Such a title might serve for a work of not incurious nor unphilosophical
speculation, which might enlarge our general views of human affairs, and
assist our comprehension of those events which are enrolled on the
registers of history. The scheme of Providence is carrying oil sublunary
events, by means inscrutable to us,
A mighty maze, but not without a plan!
Some mortals have recently written history, and "Lectures on History,"
who presume to explain the great scene of human affairs, affecting the
same familiarity with the designs of Providence as with the events which
they compile from human authorities. Every party discovers in the events
which at first were adverse to their own cause but finally terminate in
their favour, that Providence had used a peculiar and particular
interference; this is a source of human error and intolerant prejudice.
The Jesuit Mariana, exulting over the destruction of the kingdom and
nation of the Goths in Spain, observes, that "It was by a particular
providence that out of their ashes might rise _a new and holy Spain, to
be the bulwark of the catholic religion_;" and unquestionably he would
have adduced as proofs of this "holy Spain" the establishment of the
Inquisition, and the dark idolatrous bigotry of that hoodwinked people.
But a protestant will not sympathise with the feelings of the Jesuit;
yet the protestants, too, will discover particular providences, and
magnify human events into supernatural ones. This custom has long
prevailed among fanatics: we have had books published by individuals, of
"particular providences," which, as they imagined, had fallen to their
lot. They are called "passages of providence;" and one I recollect by a
crack-brained puritan, whose experience never went beyond his own
neighbourhood, but who having a very bad temper, and many whom he
considered his enemies, wrote down all the misfortunes which happened to
them as acts of "particular providences," and valued his blessedness on
the efficacy of his curses!
Without venturing to penetrate into the mysteries of the present order
of human affairs, and the great scheme of fatality or of accident, it
may he sufficiently evident to us, that often on a single event revolve
the fortunes of men and of nations.
An eminent writer has speculated on the defeat of Charles the Second at
Worcester, as "one of those events which most strikingly exemplify how
much better events are disposed of by Providence, than they would be if
the direction were left to the choice even of the best and the wisest
men." He proceeds to show, that a royal victory must have been succeeded
by other severe struggles, and by different parties. A civil war would
have contained within itself another civil war. One of the blessings of
his defeat at Worcester was, that it left the commonwealth's men masters
of the three kingdoms, and afforded them "full leisure to complete and
perfect their own structure of government. The experiment was fairly
tried; there was nothing from without to disturb the process; it went on
duly from change to change." The close of this history is well known.
Had the royalists obtained the victory at Worcester, the commonwealth
party might have obstinately persisted, that had their republic not been
overthrown, "their free and liberal government" would have diffused its
universal happiness through the three kingdoms. This idea is ingenious;
and might have been pursued in my proposed "History of Events which have
not happened," under the title of "The Battle of Worcester won by
Charles the Second." The chapter, however, would have had a brighter
close, if the sovereign and the royalists had proved themselves better
men than the knaves and fanatics of the commonwealth. It is not for us
to scrutinise into "the ways" of Providence; but if Providence conducted
Charles the Second to the throne, it appears to have deserted him when
there.
Historians, for a particular purpose, have sometimes amused themselves
with a detail of an event which did not happen. A history of this kind
we find in the ninth book of Livy; and it forms a digression, where,
with his delightful copiousness, he reasons on the probable consequences
which would have ensued had Alexander the Great invaded Italy. Some
Greek writers, to raise the Parthians to an equality with the Romans,
had insinuated that the great name of this military monarch, who is said
never to have lost a battle, would have intimidated the Romans, and
would have checked their passion for universal dominion. The patriotic
Livy, disdaining that the glory of his nation, which had never ceased
from war for nearly eight hundred years, should be put in competition
with the career of a young conqueror, which had scarcely lasted ten,
enters into a parallel of "man with man, general with general, and
victory with victory." In the full charm of his imagination he brings
Alexander down into Italy, he invests him with all his virtues, and
"dusks their lustre" with all his defects. He arranges the Macedonian
army, while he exultingly shows five Roman armies at that moment
pursuing their conquests; and he cautiously counts the numerous allies
who would have combined their forces; he even descends to compare the
weapons and the modes of warfare of the Macedonians with those of the
Romans. Livy, as if he had caught a momentary panic at the first success
which had probably attended Alexander in his descent into Italy, brings
forward the great commanders he would have had to encounter; he compares
Alexander with each, and at length terminates his fears, and claims his
triumph, by discovering that the Macedonians had but one Alexander,
while the Romans had several. This beautiful digression in Livy is a
model for the narrative of an event which never happened.
