of "Africa--Productions," is the statement that "It would be hazardous
to assert that Africa is deficient in _mineral wealth_, though, judging
from our present imperfect knowledge, it does not seem to be extremely
rich." Little did the compilers of this well-known work think that, in
the space of less than twenty-five years, a town of about 150,000
inhabitants would spring up as the centre of a mining country which now
takes rank as the first gold-producer in the world. The gold production
of the Rand to date is indeed stated to equal one-ninth of the coined
gold in circulation throughout the world, while its potential reserves
are probably fourfold this amount. In 1887 the United States occupied
first rank among gold-producing countries, Australia being second, and
Russia third, the total gold production of the world being only
£18,000,000. In 1898, South Africa occupied the premier position with 28
per cent. of the aggregate world's production, and her contribution,
moreover, represented only 3-1/2 millions less than the world's
aggregate in the first-named year. In 1899, owing to the war, it just
managed to fall short of the headship. Since its start, the Rand
gold-fields have produced gold to the handsome aggregate amount of
£81,000,000 sterling. On the fortunes of South Africa, the influence
exerted by this stupendous accretion to its wealth is past question, for
the output of £20,000,000 of gold in 1898 formed 80 per cent. of the
subcontinent's aggregate exports in that year, while 68 per cent. of it
was disbursed in labour, foodstuffs, mining stores, and material in the
course of its winning. It is only needful to glance back at the modest
proportions of South Africa's trade movement before the discovery, first
of diamonds and then of gold, to recognise how much it owes to its
mineral wealth, and more particularly to that of gold, for its
present-day prosperity. Its populations, its cities and ports, its
railway network, its multifarious industries from agriculture upwards,
and its merchant firms and commercial activity have each and all been
stimulated and enlarged enormously by it. As in the case of Australia
and other older gold-producing countries, the output of gold, primarily
from the Witwatersrand fields, has acted like a perennial stream,
fructifying and rendering teemful the arid wastes, and making the very
wilderness to blossom as the rose.
The gold-bearing quartz-pebble conglomerate beds, called by the Boers
"banket"--the discovery of gold in the outcrops of which in 1883 started
the Witwatersrand mining industry--form a series of strata going down at
an angle of about 30 degrees to hitherto unknown depths--over 8000 feet
have already been plumbed--and extending over a tested lateral distance
of more than 50 miles.
[Illustration: CYANIDE WORKS (NEW COMET MINE) AT JOHANNESBURG
The tailings are run into the huge vats, and the cyanide of potassium a
deadly poison percolates through, and carries off the gold in solution.
Photo by Barnett & Co., Johannesburg]
[Illustration: SECTION OF A GOLD MINE. (Photo by Horace W. Nicholls,
Johannesburg)]
These beds lie in series, that particular one which contains most of the
gold being called the Main Reef series, comprising the Main Reef proper
and a number of subordinate reefs or bands. The thickness of the Main
Reef is from 3 to 12 feet, that of the Main Reef Leader 3 feet on the
average, and the South Reef thinner than the latter, but having a richer
gold contents than either. These are the beds chiefly worked, the gold
being disseminated throughout the matrix mainly in crystals, visible
gold being only occasionally seen, but in fairly regular quantities, so
that the results of working, whether in the richer or poorer reefs, are
capable of being accurately forecasted. The knowledge of the nature and
extent of the beds has only gradually been brought together, and is
still incomplete in parts even for the 15 miles section of the Rand
which has been longest under working, and discoveries are of almost
daily occurrence extending the sum of information regarding their
composition and incidence. In the section situated between the
Langlaagte Estate Mine in the west and the New Comet in the east,
one profitable mine after another follows almost without a break. The
eastern and western extensions are, for the main part, still _terra
incognita_; but the several mines scattered along their stretch have
confirmed the identity and value of the formation, which is held by
experts to warrant the belief in the existence of wealth even exceeding
the Rand proper.
