pitting it against Rugova and provoking Rugova's camp against a
strengthened KLA - Milosevic could have incited a veritable, full
fledged civil war among the Albanians. The West would have then begged
him to intervene in his by now traditional role of peacemaker. But
history took a different turn. The returning Albanians will not forgive
or forget. Retaliation has many faces, some less bloodied than others.
But retaliation will come. And while Milosevic may have won this battle
- he may, indeed, have lost the war. Only history will tell.
(Article published June 14, 1999 in "The New Presence")
Return
Why did Milosevic Surrender?
Not because of NATO. Ground damage assessment based on the number of
withdrawing troops and their hardware and on a detailed inventory of
charred remains in most of Kosovo - prove that this air campaign was no
different to its predecessors. Only 10% of Serb artillery, tanks, APCs
and so on were affected. The Yugoslav (read: Serb) army - ostensibly
the side that lost the war - is vibrant and defiant. It does not look
like it has been subjected to the equivalent of 12 Hiroshima size
nuclear bombs in 11 weeks. It looks like it knows something that the
rest of us don't.
And it does.
Milosevic did not surrender. He entrapped the West in his usual, wily
style. He lured the west into a fatal hornets' nest, an unmanageable
capsule of centuries-old conflicts, a terrorists' lair, replete with
drug deals, gun smuggling and organized crime. Kosovo constitutes a
major drugs route from the Golden Triangle, via Turkey, Afghanistan and
Iran to Europe. It is an integral part of the path leading - via the
polluted Vardar River - from Greece to Montenegro. It is swarming with
weapons traders, drug dealers, "freedom fighters", Muslim fanatics,
spies, con artists, smugglers and common criminals. Every
self-respecting mob is heavily represented there - from the ruthless
Bulgarian mafia to the murderous Russian one. The civilian population
has long been intimidated into co-operation in all these loathsome
(though lucrative) activities. Many are only too happy to collaborate.
Milosevic withdrew his forces - this is an undeniable fact. He did so
after he lost the backing of Russia. Russia sold him to the West and
disposed of the Old Guard, which supported him in the Kremlin. It was
handsomely rewarded by that long arm of the USA - the IMF. But Russia's
betrayal is not sufficient to account for the Serbian volte-face. The
turnaround in Milosevic's position was too sudden and Russia's support
has always been more moral than military. Something else was at play.
Notice the following hitherto unimaginable developments:
Milosevic surrenders Kosovo to NATO occupation, including all its holy
sites and lucrative mines. There is a conspicuous absence of domestic
reaction by the likes of Seselji, the Serb ultra-nationalist. He quits
the government - a response eerily civilized judging by his previous
record.
The stunning rapprochement between the Macedonian Prime Minister, an
erstwhile nationalist and Albanian-buster, Ljubco Georgievski and the
self-proclaimed KLA Kosovar "Prime Minister" Hashim Thaci. The two
agree to open liaison offices in each others' capital cities and to
collaborate with Albania in the forthcoming reconstruction of the
Balkan region. All this is happening as the Macedonian Minister of the
Interior is accusing both the Serbs and the KLA of conducting
subversive activities on Macedonian soil with the aim of splitting
Macedonia apart. All this happens as NATO begins to clash militarily
with an ever more defiant and cocksure KLA.
The Russians flex their 200-men muscles in an enclave in the Pristina
airport. Yugoslavia looks upon the developing East-West choreography
with a profound lack of interest. The Serb forces are withdrawing
together with tens of thousands of Serb civilians, the new refugees in
this never-ending saga. This, despite the FACT that Milosevic could
have dragged the war on indefinitely without incurring too much damage
either to his military or to his regime. Had he done so, NATO would
have been the first to blink.
Why did Milosevic surrender? Why so suddenly and so surprisingly? Why
did he surrender when the West and NATO were on the verge of breaking
apart (recall the acrimonious public exchanges between Blair, Clinton
and Schroeder just prior to the auspicious Serb capitulation)? This is
very reminiscent of the German surrender in 1918. The forces in the
field felt victorious. The politicians wavered. The result was a sense
of betrayal and backstabbing exploited by the corporal-Fuhrer Hitler.
