VI: POSSIBILITIES AND IMPOSSIBILITIES

[1891]

In the course of a discussion which has been going on during the last

two years,[46] it has been maintained by the defenders of

ecclesiastical Christianity that the demonology of the books of the

New Testament is an essential and integral part of the revelation of

the nature of the spiritual world promulgated by Jesus of Nazareth.

Indeed, if the historical accuracy of the Gospels and of the Acts of

the Apostles is to be taken for granted, if the teachings of the

Epistles are divinely inspired, and if the universal belief and

practice of the primitive Church are the models which all later times

must follow, there can be no doubt that those who accept the

demonology are in the right. It is as plain as language can make it,

that the writers of the Gospels believed in the existence of Satan and

the subordinate ministers of evil as strongly as they believed in

that of God and the angels, and that they had an unhesitating faith in

possession and in exorcism. No reader of the first three Gospels can

hesitate to admit that, in the opinion of those persons among whom the

traditions out of which they are compiled arose, Jesus held, and

constantly acted upon, the same theory of the spiritual world. Nowhere

do we find the slightest hint that he doubted the theory, or

questioned the efficacy of the curative operations based upon it.

Thus, when such a story as that about the Gadarene swine is placed

before us, the importance of the decision, whether it is to be

accepted or rejected, cannot be over-estimated. If the demonological

part of it is to be accepted, the authority of Jesus is unmistakably

pledged to the demonological system current in Judæa in the first

century. The belief in devils who possess men and can be transferred

from men to pigs, becomes as much a part of Christian dogma as any

article of the creeds. If it is to be rejected, there are two

alternative conclusions. Supposing the Gospels to be historically

accurate, it follows that Jesus shared in the errors, respecting the

nature of the spiritual world, prevalent in the age in which he lived

and among the people of his nation. If, on the other hand, the Gospel

traditions gives us only a popular version of the sayings and doings

of Jesus, falsely coloured and distorted by the superstitious

imaginings of the minds through which it had passed, what guarantee

have we that a similar unconscious falsification, in accordance with

preconceived ideas, may not have taken place in respect of other

reported sayings and doings? What is to prevent a conscientious

inquirer from finding himself at last in a purely agnostic position

with respect to the teachings of Jesus, and consequently with respect

to the fundamentals of Christianity?

In dealing with the question whether the Gadarene story was to be

believed or not, I confined myself altogether to a discussion of the

value of the evidence in its favour. And, as it was easy to prove that

this consists of nothing more than three partially discrepant, but

often verbally coincident, versions of an original, of the authorship

of which nobody knows anything, it appeared to me that it was wholly

worthless. Even if the event described had been probable, such

evidence would have required corroboration; being grossly improbable,

and involving acts questionable in their moral and legal aspect, the

three accounts sank to the level of mere tales.

Thus far, I am unable, even after the most careful revision, to find

any flaw in my argument; and I incline to think none has been found by

my critics--at least, if they have, they have kept the discovery to

themselves.

In another part of my treatment of the case I have been less

fortunate. I was careful to say that, for anything I could "absolutely

prove to the contrary," there might be in the universe demonic beings

who could enter into and possess men, and even be transferred from

them to pigs; and that I, for my part, could not venture to declare _à

priori_ that the existence of such entities was "impossible." I was,

however, no less careful to remark that I thought the evidence

hitherto adduced in favour of the existence of such beings

"ridiculously insufficient" to warrant the belief in them.

To my surprise, this statement of what, after the closest reflection,

I still conceive to be the right conclusion, has been hailed as a

satisfactory admission by opponents, and lamented as a perilous

concession by sympathisers. Indeed, the tone of the comments of some

candid friends has been such that I began to suspect that I must be

entering upon a process of retrogressive metamorphosis which might

eventually give me a place among the respectabilities. The prospect,

perhaps, ought to have pleased me; but I confess I felt something of

the uneasiness of the tailor who said that, whenever a customer's

circumference was either much less, or much more, than at the last

measurement, he at once sent in his bill; and I was not consoled until

I recollected that, thirteen years ago, in discussing Hume's essay on

"Miracles," I had quoted, with entire assent, the following passage

from his writings: "Whatever is intelligible and can be distinctly

conceived implies no contradiction, and can never be proved false by

any demonstrative argument or abstract reasoning _à priori_."[47]

