THE year 1916 closes in peace discussion. There has always seemed to me
to be a likelihood that the war, the khaki and the guns, the gallant
men and the sacred graves alike would be snowed over with papers and
eventually almost lost sight of. Some eloquent German pastor cried out
in a war sermon--
_“White snow, white snow, fall, fall for seven weeks; all may’st thou
cover, far and wide, but never England’s shame; white snow, white snow,
never the sins of England.”_
Our attitude would be rather: Never the sins of Germany. But even they
must be covered at last. And the snow which the pastor asked for has
begun to fall, blown by a somewhat gusty westerly wind.
It is America that is sending it across and I imagine that Americans
would be specially interested what Russians think of the prospects for
peace.
The problem of peace as it affects Russia differs somewhat from the
problem as it affects France and Britain. It is well to keep in view
the central facts.
Germany made war on Russia and showed herself ready to sacrifice Russia
on the altar of her own greatness. The Kaiser so far from being on
friendly terms with the Tsar, set out to despoil the Tsar of tracts of
territory. Russia being an autocracy much more depended on the Tsar and
his ministers than on the Duma or the voice of the people manifested
in the press. He answered War with War. As far as can be ascertained
no attempt was made by so-called “Germans at court” to stave off war
or make a pact with Germany and sacrifice France. Several large German
landowners sold their estates and returned to the Fatherland before
the war broke out, for they knew the cash was coming. Germany did not
wish to come to an understanding with Russia before July, 1914. Germany
thought it more profitable to sacrifice the Russians than to share with
them power in Europe.
The German people confident in the possession of an enormous armament
and of a genius for organisation which put them first and the
rest nowhere, despised Russia. Russia’s friendship was not worth
striving to obtain. There were admirable foundations for building a
German-Russian friendship of a most lucrative kind, deep German roots
in finance, commerce, government and administration and blood ties and
inter-marriages amongst important German and Russian families, but it
was thought to be more profitable to fight than to be friends.
Doubtless a German victory would have increased the profits of many
pseudo-Russian merchant houses. But from the Imperial point of view
it should be borne in mind that there is probably not the slightest
doubt or vagueness in the Tsar’s mind, and there has not been since
the outbreak of war. The Kaiser has not only injured but has insulted
Russia. There is a quarrel which can only be happily settled by the
Germans being beaten utterly in the field.
The Russian people ratified the decision of the Tsar. There was a very
great unanimity, doubtless revolutionary Russia was glad to be fighting
for the same cause as republican France and free England. The war
has been called all manner of things pleasing from a liberal point
of view, a war to protect small nations, a war against militarism, a
war of progress against reaction. But fundamentally it is a quarrel.
The press can say what it likes and theorists may theorise in terms
interesting or not interesting to those at the head of affairs. But
they for their part know one thing clearly, that it is a quarrel--it
does not matter how people justify it to their consciences as long as
they co-operate heartily in the great task of defeating the enemy.
The war, however, goes on a long time and there have been many blunders
and scandals. The political extremists care for one thing more than
for defeating Germany and that is for their political game at home
whatever it may be. It has occurred to them--cannot the war be made
the means of overthrowing the autocracy as such, by making ministers
responsible to the Duma instead of to the Emperor as heretofore. And
since the Russian retreat of 1915 a large political game with important
possibilities has developed. Political war of a kind has raged
unceasingly and rages now.
This has played a little into German hands and had it not been for
the complete, steadfast and unwavering hostility of the Tsar towards
Germany, Russia would have succumbed to the seductions of internal
strife. Germany as it is, hopes steadily for revolution in Russia--for
a nation divided against itself cannot stand.
All through 1916 a rumour, however, has been persistently spread by
word of mouth that the Tsar was likely to sign a separate peace. Every
scandal that could damage the name of the Tsar has been repeated and
magnified--the object being to obtain a transference of French and
British sympathies from the Tsar and his ministers to the Duma and
the progressive parties in the nation. Such a transference of sympathy
would naturally endanger the stability of Russia and play into the
German hands--quite apart from the question of the future of Russian
internal government and control.
I cannot record here the gossip about Rasputin, Sturmer, the Empress,
the falls of ministers. An immense amount of random rubbish is talked
in Russia. Talking political scandal is one way of passing the time.
The influence of Rasputin (a Siberian peasant and not a monk, not a
priest, though he called himself Father and gave blessings) was greatly
exaggerated. Some ladies took him up, as miracle-workers and magicians
are taken up when they can be found. But he never had any influence
with the Tsar. He seems to have been a curious character but he is now
dead and the gossip about him will cease. I do not believe he was
working for Germany--as he had very little notion of what Germany
was and could not even pronounce three consecutive words of his own
language correctly. He was an obscure being and degraded even so. He
prophesied that the Tsarevitch would lose his health if he, Rasputin,
should cease to support him. I should say the boy’s health would
improve, now that the black arts have been removed.
