DEAR MR. PUNCH,--In order to guard against the snares of a too facile
optimism I have made a point ever since the War began of taking all
my information solely from German sources, as I have a feeling somehow
that they may be confidently relied upon not to err upon the side of
underrating their own success. But, having started with this handicap,
I consider that I am the more justified in looking upon the bright
side of things whenever possible. I am writing to you to-day to point
out a very important aspect of the many recent German victories which
seems to have been overlooked. It is full of promise of an early
termination of the War.
I wish to analyse the ingredients of the German Celebration Days,
which have followed each other with such bewildering rapidity of late.
As far as I can gather, the whole nation has turned out to celebrate
the fall of Verdun (in the first week of March), which was the key to
Paris; the advance in the Trentino, which was the key to Rome; and the
destruction of the British Fleet, which was the key to London, along
with the going out of the electric spark of the British nimbus and all
that. Meanwhile certain cities and districts--the thing seems to move
round from one to another--have celebrated in force the various times
that the Mort Homme was captured (while it was still held by the
French), the great diplomatic victory over America, the success of the
last War Loan and countless other triumphs. The thing has been going
on ever since the sinking of the _Tiger_ eighteen months ago.
Now, Sir, there are five main ingredients in these
celebrations--flags, the ringing of bells, the distribution of iron
crosses, fireworks, and school holidays. The efficient organisation of
civilian _morale_ demands them all. Let us look into these.
First, let us take the widest view and look forward to the contest for
supremacy that will follow the War. What is it that we have to fear?
Why, German education. They have often told us so. Yet the very
magnitude of their present successes is robbing their chief weapon of
its edge. It is not too much to say that, should the summer campaign
follow the lines expected of it, bringing victory on every front,
education will come to a standstill owing to the rapid succession of
school holidays. Already parents are complaining that their children
think it hardly worth while to turn up at school until they have had
a look at the paper to see if there is anything much going on, and
patriotic truants are always able to point to the capture of a battery
or the sinking of a ship as justification for taking the day off.
Should the War be prolonged we have to face the fact that we may have
to do with a Germany in which the rising generation can neither read
nor write.
But in a far more immediate sense the great number of German victories
is sapping the very sources of German power. I ask you, first of all,
what are these flags made of? They are made of _cotton_; and more
than that, they are rapidly wearing out. Much flapping in all
weathers--victories have too often been allowed to occur in bad
weather--has torn them to ribbons. The situation is serious: reserves
are exhausted, and an attempt to introduce flag-cards has met with no
support.
Then let us consider fireworks. Is it not clear that the supply cannot
be maintained without a steady munitionment of high explosives, more
especially in the case of rockets?
I need not labour the fact, which is sufficiently ominous, that iron
crosses are made of iron, but I may point out that this expenditure
cannot be made good by drawing upon the belfries, as the necessity for
periodical bell-ringing has immobilized the bells.
These facts should be more widely known. They have given me much
comfort. Even the deplorable loss of the _Warspite_--the vast, latest
hyper-super-Dreadnought of the Fleet and the pillar and the key, as I
learn from my authorities--cannot wholly depress me. For well I know
the dilemma that confronts our enemies, and that neither by victory
nor defeat can they escape their doom.