crime gangs laid an oil pipeline (through Lake Shkoder) to Serbia and
supplied the Serb army with the oil it was deprived of by NATO.
Welcome to the Balkans.
(Article written on June 27, 1999 and published July 5, 1999
in "Central Europe Review" volume 1, issue 2)
Return
Lucky Macedonia or Macedonia's Serendipity
The Good Fortune of Neighbouring a Human Catastrophe
In October 1998, the unreformed communists of the SDSM - the Socialists
- lost the elections in Macedonia by a wide margin to an improbable
coalition. It consisted of the VMRO - fervent nationalists with
Bulgarian roots, headed by the poet-politician Ljubco Georgievski - and
the Democratic alternative (DA). The latter was a hastily assembled
party headed by Vasil Tupurkovski, a pro-US former member of the old
Yugoslav nomenclature. DA enjoyed grassroots support especially by
young professionals, businessmen and liberals. It imported Western
campaigning techniques and made bold promises to revitalize and
energize the economy.
When the news of the unequivocal victory of the VMRO-DA coalition
arrived, the nation was swept by an unprecedented wave of enthusiasm,
optimism and joy. Unprecedented because the young nation's history (its
independence was declared in 1991) provided it with very little reason
to be joyful. Its main trading partners were either boycotted by the
world (the rump Yugoslavia) or themselves boycotted Macedonia - Greece
in the wake of outlandish dispute regarding Macedonia's official name
(hence the impossible FYROM) and Bulgaria because it refused to allow
the use of the Macedonian language in bilateral documents. The economy
collapsed, unemployment soared, investment all but vanished, corruption
erupted and the Albanian ethnic minority became restive.
Macedonia was laid to economic waste by powers beyond its control. Its
entrepreneurial inhabitants - fresh from 500 years of Ottoman training
followed by 50 years of communism - resorted to smuggling (from Greece
to Serbia through the Vardar river) and established a reasonably
functioning underground economy. The IMF and the Central Bank
maintained macro-economic stability (following years of hyperinflation)
at an excruciating social cost. Trade was liberalized, inflation tamed,
the currency was made freely convertible and the exchange rate eerily
sustained (rather, suspended).
But under-currents seethed below the tattered facade. Disenchantment
with the ruling classes and their mafia-like structure increased
dramatically. Intricate webs of village and family loyalties were
tested to the limit in affairs such as TAT, the collapse of a savings
bank in a pyramid scheme in which some top level officials were
implicated. Cronyism and nepotism led to the legalized robbery of the
assets of the state through bogus privatisation schemes. Some people
grew exceedingly rich - others became inordinately poor. The tension
was palpable. The youth felt trapped, facing a dead end future. Many
emigrated.
Albanian nationalism was introduced into this explosive vapour in
1997-8. It existed long before (the KLA, for instance, became a force
to reckoned with as early as 1993). It constituted the main concern of
the ethnic Macedonians (of Slav extract). People spoke ominously of an
Armageddon to be waged between the two ethnicities.
The two communities exist separately. There are no inter-marriages,
very few common business ventures and the Albanians either live in
ghettos within the main cities - or in Albanian dominated cities of
their own (such as Gostivar and Tetovo) in western Macedonia, across
the border from Kosovo. The ground was shaking long before 1997. The
mutual hatred, loathing and, above all, fear of domination and cultural
subjugation were real and under a very thin veneer of civility. The
inclusion of a national Albanian party (there are three) in the
government was greeted as a welcome omen and respite. But this was not
to be.
The ethnic Macedonian's main fear is that the Albanians are aiming to
recreate a "Greater Albania" comprising the current Albania, Kosova and
Western Macedonia. A natural Islamic axis (Albania-Bosnia-Central Asia)
would then form and threaten the Slav peoples wherever they are (Serbs,
Russians, Bulgarians). What started as the normal friction between two
ethnic groups in close physical proximity ended as a mythical
re-enactment of the Islamic (Ottoman) invasion of Europe in the 14th
century. A nightmare revived fraught with the fears of an economically
languishing Christian-Orthodox, Slav, Byzantine civilization. A very
concrete issue of land and autonomy assumed the dimensions of a cosmic
clash between the titans of religion.
