The Prophecy Which Prompted Rizal's Policy of Preparation
For the Philippines
This extract is translated from Pages 287-289 of "Reisen in den
Philippinen von F. Jagor: Berlin 1873".
"The old situation is no longer possible of maintenance, with the
changed conditions of the present time.
"The colony can no longer be kept secluded from the world. Every
facility afforded for commercial intercourse is a blow to the old
system, and a great step made in the direction of broad and liberal
reforms. The more foreign capital and foreign ideas and customs
are introduced, increasing the prosperity, enlightenment, and self
respect of the population, the more impatiently will the existing
evils be endured.
"England can and does open her possessions unconcernedly to the
world. The British colonies are united to the mother country by the
bond of mutual advantage, viz., the production of raw material by
means of English capital, and the exchange of the same for English
manufactures. The wealth of England is so great, the organization of
her commerce with the world so complete, that nearly all the foreigners
even in the British possessions are for the most part agents for
English business houses, which would scarcely be affected, at least
to any marked extent, by a political dismemberment. It is entirely
different with Spain, which possesses the colony as an inherited
property, and without the power of turning it to any useful account.
"Government monopolies rigorously maintained, insolent disregard
and neglect of the half-castes and powerful creoles, and the example
of the United States, were the chief reasons of the downfall of the
American possessions. The same causes threaten ruin to the Philippines;
but of the monopolies I have said enough.
"Half-castes and creoles, it is true, are not, as they formerly were
in America, excluded from all official appointments; but they feel
deeply hurt and injured through the crowds of place-hunters which
the frequent changes of Ministers send to Manila.
"Also the influence of American elements is at least discernible
on the horizon, and will come more to the front as the relations of
the two countries grow closer. At present these are still of little
importance; in the meantime commerce follows its old routes, which
lead to England and the Atlantic ports of the Union. Nevertheless,
he who attempts to form a judgment as to the future destiny of the
Philippines cannot fix his gaze only on their relations to Spain;
he must also consider the mighty changes which within a few decades
are being effected on that side of our planet. For the first time in
the world's history, the gigantic nations on both sides of a gigantic
ocean are beginning to come into direct intercourse: Russia, which
alone is greater than two divisions of the world together; China,
which within her narrow bounds contains a third of the human race;
America, with cultivable soil enough to support almost three times
the entire population of the earth. Russia's future role in the
Pacific Ocean at present baffles all calculations. The intercourse
of the two other powers will probably have all the more important
consequences when the adjustment between the immeasurable necessity
for human labor-power on the one hand, and a correspondingly great
surplus of that power on the other, shall fall on it as a problem."
"The world of the ancients was confined to the shores of the
Mediterranean; and the Atlantic and Indian Oceans sufficed at one
time for our traffic. When first the shores of the Pacific re-echoed
with the sounds of active commerce, the trade of the world and the
history of the world may be really said to have begun. A start in that
direction has been made; whereas not so very long ago the immense ocean
was one wide waste of waters, traversed from both points only once a
year. From 1603 to 1769 scarcely a ship had ever visited California,
that wonderful country which, twenty-five years ago, with the exception
of a few places on the coast, was an unknown wilderness, but which is
now covered with flourishing and prosperous towns and cities, divided
from sea to sea by a railway, and its capital already ranking among
the world's greatest seaports.
"But in proportion as the commerce of the western coast of America
extends the influence of the American elements over the South Sea, the
ensnaring spell which the great republic exercises over the Spanish
colonies will not fail to assert itself in the Philippines also. The
Americans appear to be called upon to bring the germ planted by the
Spaniards to its full development. As conquerors of the New World,
representatives of the body of free citizens in contradistinction to
the nobility, they follow with the axe and plow of the pioneer where
the Spaniards had opened the way with cross and sword. A considerable
part of Spanish America already belongs to the United States, and has,
since that occurred, attained an importance which could not have been
anticipated either during Spanish rule or during the anarchy which
ensued after and from it. In the long run, the Spanish system cannot
prevail over the American. While the former exhausts the colonies
through direct appropriation of them to the privileged classes, and
the metropolis through the drain of its best forces (with, besides, a
feeble population), America draws to itself the most energetic element
from all lands; and these on her soil, free from all trammels, and
restlessly pushing forward, are continually extending further her
power and influence. The Philippines will so much the less escape
the influence of the two great neighboring empires, since neither
the islands nor their metropolis are in a condition of stable
equilibrium. It seems desirable for the natives that the opinions
here expressed shall not too soon be realized as facts, for their
training thus far has not sufficiently prepared them for success in
the contest with those restless, active, most inconsiderate peoples;
they have dreamed away their youth."