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THE HIGH SCHOOL FAILURES
A STUDY OF THE SCHOOL RECORDS OF PUPILS FAILING IN ACADEMIC OR
COMMERCIAL HIGH SCHOOL SUBJECTS
By
FRANCIS P. OBRIEN
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Philosophy, Columbia University
PUBLISHED BY
Teachers College, Columbia University
NEW YORK CITY
1919
Copyright, 1919, by FRANCIS P. OBRIEN
PREFACE
Grateful acknowledgment is due the principals of each of the high
schools whose records are included in this study, for the courteous and
helpful attitude which they and their assistants manifested in the work
of securing the data. Thanks are due Dr. John S. Tildsley for his
generous permission to consult the records in each or any of the New
York City high schools. But the fullest appreciation is felt and
acknowledged for the ready criticism and encouragement received from
Professor Thomas H. Briggs and Professor George D. Strayer at each
stage from the inception to the completion of this study.
F.P.O.
CONTENTS
PAGE
I.--THE GENERAL INTRODUCTION OF THE SUBJECT
1. The Relevance of This Study 1
2. The Meaning of Failure in This Study 3
3. Scope and Content of the Field Covered 4
4. Sources of the Data Employed 6
5. Selection and Reliability of These Sources 8
6. Summary of Chapter, and References 11
II.--HOW EXTENSIVE ARE THE FAILURES OF THE HIGH SCHOOL PUPILS?
1. A Distribution of All Entrants in Reference to Failure 12
2. The Later Distribution of the Pupils by Semesters 14
3. The Distribution of the Failures--by Ages and by Semesters 14
4. Distribution of the Failures by Subjects 19
5. The Pupils Dropping Out--Time and Age 24
6. Summary of Chapter, and References 27
III.--WHAT BASIS IS DISCOVERABLE FOR A PROGNOSIS OF THE OCCURRENCE
OR THE NUMBER OF FAILURES?
1. Some Possible Factors--Attendance, Mental and Physical
Defects, Size of Classes 29
2. Employment of the School Entering Age for the Purpose
of Prognosis 31
3. The Percentage of Failure at Each Age on the Possibility
of Failures for That Age 36
4. The Initial Record in High School 37
5. Prognosis of Failure by Subject Selection 39
6. The Time Period and the Number of Failures 40
7. Similarity of Facts for Boys and Girls 45
8. Summary of Chapter, and References 45
IV.--HOW MUCH IS GRADUATION OR THE PERSISTENCE IN SCHOOL CONDITIONED
BY THE OCCURRENCE OR BY THE NUMBER OF FAILURES?
1. Comparison of the Failing and the Non-failing Groups
in Reference to Graduation and Persistence 48
2. The Number of Failures and the Years Required to Graduate 49
3. The Number of Failures and the Semesters of Dropping
Out, for Non-graduates 51
4. The Percentages That the Non-graduate Groups Form of
the Pupils Who Have Each Successively Higher Number
of Failures 55
5. Time Extension for the Failing Graduates 56
6. Summary of Chapter, and References 57
V.--ARE THE SCHOOL AGENCIES EMPLOYED IN REMEDYING THE FAILURES
ADEQUATE FOR THE PURPOSE?
1. Repetition as a Remedy for Failures 60
a. Size of Schedule and Results of Repeating.
b. Later Grades in the Same Kind of Subjects,
Following Repetition and Without it.
c. The Grades in Repeated Subjects and in New Work.
d. The Number and Results of Identical Repetitions.
2. Discontinuance of the Subject or Course, and the
Substitution of Others 68
3. The Employment of School Examinations 69
4. The Service Rendered by the Regents' Examinations in
New York 70
5. Continuation of Subjects Without Repetition or Examination 73
6. Summary of Chapter, and References 74
VI.--DO THE FAILURES REPRESENT A LACK OF CAPABILITY OR OF
FITNESS FOR HIGH SCHOOL WORK ON THE PART OF THOSE PUPILS?
1. Some Are Evidently Misfits 76
2. Most of the Failing Pupils Lack Neither Ability nor
Earnestness 77
3. The School Emphasis and the School Failures Are Both
Culminative in Particular School Subjects 81
4. An Indictment Against the Subject-Matter and the Teaching
Ends as Factors in Producing Failures 83
5. Summary of Chapter, and References 85
VII.--WHAT TREATMENT IS SUGGESTED BY THE DIAGNOSIS OF THE FACTS
OF FAILURE?
1. Organization and Adaptation in Recognition of the
Individual Differences in Abilities and Interests 87
2. Faculty Student Advisers from the Time of Entrance 89
3. Greater Flexibility and Differentiation Required 90
4. Provision for the Direction of the Pupils' Study 92
5. A Greater Recognition and Exposition of the Facts as
Revealed by Accurate and Complete School Records 94
6. Summary of Chapter, and References 96
A STUDY OF THE SCHOOL RECORDS OF THE PUPILS FAILING IN ACADEMIC
OR COMMERCIAL HIGH SCHOOL SUBJECTS
CHAPTER I
GENERAL INTRODUCTION OF THE SUBJECT
1. THE RELEVANCE OF THIS STUDY
As the measuring of the achievements of the public schools has become a
distinctive feature of the more recent activities in the educational
field, the failure in expected accomplishment by the school, and its
proficiency in turning out a negative product, have been forced upon
our attention rather emphatically. The striking growth in the number of
school surveys, measuring scales, questionnaires, and standardized
tests, together with many significant school experiments and
readjustments, bears testimony of our evident demand for a closer
diagnosis of the practices and conditions which are no longer accepted
with complacency.
The American people have expressed their faith in a scheme of universal
democratic education, and have committed themselves to the support of
the free public high school. They have been liberal in their financing
and strong in their faith regarding this enterprise, so typically
American, to a degree that a secondary education may no longer be
regarded as a luxury or a heritage of the rich. No longer may the field
be treated as either optional or exclusive. The statutes of several of
our states now expressly or impliedly extend their compulsory
attendance requirements beyond the elementary years of school. Many,
too, are the lines of more desirable employment for young people which
demand or give preference to graduates of a high school. At the same
time there has been no decline in the importance of high school
graduation for entering the learned or professional pursuits.