Knowledge as to the depth to which the reefs descend has been slowest in
accumulating. When the outcrops were first worked in the central
section, it was believed that there was little or no gold in the lower
levels. Since 1898, however, deep and yet deeper depths have been
explored, especially in following the richer reefs, and always with the
similar result of meeting with the same, or a superior, grade of ore
contents peculiar to the higher sections of the particular reef, so that
the inference is strengthened to certainty that profitable exploitation
is only limited to the ultimate depth at which modern mining can be
carried on. The problem, therefore, is one for the engineers; for, apart
from the increased temperature in the lower levels, which can be met by
roomier shafts, and the occurrence of water, which is likewise capable
of being dealt with, the only difficulty to be met with is that
concerned with the hoisting appliances for such enormous depths. So
recently as May last the London Chamber of Mines, and more recently the
Johannesburg Association of Mining Engineers, were engaged on the
solution of this question. It is needless to anticipate the results of
their deliberations, the point turning upon the choice betwixt two
systems, only so far as to state that means for solving the difficulties
of the task are considered to be available, at least, to such depths as
5565 feet on the slope, and that the results of mining at these great
depths can be made to show a substantial profit. It may be added,
however, that in consequence of the increased cost to reach the ore, the
need for the utmost reduction of working costs becomes paramount.
The circumstances of gold-mining on the Rand have, therefore, features
quite distinct from those of quartz-reef, alluvial, or other kinds of
mining, and approximate to those of coal winning, especially in the
matter of the depth and regularity of the conglomerate formation. Its
peculiarities have created a method of mining, the outcome of costly
experiment, experience, and skill, which will remain a lasting asset to
future ages.
The future gold production of the Rand mining industry is a subject
which enchains the attention alike of the investor and the curious. In
approaching the subject of the unexploited gold contents of the banket
formation, figures are handled which simulate the fabulous, and almost
excuse the disbelief with which all such estimates are received in some
quarters. Confirmation of the approximate correctness of the
computations may, however, be obtained in two ways: firstly, from the
past yield of the gold-fields in the seventeen years since their start;
and secondly, from the verification of former prognostications which
subsequent outputs have furnished. So far as regards the former, the
fact of the production of £81,000,000 of gold since the start of the
industry up to now, under well-known circumstances is, in the first
place, proof positive that the gold exists; and, in the second, affords
inferential grounds for assuming that, given at all similar
circumstances, mining operations will yield like results. This is, of
course, taking the lowest ground, for it is indubitable that the
circumstances will not be alike, but vastly improved, in which case the
value of the results will be proportionately enhanced. As to the
confirmation which results from the verification which later outputs
have furnished, both of the trustworthiness of the bases on which former
forecasts were made and of the prognostications themselves, there may be
instanced the forecasts of such early computators as Mr. Hamilton Smith,
Mr. C. D. Rudd, and others. The former, in 1892, in a report on the
future production of the Rand fields, made by request of Messrs.
Rothschild, adventured an opinion which is worth quoting textually. He
said: "With the active and energetic men who have this industry in hand,
and always supposing that the foregoing theories be correct, in _three
or four years from now_ the producing power of the mines and their
reducing works will, I think, be increased to an output of _five or six
million tons of ore per annum_, worth a gross yield of over £10,000,000.
At this rate the available supply of ore, as conjectured above, will
last for more than thirty years."
As an actual fact, in four years from the time of his writing the above,
the Rand gold yield from 69 companies working amounted to 5,325,355
ozs., the total production being of the gross value of £10,583,616; so
that, far from his estimate being too sanguine or exaggerated, it was a
literal forecast of the actuality. He subsequently expressed the opinion
that the full producing power of the Rand would be reached by the end of
the century, when the output might be expected to exceed £12,500,000 per
annum. As a matter of fact the total value of gold produced in the
Transvaal in 1898 was over £15,000,000, most of which came from the
Rand, and, had mining operations in 1899 not been interrupted by the
war, the output in that year would have reached to over £18,000,000. Mr.
Smith based his estimate on a working depth of 5200 feet, and on an area
of the reef only 11 miles in extent, but since his time deep mining has
been successfully prosecuted to 7000 feet. Inference and analogy,
therefore, both afford strong support to the correctness of estimates,
based on the results of past working, of the future gold contents of the
Witwatersrand reefs, which estimates, as appears, are more likely to be
under-reckoned than otherwise, from the sheer immensity of the subject,
and from the necessarily imperfect knowledge of the potentialities of so
huge a problem.
The divergencies in the several estimates made from time to time in the
past of the total gold available from the Rand banket beds have in part
arisen from the sheer inability of those making the estimates to
anticipate the striking developments which have successively been made.
