A short time ago I read an interesting account of Sir Max Waechter's
recent journey to the capitals of Turkey and all the other Balkan
States. He had visited these towns wit the object of laying before the
Sovereigns of the Balkan States and their Ministers proposals for
abolishing war by the creation of a European Federation of States. All
the Balkan Sovereigns and Ministers whom he had seen had expressed
themselves sympathetically and favorably and had agreed to accept the
_status quo_. A month later all the Balkan States were at war; Russia,
Austria-Hungary, and Italy were arming, and people were anxiously
discussing the possibility of a world war. The sudden transition from
peace to war appears inexplicable to those unacquainted with the
realities of foreign policy.
In July, 1908, the Turkish Revolution broke out. It was a great and
immediate success. Never in the world's history had there been so
successful a revolution or one so bloodless. As by magic, Turkey was
changed from a medieval State into a modern democracy. The Turkish
masses were rejoicing. Old feuds were forgotten. Mohammedans and
Christians fraternized. The words Liberty, Equality, Fraternity,
Parliamentarism, and Democracy were on all lips. Over night a new
Turkey had arisen. Soon the leaders of Young Turkey began to assert the
right and claims of the new-born State. We were told that European
intervention in the affairs of Turkey would no longer be tolerated, and
that those parts of the Turkish Empire which, though nominally subject
to the Sultan, were no longer under Turkish control, would have to be
handed back. Great Britain was to restore Egypt and Austria-Hungary
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Many Englishmen indorsed these claims, and told
us that a new era had opened in the East. At that time only a few
people ventured to doubt whether the Turkish Revolution would be a
lasting success. I think I was the only British publicist who
immediately and unhesitatingly foretold that Parliamentary Government
in Turkey was bound to be a failure, and that it would inevitably lead
to the formation of a Balkan Confederation which would attack Turkey. I
said then:
"European Turkey has about 6,000,000 inhabitants, of whom only about
one-third are Turks.
"The Young Turks have the choice of two evils. They must either follow
a Liberal or a Conservative policy. If they follow a Liberal policy, if
they introduce Parliamentary representation, self-government, and
majority rule in Turkey in general, and in Macedonia in particular, the
Christians will be the majority, and it seems likely that they will
then oust the Turkish minority and convert the ruling race into a ruled
race. A Liberal policy will, therefore, bring about the rapid
disintegration of the Turkish Empire.
"Foreseeing the danger of allowing the alien elements to be further
strengthened, many patriotic Turks have demanded that a vigorous
Conservative policy should be pursued which will abolish the national
differences among the alien races and between the alien races and the
Turks. They demand that a Turkish national policy should be initiated,
that the aliens should be nationalized in Turkish national schools,
that Turkish shall be the language of Turkey, that the Greek,
Bulgarian, and other schools shall be closed. Will Bulgaria, Greece,
and Servia quietly look on while the work of a generation is being
undone? Will the Greeks, Serbs, and Bulgarians residing in Turkey allow
themselves to be denationalized more or less forcibly? Besides, can
they be denationalized against their will except by destroying the
Parliamentary and democratic Government, the Constitution of yesterday,
and by reintroducing the ancient absolutism in an aggravated form? Two
hundred years ago the Turks could easily have nationalized the alien
races by means of the church and the school, but it seems that it is
now too late to make an attempt at turning the subject races into
Turks.
"In endeavoring to settle the conflicts among the alien nationalities
and between the aliens and the Turks, the path of the new Turkish
Government will scarcely be smooth. _The Balkan States_ are watching
events with attention. Although they congratulated the new Turkish
Government, they have no interest in Turkey's regeneration, and they
are bound to oppose the Ottomanization of their compatriots in Turkey.
Therefore, they _may be expected to draw the sword and to face Turkey
unitedly if they see their plans of expansion threatened by the
nationalization of the alien elements in Turkey_."
Unfortunately, my forecast has come true in every particular. The
failure of New Turkey was natural. It was unavoidable. Ancient States
are ponderous and slow-moving bodies. Their course can be deflected and
their character be altered only by gradual evolution, by slow and
almost imperceptible changes spread over a long space of time.