Accordingly, it seems highly probable that, with such an extended and
authoritative sphere of influence, a stricter business accounting will
be exacted of the public high school, as the great after-war burdens
make the public less willing to depend on faith in financing so great
an experiment. They will ask, ever more insistently, for facts as to
the expenditures, the finished product, the internal adjustments, and
the waste product of our secondary schools. Such inquiries will indeed
seem justifiable.
It is estimated that the public high schools had 84 per cent of all the
pupils (above 1,500,000) enrolled in the secondary schools of the
United States in 1916.[1] The majority of these pupils are lost from
school--whatever the cause--before the completion of their courses;
and, again, the majority of those who do graduate have on graduation
ended their school days. Consequently, it becomes more and more evident
how momentous is the influence of the public high school in
conditioning the life activities and opportunities of our youthful
citizens who have entered its doors. Before being entitled to be
considered a "big business enterprise,"[2] it seems imperative that our
"American High School" must rapidly come to utilize more of business
methods of accounting and of efficiency, so as to recognize the
tremendous waste product of our educational machinery.
The aim of this study is to trace as carefully and completely as may be
the facts relative to that major portion of our high school population,
the pupils who fail in their school subjects, and to note something of
the significance of these findings. If we are to proceed wisely in
reference to the failing pupils in the high school, it is admittedly of
importance that such procedure should be based on a definite knowledge
of the facts. The value of such a study will in turn be conditioned by
the scrupulous care and scientific accuracy in the securing and
handling of the facts. It is believed that the causes of and the
remedies for failure are necessarily closely linked with factors found
in the school and with the school experiences of failing pupils, so
that the problem cannot be solved by merely labeling such pupils as the
unfit. There is no attempt in this study to treat all failures as in
any single category. The causes of the failures are not assumed at the
start nor given the place of chief emphasis, but are regarded as
incidental to and dependent upon what the evidence itself discloses.
The success of the failing pupils after they leave the high school is
not included in this undertaking, but is itself a field worthy of
extended study. Even our knowledge of what later happens to the more
successful and the graduating high school pupils is limited mainly to
those who go on to college or to other higher institutions. One of the
more familiar attempts to evaluate the later influence of the high
school illustrates the fallacy of overlooking the process of selection
involved, and of treating its influence in conjunction with the
training as though it were the result of school training alone.[3]
2. THE MEANING OF 'FAILURE' IN THIS STUDY
The term 'failure' is employed in this study to signify the non-passing
of a pupil in any semester-subject of his school work. The school
decision is not questioned in the matter of a recorded failure. And
although it is usually understood to negate "ability plus
accomplishment," it may, and undoubtedly does, at times imply other
meanings, such as a punitive mark, a teacher's prejudice, or a deferred
judgment. The mark may at times tell more about the teacher who gave it
than about the pupil who received it. These peculiarities of the
individual teacher or pupil are pretty well compensated for by the
large number of teachers and of pupils involved. The decisive factor in
this matter is that the school refuses to grant credit for the work
pursued. The failure for a semester seems to be a more adaptable unit
in this connection than the subject-failure for a year. However, it
necessitates the treatment of the subject-failure for a year as
equivalent to a failure for each of the two semesters. Two of the
schools involved in this study (comprising about 11 per cent of the
pupils) recorded grades only at the end of the year. It is quite
probable that the marking by semesters would actually have increased
the number of failures in these schools, as there are many teachers who
confess that they are less willing to make a pupil repeat a year than a
semester.
By employing this unit of failure, the failures in the different
subjects are regarded as comparable. Since only the academic and
commercial subjects are considered, and since they are almost uniformly
scheduled for four or five hours a week, the failures will seem to be
of something near equal gravity and to represent a similar amount of
non-performance or of unsatisfactory results. There were also a few
failures included here for those subjects which had only three hours a
week credit, mainly in the commercial subjects. But failures were
unnoted when the subject was listed for less than three hours a week.
There are certain other elements of assumption in the treatment of the
failures, which seemed to be unavoidable. They are, first, that failure
in any subject is the same fact for boys and for girls; second, that
failures in different years of work or with different teachers are
equivalent; third, that failures in elective and in required subjects
are of the same gravity. It was found practically impossible to
differentiate required and elective subjects, however desirable it
would have been, for the subjects that are theoretically elective often
are in fact virtually required, the electives of one course are
required in another, and on many of the records consulted neither the
courses nor the electives are clearly designated.
3. THE SCOPE AND CONTENT OF THE FIELD COVERED
As any intensive study must almost necessarily be limited in its scope,
so this one comprises for its purposes the high school records for
6,141 pupils belonging to eight different high schools located in New
York and New Jersey. For two of these schools the records for all the
pupils that entered are included here for five successive years, and
for their full period in high school. In two other schools the records
of all pupils that entered for four successive years were secured. In
four of the schools the records of all pupils who entered in February
and September of one year constituted the number studied. There is
apparently no reason to believe that a longer period of years would be
more representative of the facts for at least three of these four
schools, in view of the situation that they had for years enjoyed a
continuity of administration and that they possess a well-established
organization. The fourth one of these schools had less complete records
than were desired, but even in that the one year was representative of
the other years' records. The distribution of the 6,141 pupils by
schools and by years of entering high school is given below.