So far back as 1893, 325 millions, and subsequently 450 millions and 700
millions, have been adventured by various persons. The relative
moderateness of these estimates, compared with more recent ones, is due,
as in the case of that of Mr. Hamilton Smith, to the under-valuation of
the potentialities of deep-level mining, which are only now becoming
fully apparent. One of the more recent estimates--that of Mr.
Bleloch--based on working depths of 3000 to 7000 feet, and taken over an
area of fifty miles, embracing the district between Randfontein and
Holfontein, computes an available gold yield of £2,871,000,000 sterling,
or eight times as much as the estimate of 1893.
Although so enlarged, the total actually understates potentialities by
being exclusive of possible discoveries beyond these limits, and also by
the estimates being framed on the older ratios of gold recovery to ore
tonnage, thus ignoring the application of the latest scientific methods
to the treatment of the poorest ore, which would tend to enhance the
results considerably. Apart from these limitations, this estimate of
2871 millions is made in the most systematic manner, from careful
calculations, area by area, according to the thickness of the reefs, the
tonnage per claim, and the value per ton as they have been shown from
past working. The total tonnage of payable ore available is estimated at
1,378,000,000. The average gold value per ton of ore in the figures
works out at 41s. 7d., but in the actuality this varies from 78s. in the
richest mines down to actual loss in the least paying of low-grade ores.
In these stupendous figures are included the contributions of the great
deep-level mines, the growing proportions of whose contributions to the
aggregate output is already becoming a noteworthy feature, while the
extent of their development cannot be foreseen. Mining engineers are
indeed already considering the specifications of equipments for
negotiating depths deeper than 7000 feet, and even in 1899 the
possibility of mining at 12,000 feet was considered. Certainly the
mining of minerals in other parts of the world has shown the
feasibility of operations at much greater depths than those mentioned.
[Illustration: MINES ON THE LINE OF REEF AT JOHANNESBURG
Photo by Wilson, Aberdeen]
The ascertainment of the proximate gold contents of the Transvaal mining
area leads up to the question, How and when is this stupendous wealth to
be rendered available? In other words, what is likely to be the gold
production in the several years from now on, and how long will this rate
of production continue? or what are the chances of the early exhaustion
of the mining industry? To take the last item first, it is the growing
conviction of Rand mining engineers that the amount of available gold is
only limited by the extent to which mining operations can be prosecuted
below the surface. Mining engineers had up till recently generally
agreed to fix a depth of 8000 feet as the utmost limit to which
mechanical appliances and other circumstances will allow them to follow
the descent of the reefs, and the available gold yield is calculated on
this basis. But there is no finality in this statement of depth, and
already, as we have remarked, engineers are calculating for deeper
delvings, and 9000 and even 12,000 feet have been spoken of. This latter
increase of 4000 feet--from 8000 to 12,000 feet--would alone augment the
gold estimate by 50 per cent. For the rest, and retaining the 8000 feet
limit estimate as the measure of the exhaustion of the present Rand,
this is naturally controlled by the rate of production per year, which
itself is dependent on the particular circumstances of the industry
during the period in question.
The yearly production of gold from now onwards offers no insurmountable
obstacle to a fairly exact appreciation. It is merely a rule of three
calculation: if in the past, under given circumstances, working results
have been as follows; in the future, with the same or like
circumstances, the results will be such. Various computations from time
to time have been made on these bases, among the most recent being those
of Mr. Cooper-Key and Dr. Hatch in 1899, Mr. Goldring and Mr. Bleloch in
1901, and quite recently Messrs. Leggett and Hatch (on 47 miles of the
Rand only, and working to depths of 4000 to 7000 feet). Mr. Cooper-Key's
forecast, which was made in 1899, was for the output of the three
following years, the war not having then been anticipated. The basis of
his calculation, like that of Mr. Goldring's, was the number of stamps
or the milling power employed. If in 1898, he argued, there were in work
on the Central, Eastern, Far Eastern, and Western sections of the Rand
6000 stamps, at the end of 1899 this number would probably be increased
by 165, or to a total of 6165; at the end of 1900 the increase made
would be 1730 and the total 7895; at the end of 1901 the total would
have risen to 9845; and at the end of 1902 to 11,785. On the basis of
1800 tons milled per stamp, of an average value of £2 per ton, and with
an average number of stamps of 7000, 9000, and 10,500 in the three
years, the output would have been: 1900, £25,200,000; 1901, £32,400,000;
and 1902, £37,800,000. Mr. Goldring, who is the Secretary of the
Johannesburg Chamber of Mines, likewise framing his calculation on
certain yearly increases in the milling power, calculated that in the
five years following the full resumption of mining operations, 17,000
stamps would be at work, or an increase of 11,000 on the number before
the war. Allowing for a fall in the grade of ore milled, in consequence
of cheaper methods permitting of a lower grade of ore to be dealt with,
the 17,000 stamps, he considered, would produce at least £50,000,000
sterling a year. Writing before the war, and basing his estimate on
observations made by Mr. Eckstein that in five years the number of
stamps in working would be 12,000, Dr. Hatch, likewise following the
milling power basis, calculated for a yearly gold production of
£36,000,000. Mr. Bleloch's opinion, taking the production in the nine
working months of 1899 of £20,000,000 as a basis, is that the rate of
production would probably double itself after the war. "If this be so,"
he adds, "in fifty years' time the product of the Rand will have reached
over £2,000,000,000, and if such an accelerated progress is made, the
whole of the vast amount now estimated may be dug out of the Rand within
sixty or seventy years." The latest estimate published, that of Messrs.