The Saracens from Asia had spread into Africa, and at length possessed
themselves of Spain. Eude, a discontented Duke of Guienne in France, had
been vanquished by Charles Martel, who derived that humble but glorious
surname from the event we are now to record. Charles had left Eude the
enjoyment of his dukedom, provided that he held it as a fief from the
crown; but blind with ambition and avarice, Eude adopted a scheme which
threw Christianity itself, as well as Europe, into a crisis of peril
which has never since occurred. By marrying a daughter with a Mahometan
emir, he rashly began an intercourse with the Ishmaelites, one of whose
favourite projects was to plant a formidable colony of their faith in
France. An army of four hundred thousand combatants, as the chroniclers
of the time affirm, were seen descending into Guienne, possessing
themselves in one day of his domains; and Eude soon discovered what sort
of workmen he had called, to do that of which he himself was so
incapable. Charles, with equal courage and prudence, beheld this heavy
tempest bursting over his whole country; and to remove the first cause
of this national evil, he reconciled the discontented Eude, and detached
the duke from his fatal alliance. But the Saracens were fast advancing
through Touraine, and had reached Tours by the river Loire: Abderam,
the chief of the Saracens, anticipated a triumph in the multitude of his
infantry, his cavalry, and his camels, exhibiting a military warfare
unknown in France; he spread out his mighty army to surround the French,
and to take them, as it were in a net. The appearance terrified, and the
magnificence astonished. Charles, collecting his far inferior forces,
assured them that they had no other France than the spot they covered.
He had ordered that the city of Tours should be closed on every
Frenchman, unless he entered it victorious; and he took care that every
fugitive should be treated as an enemy by bodies of _gens d'armes_, whom
he placed to watch at the wings of his army. The combat was furious. The
astonished Mahometan beheld his battalions defeated as he urged them on
singly to the French, who on that day had resolved to offer their lives
as an immolation to their mother-country. Eude on that day, ardent to
clear himself from the odium which he had incurred, with desperate
valour, taking a wide compass, attacked his new allies in the rear. The
camp of the Mahometan was forced: the shrieks of his women and children
reached him from amidst the massacre; terrified he saw his multitude
shaken. Charles, who beheld the light breaking through this dark cloud
of men, exclaimed to his countrymen, "My friends, God has raised his
banner, and the unbelievers perish!" The mass of the Saracens, though
broken, could not fly; their own multitude pressed themselves together,
and the Christian sword mowed down the Mahometans. Abderam was found
dead in a vast heap, unwounded, stifled by his own multitude. Historians
record that three hundred and sixty thousand Saracens perished on _la
journée de Tours_; but their fears and their joy probably magnified
their enemies. Thus Charles saved his own country, and, at that moment,
all the rest of Europe, from this deluge of people, which had poured
down from Asia and Africa. Every Christian people returned a solemn
thanksgiving, and saluted their deliverer as "the Hammer" of France. But
the Saracens were not conquered; Charles did not even venture on their
pursuit; and a second invasion proved almost as terrifying; army still
poured down on army, and it was long, and after many dubious results,
that the Saracens were rooted out of France. Such is the history of one
of the most important events which has passed; but that of an event
which did not happen, would be the result of this famous conflict, had
the Mahometan power triumphed! The Mahometan dominion had predominated
through Europe! The imagination is startled when it discovers how much
depended on this invasion, at a time when there existed no political
state in Europe, no balance of power in one common tie of confederation!