Now, it is certain that the existence of demons can be distinctly

conceived. In fact, from the earliest times of which we have any record

to the present day, the great majority of mankind have had extremely

distinct conceptions of them, and their practical life has been more or

less shaped by those conceptions. Further, the notion of the existence

of such beings "implies no contradiction." No doubt, in our experience,

intelligence and volition are always found in connection with a certain

material organisation, and never disconnected with it; while, by the

hypothesis, demons have no such material substratum. But then, as

everybody knows, the exact relation between mental and physical

phenomena, even in ourselves, is the subject of endless dispute. We may

all have our opinions as to whether mental phenomena have a substratum

distinct from that which is assumed to underlie material phenomena, or

not; though if any one thinks he has demonstrative evidence of either

the existence or the non-existence of a "soul," all I can say is, his

notion of demonstration differs from mine. But, if it be impossible to

demonstrate the non-existence of a "substance" of mental phenomena--that

is, of a soul--independent of material "substance"; if the idea of such

a "soul" is "intelligible and can be distinctly conceived," then it

follows that it is not justifiable to talk of demons as

"impossibilities." The idea of their existence implies no more

"contradiction" than does the idea of the existence of pathogenic

microbes in the air. Indeed, the microbes constitute a tolerably exact

physical analogue of the "powers of the air" of ancient belief.

Strictly speaking, I am unaware of any thing that has a right to the

title of an "impossibility" except a contradiction in terms. There are

impossibilities logical, but none natural. A "round square," a

"present past," "two parallel lines that intersect," are

impossibilities, because the ideas denoted by the predicates, _round,

present, intersect_, are contradictory of the ideas denoted by the

subjects, _square, past, parallel_. But walking on water, or turning

water into wine, or procreation without male intervention, or raising

the dead, are plainly not "impossibilities" in this sense.

In the affirmation, that a man walked upon water, the idea of the

subject is not contradictory of that in the predicate. Naturalists are

familiar with insects which walk on water, and imagination has no more

difficulty in putting a man in place of the insect than it has in

giving a man some of the attributes of a bird and making an angel of

him; or in ascribing to him the ascensive tendencies of a balloon, as

the "levitationists" do. Undoubtedly, there are very strong physical

and biological arguments for thinking it extremely improbable that a

man could be supported on the surface of the water as the insect is;

or that his organisation could be compatible with the possession and

use of wings; or that he could rise through the air without mechanical

aid. Indeed, if we have any reason to believe that our present

knowledge of the nature of things exhausts the possibilities of

nature, we might properly say that the attributes of men are

contradictory of walking on water, or floating in the air, and

consequently that these acts are truly "impossible" for him. But it is

sufficiently obvious, not only that we are at the beginning of our

knowledge of nature, instead of having arrived at the end of it, but

that the limitations of our faculties are such that we never can be in

a position to set bounds to the possibilities of nature. We have

knowledge of what is happening and of what has happened; of what will

happen we have and can have no more than expectation, grounded on our

more or less correct reading of past experience and prompted by the

faith, begotten of that experience, that the order of nature in the

future will resemble its order in the past.

The same considerations apply to the other examples of supposed

miraculous events. The change of water into wine undoubtedly implies a

contradiction, and is assuredly "impossible," if we are permitted to

assume that the "elementary bodies" of the chemists are, now and for

ever, immutable. Not only, however, is a negative proposition of this

kind incapable of proof, but modern chemistry is inclining towards the

contrary doctrine. And if carbon can be got out of hydrogen or oxygen,

the conversion of water into wine comes within range of scientific

possibility--it becomes a mere question of molecular arrangement.

As for virgin procreation, it is not only clearly imaginable, but

modern biology recognises it as an everyday occurrence among some

groups of animals. So with restoration to life after death. Certain

animals, long as dry as mummies, and, to all appearance, as dead, when

placed in proper conditions resume their vitality. It may be said that

these creatures are not dead, but merely in a condition of suspended

vitality. That, however, is only begging the question by making the

incapacity for restoration to life part of the definition of death. In

the absence of obvious lesions of some of the more important organs,

it is no easy matter, even for experts, to say that an apparently dead

man is incapable of restoration to life; and, in the recorded

instances of such restoration, the want of any conclusive evidence

that the man was dead is even more remarkable than the insufficiency

of the testimony as to his coming to life again.

It may be urged, however, that there is, at any rate, one miracle

certified by all three of the Synoptic Gospels which really does

"imply a contradiction," and is, therefore, "impossible" in the

strictest sense of the word. This is the well-known story of the

feeding of several thousand men, to the complete satisfaction of their

hunger, by the distribution of a few loaves and fishes among them; the

wondrousness of this already somewhat surprising performance being

intensified by the assertion that the quantity of the fragments of the

meal, left over, amounted to much more than the original store.

Undoubtedly, if the operation is stated in its most general form; if

it is to be supposed that a certain quantity, or magnitude, was

divided into many more parts than the whole contained; and that, after

the subtraction of several thousands of such parts, the magnitude of

the remainder amounted to more than the original magnitude, there does

seem to be an _à priori_ difficulty about accepting the proposition,

seeing that it appears to be contradictory of the senses which we

attach to the words "whole" and "parts" respectively. But this

difficulty is removed if we reflect that we are not, in this case,

dealing with magnitude in the abstract, or with "whole" and "parts" in

their mathematical sense, but with concrete things, many of which are

known to possess the power of growing, or increasing in magnitude.