Sturmer, the ex-Premier, was the most unpopular prime-minister Russia
has had. He, happily, has gone. And in Russia they never come back.
The fall of Sazonof was a shock. The motive for his retirement is said
to be the Japanese agreement which he arranged. It was also said to
be due to disagreement over Poland. The British diplomatic body has
undoubtedly leaned on Sazonof and would like to bring him back. Our
diplomacy in Russia during 1916 has, however, been in no way inspired.
Its object seems to have been to play a political game, as at Salonika
so at Petrograd, and to back the Duma at any cost. Buchanan has turned
out to be an extraordinary speech maker; a contrast to the silent
Russian Ambassador in London.
A cloud has been over the East obscuring it from our eyes. Happily
however at the end of the year the cloud has lifted. Sturmer has gone.
Rasputin is dead and Russia has announced clearly by the voice of her
new minister and emphatically through the lips of the Tsar what she is
fighting for.
The Tsar’s message to his army before Christmas has more significance
in it than many parliamentary debates, speeches of ministers or
theories of theorists, and I leave it fittingly as the close of this
attempt at a political elucidation.
It is now more than two years since Germany in the midst of peace and
after secretly preparing over a long period to enslave all the nations
of Europe, suddenly attacked Russia and her faithful Ally France. This
attack compelled England to join us and take part in our battle.
The complete disdain which Germany showed for principles of
international law as demonstrated by the violation of the neutrality
of Belgium and her pitiless cruelty towards the peaceful inhabitants
in the occupied provinces, little by little united the Great Powers of
Europe against Germany and her ally Austria.
Under the pressure of the German troops, which were well provided
with the technical aids to warfare, Russia and France were compelled
in the first year of the war to give up a portion of their territory,
but this temporary reverse did not break the spirit of our faithful
Allies, nor of you my gallant troops. In time, by the concentrated
efforts of the Government, the disparity of our own and the German
technical resources was gradually reduced. But long before this time,
even from the autumn of 1915, our enemy was experiencing difficulty
in retaining the territory he had occupied, and in the spring and
summer of the current year suffered a number of severe defeats and
assumed the defensive along the whole front. His strength apparently
is waning, but the strength of Russia and her gallant Allies continues
to grow without failing.
Germany is feeling that the hour of her complete defeat is near, and
near also the hour of retribution for all her wrong-doings and for
the violation of moral laws. Similarly, as in the time when her war
strength was superior to the strength of her neighbours, Germany
suddenly declared war upon them, so now, feeling her weakness, she
suddenly offers to enter into peace negotiations and to complete
them before her military talent is exhausted. At the same time she
is creating a false impression about the strength of her Army by
making use of her temporary success over the Rumanians, who had not
succeeded in gaining experience in the conduct of modern warfare.
But if, originally, Germany was in the position to declare war and
fall upon Russia and her Ally France, in her most favourable time,
having strengthened in wartime the Alliance, among which is to be
found all powerful England and noble Italy, this Alliance in its turn
has also the possibility of entering into peace negotiations at such a
time as it considers favourable for itself.
The time has not yet arrived. The enemy has not yet been driven out
of the provinces occupied by her. The attainment by Russia of the
tasks created by the war--the regaining of Constantinople and the
Dardanelles, as well as the creation of a free Poland from all three
of her now incomplete tribal districts--has not yet been guaranteed.
To conclude peace at this moment would mean the failure to utilise the
fruits of the untold trials of you, heroic Russian troops and Fleet.
These trials, and still more the sacred memory of those noble sons
of Russia who have fallen on the field of battle, do not permit the
thought of peace until the final victory over our enemies.
Who dares to think that he who brought about the beginning of the war
shall have it in his power to conclude the war at any time he likes?
I do not doubt that every faithful son of Holy Russia under arms who
entered into the firing line, as well as those working in the interior
for the increase of her war strength or the creation of her industry,
will be convinced that peace can only be given to the enemy after he
has been driven from our borders; and then only when, finally broken,
he shall give to us and our faithful Allies reliable proof of the
impossibility of a repetition of the treacherous attack and a firm
assurance that he will keep to these promises. By the strength of
these guarantees he will be bound to the fulfilment in times of peace
of those things which he undertakes.
Let us be firm in the certainty of our victory and the Almighty will
bless our standards and will cover them afresh with glory, and will
give to us a peace worthy of your heroic deeds, my glorious troops--a
peace for which future generations will bless your memory.