CHAPTER X. THE YEAR 2440

1.

The leaders of thought in France did not look far forward into the

future or attempt to trace the definite lines on which the human race

might be expected to develop. They contented themselves with principles

and vague generalities, and they had no illusions as to the slowness of

the process of social amelioration; a rational morality, the condition

of improvement, was only in its infancy. A passage in a work of the Abbe

Morellet probably reflects faithfully enough the comfortable though not

extravagant optimism which was current. [Footnote: Reflexions sur les

avantages d'ecrire et d'imprimer sur les matieres de l'administration

(1764); in Melanges, vol. iii. p. 55. Morellet held, like d'Holbach,

that society is only the development and improvement of nature itself

(ib. p. 6).]

Let us hope for the amelioration of man's lot as a consequence of the

progress of the enlightenment (des lumieres) and labours of the

educated (des gens instruits); let us trust that the errors and even the

injustices of our age may not rob us of this consoling hope. The history

of society presents a continuous alternation of light and darkness,

reason and extravagance, humanity and barbarism; but in the succession

of ages we can observe good gradually increasing in ever greater

proportion. What educated man, if he is not a misanthrope or misled by

vain declamations, would really wish he had lived in the barbarous and

poetical time which Homer paints in such fair and terrifying colours?

Who regrets that he was not born at Sparta among those pretended heroes

who made it a virtue to insult nature, practised theft, and gloried in

the murder of a Helot; or at Carthage, the scene of human sacrifices,

or at Rome amid the proscriptions or under the rule of a Nero or a

Caligula? Let as agree that man advances, though slowly, towards light

and happiness.

But though the most influential writers were sober in speculating about

the future, it is significant of their effectiveness in diffusing the

idea of Progress that now for the first time a prophetic Utopia was

constructed. Hitherto, as I have before observed, ideal states

were either projected into the remote past or set in some distant,

vaguely-known region, where fancy could build freely. To project them

into the future was a new thing, and when in 1770 Sebastien Mercier

described what human civilisation would be in A.D. 2440, it was a

telling sign of the power which the idea of Progress was beginning to

exercise.

2.

Mercier has been remembered, or rather forgotten, as an inferior

dramatist. He was a good deal more, and the researches of M. Beclard

into his life and works enable us to appreciate him. If it is an

overstatement to say that his soul reflected in miniature the very

soul of his age, [Footnote: L. Beclard, Sebastien Mercier, sa vie,

son oeuvre, son temps (1903), p. vii.] he was assuredly one of its

characteristic products. He reminds us in some ways of the Abbe de

Saint-Pierre, who was one of his heroes. All his activities were urged

by the dream of a humanity regenerated by reason, all his energy devoted

to bringing about its accomplishment. Saint-Pierre's idea of perpetual

peace inspired an early essay on the scourge of war.

The theories of Rousseau exercised at first an irresistible attraction,

but modern civilisation had too strong a hold on him; he was too

Parisian in temper to acquiesce for long in the doctrine of Arcadianism.

He composed a book on The Savage to illustrate the text that the true

standard of morality is the heart of primitive man, and to prove that

the best thing we could do is to return to the forest; but in the

process of writing it he seems to have come to the conclusion that the

whole doctrine was fallacious. [Footnote: Mercier's early essay: Des

malheurs de la guerre et des avantages de la paix (1766). On the

savage: L'homme sauvage (1767). For the opposite thesis see the Songes

philosophiques (1768). He describes a state of perfect happiness in a

planet where beings live in perpetual contemplation of the infinite.

He appreciates the work of philosophers from Socrates to Leibnitz, and

describes Rousseau as standing before the swelling stream, but cursing

it. It may be suspected that the writings of Leibnitz had much to do

with Mercier's conversion.] The transformation of his opinions was the

work of a few months. He then came forward with the opposite thesis that

all events have been ordered for man's felicity, and he began to work on

an imaginary picture of the state to which man might find his way within

seven hundred years.

L'an 2440 was published anonymously at Amsterdam in 1770. [Footnote: The

author's name first appeared in the 3rd ed., 1799. A German translation,

by C. F. Weisse, was published in London in 1772. The English version,

by Dr. Hooper, appeared in the same year, and a new edition in 1802; the

translator changed the title to Memoirs of the year Two thousand five

hundred.] Its circulation in France was rigorously forbidden, because it

implied a merciless criticism of the administration. It was reprinted in

London and Neuchatel, and translated into English and German.

3.