Officially, the Albanians constitute 23% of the population in
Macedonia. But Albanian did not take well to what they regarded as
coercion: the population census. They refused to be counted and evaded
the census takers - to their great detriment. As a result, their
numbers are severely understated. It is safe to say that well over ONE
THIRD of the population was of Albanian origin long BEFORE the wave of
refugees swept over this 25,000 square kilometres country. Should one
third of the refugees be absorbed by Macedonia - another 80,000
Albanians - the Albanian population stands to constitute more than 40%
of the population. The Albanians marry younger, have double the number
of children of the ethnic Macedonian (it is a much younger population)
and almost never divorce. Their families are very cohesive and tend to
stick together geographically. In the year 2015 - the majority of the
population in Macedonia will be of Albanian origin, if this trend
continues unperturbed and one third of the refugees remain. In 1912
Kosovo had a sizeable Serb majority. In 1972 this was no longer true.
The ethnic Macedonians are appalled by this demography. They are
scared. They do not believe that they can co-exist with the Albanians.
Stereotypes abound: the Albanians are backward, criminal elements,
illiterate, violent and expansive, say the Macedonians. And their main
goal in life - for which no sacrifice is too great - is to seize land
from their neighbours. Kosova is a first step - the Macedonians are
convinced - Western Macedonia is next, a civil war is imminent.
Marginal efforts at reconciliation aside - the Albanians themselves did
not make any special effort to assuage the fears of the Macedonians.
Quite the contrary. Radical, young and nationalistic leaders abound.
Rufi Osmani, the former Mayor of Gostivar, was jailed for his
activities and pardoned by the President after the new government
threatened a constitutional crisis. He and his associates demanded the
right to use Albanian in official transactions with state and municipal
institutions - which is a reasonable demand. But they also demanded the
right to hoist the Albanian flag and sing the Albanian anthem rather
than the Macedonian one. Then they disobeyed the rulings of the Supreme
Court and instigated violent clashes with the Police (which resulted in
deaths). The establishment of a Tetovo "university" in the Albanian
language did not help matters much. Regarded by Macedonian as a hotbed
of much nationalism but little learning - the Macedonians refused to
accredit it. Riots and counter-riots ensued, culminating in violent
demonstrations of Macedonian students in the streets of Skopje, the
capital.
The average salary in Macedonia is 200 Euro (=180 US dollars) a MONTH.
There are c. 300,000 unemployed in a total working age population of
930,000. There is a constant balance of payments deficit of 8% of GNP.
Macedonia is POOR - real poor, not relatively poor. It is poorer than
any other country in Europe, with the exception of Albania. It is also
insecure. Albanians and Serbs from within and from without threaten its
very existence. It would do wisely to remain on good terms with
Yugoslavia - not only because 50% of its trade is conducted with it -
but also because Yugoslavia is THE big neighbour of the north. Long
after Clinton is gone and perhaps NATO in its current form as well -
Macedonia will have to deal with its perceived betrayal of Serbia.
Serbs never forget and rarely forgive. They visit the sins of the
battle of Kosovo (1389) upon other Moslems - 610 years later, in the
same location. They are a dangerous, tenacious, resilient, ruthless and
unrelenting foe to have. Macedonia is so small and helpless (no army to
speak of) that it is terrified and caught between the NATO rock and the
Serbian hard place. It feels blackmailed, used and exploited without
real regard to its problems now and after the war is over. NATO showed
its real face when it placed Macedonia (with Albania) in the last
category of NATO applicants. Macedonia is a military base to NATO -
here today, gone tomorrow. Who will protect Macedonia from Yugoslavia
when the foreign media circus is engaged elsewhere? This is the age of
the soundbite and the videoclip. It is the generation of expediency.
Macedonia can - and will - easily be forgotten. Hence its refusal to
allow ground warfare from its soil (a position shared by many,
including, for instance, Hungary, a NATO member, with less to lose than
Macedonia).