They thus furnish us with a conception of growth which we may, in

imagination, apply to loaves and fishes; just as we may, in

imagination, apply the idea of wings to the idea of a man. It must be

admitted that a number of sheep might be fed on a pasture, and yet

there might be more grass on the pasture, when the sheep left it, than

there was at first. We may generalise this and other such facts into a

perfectly definite conception of the increase of food in excess of

consumption; which thus becomes a possibility, the limitations of

which are to be discovered only by experience. Therefore, if it is

asserted that cooked food has been made to grow in excess of rapid

consumption, that statement cannot logically be rejected as an _à

priori_ impossibility, however improbable experience of the

capabilities of cooked food may justify us in holding it to be.

On the strength of this undeniable improbability, however, we not only

have a right to demand, but are morally bound to require, strong

evidence in its favour before we even take it into serious

consideration. But what is the evidence in this case? It is merely

that of those three books,[48] which also concur in testifying to the

truth of the monstrous legend of the herd of swine. In these three

books, there are five accounts of a "miraculous feeding," which fall

into two groups. Three of the stories, obviously derived from some

common source, state that five loaves and two fishes sufficed to feed

five thousand persons, and that twelve baskets of fragments remained

over. In the two others, also obviously derived from a common source,

distinct from the preceding, seven loaves and a few small fishes are

distributed to four thousand persons, and seven baskets of fragments

are left.

If we were dealing with secular records, I suppose no candid and

competent student of history would entertain much doubt that the

originals of the three stories and of the two are themselves merely

divergent versions of some primitive story which existed before the

three Synoptic gospels were compiled out of the body of traditions

current about Jesus. This view of the case, however, is incompatible

with a belief in the historical accuracy of the first and second

gospels.[49] For these agree in making Jesus himself speak of both the

"four thousand" and the "five thousand" miracle. "When I brake the

five loaves among the five thousand, how many baskets full of broken

pieces took ye up? They say unto him, twelve. And when the seven among

the four thousand, how many baskets full of broken pieces took ye up?

And they say unto him, seven."

Thus we are face to face with a dilemma the way of escape from which

is not obvious. Either the "four thousand" and the "five thousand"

stories are both historically true, and describe two separate events;

or the first and second gospels testify to the very words of a

conversation between Jesus and his disciples which cannot have been

uttered.

My choice between these alternatives is determined by no _à priori_

speculations about the possibility or impossibility of such events as

the feeding of the four or of the five thousand. But I ask myself the

question, What evidence ought to be produced before I could feel

justified in saying that I believed such an event to have occurred?

That question is very easily answered. Proof must be given (1) of the

weight of the loaves and fishes at starting; (2) of the distribution

to 4-5,000 persons, without any additional supply, of this quantity

and quality of food; (3) of the satisfaction of these people's

appetites; (4) of the weight and quality of the fragments gathered up

into the baskets. Whatever my present notions of probability and

improbability may be, satisfactory testimony under these four heads

would lead me to believe that they were erroneous; and I should accept

the so-called miracle as a new and unexpected example of the

possibilities of nature.

But when, instead of such evidence, nothing is produced but two sets

of discrepant stories, originating nobody knows how or when, among

persons who could believe as firmly in devils which enter pigs, I

confess that my feeling is one of astonishment that any one should

expect a reasonable man to take such testimony seriously.

I am anxious to bring about a clear understanding of the difference

between "impossibilities" and "improbabilities," because mistakes on

this point lay us open to the attacks of ecclesiastical apologists of

the type of the late Cardinal Newman; acute sophists, who think it

fitting to employ their intellects, as burglars employ dark lanterns

for the discovery of other people's weak places, while they carefully

keep the light away from their own position.

When it is rightly stated, the Agnostic view of "miracles" is, in my

judgment, unassailable. We are _not_ justifiable in the _à priori_

assertion that the order of nature, as experience has revealed it to

us, cannot change. In arguing about the miraculous, the assumption is

illegitimate, because it involves the whole point in dispute.

Furthermore, it is an assumption which takes us beyond the range of

our faculties. Obviously, no amount of past experience can warrant us

in anything more than a correspondingly strong expectation for the

present and future. We find, practically, that expectations, based

upon careful observations of events, are, as a rule, trustworthy. We

should be foolish indeed not to follow the only guide we have through

life. But, for all that, our highest and surest generalisations remain

on the level of justifiable expectations; that is, very high

probabilities. For my part, I am unable to conceive of an intelligence

shaped on the model of that of man, however superior it might be,

which could be any better off than our own in this respect; that is,

which could possess logically justifiable grounds for certainty about

the constancy of the order of things, and therefore be in a position

to declare that such and such events are impossible. Some of the old

mythologies recognised this clearly enough. Beyond and above Zeus and

Odin, there lay the unknown and inscrutable Fate which, one day or

other, would crumple up them and the world they ruled to give place to

a new order of things.