As the motto of his prophetic vision Mercier takes the saying of

Leibnitz that "the present is pregnant of the future." Thus the phase of

civilisation which he imagines is proposed as the outcome of the natural

and inevitable march of history. The world of A.D. 2440 in which a man

born in the eighteenth century who has slept an enchanted sleep awakes

to find himself, is composed of nations who live in a family concord

rarely interrupted by war. But of the world at large we hear little;

the imagination of Mercier is concentrated on France, and particularly

Paris. He is satisfied with knowing that slavery has been abolished;

that the rivalry of France and England has been replaced by an

indestructible alliance; that the Pope, whose authority is still august,

has renounced his errors and returned to the customs of the primitive

Church; that French plays are performed in China. The changes in Paris

are a sufficient index of the general transformation.

The constitution of France is still monarchical. Its population has

increased by one half; that of the capital remains about the same. Paris

has been rebuilt on a scientific plan; its sanitary arrangements have

been brought to perfection; it is well lit; and every provision has been

made for the public safety. Private hospitality is so large that inns

have disappeared, but luxury at table is considered a revolting crime.

Tea, coffee, and tobacco are no longer imported. [Footnote: In the

first edition of the book commerce was abolished.] There is no system of

credit; everything is paid for in ready money, and this practice has

led to a remarkable simplicity in dress. Marriages are contracted only

through mutual inclination; dowries have been abolished. Education is

governed by the ideas of Rousseau, and is directed, in a narrow spirit,

to the promotion of morality. Italian, German, English, and Spanish

are taught in schools, but the study of the classical languages has

disappeared; Latin does not help a man to virtue. History too is

neglected and discouraged, for it is "the disgrace of humanity, every

page being crowded with crimes and follies." Theatres are government

institutions, and have become the public schools of civic duties and

morality. [Footnote: In 1769 Mercier began to carry out his programme of

composing and adapting plays for instruction and edification. His theory

of the true functions of the theatre he explained in a special treatise,

Du theatre ou Nouvel Essai sur l'art dramatique (1773).]

The literary records of the past had been almost all deliberately

destroyed by fire. It was found expedient to do away with useless

and pernicious books which only obscured truth or contained perpetual

repetitions of the same thing. A small closet in the public library

sufficed to hold the ancient books which were permitted to escape the

conflagration, and the majority of these were English. The writings of

the Abbe de Saint-Pierre were placed next those of Fenelon. "His pen was

weak, but his heart was sublime. Seven ages have given to his great and

beautiful ideas a just maturity. His contemporaries regarded him as a

visionary; his dreams, however, have become realities."

The importance of men of letters as a social force was a favourite theme

of Mercier, and in A.D. 2440 this will be duly recognised. But the State

control which weighed upon them so heavily in 1770 is not to be entirely

abolished. There is no preventive censorship to hinder publication, but

there are censors. There are no fines or imprisonment, but there are

admonitions. And if any one publishes a book defending principles which

are considered dangerous, he is obliged to go about in a black mask.

There is a state religion, Deism. There is probably no one who does

not believe in God. But if any atheist were discovered, he would be put

through a course of experimental physics. If he remained obdurate in his

rejection of a "palpable and salutary truth," the nation would go into

mourning and banish him from its borders.

Every one has to work, but labour no longer resembles slavery. As there

are no monks, nor numerous domestics, nor useless valets, nor work-men

employed on the production of childish luxuries, a few daily hours of

labour are sufficient for the public wants. Censors inquire into men's

capacities, assign tasks to the unemployed, and if man be found fit for

nothing but the consumption of food he is banished from the city.

These are some of the leading features of the ideal future to which

Mercier's imagination reached. He did not put it forward as a final

term. Later ages, he said, will go further, for "where can the

perfectibility of man stop, armed with geometry and the mechanical

arts and chemistry?" But in his scanty prophecies of what science might

effect he showed curiously little resource. The truth is that this

had not much interest for him, and he did not see that scientific

discoveries might transmute social conditions. The world of 2440, its

intolerably docile and virtuous society, reflects two capital weaknesses

in the speculation of the Encyclopaedist period: a failure to allow

for the strength of human passions and interests, and a deficient

appreciation of the meaning of liberty. Much as the reformers acclaimed

and fought for toleration, they did not generally comprehend the value

of the principle. They did not see that in a society organised and

governed by Reason and Justice themselves, the unreserved toleration

of false opinions would be the only palladium of progress; or that

a doctrinaire State, composed of perfectly virtuous and deferential

people, would arrest development and stifle origiality, by its ungenial

if mild tyranny. Mercier's is no exception to the rule that ideal

societies are always repellent; and there are probably few who would

not rather be set down in Athens in the days of the "vile" Aristophanes,

whose works Mercier condemned to the flames, than in his Paris of 2440.

