CONCLUSION
Dated:
PETROGRAD,
_September 2, 1915_.
A great deal has happened since the Fall of Warsaw which one must
regret, but at the same time the incidents or disasters must be viewed
in their proper perspective. The loss of Kovno, Novo-Georgievsk and
many other positions are all unfortunate, but must I think be taken
as by-products of the loss of Warsaw. With these enormous extended
fronts which modern war presents for the same time, there always
develop certain points on the line which may be called keystones. In
the Galician campaign, the Dunajec line and Gorlice was the keystone.
Once this was pulled out and a number of corps eliminated, the whole
vast line from the Vistula to the Bukovina was thrown into a state of
oscillation. Once the withdrawal of one army started, the whole line,
even to the Warsaw Front, was affected. Armies such as the Bukovina
army, which was actually advancing for ten days after the first attack
began hundreds of miles away, first halted and finally had to come
back to maintain the symmetry of the whole. A great Front, changing
over hundreds of versts, means that the whole line can stop only when
the weakest unit can stop. A chain is no stronger than its weakest link
and the same is roughly true of a Front.
We saw this clearly in Galicia. It has been apparent to every one that
Warsaw was the keystone of the campaign in Poland. Once Warsaw was
given up under the conditions which then existed, everything that has
happened could have been foreseen. It was clear to all on this Front
who had followed these movements closely, that the next line would
be far in the rear, and that when the general change of Front came,
many places would have to be sacrificed. Novo-Georgievsh as a matter
of course was doomed. Its function was to protect the flank of the
Warsaw defences. It actually held out for two weeks after Warsaw was
abandoned, and this delay to the Germans enabled the Russians to get
their army clear of a dangerously active pursuit. Fortresses in modern
war must, as many believe, be regarded as checks to the mobility of an
enemy, rather than as permanent blocks to his progress. Noro-Georgievsh
was this, and certainly justified the loss of the garrison and the
cost of its construction. Liége is a still better example. Certainly
no fortress can withstand modern big guns, and if by their sacrifice
they play their part in the game, they have more than served their
ends. To hold on to a fortress with a large garrison only magnifies
its importance, creates a bad moral effect when it falls, and entails
the loss of a field army. Perhaps the Austrian conduct of Przemysl
will become the historic warning in future wars as what not to do with
fortresses. From an extremely intimate contact of the terrain, I felt
certain that the next jump from Warsaw would be Brest-Litowsk. I had
visited that place five or six times and felt equally sure that if
the Germans made a definite bid for it, it would not be defended. The
Russians knew this, and in the army there was no keen disappointment at
its loss; for I think no one who knew conditions expected that there
would be a big battle there, though many believed that the enemy would
never try seriously to go further. That they have done so is looked
upon by many as a mistake of the Germans. Time only can tell. The
Russians are now on the move to another line. The enemy may continue to
follow, but in this district one does not see any point the capture of
which can have any great benefit which they could ensure before winter
sets in. The only result which can seriously assist them is the capture
of Petrograd, and even this would not, I believe, insure a peace with
Russia.
[Illustration: Refugees on the road to Brest-Litovsk.]
As a matter of fact it seems to the writer pretty certain that the
enemy will not reach half way to Petrograd before the winter sets in,
and after that its capture is increasingly unlikely. Once one has left
the Front one obtains more accurate news as to the situation on this
line of battle from the foreign papers than from any other source. In
Petrograd, in civilian circles, there is great pessimism as to the
military situation, but this is not shared by those who are in the
confidence of the highest authorities. The only danger that seriously
and immediately menaces the Russians is rapidly passing away. It was
dangerous because it was insidious. It is certainly worth discussion.
It was of course to be expected that the moment the Russian Armies left
Warsaw and the entire line began to retire on new positions, there
should be a period of great ambiguity. For several weeks the armies
were in constant movement, and from day to day their exact positions
were uncertain. As they went back, they obviously left many towns and
positions behind them, with the result that for weeks the Germans have
been having a continuous celebration over their advances. During this
period very little news was available in Petrograd, which at the best
is pessimistic and quick to jump at conclusions of disaster. There
is here, as all the world knows, an enormous German influence, and
whenever the military situation is in the least ambiguous, there
start immediately in a thousand different quarters reports of disaster
which in an hour are all over Petrograd. That these reports originate
from German sympathizers is hardly questioned, and that the whole
propaganda is well organized is equally certain.
[Illustration: Roll call during the retreat from Warsaw. All that was
left of them.]
The past two weeks has found Petrograd in a receptive mood for gloomy
news, and inasmuch as nothing of a favourable nature has come from the
Russian Army, the German propaganda of insidious and subtle rumours and
reports has run through the city like a prairie fire after a drought.
Three main themes have been worked up and circulated for all that they
would stand. It was said first that there was lack of harmony among the
Allies, and that the Russian high authorities were not satisfied with
the conduct of the war in the West. The corollary of this of course was
that without harmony the cause was lost. Next came the assertion that
the army was demoralized, and had lost hope and therefore wanted peace.
