Certain ships had only one or a few men saved. The total number of
dead certainly exceeds 10,000 men. There were also many wounded, some
permanently disabled, others only partly crippled. Admitting a total
of 20,000 persons for whom the State must pay pensions, either to them
or to their dependants, and taking an average of 10,000 francs for the
annual pension, we get a sum of 20 millions as a yearly charge, which
at five per cent. represents a capital of 400 million francs. It is
impossible to appreciate the value represented by these 10,000 killed
and 10,000 wounded, all taken from among the most fit of both nations,
nor the ruin brought by their death to their families. But it is not
far from the truth to put 500 millions as the total of the human loss,
which, added to the preceding billion, makes the cost of the few hours
of the Battle of Jutland about sixty million pounds sterling.
So there you have Villiers’ estimate. For the sake of appearances,
Fourgues wished to quibble over every article, but Villiers could
not be shaken because he had made his calculations according to some
technical reviews he got in France and England and he said his figures
were, if anything, below the actual losses. Ships always cost more than
is officially stated and in time of war, coal, shells, and the rest go
up from week to week, and, he said, it was very moderate of him to have
reckoned 5 per cent. instead of 9 per cent. for the pensions.
“But, skipper, it’s not worth while to wrangle over a hundred millions
more or less. Take any sum between one and two billions of francs. Do
you mean to tell me that it made a difference of so much as a quarter
of a second to the duration of the war?”
“But if they could have overwhelmed the Boches and bashed their fleet
to blazes----”
“That would have cost three or four or five billions because the
English would have suffered as well, and what then?”
“Then the English would only have to go back to port and warm their
toes instead of being on tenterhooks all the time, leading a dog’s life
on account of the big German ships.”
“That’s just what I wanted to make you say, skipper. I make every
allowance. I admit that the German fleet would be destroyed. But would
that diminish by one the number of their submarines? Would their mines,
batteries, or torpedoes hinder us any the less from approaching their
coast? Should we have one more merchant vessel on the sea or one less
sunk?”
“Yes, yes; but as long as they have big ships we must have others to
match.”
“I don’t agree with you. It would be sufficient for us to have hundreds
of submarines in order to keep them from getting out and to hunt them
down, as they do us.”
“But then their battleships would sink our cargoes?”
“Where have you seen battleships and battlecruisers becoming commerce
destroyers? They are too easily damaged and they can’t take coal enough
to keep at sea for long. Only light boats or submarines can destroy
commerce.”
“Well, what are you driving at?”
“This: that the big ships are of no use any more except to make us
spend billions in a few hours without any one being the better or the
worse. That seems clear as day to me. Whereas a good submarine costing
two million francs, which would carry six or eight torpedoes, and
would have guns, could sink her eight or ten cargo-ships a month with
a little luck. Even if the submarine is lost, it has done its work,
because twenty or thirty thousand tons of wheat, coal, steel, or rubber
are at the bottom of the sea. That’s what annoys the enemy! It would
make less noise in the newspapers, but it’s the real work of the war.
In this war the victory will fall to the one who can do the most damage
to the other in the shortest time. It’s always like that and I can’t
think why we haven’t seen it this time.”
I should never end if I told you all their discussions on this subject.
There is something in it--the question is worth discussing, and I
wish you would tell me what you think about it. Maybe you, who are on
a Dreadnought, think it thundering cheek of me to write you things
running down your show; but you and I don’t need to be polite to each
other. Honestly, I expect an answer.
NAPLES,
_September 23._