HIGH SCHOOL PUPILS IN: ENTERING HIGH SCHOOL NUMBER
IN THE YEARS STUDIED
White Plains, N.Y. 1908, '09, '10, '11, '12 659
Dunkirk, N.Y. 1909, '10, '11, '12 370
Mount Vernon, N.Y. 1912 224
Montclair, N.J. 1908, '09, '10, '11, '12 946
Hackensack, N.J. 1909, '10, '11, '12 736
Elizabeth, N.J. 1912 333
Morris H.S.--Bronx 1912 1712
Erasmus Hall H.S.--Brooklyn 1912 1161
----
TOTAL 6141
As it is essential for the purposes of this study to have the complete
record of the pupils for their full time in the high school, the 6,141
pupils include none who entered later than 1912. Thus all were allowed
at least five and one-half or six years in which to terminate their
individual high school history, of successes or of failures, before the
time of making this inquiry into their records. No pupils who were
transferred from another high school or who did not start with the
class as beginning high school students were included among those
studied. Post-graduate records were not considered, neither was any
attempt made to trace the record of drop-outs who entered other
schools. Manifestly the percentage of graduation would be higher in any
school if the recruits from other schools and the drop-backs from other
classes in the school were included.
No attempt has been made to trace the elementary school or college
records of the failing pupils, for our purpose does not reach beyond
the sphere of the high school records. In reference to the
differentiation by school courses, some facts were at first collected,
but these were later discarded, as the courses represent no
standardization in terminology or content, and they promised to give
nothing of definite value. As might be expected, the schools lacked
agreement or uniformity in the number of courses offered. One school
had no commercial classes, as that work was assigned to a separate
school; another school offered only typewriting and stenography of the
commercial subjects; a third had placed rather slight emphasis on the
commercial subjects until recently. Only four of the schools had pupils
in Greek. The Spanish classes outnumbered the Greek both by schools and
by enrollment. In the classification by subjects, English is made to
include (in addition to the usual subjects of that name) grammar,
literature, and business English. Mathematics includes all subjects of
that class except commercial arithmetic, which is treated as a
commercial subject, and shop-mathematics, which is classed as
non-academic. Industrial history, and 'political and social science'
are regarded along with academic subjects; likewise household chemistry
is included with the science classification. Economics is treated as a
commercial subject. At least a dozen other subjects, not classified as
academic or commercial, including also spelling and penmanship, were
taken by a portion of these pupils, but the records for these subjects
do not enter this study in determining the successful and failing
grades or the sizes of schedule. Yet it is true that such subjects do
demand time and work from those pupils.
4. SOURCES OF THE DATA EMPLOYED
The only records employed in this whole problem of research were the
official school records. No questionnaires were used, and no statements
of pupils or opinions of teachers as such were sought. The facts are
the most authoritative and dependable available, and are the very same
upon which the administrative procedure of the school relative to the
pupil is mainly dependent. The individual, cumulative records for the
pupils provided the chief source of the facts secured. These school
records, as might be expected, varied considerably as to the form, the
size, the simplicity in stating facts, and the method of filing; but
they were quite similar in the facts recorded, as well as in the
completeness and care with which the records were compiled. It may be
added that only schools having such records were included in the
investigation.
After the meanings of symbols and devices and the methods of recording
the facts had been fully explained and carefully studied for the
records of any school, the selection of the pupil records was then
made, on the basis of the year of the pupils' entrance to the school,
including all the pupils who had actually entered and undertaken work.
(Pupils who registered but failed to take up school work were entirely
disregarded.) These individual records were classified into the failing
and the non-failing divisions, then into graduating and non-graduating
groups, with the boys and girls differentiated throughout. As fast as
the records were read and interpreted into the terms required they were
transcribed, with the pupils' names, by the author himself, to large
sheets (16x20) from which the tabulations were later made. There was
always an opportunity to ask questions and to make appeals for
information either to the principal himself or to the secretary in
charge of the records. This tended to reduce greatly the danger of
mistakes other than those of chance error. The task of transcribing the
data was both tedious and prolonged. This process alone required as
much as four weeks for each of the larger schools, and without the
continued and courteous cooperation of the principals and their
assistants it would have been altogether impossible in that time.
Some arbitrary decisions and classifications proved necessary in
reference to certain facts involved in the data employed in this study.
All statements of age will be understood as applying to within the
nearest half year; that is, fifteen years of age will mean within the
period from fourteen years and a half to fifteen years and a half. The
classification in the following pages by school years or semesters
(half-years) is dependent upon the time of entrance into school. In
this sense, a pupil who entered either in September or in February is
regarded as a first semester pupil, however the school classes are
named. As promotions are on a subject basis in each of the schools
there is no attempt to classify later by promotions, but the
time-in-school basis is retained. In reference to school marks or
grades, letters are here employed, although four of the eight schools
employ percentage grading. Whether the passing mark is 60, as in some
of the schools, or 70, as in others, the letter C is used to represent
one-third of the distance from the failing mark to 100 per cent; B is
used to represent the next third of the distance; and A is used to
express the upper third of the distance. The plus and minus signs,
attached to the gradings in three of the schools, are disregarded for
the purposes of this study, except that when D+ occurred as a
conditional passing mark it was treated as a C. Otherwise D has been
used to signify a failing grade in a subject, which means that the
grade is somewhere below the passing mark. The term 'graduates' is
meant to include all who graduate, either by diploma or by certificate.
Any statement made in the following pages of 'time in school' or of
time spent for 'securing graduation' will not include as a part of such
period a semester in which the pupil is absent all or nearly all of the
time, as in the case of absence due to illness.
5. THE SELECTION AND RELIABILITY OF THESE SOURCES OF DATA
By employing data secured only from official school records and in the
manner stated, this study has been limited to those schools that
provide the cumulative pupil records, with continuity and completeness,
for a sufficient period of years. Some schools had to be eliminated
from consideration for our purposes because the cumulative records
covered too brief a period of years. In other schools administrative
changes had broken the continuity of the records, making them difficult
to interpret or undependable for this study. The shortage of clerical
help was the reason given in one school for completing only the records
of the graduates. In addition to the requirements pertaining to
records, only publicly administered and co-educational schools have
been included among those whose records are used. It was also
considered important to have schools representing the large as well as
the small city on the list of those studied. Since many schools do not
possess these important records, or do not recognize their value, it is
quite probable that the conditions prescribed here tended to a
selection of schools superior in reference to systematic procedure,
definite standards, and stable organization, as compared to those in
general which lack adequate records.