And this is where Macedonia made a mistake. It did not manage its
public relations properly. It absorbed as many refugees as Albania (10%
of the population - the equivalent of 25 million Mexican refugees in
the USA) and treated its refugees with reasonable decency - under
hellishly impossible circumstances. The USA and the EU reneged on all
their commitments: financial as well as humanitarian. It costs
Macedonia (UNHCR figures) c. 300,000 US dollars a day in direct
expenses to host the human outcome of the NATO blunder. That's
15,000,000 US dollars in direct costs since the war started - or almost
1% of the GDP. Add to this a drop of 50% in exports and 26% in
industrial production and the costs are already at least 10-15% of the
GDP. These are surreal, mind-boggling numbers. It is the equivalent of
the Great Depression in the USA.
Macedonia received hitherto 3 million US dollars (2 from Taiwan and 1
from UNHCR after a LOT of pressure). Oh, I forgot: and a gigantic pile
of promises - to reschedule debts by one year (not to write them off,
which would have constituted real help). The West lies through its
teeth and when exposed it wags a moral finger at this poor, crumbling,
neophyte of a country. It is a disgrace of unprecedented proportions.
Albania behaved more slickly - perhaps because its government is more
veteran and perhaps because it really empathized more heartily with its
suffering kin. They made the right noises and posed to the camera using
the right, complimentary, angles. It won much more help than Macedonia
and is universally accoladed by the West.
This is what Macedonia SHOULD have done. Open its borders in a great
display of camaraderie and human passion. Wine and dine the bored,
frustrated journalists on its turf, pose for the cameras, hair
dishevelled, Tony Blair-like. Instead its leadership went about the
business of absorbing a human wave of unheard of proportions while, at
the same time, trying to defuse tensions from within and from without.
No one informed them that in today's world it matters not what one does
- as what one is SEEN to be doing. This is the vital lesson. Albania
will rebuild its future on the back of the serendipitous refugees of
Kosovo. Macedonia will pay the price of its lack of savvy.
(Article published July 26, 1999 in "Central Europe Review"
volume 1, issue 5)
Return
Black Magic, White Magic
Managing our Future
An address given to the Council of the VMRO-DPMNE, Macedonia's ruling
party, chaired by Minister of Defence and Former Prime Minister of the
Republic of Macedonia, Mr. Nikola Kljusev on July 16, 1999
Germany's economy collapsed following a reparations agreement, which
sapped and consumed less than 10% of its GDP. America's economy
collapsed, its unemployment soared, its stock exchange vanished and it
entered a deflationary cycle, which necessitated the most pervasive
federal intervention in its history - mainly because of multilateral
trade restrictions.
Macedonia has endured trade embargoes, international isolation, wars,
and an influx of refugees - and still survives as an intact,
functioning economy. There is no civil war, no hyperinflation, a stable
currency and no famine. It is nothing less than a miracle. No textbook
economist would have predicted this outcome.
But Macedonia is trying to cope with its predicament in wrong ways. It
is trying to change other countries, or to force or convince them to
change their policies, or to engage in "Voodoo Economics". An economy
cannot be run on the bases of promises, contingencies, gifts, aid and a
Lotaria na Makedonija approach. Economic policy must not be based on
the usual but rather on the normal. In politics, most magic is black
and mostly bad things tend to happen. Macedonia is situated in an
accident-prone area. It cannot and need not pretend (as Slovenia more
successfully and Croatia with less success do) that it is part of
Western Europe. This denial of the painful truth - that we are at the
mercy of forces beyond our control in a region resembling a mental
asylum - is at the root of our economic malaise. What if Montenegro
erupts tomorrow?
Macedonia cannot change other countries, nor can it influence them to
change their policies. It is too small and insignificant and it has no
policy options. Will it really deny NATO next time around if it does
not receive the compensation it requested from it? Will the nature of
its relationship with the EU change if the EU will not honour its
promises and obligations? Macedonia is constrained to a very limited
set of diplomatic and economic choices.