Leggett and Hatch, going on the basis of the average increase of
production of £4,000,000 per year in the three years before the war, and
that the production in 1899--a broken year owing to the war--was
£19,000,000, concludes that, allowing eighteen months from January 1,
1902, for the industry to be restored to the conditions existing in
August 1899, a similar increase of production will bring the output to
at least £30,000,000 per annum by June 30, 1906, and if this rate of
production were to be maintained from then on, the total production of
£1,233,560,700 would give a life from January 1, 1902, of forty-two
years and a half. But as the production will decline gradually, instead
of coming to a sudden stop, the life of the industry is likely to be
prolonged for some considerable number of years beyond the period
indicated. If, on the other hand, the annual output should exceed
£30,000,000 for any considerable period, as is, perhaps, within the
bounds of possibility, this would partially offset the extension of life
due to the gradual decline of production. It is to be added, in
explanation of Messrs. Leggett and Hatch's estimate, that it
contemplates working along a strike of forty-seven miles only, and to
the restricted depth of from 4000 to 6000 feet.
The following tabulated comparison of these several estimates will
assist their comprehension, it being explained that Mr. Bleloch's
estimate is reduced to the extent of 25 per cent. as a set-off for
probably barren sections, &c.:--
+-----+--------------+----------+------------+---------------+-----------+
| | | | | Messrs. | |
|Year.|Mr. Cooper-Key|Dr. Hatch |Mr. Goldring|Leggett & Hatch|Mr. Bleloch|
| | (1899). | (1899). | (1901). | (1902). | (1901). |
+-----+--------------+----------+------------+---------------+-----------+
| | £ | £ | £ | £ | £ |
|1898 | ... | ... | 20,000,000 | ... | ... |
|1899 | ... | ... | ... | 19,000,000 | 20,000,000|
|1900 | 25,200,000 | ... | ... | ... | ... |
|1901 | 32,400,000 | ... | ... | ... | ... |
|1902 | 37,800,000 | ... | ... | ... | 15,000,000|
|1903 | ... | ... |} |} | 20,000,000|
|1904 | ... |36,000,000|}50,000,000 |} | 25,000,000|
|1905 | ... | ... |} each year |} |} |
|1906 | ... | ... |} |} |} |
|1907 | ... | ... |} |} |} |
|1908 | ... | ... | ... |} |} |
|1909 | ... | ... | ... |} |}35,000,000|
|1910 | ... | ... | ... |} 30,000,000 |} each year|
|1911 | ... | ... | ... |} each year |} |
|1912 | ... | ... | ... |} |} |
|1913 | ... | ... | ... |} |} |
|1914 | ... | ... | ... |} |} |
|1915 | ... | ... | ... |} |}40,000,000|
|1924 | ... | ... | ... |} |} each year|
|1925 | ... | ... | ... |} |}45,000,000|
|1934 | ... | ... | ... |} |} each year|
|1935 | ... | ... | ... | ... |}40,000,000|
|1944 | ... | ... | ... | ... |} each year|
|1945 | ... | ... | ... | ... |}30,000,000|
|1954 | ... | ... | ... | ... |} each year|
|1955 | ... | ... | ... | ... |}30,000,000|
|1964 | ... | ... | ... | ... |} each year|
|1965 | ... | ... | ... | ... |}15,000,000|
|1974 | ... | ... | ... | ... |} each year|
+-----+--------------+----------+------------+---------------+-----------+
These several estimates are of course to be looked upon merely as
approximations, and they are, moreover, not framed on exactly the same
bases. They, however, agree in the main that the 1899 output of roundly
£20,000,000 will be increased to some point between £30,000,000 and
£50,000,000 within a few years' time, and maintained thereat, more or
less continuously, for periods varying over 45 and 65 years. The
production of the several estimates for the whole period gives an
average of £37,000,000, which is only slightly higher than that of Mr.