I sincerely hope that I shall not be accused of Pyrrhonism, or of any

desire to weaken the foundations of rational certainty. I have merely

desired to point out that rational certainty is one thing, and talk

about "impossibilities," or "violation of natural laws," another.

Rational certainty rests upon two grounds--the one that the evidence

in favour of a given statement is as good as it can be; the other that

such evidence is plainly insufficient. In the former case, the

statement is to be taken as true, in the latter as untrue; until

something arises to modify the verdict, which, however properly

reached, may always be more or less wrong, the best information being

never complete, and the best reasoning being liable to fallacy.

To quarrel with the uncertainty that besets us in intellectual

affairs, would be about as reasonable as to object to live one's life,

with due thought for the morrow, because no man can be sure he will be

alive an hour hence. Such are the conditions imposed upon us by

nature, and we have to make the best of them. And I think that the

greatest mistake those of us who are interested in the progress of

free thought can make is to overlook these limitations, and to deck

ourselves with the dogmatic feathers which are the traditional

adornment of our opponents. Let us be content with rational certainty,

leaving irrational certainties to those who like to muddle their minds

with them. I cannot see my way to say that demons are impossibilities;

but I am not more certain about anything, than I am that the evidence

tendered in favour of the demonology, of which the Gadarene story is a

typical example, is utterly valueless. I cannot see my way to say that

it is "impossible" that the hunger of thousands of men should be

satisfied out of the food supplied by half-a-dozen loaves and a fish

or two; but it seems to me monstrous that I should be asked to believe

it on the faith of the five stories which testify to such an

occurrence. It is true that the position that miracles are

"impossible" cannot be sustained. But I know of nothing which calls

upon me to qualify the grave verdict of Hume: "There is not to be

found, in all history, any miracle attested by a sufficient number of

men, of such unquestioned goodness, education, and learning as to

secure us against all delusion in themselves; of such undoubted

integrity as to place them beyond all suspicion of any design to

deceive others; of such credit and reputation in the eyes of mankind

as to have a great deal to lose in case of their being detected in any

falsehood; and at the same time attesting facts performed in such a

public manner, and in so celebrated a part of the world, as to render

the detection unavoidable: _all which circumstances are requisite to

give us a full assurance in the testimony of men_."[50]

The preceding paper called forth the following criticism

signed "Agnosco," to which I append my reply:--

While agreeing generally with Professor Huxley's remarks

respecting miracles, in "The Agnostic Annual for 1892," it

has seemed to me that one of his arguments at least requires

qualification. The Professor, in maintaining that so-called

miraculous events are possible, although the evidence

adduced is not sufficient to render them probable, refers to

the possibility of changing water into wine by molecular

recomposition. He tells us that, "if carbon can be got out

of hydrogen or oxygen, the conversion of water into wine

comes within range of scientific possibility." But in

maintaining that miracles (so-called) have a _prospective_

possibility, Professor Huxley loses sight--at least, so it

appears to me--of the question of their _retrospective_

possibility. For, if it requires a certain degree of

knowledge and experience, yet far from having been attained,

to perform those acts which have been called miraculous, it

is not only improbable, but impossible likewise, that they

should have been done by men whose knowledge and experience

were considerably less than our own. It has seemed to me, in

fact, that this question of the retrospective possibility of

miracles is more important to us Rationalists, and, for the

matter of that, to Christians also, than the question of

their prospective possibility, with which Professor Huxley's

article mainly deals. Perhaps the Professor himself could

help those of us who think so, by giving us his opinion.

I am not sure that I fully appreciate the point raised by

"Agnosco," nor the distinction between the prospective and

the retrospective "possibility" of such a miracle as the

conversion of water into wine. If we may contemplate such an

event as "possible" in London in the year 1900, it must, in

the same sense, have been "possible" in the year 30 (or

thereabouts) at Cana in Galilee. If I should live so long, I

shall take great interest in the announcement of the

performance of this operation, say, nine years hence; and,

if there is no objection raised by chemical experts, I shall

accept the fact that the feat has been performed, without

hesitation. But I shall have no more ground for believing

the Cana story than I had before; simply because the

evidence in its favour will remain, for me, exactly where it

is. Possible or impossible, that evidence is worth nothing.

To leave the safe ground of "no evidence" for speculations

about impossibilities, consequent upon the want of

scientific knowledge of the supposed workers of miracles,

appears to me to be a mistake; especially in view of the

orthodox contention that they possessed supernatural power

and supernatural knowledge. T.H. HUXLEY.

Collected Essays, Volume V Science and Christian Tradition: Essays · 第 36 / 68 题