Instead of changing others - we must change ourselves. We must force
Macedonians to change and let ourselves be convinced to change our
policies. We must, in other words, introduce magic - the magic of
trust. Trust in our banks will encourage domestic savings and domestic
investments. It will draw out 1-2 billion dollars from under mattresses
and into deposits. This amount is equal to 5 years of aid or FDI
(foreign direct investment). Trust in our courts will attract foreign
investments. Trust in our government will end the current civil
disobedience. Our citizens are rebellious. They don't pay their taxes,
they do not collaborate with their own government. They don't trust it
to do the good and the right thing.
Macedonia is not perceived by the Europeans to be European. It is too
poor to become a member of the EU, public relations exercises (the
stability and Growth Pact) notwithstanding. It is too needy and donor
weariness is setting in. Money will be harder and harder to come by.
And our products compete head on with European products protected and
promoted by the strongest lobbies in Brussels.
And with these FACTS we have to live. A sound, prosperous economy is
the result of minute, mundane, routine and boring activities - not the
result of rabbits pulled out of a hat. Even if the rabbits are European.
Return
The Friendly Club
Cyprus, that beacon of political stability and financial rectitude, was
invited to negotiate its membership. Bulgaria, the epitome of good
governance and civil society as well as Malta the undisputed friend of
the West (remember Qaddafi?) - were among the list of new candidates
handed down in the Helsinki meet of the most desired economic club on
earth: the EU. To these were added Romania and its collapsing economy.
Macedonia was relegated to the "West Balkan" group - a revolutionary
re-definition of historical affiliations. In this assemblage, it found
itself rubbing shoulders with the disintegrating Albania and the pariah
Yugoslavia. Croatia was ejected from this leper colony by virtue of the
death of its megalomaniac autocrat and his replacement by ex-communists.
Things have been very different only a few months ago, when the EU and
NATO needed the good and naive services of Macedonia. It was a honeyed
courtship. Macedonia was then virtually besieged by a flood of
world-class politicians, all eager to make the acquaintance of the
charming political class of the Balkans. Promises were doled out with
abandon. Blair promised tens of millions. Clinton topped this by
pledging hundreds of millions. And the grateful West offered billions.
In the meantime, Macedonia's infrastructure was pulverized by heavy
armour and light-footed refugees - a quarter of a million of them.
The people of the Balkans are the off spring of broken promises. Their
village shrewdness (which is not to be confused with worldly
sophistication) predisposed them not to trust the kindness of
strangers. Their in-bred paranoia led them to attribute prophetic
foresight, sharp planning and intricate conspiracy to what were mere
stumbling and bumbling on the part of the West and its mighty NATO. The
disillusionment came fast and painlessly. To live in fantasy is often
more rewarding than to have it fulfilled and many Macedonians were
grateful for the intermission in their hundred years of solitude. The
hangover, the bitter aftertaste, the sore muscles of the morning after
- the Macedonians accepted all these with unusual grace.
But as insults were added to injuries, a sense of betrayal evolved.
They felt exploited and discarded, objectified and dehumanised by
super-powers of mythical proportions. They felt abused and deceived.
Used to getting the short end of every stick - this time there was no
stick at all. Having been thus manipulated and largely unable to direct
their anger at the veritable sources of their frustration - they turned
upon themselves in internecine squabbling, disgraced and flouted. This
was further exacerbated by incessant preaching and hectoring of the
representatives of those powers, which thus forsake them. By the very
people who reneged on promises. By countries and politicians whose own
domestic politics and personal conduct were an object and abject lesson
not to be emulated. Countries imbued with corruption preached to the
Macedonians about good governance. Countries which suppressed their
minorities in bloody campaigns reprimanded Macedonia for its treatment
of its own minorities. Countries, which sold weapons to every
despicable dictator in every corner of the earth - prevented Macedonia
from trading with its neighbours.
Of the money promised - very little materialized. The blazing trail of
West European and American movie stars and presidents became a trickle
of East European politicians and Brussels bureaucrats. Membership
became association, association became new association and new
association went nowhere as dates were postponed and dates kept were
used as photo-opportunities by synthetic Western leaders.