Sherlock Holmes used to say: "When you eliminate the impossible, what
remains, however improbable, must be the truth." And what remains is a
secret deal. A hidden agenda. A missing protocol. It is a wild
reconstruction of bizarre events. It is improbable. But Milosevic's
surrender was impossible - so it must be the truth or a close
approximation thereof.
I think that the only reasonable explanation to this week's events is
the following:
Milosevic agreed to withdraw from Kosovo and to turn it over to NATO
for a limited period of time.
NATO (not too eager to remain in the province and police it forever)
agreed to disarm the KLA and transform it into a docile police force
cum political party. It agreed, in other words, to do Milosevic's
bidding and dirty work.
The KLA agreed not to pursue its anti-Serb, pro-independence strategy.
Coming from Rugova, such a policy would have been judged treasonable.
The KLA was the only force, which could have delivered the climbdown.
Serbia agreed to recognize the KLA as THE legitimate force in Kosovo
once demilitarised and converted. It actually agreed to support the KLA
against the now discarded Rugova. The KLA needed Serbia, a natural ally
in the absence of others.
The KLA and NATO agreed to let Serbia back into a KLA-dominated Kosovo
later. The exact form of the final political-military arrangement has
not been made clear. But it always was evident that it must - and will
- include Serb sovereignty and military presence in the province.
Kosovo's political future remained undetermined: a province? An
autonomy? In a federation? A confederation with Serbia and a more
independent Montenegro? No one knows, not even the main players. But
the Serbs and the KLA and NATO are in cahoots. There is more to the
"capitulation" than meets the eye.
Macedonia - informed about these backstage accords - hurried to
establish good neighbourly relations with the real winners of the war:
with the KLA. In this it served as both Serbia's AND NATO's long arm. A
perfect venue and communication channel, Macedonia established itself
as the arena of future reconstruction and future political
negotiations. Incidentally, it also secured its own territorial
integrity. A happy KLA in a self-governed Kosovo will have little
incentive to re-engage in subversive activities in Albanian-populated
Western Macedonia.
All the participants in this tragicomedy are now going through the
motions. The Serbs are withdrawing. The KLA is taking over. NATO
half-heartedly tries to disarm the more flagrant KLA units. Serbia is
biding its time. In a few months, it will be asked to re-enter Kosovo
by both NATO and the KLA. A political phase will then begin which will
result in final status negotiations. Macedonia will host, convey
messages between the parties, apply pressure together with Albania and
its own Albanian politicians, make promises, hold secretive meetings,
and diplomatically gesticulate. If all goes well - everyone will emerge
victorious. If not - all the parties are steeling themselves for a
second Kosovo war, much more inevitable than the first one.
(Article published June 21, 1999 in "The New Presence")
Return
The Deadly Antlers
NATO, the EU and the New Kids on the Block
The Irish elk roamed the earth 10,000 years ago. They had the largest
pair of antlers ever grown - 3.6 meters (12 feet) across. Every year
they grew new antlers from nubs prominently displayed on their heads.
They were awesome to behold. They fought ferociously. They seemed
eternal.
Then the weather changed. The earth shed its forests for new Tundra
attire. The Irish elk ignored this creeping revolution. It continued to
grow its antlers and, by doing so, to deplete its own reserves of
calcium and phosphorus. Drained of vital minerals, unable to find
enough food to restore themselves they died out, their magnificent
antlers intact.
NATO has emerged from its Pyrrhic victory in Kosovo shell shocked and
riven by internal strains. The European Union (EU), in the name of
"Euro-Atlantic Structures", hurries to join NATO in the minefield it so
unwisely occupies. Both are in danger of growing antlers too big for
their own survival. There are three pairs of lethal antlers involved:
a. Europe and Uncle Sam
The misnomered Operation Allied Force employed little force (much less
than during the Gulf War) and tore the alliance apart. NATO has split
into a nascent European military structure (the former defunct West
European Union which was officially absorbed by the EU a fortnight ago)
- and an American (rather, an Anglo-Saxon) avuncularly benevolent
umbrella. Europeans have yet to recover from the detached, callous and
off-handed manner of the mismanagement of the whole crisis by the
amateurs in Washington. Their trust in America's insight, foresight and
sagacious hindsight has been shattered by American strategic mistakes,
intelligence errors, diplomatic gaffes and internal squabbling in a
poll-orientated administration. The Europeans emerged with a "never
again" pledge. America is not likely to be invited to Europe's parties
any time soon. Europe is too much of a China shop and America - whether
Republican or Democratic - too much of an elephant. As it were, there
was no love wasted between these two constituents of NATO. Now they are
effectively divorcing or, at least, going through a phase of not so
amicable separation.
