XIII. Don’t imagine, that in political concerns, these minute differences
are of no consequence; for oftentimes the whole depends upon them.
Historians represent Philip the second severe; and they also represent
the great Tamerlane the same, and even describe him as a ferocious and
most cruel prince; but this second charge, is either false or uncertain.
Who can comprehend, the difference there was between the severity of the
two men? perhaps it might have been imperceptible. But with all this, it
was sufficient to produce upon some particular occasions, diametrically
opposite effects. A buffoon, with whom Philip was much entertained, said
to him upon a certain occasion, a witty thing which the prince thought
was indecent, for which he punished him with banishment: a pleasant poet,
with whom Tamerlane used to amuse himself, said a satirical thing to him,
which expressed a contempt of his person; and in return, Tamerlane made
him a handsome present.
XIV. If I should be told, that this may depend not upon the substantial
diversity, and let us call it by this name, of the different geniuses,
but upon the accidental humour, which at that time prevailed in either
of the princes, it being certain, that the same person may have his
favourable and unfavourable moments, according as various internal or
external causes affect his mind, and dispose it, either towards anger, or
complacency; I reply, that for the support of my argument, one of these
causes answers my purpose as well as the other. This same accidental
disposition, is for the most part impenetrable, and is only known by
experience from bad success, and after the mischief is done. The clouds
of the soul, are sometimes seen on the brow of the countenance; but they
for the most part do not appear; nor do we perceive them, till they are
manifested to us by the flash of anger.
XV. So that all this upon reflexion, is but adding difficulty to
difficulty. A man who has business, or pretensions to advance, should
examine the genius of the prince or great person he is to negotiate
with; and when by dint of much labour and industry, he has arrived at a
thorough knowledge of him, he should watch the benign or adverse motions
of the planet, whose auspices he is to observe, which he will never find
instructions for doing, in any political almanack whatever.
XVI. From all that has been said, it may be inferred, that written
directions, are of little, or no service in these cases. They make
politicians for a coffee-house, but not for the cabinet; and may teach
people to talk, but not to act; for the hoping to find the circumstances
of the business to be treated upon, the same with those of the case or
cases in the book, would be entertaining a metaphysical and uncertain
expectation: on account, both of the substantial and accidental diversity
of the geniuses with whom you are to treat; and also, on account of the
diversity in the mode of acting by the same agent, at different times.
This last circumstance, which is but little attended to, is sufficient
of itself, for the reasons we have mentioned before, to produce effects,
totally different from those, we are taught to expect by the documents.