The reliability and correctness of these records for the schools named
are vouched for and verbally certified by the principals as the most
dependable and in large part the only information of its kind in the
possession of the schools. In each of these schools the principals have
capable assistants who are charged with the keeping of the records,
although they are aided at times by teachers or pupils who work under
direction. In three of the larger schools a special secretary has full
charge of the records, and is even expected to make suggestions for
revisions and improvements of the forms and methods. In view of such
facts it seems doubtful that one could anywhere find more dependable
school records of this sort. It was true of one of the schools that
the records previous to 1909 proved to be unreliable. There is no
inclination here to deny the existence of defects and limitations to
these records, but the intimate acquaintance resulting from close
inquiry, involving nearly every factor which the records contain, is
convincing that for these schools at least the records are highly
dependable.
However, there is some tendency for even the best school records to
understate the full situation regarding failure, while there is no
corresponding tendency to overstate or to record failures not made. Not
infrequently the pupils who drop out after previously failing may
receive no mark or an incomplete one for the last semester in school.
Although a portion or all of such work may obviously merit failure, yet
it is not usually so recorded. In a similar manner pupils who remain in
school one or two semesters or less, but take no examinations and
receive no semester grades, might reasonably be considered to have
failed if they shunned examinations merely to escape the recording of
failures, as sometimes appears to be the case when judged from the
incomplete grades recorded for only a part of the semester. A few
pupils will elect to 'skip' the regular term examination, and then
repeat the work of that semester, but no failures are recorded in such
instances. Some teachers, when recording for their own subjects, prefer
to indicate a failure by a dash mark or by a blank space until after
the subject is satisfied later, and the passing mark is then filled in.
One school indicates failure entirely by a short dash in the space
provided, and then at times there occurs the 'cond' (conditioned) in
pencil, apparently to avoid the classification as a failure by the
usual sign. One finds some instances of a '?' or an 'inc' (incomplete)
as a substitute for a mark of failure. Again, where there is no
indication of failure recorded, the dates accompanying the grades for
the subjects may tell the tale that two semesters were required to
complete one semester's work in a subject. Some of these situations
were easily discernible, and the indisputable failures treated as such
in the succeeding tabulations; but in many instances this was not
possible, and partial statement of these cases is all that is
attempted.
How far these selected schools, their pupils, and the facts relating to
them are representative or typical of the schools, the pupils, and the
same facts for the states of New Jersey and New York, cannot be
definitely known from the information that is now available. It seems
indisputable, however, that the schools concerned in this study are at
least among the better schools of these two states. If we may feel
assured that the 6,141 pupils here included are fairly and generally
representative of the facts for the eight schools to which they belong
and which had an enrollment of 14,620 pupils in 1916; and if we are
justified in classing these schools as averaging above the median rank
of the schools for these states, then the statistical facts presented
in the following pages may seem to be a rather moderate statement
regarding the failures of high school pupils for the states referred
to. It must be noted in this connection, however, that it is not
unlikely that such schools, with their adequate records, will have the
facts concerning failure more certainly recorded than will those whose
records are incomplete, neglected, or poorly systematized.
A partial comparison of the teachers is possible between the schools
represented here and those of New York and New Jersey. More than four
hundred teachers comprised the teaching staff for the 6,141 pupils of
the eight schools reported here. Of these about 40 per cent were men,
while the percentage of men of all high school teachers in New Jersey
and New York[4] was about 38 for the year 1916. The men in these
schools comprised 50 per cent of the teachers in the subjects which
prove most difficult by producing the most failures, and they were more
frequently found teaching in the advanced years of these subjects. It
is not assumed here that men are superior as high school teachers, but
the endeavor is rather to show that the teaching force was by its
constitution not unrepresentative. It may be added here that few high
schools anywhere have a more highly selected and better paid staff of
teachers than are found in this group of schools. It is indeed not easy
to believe that the situation in these eight selected schools regarding
failure and its contributing factors could not be readily duplicated
elsewhere within the same states.
A SUMMARY OF CHAPTER I
The American people have a large faith in the public high school. It
enrolls approximately 84 per cent of the secondary school pupils of the
United States. High school attendance is becoming legally and
vocationally compulsory. The size of the waste product demands a
diagnosis of the facts. This study aims to discover the significant
facts relative to the failing pupils.
Failure is used in the unit sense of non-passing in a semester subject.
Failures are then counted in terms of these units.
This study includes 6,141 pupils belonging to eight different high
schools and distributed throughout two states. The cumulative,
official, school records for these pupils formed the basis of the data
used.
The schools were selected primarily for their possession of adequate
records. More dependable school records than those employed are not
likely to be found, yet they tend to understate the facts of failure.
It is quite possible that a superior school, and one with a high grade
teaching staff, is actually selected by the requirements of the study.
REFERENCES:
1. _Annual Report of United States Commissioner of Education for 1917._
2. Josslyn, H.W. Chapter IV, in Johnson's _Modern High School_.
3. _The Money Value of Education._ Bulletin No. 22, 1917, United States
Bureau of Education.
4. New York and New Jersey _State School Reports for 1917_.
CHAPTER II
HOW EXTENSIVE ARE THE FAILURES OF THE HIGH SCHOOL PUPILS?
1. A DISTRIBUTION OF ALL ENTRANTS IN REFERENCE TO FAILURE
With no purpose of making this a comparative study of schools, the
separate units or schools indicated in Chapter I will from this point
be combined into a composite and treated as a single group. It becomes
possible, with the complete and tabulated facts pertaining to a group
of pupils, after their high school period has ended, to get a
comprehensive survey of their school records and to answer such
questions as: (1) What part of the total number of boys or of girls
have school failures? (2) To what extent are the non-failing pupils the
ones who succeed in graduating? (3) To what extent do the failing
pupils withdraw early? The following tabulation will show how two of
these questions are answered for the 6,141 pupils here reported on.