A single battle, and a single treason, had before made the Mahometans
sovereigns of Spain. We see that the same events had nearly been
repeated in France: and had the Crescent towered above the Cross, as
every appearance promised to the Saracenic hosts, the least of our evils
had now been, that we should have worn turbans, combed our beards
instead of shaving them, have beheld a more magnificent architecture
than the Grecian, while the public mind had been bounded by the arts and
literature of the Moorish university of Cordova!
One of the great revolutions of Modern Europe perhaps had not occurred,
had the personal feelings of Luther been respected, and had his personal
interest been consulted. Guicciardini, whose veracity we cannot suspect,
has preserved a fact which proves how very nearly some important events
which have taken place, might not have happened! I transcribe the
passage from his thirteenth book: "Cæsar (the Emperor Charles the
Fifth), after he had given an hearing in the Diet of Worms to Martin
Luther, and caused his opinions to be examined by a number of divines,
who reported that his doctrine was erroneous and pernicious to the
Christian religion, had, to gratify the pontiff, put him under the ban
of the empire, which so terrified Martin, that, if the injurious and
threatening words which were given him by Cardinal _San Sisto_, the
apostolical legate, had not thrown him into the utmost despair, it is
believed it would have been easy, by giving him some preferment, or
providing for him some honourable way of living, to make him renounce
his errors." By this we may infer that one of the true authors of the
reformation was this very apostolical legate; they had succeeded in
terrifying Luther; but they were not satisfied till they had insulted
him; and with such a temper as Luther's, the sense of personal insult
would remove even that of terror; it would unquestionably survive
it.[284] A similar proceeding with Franklin, from our ministers, is
said to have produced the same effect with that political sage. What
Guicciardini has told of Luther preserves the sentiment of the times.
Charles the Fifth was so fully persuaded that he could have put down the
Reformation, had he rid himself at once of the chief, that having
granted Luther a safeguard to appear at the Council of Worms, in his
last moments he repented, as of a sin, that having had Luther in his
hands he suffered him to escape; for to have violated his faith with a
heretic he held to be no crime.
In the history of religion, human instruments have been permitted to be
the great movers of its chief revolutions; and the most important events
concerning national religions appear to have depended on the passions of
individuals, and the circumstances of the time. Impure means have often
produced the most glorious results; and this, perhaps, may be among the
dispensations of Providence.
A similar transaction occurred in Europe and in Asia. The motives and
conduct of Constantine the Great, in the alliance of the Christian faith
with his government, are far more obvious than any one of those
qualities with which the panegyric of Eusebius so vainly cloaks over the
crimes and unchristian life of this polytheistical Christian. In
adopting a new faith as a _coup-d'état,_ and by investing the church
with temporal power, at which Dante so indignantly exclaims, he founded
the religion of Jesus, but corrupted its guardians. The same occurrence
took place in France under Clovis. The fabulous religion of Paganism was
fast on its decline; Clovis had resolved to unite the four different
principalities which divided Gaul into one empire. In the midst of an
important battle, as fortune hung doubtful between the parties, the
pagan monarch invoked the God of his fair Christian queen, and obtained
the victory! St. Remi found no difficulty in persuading Clovis, after
the fortunate event, to adopt the Christian creed. Political reasons for
some time suspended the king's open conversion. At length the Franks
followed their sovereign to the baptismal fonts. According to Pasquier,
Naudé, and other political writers, these recorded miracles,[285] like
those of Constantine, were but inventions to authorise the change of
religion. Clovis used the new creed as a lever by whose machinery he
would be enabled to crush the petty princes his neighbours; and, like
Constantine, Clovis, sullied by crimes of as dark a dye, obtained the
title of "The Great." Had not the most capricious "Defender of the
Faith" been influenced by the most violent of passions, the Reformation,
so feebly and so imperfectly begun and continued, had possibly never
freed England from the papal thraldom;
For Gospel light first beamed from Bullen's eyes.