To this one should add the conflicting interests of members in this
uncomfortable ménage a 19. Greece (aided and abetted by Iran) is
already fighting proxy wars with Turkey throughout Central Eastern Asia
(the Asian Republics of the former USSR), in Cyprus and in the former
Yugoslavia. France is uneasy with the German-British Third Way and what
it regards as a rapprochement between the two, which threatens its
privileged status in the EU. The poorer countries and the EU regional
aid beneficiaries (not always the same group) are dead set against EU
enlargement to the east. The list is very long.
b. Central Europe
Disgusted by what they regarded as a superfluous and unnecessarily
brutal war - the Central Europeans had the rudest awakening imaginable.
They were forced to participate in a war effort within what they
believed to be a defensive alliance. They joined NATO the introverted
giant - and woke up to NATO the agile, hyperactive and violent
neighbourhood cop. Hungary was forced to risk its ethnic kinfolk in
Serbia's Vojvodina region. The Czechs engaged in bruising internal
verbal fistfights. It was not a seemly sight. The new Central European
entrants joined the likes of Greece and Italy and recoiled from
assisting the war effort in any meaningful way. The shock waves are
likely to reverberate for longer and transform NATO's commitment in
Central Europe. It is not inconceivable to end up with a two-tier NATO:
the fighting goons and the battle-shy, logistics-only allies.
This uneasy co-existence is made even less cosy by the clear reluctance
of the EU to absorb the poor relatives to its east and south. Entry
deadlines are habitually postponed, bureaucratic hurdles gleefully
presented, sadistic reports about the Central Europeans' lack of
progress periodically issued. No wonder the six eternal candidates feel
rejected and abused. This humiliating misbehaviour on the part of the
EU resulted in a turning of the tide. Opinion polls show growing
opposition to the idea of Europe (in the Czech Republic, for instance)
- unthinkable just two years ago. The countries of the Balkan area -
the "New Associates" - constitute ominous competition for funds,
attention and orientation, as far as the current future members are
concerned. The Lucky Six (the Visegrad Trio, Slovenia, Cyprus) are
likely to be relegated to the backburner now that the EU found a new
toy, the Balkans. This will engender great bitterness and enmity
between the EU and Central Europe and between Central Europe and the
Balkanians. Hardly a recipe for orderly transition, for democracy, or
for market economy.
c. The Balkan Sore
The EU is known for its verbal pyrotechnics, its unlimited pool of
enticing vision and its great spinning and marketing techniques. This
arsenal is fully employed now to bedazzle the Balkan natives into happy
submission to the seductive harmonies of the common market. The EU is
dangling a cornucopian promise of eternal economic bliss in front of
the bleeding, limb-torn statal rumps, which comprise the former glory
of Yugoslavia. But the targets of this brainwashing will do well to
look to their Central European neighbours for an antidote. The "New
Association" status offered to the likes of Macedonia, Albania,
Bulgaria and Romania and, later, Montenegro and perhaps, post-Milosevic
Serbia is an ingenious piece of camouflage, a fata morgana, devoid of
content. It is an evocation of hitherto repressed desires and it leads
to self-delusion but it will amount to no serious attempt at
integration by the EU.
The economic disparity between the aspirants and the current members is
numbing. The average GDP per capita in Macedonia is c. 2000 USD per
annum. This is the GDP produced by a Slovenian in 10 weeks, by a Greek
and Portuguese in 8, by a German in 3 weeks. There is no convergence to
talk of - the gap is increasing, not decreasing, especially following
the Kosovo debacle. The legal system in these countries is biased
against the individual, antiquated and totalitarian. Human and civil
rights are foreign implants, inflammatorily rejected by the body
politic. The economy is corrupt, nepotistic and cronyist. Crime
organizations constitute a big part of the trading activities and
maintain a heavy grip upon the political class. The media is mostly
government-owned and manipulated. The Balkan simply is not European. It
is Byzantine, Ottoman, Eastern, and Orthodox. It belongs to Turkey and
the Middle East, not to Frankfurt and Paris. It is closer to Moscow
than to Leningrad. It will never be successfully subsumed by the West.