Democracy, like a tree, is a thing of slow growth, and it requires a
congenial soil. It can not be created over night in Turkey, Persia, or
China. The attempt to convert an ancient Eastern despotism, firmly
established on a theocratic basis, a country in which the Koran and the
Multeka are the law of the land, into a Western democracy based on the
secular speculations of Rousseau, Montesquieu, Bentham, Mill, and
Spencer was ridiculous. The revolution effected only an outward change.
It introduced some Western innovations, but altered neither the
character of the Government nor that of the people. Turkish
Parliamentarism became a sham and a make-believe. The cruel absolutism
of Abdul Hamid was speedily followed by the scarcely less cruel
absolutism of a secret committee.
The new rulers of the country were mostly very young men, who were
conspicuous for their enthusiasm and their daring but not for their
judgment and experience. They had picked upon the boulevards and in the
Quartier Latin of Paris and in Geneva the sonorous phrases of Western
democracy and demagogy, and with these they impressed, not only their
fellow citizens, but also the onlookers in Europe. Having obtained
power, they embarked upon a campaign of nationalization. However,
instead of trying to nationalize the non-Turkish millions slowly and
gradually by kind and just treatment coupled with a moderate amount of
nationalizing pressure, they began ruthlessly to make war upon the
language, and to suppress the churches, schools, and other institutions
of the non-Turkish citizens, whom they disarmed and deprived of their
ancient rights. The complaints and remonstrances of the persecuted were
answered with redoubled persecution, with violence, and with massacre,
and soon serious revolts broke out in all parts of the Empire. The
Young Turks followed faithfully in Abdul Hamid's footsteps. However,
Abdul Hamid was clever enough always to play off one nationality or
race against the other. In his Balkan policy, for instance, he
encouraged Greek Christians to slay Christian Bulgarians and Servians,
and allowed Bulgarian bands to make war upon Servians and Greeks,
supporting, on principle, one nationality against the other. But the
Young Turks persecuted indiscriminately and simultaneously all
non-Turkish races, Albanians, Bulgarians, Servians, and Greeks, and
thus they brought about the union of the Balkan States against
themselves.
The outbreak of the war could scarcely have been prevented by the
European Powers. It was bound to come. It was as inevitable as was the
breakdown of the Young Turkish _régime_. Since the earliest times the
Turks have been a race of nomadic warriors. Their policy has always
been to conquer nations, to settle among the conquered, and to rule
them, keeping them in strict and humiliating subjection. They have
always treated the subject peoples harshly and contemptuously. Unlike
other conquerors, they have never tried to create among the conquered a
great and homogeneous State which would have promised permanence, but,
nomad-like, have merely created military settlement among aliens.
Therefore, the alien subjects of the Turks have remained aliens in
Turkey. They have not become citizens of the Empire. As the Turks did
not try to convert the conquered to Islam--the Koran forbids
proselytism by force--and to nationalize them, the subjected and
ill-treated alien masses never amalgamated with the ruling Turks, but
always strove to regain their liberty by rebellion. Owing to the
mistakes made in its creation, the Turkish Empire has been for a long
time an Empire in the process of disintegration. Its later history
consists of a long series of revolts, of which the present outbreak is
the latest, but scarcely the last, instance.
The failure of the new Turkish _régime_ has increased to the utmost the
century-old antagonism between the ruling Turks and their Christian
subjects. The accounts of the sufferings of their brothers across the
borderline, inflicted upon them by Constitutional Turkey, which had
promised such great things, had raised the indignation of the Balkan
peoples to fever heat and had made an explosion of popular fury
inevitable. The war fever increased when it was discovered that
Servians, Bulgarians, and Greeks were at last of one mind, and that
Turkey's strength had been undermined by revolts in all parts of the
Empire and by the Turkish-Italian war. The Turks, on the other hand,
were not unnaturally indignant with the perfidy of the Christian
Powers, which, instead of supporting Turkey in her attempts at reform,
had snatched valuable territories from her immediately after her
revolution. Not unnaturally, they attributed the failure of the new
_régime_ and the revolts of their subjects to the machinations of the
Christian States, and the Balkan troubles to the hostile policy of the
Balkan States. The tension on both sides became intolerable. If the
Balkan States had not mobilized, a revolution would have broken out in
Sofia and Belgrade, for the people demanded war. If the Turkish
Government had given way to the Balkan States, a revolution would have
broken out in Constantinople. The instinct of self-preservation forced
the Balkan Governments and Turkey into war. The passions of race-hatred
had become uncontrollable.