ALL ALL
ENTRANTS FAILING GRADUATES FAILING
Totals 6,141 3,573 (58.2%) 1,936 1,125 (58.1%)
Boys 2,646 1,645 (62.1%) 796 489 (61.4%)
Girls 3,495 1,928 (55.1%) 1,140 639 (55.8%)
From this distribution we readily compute that the percentage of pupils
who fail is 58.2 per cent (boys--62.1, girls--55.1). But this statement
is itself inadequate. It does not take into account the 808 pupils who
received no grades and had no chance to be classed as failing, but who
were in most cases in school long enough to receive marks, and a
portion of whom were either eliminated earlier or deterred from
examinations by the expectation of failing. It seems entirely safe to
estimate that no less than 60 per cent of this non-credited number
should[5] be treated as of the failing group[6] of pupils. Then the
percentage of pupils to be classed as failing in school subjects
becomes 66 per cent (boys--69.6, girls--63.4).
In considering the second inquiry above, we find from the preceding
distribution of pupils that 58.1 per cent (boys--61.4, girls--55.8) of
all pupils that graduate have failed in one or more subjects one or
more times. This percentage varies from 34 per cent to 73 per cent by
schools, but in only two instances does the percentage fall below 50
per cent, and in one of these two it is almost 50 per cent.
We may now ask, when do the failing and the non-failing non-graduates
drop out of school? Of the total number of non-graduates (4,205), there
are 2,448 who drop out after failing one or more times, and 1,757 who
drop out without failing. The cumulative percentages of the
non-graduates in reference to dropping out are here given.
CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGES OF THE FAILING NON-GRADUATES AS THEY ARE
LOST BY SEMESTERS
LOST BY END
OF SEMESTER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Per Cent 14.1 33.9 46.4 64.9 72.9 85.2 91.9 97.6 99.1
CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGES OF NON-FAILING NON-GRADUATES AS THEY ARE
LOST BY SEMESTERS
LOST BY END
OF SEMESTER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Per Cent 61.1 78.0 85.9 92.1 94.5 98.4 99.5 .. ..
Briefly stated, the above percentages assert that more than three
fourths of those who neither fail nor graduate have left school by the
end of the first year, while only 33.9 per cent of those non-graduates
who fail have left so early. More than 50 per cent of the failing
non-graduates continue in school to near the end of the second year. By
that time about 90 per cent of the non-failing non-graduates have been
lost from school. By a combination of the above groups we get the
percentages of all non-graduates lost by successive semesters.
CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGES OF ALL NON-GRADUATES LOST BY SUCCESSIVE SEMESTERS
LOST BY END
OF SEMESTER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Per Cent 33.7 53.4 62.6 76.2 81.9 90.7 94.0 98.6
These percentages of non-graduates indicate that more than 50 per cent
of those who do not graduate are gone by the end of the first year,
but that there are a few who continue beyond four years without
graduating.
2. THE LATER DISTRIBUTION OF PUPILS BY SEMESTERS
Consideration is here given to the number of the total entrants
remaining in school for each successive semester, and then to the
accompanying percentages of failure for each group. The following
figures show the rapid decline in numbers.
THE PERSISTENCE OF PUPILS IN SCHOOL, BY SEMESTERS
END OF SEMESTER 1 2 3 4 5 6 Graduate
6,141 (Total) 4,723 3,893 3,508 2,935 2,697 2,234 1,936
Percentages 76.9 63.4 57.1 47.8 43.9 36.4 31.5
As was pointed out in Section 3 of Chapter I, the above group does not
include any increment to its own numbers by means of transfer from
other classes or schools. We find, accompanying this reduction in the
number of pupils, which shows more than 50 per cent gone by the end of
the second year in school, that there is no corresponding reduction in
the percentage of pupils failing each semester on the basis of the
number of those in school for that semester.
PERCENTAGE OF PUPILS FAILING OF THE PUPILS IN SCHOOL FOR THAT PERIOD
Semesters 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Per Cent 34.2 37.3 38.5 40.2 38.2 37.1 30.0 24.0
There is no difficulty in grasping the simple and definite significance
of these figures, for they tell us that the percentage of pupils
failing increases for the first four semesters, slightly declines for
two semesters, with a greater decline for two more semesters. These
percentages of failures are based on the number of pupils enrolled at
the beginning of the semester, and are accordingly lower than the facts
would really warrant since that number is in each case considerably
reduced by the end of the same semester.
3. THE DISTRIBUTION OF FAILURES
That the failures are widely distributed by semesters, by ages,
and for both boys and girls, is shown in Table I.
TABLE I
THE DISTRIBUTION OF FAILURES ACCORDING TO THE AGE AND THE SEMESTER
OF THEIR OCCURRENCE[A]
SEMES- AGES UNDISTRIB-
TERS 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 UTED TOTALS
1 B. 0 20 321 650 575 167 34 16 2 .. .. 10 1795
G. 1 19 356 813 611 236 67 3 0 .. .. 13 2119
3914
2 B. .. 2 95 423 534 256 57 27 4 .. .. 5 1403
G. .. 6 99 483 589 280 91 5 0 .. .. 7 1560
2963
3 B. .. 0 17 267 443 363 96 22 5 0 .. 2 1215
G. .. 1 28 318 548 317 99 15 0 2 .. 1 1329
2544
4 B. .. .. 5 101 437 403 169 32 7 2 .. 5 1161
G. .. .. 4 102 475 425 160 39 6 2 .. 6 1219
2380
5 B. .. .. 1 19 195 377 214 61 13 3 .. 6 889
G. .. .. 0 15 277 438 212 60 15 0 .. 3 1020
1909
6 B. .. .. .. 4 70 322 326 99 33 3 .. 6 863
G. .. .. .. 9 117 407 349 78 33 4 .. 3 1000
1863
7 B. .. .. 1 0 17 155 227 106 16 4 1 4 531
G. .. .. 0 2 14 200 299 127 38 0 0 3 683
1214
8 B. .. .. .. .. 0 42 173 109 49 2 .. 5 380
G. .. .. .. .. 2 58 244 140 49 10 .. 3 506
886
9 B. .. .. .. .. .. 0 31 32 18 1 .. .. 82
G. .. .. .. .. .. 4 39 67 31 5 .. .. 146
228
10 B. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 16 9 3 0 .. 29
G. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3 13 10 3 1 .. 30
59
Summary
B. 0 22 440 1464 2271 2085 1328 520 156 18 1 43 8348
G. 1 26 487 1742 2633 2365 1563 547 182 26 1 39 9612
17,960
[Footnote A: The expression of the above facts in terms of percentages
for each age group was found to be difficult, since failures and not
pupils are designated. But the total failures for each age group are
expressed (on p. 36) as percentages of the entire number of subjects
taken by these pupils for the semesters in which they failed. Such
percentages increase as the ages rise. A similar statement of the
percentages of failure by semesters will be found on p. 41.]