Turkey has been trying for decades now and has been consistently (and
perfunctorily) rejected by the EU. And Turkey is an important member of
NATO and a country much more developed than the likes of Macedonia or
Albania.
As these unpleasant truths emerge, the bitterness, resentment and
disillusionment will grow and a backlash will develop. It might wear
the guise of internal strife, of isolationist policies, of wounded
retreat, of terrorism - all weapons of the deceived and trampled upon
underdogs. It was wrong of the EU to promise what it can never deliver
and couch it in deceptively ear soothing phrases. It will pay the price
in added instability and ruin.
The Euro-Atlantic structures are evolving, assuming ever more ambitious
and comprehensive goals, and growing ever more impressive antlers. They
roam the whole earth, administering human rights and free marketry.
They impose their will. They are awesome to behold. But from within
they are being depleted and consumed by their very own incoherence. It
is the eternal cycle of prowess and vanquishment. NATO, struggling to
redefine itself and perpetuate its totally superfluous existence. The
EU struggling to secure peaceful markets to its east and south. Europe
struggling to assert itself. The USA struggling to secure its
superiority in an emerging multi-polar, multi-ethnic, fractured world.
All are fighting losing battles, wagging their antlers to and fro.
(Article written on June 22, 1999 and published June 28, 1999
in "Central Europe Review" volume 1, issue 1)
Return
The Treasure Trove of Kosovo
Nothing like a juicy, photogenic human catastrophe to enrich corrupt
politicians and bottom-line-orientated, stock-option-motivated
corporate executives. The Balkan is teeming with both these sad days.
Even as the war was raging, shortages of food and other supplies led to
the dispensation of political favours (in the form of import licences,
for instance) to the chosen few. Bulgarian, Greek and Albanian firms,
owned by ruthless criminals and criminals-turned-politicians benefited
mightily. Millions were made and shared as artificially high prices
were maintained by various means while cronies and crime controlled
firms shared the spoils. This orgiastic intercourse between the corrupt
and the criminal was not confined to one country. The whole region
partook in robbing the most impoverished populations in Europe by
"legal" means.
Their more refined and perfumed Western brethren were never far behind
in taking advantage of American largesse on the one hand and
re-emerging alarmist tendencies, on the other. Thus, American, German,
Greek, French and Italian firms enjoyed funds allocated to
international humanitarian aid by the likes of the US government, the
United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF and other long arms of the
American octopus. Defence contractors and the dubious characters known
as weapons intermediaries stoked the atavistic fires of war in securing
defence contracts. And aid workers resided in six star hotels, driving
the latest sports utility vehicles and brandishing futuristic laptop
computers as they went about the business of dispensing aid. In the
meantime, at least one half of all aid money was pilfered - not to use
a harsher term. Aid rations were freely available in Macedonian,
Albanian, Greek and Bulgarian markets - offered at a discount by aid
workers who stole them from their supposed recipients. The refugees
were never given mattresses, were short of blankets, water, showers and
toilets (I visited the camps - this is an eyewitness account). Only
bread was abundant.
Now that the war is over, some people are counting their dead - while
others are counting their blessings. But this has all been a prelude.
It is the next wave of aid, which is the main course in this
bacchanalia. Outlandishly feverish numbers are tossed around. Kosovo's
immediate reconstruction (housing and infrastructure) will require well
over 2 billion US dollars in the next 2 years. Of this, 1.5 billion
dollars has already been raised. A further 2 billion USD is slated as
direct aid to the shattered economies of Macedonia and Albania. But the
real booty lies in Serbia. A minimum of 10-13 billion dollars will be
required simply to restore Serbia's infrastructure to its former,
inglorious self. To resuscitate the whole languishing area, a
staggering 30 billion dollars is touted as the minimal bill.
Rest assured that at least one third of this generous cornucopia would
end up lining the pockets of the rich and mighty. At least 1 billion
dollars will end up festering in Swiss, Cypriot, South African and
Israeli bank accounts. The politicians know it, the "grupirovki"
(business cartels controlled by mafia-style organizations) know it, and
Western governments know it. This is the REAL stability pact.
