THE AFFIRMATIVE GUARANTY AND BALANCE OF POWER
While I was engaged in the preparation of these articles for discussion,
which were based primarily on the equality of nations and avoided a
mutual guaranty or other undertaking necessitating a departure from that
principle, M. Clemenceau delivered an important address in the Chamber
of Deputies at its session on December 30, 1918. In this address the
French Premier declared himself in favor of maintaining the doctrine of
"the balance of power" and of supporting it by a concert of the Great
Powers. During his remarks he made the following significant assertion,
"This system of alliances, which I do not renounce, will be my guiding
thought at the Conference, if your confidence sends me to it, so that
there will be no separation in peace of the four powers which have
battled side by side."
M. Clemenceau's words caused a decided sensation among the delegates
already in Paris and excited much comment in the press. The public
interest was intensified by the fact that President Wilson had but a day
or two before, in an address at Manchester, England, denounced the
doctrine of "the balance of power" as belonging to the old international
order which had been repudiated because it had produced the conditions
that resulted in the Great War.
A week after the delivery of M. Clemenceau's address I discussed his
declarations at some length with Colonel House, and he agreed with me
that the doctrine was entirely contrary to the public opinion of the
world and that every effort should be made to prevent its revival and to
end the "system of alliances" which M. Clemenceau desired to continue.
During this conversation I pointed out that the form of affirmative
guaranty, which the President then had in mind, would unavoidably impose
the burden of enforcing it upon the Great Powers, and that they, having
that responsibility, would demand the right to decide at what time and
in what manner the guaranty should be enforced. This seemed to me to be
only a different application of the principle expressed in the doctrine
of "the balance of power" and to amount to a practical continuance of
the alliances formed for prosecution of the war. I said that, in my
judgment, if the President's guaranty was made the central idea of the
League of Nations, it would play directly into the hands of M.
Clemenceau because it could mean nothing other than the primacy of the
great military and naval powers; that I could not understand how the
President was able to harmonize his plan of a positive guaranty with his
utterances at Manchester; and that, if he clung to his plan, he would
have to accept the Clemenceau doctrine, which would to all intents
transform the Conference into a second Congress of Vienna and result in
a reversion to the old undesirable order, and its continuance in the
League of Nations.
It was my hope that Colonel House, to whom I had shown the letter and
memoranda which I had sent to the President, would be so impressed with
the inconsistency of favoring the affirmative guaranty and of opposing
the doctrine of "the balance of power," that he would exert his
influence with the President to persuade him to find a substitute for
the guaranty which Mr. Wilson then favored. It seemed politic to
approach the President in this way in view of the fact that he had never
acknowledged my letter or manifested any inclination to discuss the
subject with me.
This hope was increased when the Colonel came to me on the evening of
the same day that we had the conversation related above and told me that
he was "entirely converted" to my plan for a negative guaranty and for
the organization of a League.
At this second interview Colonel House gave me a typewritten copy of the
President's plan and asked me to examine it and to suggest a way to
amend it so that it would harmonize with my views. This was the first
time that I had seen the President's complete plan for a League. My
previous knowledge had been gained orally and was general and more or
less vague in character except as to the guaranty of which I had an
accurate idea through the President's "Bases of Peace" of 1917, and
Point XIV of his address of January 8, 1918. At the time that the
typewritten plan was handed to me another copy had already been given to
the printer of the Commission. It was evident, therefore, that the
President was satisfied with the document. It contained the theory and
fundamental principles which he advocated for world organization.