Then the shortage of ammunition was magnified until half the gullible
population were almost willing to believe that the army were fighting
with pitchforks and shotguns. Out of all this came the assertion that
peace was inevitable and that the Germans would take Petrograd. For
a week or more these topics circulated and grew with such alarming
rapidity that at last the Government was obliged to take notice of the
propaganda, which was finally squelched by a statement issued to _The
Times_ and the Russian Press by M. Serge Sazonov, the distinguished and
clever minister of Foreign Affairs.
In this interview the Russian statesman, speaking for the Government,
made a categorical denial of the slanders against the Government
and the Russian people. He stated without reservation that there
was not now, nor had there ever been, a lack of harmony between the
military or civil authorities of the Allies, and announced that the
Russian Government not only approved of, but had implicit faith in the
programme of the Allies in the West. He then discussed the munitions
question, and asserted that all steps were being taken to fill
depletions in all branches of the army requirements, and lastly he
stated once and for ever that there would be no independent peace with
Germany while a single German soldier remained on Russian soil and that
the war would continue even if the Government were obliged to retire to
the heart of Russia and the contest continued for years to come. This
statement has had an immediate effect on the local panic-mongers here,
and for the moment there is a lull in the German propaganda.
[Illustration: Resting during the retreat from Warsaw.]
In the meantime it is becoming obvious that the Germans in spite of
their following up of the retiring Russians are not likely to
achieve any successes which can immediately affect the political
situation. If they take Riga and Grodno, and even Vilna, they have
done their worst for some months to come, and one cannot see what they
can accomplish further before winter sets in. If the campaign at this
stage were in June one might feel apprehensive of Petrograd, but under
the most favourable conditions it is difficult to see how the Germans
can get even halfway here before November. By that time they will be
on the verge of the winter with the ground freezing so deeply that
intrenching is difficult, if not impossible, and every advance must be
made with terrific losses. Their attempts to conduct warfare in Poland
(a much milder climate) in winter, are too recent a memory to lead one
to believe they will repeat it here. It will be remembered that their
advance on the Bzura-Rawka line froze up when winter came, and the
sacrifice of thousands did not advance them materially at that point
in spite of their most determined efforts. I think one may say, then,
that what the Germans cannot accomplish before November they will not
attempt until Spring. The pessimism and hopelessness of Petrograd seem
to be on the wane, and the reports from the Front now arriving do not
indicate either demoralization or despair in the army.
Probably one must expect retirements and rearguard actions for some
weeks to come. Ultimately the Russians will settle down on some new
line from which it is extremely unlikely that they can be driven before
the winter sets in. One hesitates to make any prophecies, as conditions
change so rapidly that it is always dangerous to do so, but perhaps it
is safe to say that with the coming of the winter and the definite lull
in the campaign which will follow, the Russians will have passed their
crisis. Given four months of rest and recuperation we shall have an
entirely new situation in the beginning of next year which will present
an entirely new problem. It will really mean the starting of a new war
with new objectives and practically with a new and re-equipped army.
There may be those who are disappointed, but history, I believe,
will conclude that this summer campaign of the Russians has been the
greatest factor so far in the war making for the ultimate victory
of the Allies. For nearly four months Germany has been drained of
her best. Men and resources have been poured on this Front since
May regardless of cost. Autumn approaches with the armies in being,
undemoralized and preparing to do it all over again. In the meantime
the Allies are preparing to begin on the West, or at least it is
generally so believed. When they do at last start, Germany will for
months be occupied in protecting herself, and will probably be unable
to act so vigorously here. If Russia gets over the period of the
next sixty days, she will be safe until Spring, and by that time she
will without doubt be able to take up an offensive in her turn.
[Illustration: Wounded returning to Warsaw.]
[Illustration: On the banks of the River Dniester. Cossack snipers in
the woods overlooking the river.]
After months of observation of the Germans it is folly to speculate on
how long they can stand this pace. It may be for six months, and it
may be for two years, but with the Allies patiently wearing down the
enemy month after month and year after year there can be but one end.
That Russia has played her part, and played it heroically, I think no
one, even the Germans themselves, can deny. There are some that like to
believe that the enemy will try to get Moscow and Kiev before winter
sets in. The former objective seems impossible, and the latter even
if obtained would, I believe, in no way compensate the enemy for his
sacrifices, for the nature of the country is such that all advances
could only be at terrific cost. Besides, Kiev, even if taken, would
not, I think, have any tangible effect on forcing Russia to make peace,
and this end alone can justify the Germans in making further huge
sacrifices.
There are many who maintain that Russia will find it difficult to
reconquer Galicia and Poland. Probably she will never have to do so.
It is perfectly possible that when the end comes, Germany will still
be on the territory of France, Belgium, and Russia. Peace will bring
back instantly all of these provinces without any fighting at all. It
matters not, then, whether Germany is broken while still in the heart
of Russia or under the walls of Berlin itself. The task is to break the
enemy and that this will be done eventually I think cannot be doubted.
It is the stamina, the character and the resources of the Allies that
in the end will decide this war, and nothing is more unwise than to
judge the situation from the study of pins moved back and forward on
the map of Europe.
Printed in Great Britain by Butler & Tanner Frome and London
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Transcriber's note:
Inconsistent spelling and hyphenation are as in the original.