, since party issues of account are now
notably wanting, must turn very much upon the character of the party
candidates and the personal and official conduct of the representatives
of the two parties at Washington in the intervening time. From what has
been seen in New York, Pennsylvania, and other states, it is evident
that there is a very large and growing body of voters in the land who
will not be fettered to party, whether right or wrong. They claim the
right to turn their backs upon their party when its action becomes
offensive, and take an independent position. These “independents” hold
the balance of power at the present time. They can give New York and
Pennsylvania to either party; they can fix the result of the presidential
election. If good behavior on the part of party leaders and the choice of
unexceptionable candidates will secure their votes, it will certainly be
good policy to make use of the measures.