4.

That Bohemian man of letters, Restif de la Bretonne, whose unedifying

novels the Parisians of 2440 would assuredly have rejected from their

libraries, published in 1790 a heroic comedy representing how marriages

would be arranged in "the year 2000," by which epoch he conceived that

all social equalities would have disappeared in a fraternal society

and twenty nations be allied to France under the wise supremacy of "our

well-beloved monarch Louis Francois XXII." It was the Revolution that

converted Restif to the conception of Progress, for hitherto his master

had been Rousseau; but it can hardly be doubted that the motif and title

of his play were suggested by the romance of Mercier. L'an 2440 and L'an

2000 are the first examples of the prophetic fiction which Mr. Edward

Bellamy's Looking Backward was to popularise a hundred years later.

The Count de Volney's Ruins was another popular presentation of the

hopes which the theory of Progress had awakened in France. Although

the work was not published till after the outbreak of the Revolution,

[Footnote: Les Ruines des empires, 1789. An English translation ran to

a second edition (1795).] the plan had been conceived some years before.

Volney was a traveller, deeply interested in oriental and classical

antiquities, and, like Louis Le Roy, he approached the problem of man's

destinies from the point of view of a student of the revolutions of

empires.

The book opens with melancholy reflections amid the ruins of Palmyra.

"Thus perish the works of men, and thus do nations and empires vanish

away... Who can assure us that desolation like this will not one day be

the lot of our own country?" Some traveller like himself will sit by the

banks of the Seine, the Thames, or the Zuyder Zee, amid silent ruins,

and weep for a people inurned and their greatness changed into an empty

name. Has a mysterious Deity pronounced a secret malediction against the

earth?

In this disconsolate mood he is visited by an apparition, who unveils

the causes of men's misfortunes and shows that they are due to

themselves. Man is governed by natural invariable laws, and he has only

to study them to know the springs of his destiny, the causes of his

evils and their remedies. The laws of his nature are self-love, desire

of happiness, and aversion to pain; these are the simple and prolific

principles of everything that happens in the moral world. Man is the

artificer of his own fate. He may lament his weakness and folly; but "he

has perhaps still more reason to be confident in his energies when he

recollects from what point he has set out and to what heights he has

been capable of elevating himself."

The supernatural visitant paints a rather rosy picture of the ancient

Egyptian and Assyrian kingdoms. But it would be a mistake to infer from

their superficial splendour that the inhabitants generally were wise

or happy. The tendency of man to ascribe perfection to past epochs is

merely "the discoloration of his chagrin." The race is not degenerating;

its misfortunes are due to ignorance and the mis-direction of self-love.

Two principal obstacles to improvement have been the difficulty of

transmitting ideas from age to age, and that of communicating them

rapidly from man to man. These have been removed by the invention of

printing. The press is "a memorable gift of celestial genius." In time

all men will come to understand the principles of individual happiness

and public felicity. Then there will be established among the peoples of

the earth an equilibrium of forces; there will be no more wars, disputes

will be decided by arbitration, and "the whole species will become one

great society, a single family governed by the same spirit and by common

laws, enjoying all the felicity of which human nature is capable." The

accomplishment of this will be a slow process, since the same leaven

will have to assimilate an enormous mass of heterogeneous elements, but

its operation will be effectual.

Here the genius interrupts his prophecy and exclaims, turning toward the

west, "The cry of liberty uttered on the farther shores of the Atlantic

has reached to the old continent." A prodigious movement is then visible

to their eyes in a country at the extremity of the Mediterranean;

tyrants are overthrown, legislators elected, a code of laws is drafted

on the principles of equality, liberty, and justice. The liberated

nation is attacked by neighbouring tyrants, but her legislators propose

to the other peoples to hold a general assembly, representing the whole

world, and weigh every religious system in the balance. The proceedings

of this congress follow, and the book breaks off incomplete.

It is not an arresting book; to a reader of the present day it is

positively tedious; but it suited contemporary taste, and, appearing

when France was confident that her Revolution would renovate the earth,

it appealed to the hopes and sentiments of the movement. It made no

contribution to the doctrine of Progress, but it undoubtedly helped to

popularise it.

The Idea of Progress: An Inquiry into Its Origin and Growth · 第 10 / 19 章