Financially inebriated politicians are better motivated to maintain
peace and stability, or so the thinking goes.
The history of the Balkans will play a major role in determining the
topography and geography of this flood of cronyism, nepotism,
criminality and vice. The Balkan is composed of states run by crime
organizations and crime organizations run by states. Old alliances last
long (as opposed to the Middle East where alliances, dune-like, shift
with the winds). Bulgaria and Macedonia, for instance. Serbia and
Greece. Albania and Kosovo. And now Albania and Macedonia. Meetings of
regional "leaders" in the Balkans were always reminiscent of scenes
from "The Godfather". The dons, uncomfortably clad in expensive
business suits and wearing golden rings, deciding life and death and a
jovial yet vaguely menacing atmosphere. Only the leaders of the New
Balkans are much younger, less experienced, more prone to superstition,
extremism and moodiness. The old tensions are bound to re-emerge, this
time in the employ of business interests. Expect a flare up of
animosity between Greece and Macedonia. Despite its Bulgarophile
regime, expect uneasy moments between Bulgaria and Macedonia. And
expect an unholy alliance of business interests between Mr. Thaci and
his sprawling business empire and the governments of Albania and
Macedonia. If not assassinated before, Thaci is definitely the Man to
watch. Young, well educated, ruthless, involved in business (read:
corrupt to the core) - an aptly dangerous man in dangerous times.
The problem is that everyone holds high expectations. This is a poor
recipe for an amicable carving of the cake of international funding.
Macedonia expects to lead the reconstruction effort of Kosovo. It was
offended greatly by the decision to base the Kosovo reconstruction
agency in Pristina. Greek and Italian firms expect to snatch profits
out of the jaws of their near treacherous behaviour during the war.
Turkish firms except to be rewarded for the loyalty of Turkey during
the same. American and German firms expect to exclude all else in
gaining access to American and German (=EU) funds (as they have done in
Bosnia). These all are mutually incompatible expectations and they will
lead to mutually exclusive behaviour. Expect some very ugly scenes,
including spilt doses of this cheap, red liquid, blood.
Albania, already governed by the ungovernable crime gangs it spawned in
the last few years, has formed an alliance with the KLA, never a moral
standard-bearer. This expanded amusement park of drug trafficking,
prostitution, weapons smuggling, contraband and much worse is now
threatening to take over its more virtuous (though by no means
virginal) neighbour, Macedonia. A flare up of hitherto unimaginable
brotherly love has indicated this sacrilegious rapprochement. The
Macedonian Prime Minister - encumbered by a demanding Albanian
coalition partner - has met Thaci and the encounter had all the
trappings of a state visit. Soon after senior Albanian politicians
started talking about a Macedonian recognition of an independent state
of Kosovo and an Albanian language university (the reason for student
riots just two years before).
To a large extent, the Kosovo war was gang warfare. The Serb criminal
organization known as Yugoslavia against the Albanian gang known as the
KLA. It was a war over turf and lucrative businesses. In what used to
be the Third World and more so in the post-communist countries in
transition, criminal activities often accompany "wars of liberation".
In Congo, in Sierra Leone, in Chechnya, in Kashmir - wars are as much
about diamonds, oil and opium poppies as about national aspirations.
Kosovo is no exception but it was here that the West was duped into
intervention. NATO was called upon to arbiter between two crime gangs.
There is no end to the mischievous irony of history.
Perhaps the following incidents are more telling than any learned
analysis:
In late April, the Albanian telecom switched off the roaming facility
of cell phones in Albania. Foreigners - including aid workers - had to
pay the company 1000 dollars for a special roaming-enabled chip.
Rumour has it that the post of the Chief of Police in the Tirana
Airport was "sold" at the beginning of April for an undisclosed amount
(presumably 250,000 US dollars). The reasons: all shippers (including
NATO and aid organizations) have to pay enormous kickbacks to airport
and customs officials to release their goods.
Most Albanian families charged refugee families an average of 500 DM a
month for their accommodation in subhuman conditions. Refugees who
could not pay (or who had no relatives in Germany and Switzerland to
pay for them) were evicted, often cruelly.