It is, however, a curious fact, that when the fall of Anne Bullen was
decided on, Rome eagerly prepared a reunion with the papacy, on terms
too flattering for Henry to have resisted. It was only prevented taking
place by an incident that no human foresight could have predicted. The
day succeeding the decapitation of Anne Bullen witnessed the nuptials of
Henry with the protestant Jane Seymour. This changed the whole policy.
The despatch from Rome came a day too late! From such a near disaster
the English Reformation escaped! The catholic Ward, in his singular
Hudibrastic poem of "England's Reformation," in some odd rhymes, has
characterised it by a _naïveté_, which we are much too delicate to
repeat. The catholic writers censure Philip for recalling the Duke of
Alva from the Netherlands. According to these humane politicians, the
unsparing sword, and the penal fires of this resolute captain, had
certainly accomplished the fate of the heretics; for angry lions,
however numerous, would find their numerical force diminished by gibbets
and pit-holes. We have lately been informed by a curious writer, that
protestantism once existed in Spain, and was actually extirpated at the
moment by the crushing arm of the Inquisition.[286] According to these
catholic politicians, a great event in catholic history did not
occur--the spirit of catholicism, predominant in a land of
protestants--from the Spanish monarch failing to support Alva in
finishing what he had begun! Had the armada of Spain safely landed with
the benedictions of Rome, in England, at a moment when our own fleet was
short of gunpowder, and at a time when the English catholics formed a
powerful party in the nation, we might now be going to mass.
After his immense conquests, had Gustavus Adolphus not perished in the
battle of Lutzen, where his genius obtained a glorious victory,
unquestionably a wonderful change had operated on the affairs of Europe;
the protestant cause had balanced, if not preponderated over, the
catholic interest; and Austria, which appeared a sort of universal
monarchy, had seen her eagle's wings clipped. But "the Antichrist," as
Gustavus was called by the priests of Spain and Italy, the saviour of
protestantism, as he is called by England and Sweden, whose death
occasioned so many bonfires among the catholics, that the Spanish court
interfered lest fuel should become too scarce at the approaching
winter--Gustavus fell--the fit hero for one of those great events which
have never happened!
On the first publication of the "Icon Basiliké," of Charles the First,
the instantaneous effect produced on the nation was such, fifty
editions, it is said, appearing in one year, that Mr. Malcolm Laing
observes, that "had this book," a sacred volume to those who considered
that sovereign as a martyr, "appeared a _week sooner_, it might have
preserved the king," and possibly have produced a reaction of popular
feeling! The chivalrous Dundee made an offer to James the Second, which,
had it been acted on, Mr. Laing acknowledges, might have produced
another change! What then had become of our "glorious Revolution," which
from its earliest step, throughout the reign of William, was still
vacillating amidst the unstable opinions and contending interests of so
many of its first movers?
The great political error of Cromwell is acknowledged by all parties to
have been the adoption of the French interest in preference to the
Spanish; a strict alliance with Spain had preserved the balance of
Europe, enriched the commercial industry of England, and, above all, had
checked the overgrowing power of the French government. Before Cromwell
had contributed to the predominance of the French power, the French
Huguenots were of consequence enough to secure an indulgent treatment.
The parliament, as Elizabeth herself had formerly done, considered so
powerful a party in France as useful allies; and anxious to extend the
principles of the Reformation, and to further the suppression of popery,
the parliament had once listened to, and had even commenced a treaty
with, deputies from Bordeaux, the purport of which was the assistance of
the French Huguenots in their scheme of forming themselves into a
republic, or independent state; but Cromwell, on his usurpation, not
only overthrew the design, but is believed to have betrayed it to
Mazarin. What a change in the affairs of Europe had Cromwell adopted the
Spanish interest, and assisted the French Huguenots in becoming an
independent state! The revocation of the edict of Nantes, and the
increase of the French dominion, which so long afterwards disturbed the
peace of Europe, were the consequence of this fatal error of Cromwell's.