Table I reads: the boys had 20 failures and the girls had 19 failures
in the first semester and at the age of thirteen; in the second
semester, at the age of thirteen, the boys had 2 failures and the girls
6. For each semester, the first line represents boys, the second line
girls. There is a total of 17,960 failures listed in this table. In
addition to this number there are 1,947 uncompleted grades for the
failing non-graduates. The semesters were frequently completed by such
pupils but the records were left incomplete. Their previous records and
their prospects of further partial or complete failure seem to justify
an estimate of 55 per cent (1,070) of these uncompleted grades as
either tentative or actual but unrecorded failures. Therefore we
virtually have 1,070 other failures belonging to these pupils which are
not included in Table I. Accordingly, since the number can only be
estimated, the fact that they are not incorporated in that table
suggests that the information which it discloses is something less than
a full statement of the school failures for these pupils. In the
distribution of the totals for ages, the mode appears plainly at 16,
but with an evident skewness toward the upper ages. The failures for
the years 16, 17, and 18, when added together, form 68.1 per cent of
the total failures. If those for 15 years are also included, the result
is 86 per cent of the total. Of the total failures, 65.7 per cent are
found in the first two years (11,801 out of the total of 17,960). But
the really striking fact is that 34.3 per cent of the failures occur
after the end of the first two years, after 52.2 per cent of the pupils
are gone, and with other hundreds leaving in each succeeding semester
before even the end of the eighth. In Table II we have similar facts
for the pupils who graduate.
TABLE II
THE DISTRIBUTION OF FAILURES ACCORDING TO THE AGES AND THE SEMESTERS
OF THEIR OCCURRENCE FOR THE GRADUATING PUPILS
AGES
SEMESTERS 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 TOTALS
1 B. 0 66 84 60 5 2 3 .. .. .. 220
G. 4 68 123 68 23 4 0 .. .. .. 290
510
2 B. 0 30 95 96 41 3 2 .. .. .. 267
G. 1 25 119 121 30 11 2 .. .. .. 309
576
3 B. 0 6 108 98 71 22 1 3 .. .. 309
G. 1 15 101 158 78 20 5 0 .. .. 378
687
4 B. .. 4 54 157 107 36 6 0 .. .. 364
G. .. 1 45 186 143 51 7 2 .. .. 435
799
5 B. .. 1 10 82 142 82 17 4 3 .. 341
G. .. 0 9 145 187 88 22 9 0 .. 460
801
6 B. .. .. 4 34 158 139 32 9 2 .. 378
G. .. .. 2 70 235 178 40 13 1 .. 539
917
7 B. .. 1 0 10 115 140 65 4 4 1 340
G. .. 0 2 7 130 187 69 19 0 0 414
754
8 B. .. .. .. 0 31 122 65 25 2 .. 245
G. .. .. .. 2 45 150 95 37 2 .. 331
576
9 B. .. .. .. .. 0 24 23 13 1 .. 61
G. .. .. .. .. 4 32 40 24 0 .. 100
161
10 B. .. .. .. .. .. 1 11 5 3 .. 20
G. .. .. .. .. .. 3 12 6 1 .. 22
42
Summary B. .. 108 355 537 670 571 225 63 15 1 2545
G. 6 109 401 757 875 724 292 110 4 0 3278
5823
[Footnote: In the facts which are involved and in the manner of reading
them, this table is similar to Table I. The mode of the distribution of
totals for the ages is at 17 in this table. Further reference will be
made to both Tables I and II in later chapters of this study. (See
pages 36, 37, 41, 42).]
A further analysis of the failures is here made in reference
to the number of pupils and the number of failures each.
TABLE III
A DISTRIBUTION OF FAILING PUPILS ACCORDING TO THE NUMBER OF FAILURES
PER PUPIL, IN EACH SEMESTER
NO. OF SEMESTERS TOTALS
FAILURES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 B. 459 430 375 352 271 221 157 113 22 11 2411
G. 561 535 428 421 328 261 167 123 35 9 2868
---------------------------
32.5% 5279
2 B. 271 242 211 206 149 144 79 68 19 4 1393
G. 271 253 238 204 177 142 127 84 17 6 1519
---------------------------
34.9% 2912
3 B. 144 106 81 73 59 60 45 27 6 2 603
G. 207 103 81 75 75 83 52 38 20 3 737
---------------------------
35% 1340
4 B. 83 39 33 30 27 32 10 10 1 1 266
G. 95 50 38 35 27 39 19 19 3 0 325
---------------------------
31.8% 591
5 B. 6 3 5 8 7 8 7 2 0 .. 46
G. 3 2 6 5 1 10 6 5 1 .. 39
---------------------------
55.3% 85
6 B. .. .. 3 3 0 1 1 .. .. .. 8
G. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
---------------------------
25% 8
Tot. B. 963 820 708 672 513 466 299 220 48 18 4727
G. 1137 943 791 740 608 535 371 269 76 18 5488
10,215
Table III tells us that 459 boys and 561 girls have one failure each
in the first semester of their high school work; 271 boys and the same
number of girls have two failures in the first semester, and so on, for
the ten semesters and for as many as six failures per pupil. The
failures represented by these pupils give a total of 17,960. A
distribution of the total failures per pupil, and the facts relative
thereto, will be considered in Chapter IV of this study.