If anyone should have been invited to join the EU it is poor Macedonia.
Poor - but not as poor as Romania, for instance. Any comparison of the
two bespeaks volumes about the West's betrayal. Romania's official
inflation is 40% - Macedonia's is around 1% and has been, on average,
less than 3% in the last 3 years. Romania's depleted GDP is collapsing.
Macedonia has survived the Kosovo crisis with its GDP intact and is
poised to grow by 4-6% in the year 2000 according to the IMF. Romania's
average wage is less than 90 dollars a month - Macedonia's is 160 US
dollars. The lei is as unstable as Yugoslavia's denar was prior to the
Kosovo crisis - Macedonia's currency held stable throughout the
external shock-ridden last three years and is trusted by its citizens.
Romania's governments change frequently and with little reason, often
succumbing to the wishes of an ominously violent street. Macedonia's
government has changed once in the last 5 years and that following a
fair and democratic election. Admittedly, Romania's market is much
bigger than Macedonia's and its location closer to the EU. But
Macedonia is an important bridgehead to the Balkans and beyond (Turkey)
and its web of trading agreements and arrangements makes it a virtual
market of more than 110 million people.
But Macedonia is friendless in the EU. It has no patron saint, no
Germany (Croatia, Czech Republic), no France (Romania), no Greece
(Cyprus). It is too small to fear and small enough to ignore
comfortably. It is a peaceful and docile nation. It is co-operative. It
is trustworthy and has proven its devotion to the idea of the West in
times good and bad, mainly the latter. Perhaps these qualities
disqualified it. Perhaps being taken for granted does not grant being
taken. Whatever the explanation, the people of this tiny country grieve
this short romance, so fleeting, so sweet, so dreamy and, as they are
finding now, so surreal.
(Article written on January 15, 2000 and published February 7, 2000
in "Central Europe Review" volume 2, issue 5)
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The Books of the Damned
"I have gone into the outer darkness of scientific and philosophical
transactions and proceedings, ultra-respectable, but covered with the
dust of disregard. I have descended into journalism. I have come back
with the quasi-souls of lost data."
(Charles Hoy Fort in "The Book of the Damned")
"Let me have the three major American networks and three leading
newspapers for a year and I'll bring back public lynchings and racial
war in the US."
(Charles Simic quoting a Belgrade journalist)
"We do not have censorship. What we have is a limitation on what
newspapers can report."
(Louis Nel, Deputy Minister of Information, South Africa)
In the country of ex-Nazi officer Kurt Waldheim and current
Nazi-sympathizer Jorg Haider, the xenophobic and anti-Semitic offering
of local media come as little surprise. Austria, after all, contributed
disproportionately to the Nazi death machine. But what seems to be a
unique Austrian phenomenon is not. The media outlets in Central,
Eastern and Southern Europe are easily interchangeable. In the same
week of Austrian derision and paranoia, "Start", a trash weekly in
Macedonia attacked the British Ambassador and the Americans for
conspiring to dismantle Macedonia with the collaboration of its local,
disloyal and haughty Albanian minority.
The media in the countries in transition is taxonomically not
dissimilar to its brethren in the West. It, too, can be divided to five
categories of ownership and agenda. What sets it apart, though, is its
lack of (even feigned) professionalism, its venality and its tainted
ulterior motives. I wrote about it elsewhere, in "The Rip van Winkle
Institutions":
"And then there is the media - the waste basket of post communist
societies, the cesspool of influence peddling and calumny. Journalists
are easily bought and sold and their price is ever decreasing. They
work in mouthpieces of business interests masquerading as newspapers or
electronic media. They receive their instructions - to lie, to falsify,
to ignore, to emphasize, to suppress, to extort, to inform, to
collaborate with the authorities - from their Editor in Chief. They
trade news for advertising. Some of them are involved in all manner of
criminal activities, others are simply unethical in the extreme. They
all have pacts with Mammon. People do not believe a word these
contortionists of language and torturers of meaning write or say. It is
by comparing these tampered and biased sources that people reach their
own conclusions within their private medium."