The independent state of the French Huguenots, and the reduction of
ambitious France, perhaps to a secondary European power, had saved
Europe from the scourge of the French revolution!
The elegant pen of Mr. Roscoe has lately afforded me another curious
sketch of a _history of events which have not happened_.
M. de Sismondi imagines, against the opinion of every historian, that
the death of Lorenzo de' Medici was a matter of indifference to the
prosperity of Italy; as "he could not have prevented the different
projects which had been matured in the French cabinet for the invasion
and conquest of Italy; and therefore he concludes that all historians
are mistaken who bestow on Lorenzo the honour of having preserved the
peace of Italy, because the great invasion that overthrew it did not
take place till two years after his death." Mr. Roscoe has
philosophically vindicated the honour which his hero has justly
received, by employing the principle which in this article has been
developed. "Though Lorenzo de' Medici could not perhaps have prevented
the important events that took place in other nations of Europe, it by
no means follows that the life or death of Lorenzo was equally
indifferent to the affairs of Italy, or that circumstances would have
been the same in case he had lived, as in the event of his death." Mr.
Roscoe then proceeds to show how Lorenzo's "prudent measures and proper
representations might probably have prevented the French expedition,
which Charles the Eighth was frequently on the point of abandoning.
Lorenzo would not certainly have taken the precipitate measures of his
son Piero, in surrendering the Florentine fortresses. His family would
not in consequence have been expelled the city; a powerful mind might
have influenced the discordant politics of the Italian princes in one
common defence; a slight opposition to the fugitive army of France, at
the pass of Faro, might have given the French sovereigns a wholesome
lesson, and prevented those bloody contests that were soon afterwards
renewed in Italy. _As a single remove at chess varies the whole game_,
so the death of an individual of such importance in the affairs of
Europe as Lorenzo de' Medici could not fail of producing such a change
in its political relations as must have varied them in an incalculable
degree." Pignotti also describes the state of Italy at this time. Had
Lorenzo lived to have seen his son elevated to the papacy, this
historian, adopting our present principle, exclaims, "A happy era for
Italy and Tuscany HAD THEN OCCURRED! On this head we can, indeed, be
only allowed to conjecture; but the fancy, guided by reason, may
expatiate at will in this _imaginary state_, and contemplate Italy
re-united by a stronger bond, flourishing under its own institutions and
arts, and delivered from all those lamented struggles which occurred
within so short a period of time."
Whitaker, in his "Vindication of Mary Queen of Scots," has a speculation
in the true spirit of this article. When such dependence was made upon
Elizabeth's dying without issue, the Countess of Shrewsbury had her son
purposely residing in London, with two good and able horses continually
ready to give the earliest intelligence of the sick Elizabeth's death to
the imprisoned Mary. On this the historian observes, "And had this _not
improbable event actually taken place, what a different complexion would
our history have assumed from what it wears at present!_ Mary would have
been carried from a prison to a throne. Her wise conduct in prison would
have been applauded by all. From Tutbury, from Sheffield, and from
Chatsworth, she would have been said to have touched with a gentle and
masterly hand the springs that actuated all the nation, against the
death of her tyrannical cousin," &c. So ductile is history in the hands
of man! and so peculiarly does it bend to the force of success, and warp
with the warmth of prosperity!
Thus important events have been nearly occurring, which, however, did
not take place; and others have happened which may be traced to
accident, and to the character of an individual. We shall enlarge our
conception of the nature of human events, and gather some useful
instruction in our historical reading by pausing at intervals;
contemplating, for a moment, _on certain events which have not
happened_!