The above distribution of Table III is repeated here in Table IV, so
far as it relates to the failing graduates only.
TABLE IV
A DISTRIBUTION OF THE FAILING PUPILS WHO GRADUATE, ACCORDING TO
THE NUMBER OF FAILURES PER PUPIL IN EACH SEMESTER
NO. OF SEMESTERS TOTALS
FAILURES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 B. 110 131 137 150 162 139 120 118 19 11 1097
G. 136 142 181 200 197 180 121 89 20 3 1269
----------------------------
50% 2366
2 B. 34 49 61 69 61 75 47 28 15 3 442
G. 49 64 63 86 81 73 81 62 10 5 574
----------------------------
53.2% 1016
3 B. 10 10 14 18 12 17 27 17 4 1 130
G. 16 9 14 13 27 43 30 20 16 3 191
----------------------------
67.6% 321
4 B. 3 2 2 3 4 8 6 5 0 .. 33
G. 2 3 6 6 5 16 9 12 3 .. 62
----------------------------
71.6% 95
5 B. .. .. 0 2 1 0 3 0 .. .. 6
G. .. .. 1 0 0 4 1 2 .. .. 8
----------------------------
78.6% 14
6 B. .. .. .. .. .. 1 1 .. .. .. 2
G. .. .. .. .. 0 0 .. .. .. 0
----------------------------
100% 2
Tot. B. 157 192 214 237 240 240 204 163 48 15 1710
G. 203 218 265 305 310 316 242 185 49 11 2104
3814
This table reads similarly to Table III. There is not the element of
continuous dropping out to be considered, as in Table III, until after
the sixth semester is passed, for no pupils graduate in less than three
years. The failures represented in this table number 5,823. This same
distribution will be the subject of further comment later on. It
discloses some facts that Table III tends to conceal, for instance,
that the greater number of graduating pupils who have 2, 3, 4, 5, and
6 failures in a semester are found after the end of the second year.
4. DISTRIBUTION OF THE FAILURES IN REFERENCE TO THE SUBJECTS IN WHICH
THEY OCCUR
The following tabulation of failures will show how they were shared by
both boys and girls in each of the school subjects which provided the
failures here listed.
NUMBER OF FAILURES DISTRIBUTED BY SCHOOL SUBJECTS
Total Math. Eng. Latin Ger. Fr. Hist. Sci. Bus. Span. or
Subj's. Greek
B. 8348 2015 1555 1523 917 473 571 850 424 20
G. 9612 2300 1424 1833 812 588 1036 1013 593 13
Per Cent
of Total 24.1 16.5 18.7 9.6 5.9 8.9 10.3 5.6 .2
The abbreviated headings above will be self-explanatory by reference to
section 3 of Chapter I. The first line of numbers gives the failures
for the boys, the second line for the girls. Mathematics has 24.1 per
cent of all the failures for all the pupils. Latin claims 18.7 per cent
and English 16.5 per cent of all the failures. These three subjects
make a total of nearly 60 per cent of the failures for the nine subject
groups appearing here. But still this is only a partial statement of
the facts as they are, since the total enrollment by subjects is an
independent matter and far from being equally divided among all the
subjects concerned. The subject enrollment may sometimes be relatively
high and the percentage of failure for that subject correspondingly
lower than for a subject with the same number of failures but a smaller
enrollment. This fact becomes quite apparent from the following
percentages taken in comparison with the ones just preceding:
PERCENTAGES ENROLLED IN EACH SUBJECT OF THE SUM TOTAL
OF THE SUBJECT ENROLLMENTS FOR ALL PUPILS AND ALL SEMESTERS
Math. Eng. Latin Ger. Fr. Hist. Sci. Bus. Span. or
Subj's. Greek
17.3 24.0 11.9 8.5 6.8 10.2 12.5 8.3 .5
We note that the percentages for mathematics and English, which
represent their portions of the grand total of subject enrollments, are
virtually the reverse of the percentages which designate the amount of
total failures produced by the same two subjects. That means that the
percentage of the total failures produced by mathematics is really
greater than was at first apparent, while the percentages of failures
for English is not so great relatively as the statement of the total
failures above would alone indicate. In a similar manner, we note that
Latin has 18.7 per cent of all the failures, but its portion of the
total enrollment for all subjects is only 11.9 per cent. If the
failures in this subject were in proportion to the enrollment, its
percentage of the failures would be reduced by 6.8 per cent. On the
other hand, if the failures for English were in the same proportion to
the total as is its subject enrollment, it would claim 7.5 per cent
more of all the failures. In the same sense, French, history, science,
and the business subjects have a smaller proportion of all the failures
than of all the subject enrollments.
The comparison of failures by subjects may be continued still further
by computing the percentage of failures in each subject as based on the
number enrolled in that subject. Such percentages are here presented
for each subject.
PERCENTAGE OF THE NUMBER TAKING THE SUBJECT WHO FAIL IN THAT SUBJECT
Latin Math. Ger. Fr. Hist. Sci. Eng. Bus. Span. or
Subj's. Greek
18.7 16.0 13.5 11.6 10.4 9.8 8.2 8.0 4.1
It becomes evident at once that the largest percentage of failures,
based on the pupils taking the subject, is in Latin, although we have
already found that mathematics has the greatest percentage of all the
failures recorded (p. 19). But here mathematics follows Latin, with
German coming next in order as ranked by its high percentage of failure
for those enrolled in the subject. History has the median percentage
for the failures as listed for the nine subjects above.
The failures as reported by subjects for other schools and other pupils
will provide a comparison which may indicate something of the relative
standing of this group of schools in reference to failures. The
failures are presented below for thirteen high schools in New Jersey,
involving 24,895 grades, as reported by D.C. Bliss[7] in 1917. As the
schools were reported singly, the median percentage of failure for
each subject is used here for our purpose. But Mr. Bliss' figures are
computed from the promotion sheets for June, 1915, and include none of
those who had dropped out. In this sense they are not comparable to the
percentages of failure as presented in this study. Yet with the one
exception of Latin these median percentages are higher. The percentages
as presented below for St. Paul[8] are in each case based on the total
number taking the subject for a single semester, and include about
4,000 pupils, in all the classes, in the four high schools of the
city.[B]
[Footnote B: It is a significant fact, and one worthy of note here,
that the report for St. Paul is apparently the only one of the surveys
which also states the number taking each subject, as well as the
percentages of failure. Percentages alone do not tell the whole story,
and they do not promote the further utilization of the facts to
discover other relationships.]
