THE GIFT OF PROPHECY

(For the twenty-fifth anniversary of F. M. Dostoevsky's death.)

I

Vladimir Soloviev used to call Dostoevsky 'the prophet,' and even

'the prophet of God.' Immediately after Soloviev, though often in

complete independence of him, very many people looked upon Dostoevsky

as the man to whom the books of human destiny were opened; and this

happened not only after his death, but even while he was yet alive.

Apparently Dostoevsky himself too, if he did not regard himself as a

prophet--he was too eagle-eyed for that--at least thought it right

that all people should see a prophet in him. To this bears witness

the tone of _The Journal of an Author,_ no less than the questions

upon which he generally touches therein. _The Journal of an Author_

began to appear in 1873, that is on Dostoevsky's return from abroad,

and therefore coincides with what his biographers call 'the highest

period of his life.' Dostoevsky was then the happy father of a family,

a man of secure position, a famous writer, the author of a whole

series of novels known to all: _The House of the Dead, The Idiot, The

Possessed._ He has everything which can be required _from_ life, or,

more truly, he has taken everything which can be taken from life. You

remember Tolstoi's deliberations in his _Confession_? 'Finally, I shall

be as famous as Pushkin, Gogol, Goethe and Shakespeare--and what shall

come after?' Indeed, it is difficult to become a more famous writer

than Shakespeare; and even if one succeeded, the inevitable question,

'And what shall come after?' would by no means be removed. Sooner or

later in the activity of a great writer a moment comes when further

perfection seems impossible. How shall a man be greater than himself

in the world of literature? If he would move, then by his own will or

in spite of it he must step on to another plane. And this is plainly

the beginning of prophecy in a writer. In the general view the prophet

is greater than the writer; and even the possession of genius is not

always a guarantee against the general view. Even men so sceptical as

Tolstoi and Dostoevsky, men always ready to doubt everything, more than

once were the victims of prejudices. Prophetic words were expected

of them, and they went out to meet men's desires, Dostoevsky even

more readily than Tolstoi. Moreover both prophesied clumsily: they

promised one thing, and something wholly different happened. So Tolstoi

promised long ago that men would awake to their error soon and would

put away from them fratricidal war, and would begin to live as true

Christians should, fulfilling the Gospel commandment of love. Tolstoi

prophesied and preached; people read him, as, it seems, they read no

other writer: but they have not changed their habits nor their tastes.

For the last ten years Tolstoi has perforce been a witness of a whole

series of horrible and most savage wars. And now there is our present

revolution[1]--armed mobs rioting, the gallows set up, men shot down,

bombs--the revolution which came to replace the bloody war in the Far

East!

And this is in Russia, where Tolstoi was born, lived, taught and

prophesied, where millions of people sincerely hold him to be the

greatest genius of all! Even in his own family Tolstoi could not

effect the change that he desired. One of his sons is an officer

in the army; the other writes in the _Novoïe Vremya,_ as though he

were Souvorin's[2] son, not Tolstoi's.... Where, then, is the gift

of prophecy? Why is it that a man so great as Tolstoi can foresee

nothing, and seems to peer his way through life? 'What will to-morrow

bring forth?' 'To-morrow I'll work miracles,' said the magician to

the Russian prince of old. For reply the prince drew his sword and

struck off the magician's head; and the excited mob, which believed in

the magician-prophet, became calm and departed home. History is ever

striking off the heads of prophetic predictions, and yet the crowd

still runs after the prophets. Of little faith, the crowd looks for

a sign, because it desires a miracle. But can the ability to predict

be accounted as evidence of the power to work miracles? It is possible

to predict an eclipse of the sun or the appearance of a comet, but

this surely means a miracle only to the ignorant. An enlightened mind

is secure in the knowledge that where prediction is possible, there

is no miracle, since the possibility of prediction and of foreseeing

presupposes a strict uniformity. Therefore not he will appear a prophet

who has great spiritual gifts, nor he who desires to dominate the world

and to command the very laws, neither the magician, nor the sorcerer,

nor the artist, but he who, having yielded himself beforehand to the

actual and its laws, has devoted himself to the mechanical labour of

record and calculation. Bismarck could foretell the greatness of Russia

and Germany; and not only Bismarck, but an ordinary German politician,

for whom everything is reduced to _Deutschland, Deutschland über

alles,_ could read the future for many years ahead; yet Dostoevsky and

Tolstoi could foresee nothing. In Dostoevsky the failure is still more

remarkable than in Tolstoi, because he more often attempted prediction:

more than half of his _Journal_ consists in unfulfilled prophecies. So

often did he commit his prophetic genius.

[Footnote 1: This essay was written during the revolution of 1905.]

[Footnote 2: The famous editor of the _Novoïe Vremya._]

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