Bleloch, which is £35,714,285. This, consequently, is the handsome
yearly output which the Rand mining industry offers in the near
future--an amount which alone equals the total production of the whole
world in 1897--if the circumstances are at least equal to those which
previously prevailed.
[Illustration: HEAD-GEAR OF THE WITWATERSRAND GOLD-MINING CO.
(Photo by Horace W. Nicholls, Johannesburg)]
Having advanced the question of the future of the mining industry to the
extent of showing a possible gold yield of at least 2,871 millions,
spread over a period of seventy years at the rate of between 37 and 40
millions a year, at a moderate estimate, it is pertinent to inquire
somewhat into the efficacy of the means for securing this return, the
location of anything and its appropriation being two distinct matters.
As implied previously, the realisation of this huge prospective gold
yield depends upon the circumstances of the industry being at least
equal to those of the past. If found to be superior, the ultimate
realisation will only be made the more certain. These circumstances may
be conveniently classified as external and internal. So far back as
the Industrial Commission of 1897 it was recognised that the essentials
for the development of the Rand were reduction of taxes and economy in
working. The evidence of all the prominent heads of mining groups, both
English and foreign, then tendered, in the sum amounted to this. Where
the circumstances of a mine are such that they can only be worked at a
higher cost than their returns, or with only an infinitesimal profit,
either costs must be reduced or the mine compelled to close down. In
many cases a reduction of working costs of so moderate an amount as 2s.
per ton means the life of a mine, and less than this spells bankruptcy.
Where mines had exhausted every effort to reduce working costs, it was
also contended with justice that they had established a claim for moral
and material assistance on the part of the Government, where it could be
properly accorded; indeed, a personal interest, so to say, attached to
Government interference, in that the national revenues were jeopardised
when mines failed of successful working. The assistances asked for by
the mining industry, and which the Government were able to accord, are
now notorious, but are worth reciting for the bearing they have on our
present subject. They were fiscal reforms conducing to cheapening of
labour by reducing the cost of living both for whites and natives;
increase in the effectiveness of native labour by the proper enforcement
of the Liquor Law, the cancellation of the local spirit monopoly, and
the withdrawal of the right of free imports of spirits from Mozambique
and the Orange Free State; abolition of monopolies which tended to
enhance the cost of materials used in the mines, including those of
dynamite, cement, &c.; reduction of rail rates, and abrogation, by
arrangement, of the transit dues levied by the coast Colonies, thus
lessening first and working costs of mining equipments and materials;
promotion of large public works directly or indirectly affecting the
mines, such as provision of adequate water supplies, construction of
railways, &c.; finally, an equitable and sympathetic attitude of the
Governing Power to all and every question having relation to the
country's staple industry. So far as these reforms were appraisable,
they were reckoned to be equivalent to a saving of not less than 6s. per
ton in working costs. What practical chance there was of gaining the
relief sought under the old _régime_ is shown by the futile results of
the Industrial Commission's labours.
[Illustration: DRIVING AN "END" IN MAY CONSOLIDATED MINE, JOHANNESBURG
In some places the holes for blasting are bored by Kaffirs, but as a
rule the drives are made with the use of boring machines driven by
compressed air. There are few accidents underground, as the rock is so
hard that there is little fear of the "levels" falling in. The chief
danger is from the gas after blasting ...]
But the altered circumstances of the mining industry since the war are
evidenced by the reforms already consummated and under weigh, comprising
among them some of the leading demands of 1897. This fact is conclusive
that, so far as external circumstances are concerned, the mining
industry is not only in the enjoyment of equally favourable
circumstances with those existing previously, but even greatly
superior. By so much, therefore, is the perspective of the gold yield to
which we have made allusion assisted towards becoming a reality.
[Illustration: KAFFIR COMPOUND, NEW PRIMROSE GOLD MINE, JOHANNESBURG]