The facts presented for St. Louis[9] are for one school only, with
2,089 pupils, as recorded for the first half of the year 1915-16. All
foreign languages as reported for this school are grouped together.
History is the only subject that has a percentage of failure lower than
that of the corresponding subjects for our eight schools. The figures
for both St. Paul and St. Louis are based on the grades for all classes
in school, but for only a single semester. One cannot avoid feeling
that a statement of facts for so limited a period may or may not be
dependable and representative for all periods. The percentages for
Paterson[10] are reported for about 4,000 pupils, in all classes, for
two successive semesters, and are based on the number examined. For
Denver,[11] the records are reported for 4,120 pupils, and cover a
two-year period. The percentages for Butte[12] are based on the records
for 3,110 pupils, for one school semester. The figures reported by
Rounds and Kingsbury[13] are for only two subjects, but for forty-six
widely separated high schools, whose enrollment for these two subjects
was 57,680.
PERCENTAGES OF FAILURE BY SUBJECTS--QUOTED FOR OTHER SCHOOLS
Math. Latin Ger. Fren. Eng. Hist. Sci. Bus.
Subj's.
13 N.J. H.S.'s. 20.0 18.0 16.0 .. 14.0 11.0 .. 11.5
St. Paul 21.8 13.6 14.3 17.0 10.0 10.9 7.3 11.7
St. Louis 18.0 [-------16------] 13.0 7.0 19.0 ..
Paterson 23.1 21.6 23.4 .. 12.2 13.9 18.3 8.5
Denver 24.0 21.0 12.0 .. 11.7 11.0 17.0 11.0
Butte 18.6 25.0 24.0 32.6 5.4 7.0 13.0 8.4
R and K 24.7 .. .. .. 18.5 .. .. ..
Our 8 H.S.'s 16.0 18.7 13.5 11.6 8.2 10.4 9.8 8.0
In some schools the reports were not available for all subjects. It is
not at all probable, so far as information could be obtained, that the
failures of the drop-out pupils for any of the schools were included in
the percentages as reported above, or that the percentages are based on
the total number in the given subjects, with the exception of one
school. Moreover, it is certain for at least some of the schools that
neither the failures of the drop-outs nor the pupils who were in the
class for less than a whole semester were considered in the percentages
above. So far, however, as these comparisons may be justified, the
suggestion made in Chapter I that the schools included in this study
are doubtless a superior group with respect to failures appears to be
strengthened by the comparisons made above.
It becomes more apparent, as we attempt to offer a statement of
failures as taken from the various reports, that they are not truly
comparable. The bases of such percentages are not at all uniform. The
basis used most frequently is the number enrolled at the end of the
period rather than the total number enrolled for any class, for which
the school has had to provide, and which should most reasonably form
the basis of the percentage of failure. Furthermore, the failures for
pupils who drop out are not usually counted. Yet, in most of the
reports, the situation is not clearly indicated for either of the facts
referred to. Still more difficult is the task of securing a general
statement of failures by subjects, since the percentages are most
frequently reported separately for each class, in each subject, and for
different buildings, but with the number of pupils stated for neither
the failures nor the enrollment. The St. Paul report[8] is an exception
in this regard.
To present the full situation it is indeed necessary to know the
failures for particular teachers, subjects, and buildings, but it is
also frequently necessary to be able to make a comparison of results
for different systems. Consequently, in order to use the varied reports
for the attempted comparison above, the plan was pursued of averaging
the percentages as stated for the different classes, semesters, and
years of a subject, in each school separately, and then selecting the
median school thus determined as the one best representing the city or
the system. This method was employed to modify the reports, and to
secure the percentages as stated above for Denver, Paterson, and
Butte. Any plan of averaging the percentages for the four years of
English, or similarly for any other subject, may actually tend to
misstate the facts, when the percentages or the numbers represented are
not very nearly equal. But, in an incidental way, the difficulty serves
to emphasize the inadequacy and the incomparability in the reporting of
failures as found in the various studies, as well as to warn us of the
hopelessness of reaching any conclusions apart from a knowledge of the
procedure employed in securing the data.
The basis is also provided for some interesting comparisons by
isolating from the general distribution of failures by school subjects
(p. 19) the same facts for the failing graduates. That gives the
following distribution.
THE FAILURES BY SCHOOL SUBJECTS FOR GRADUATES ONLY
Total Math. Eng. Latin Ger. Fr. Hist. Sci. Bus. Span. or
Subj's. Greek
5803 B. 660 403 521 241 191 180 251 91 7
6334 G. 782 347 673 257 240 410 394 162 12
Per Cent
of Totals 24.8 12.9 20.5 8.5 7.4 10.1 11. 4.3 .3
SIMILAR PERCENTAGES FOR THE NON-GRADUATES
As above 23.6 18.3 17.7 10.1 5.3 8.4 10. 6.3 .1
It is a noteworthy fact that the percentages of failure (based on the
total failures for the graduates) run higher in mathematics, Latin,
history, French, and science for the graduates than for the whole
composite number (page 19). The non-graduates have a correspondingly
lower percentage of failure in these subjects, as is indicated above.
The school influences in respect to the failures of the non-graduates
differ from those of the graduates chiefly in the fact that the
failures of the former tend to occur to a greater extent in the earlier
years of these subjects, since so many of the non-graduates are in the
school for only those earlier years; while the failures of the
graduates range more widely and have a tendency to predominate in the
upper years of the subject, as will be further emphasized in the later
pages of this report (see also Table IV).
5. DISTRIBUTION OF PUPILS DROPPING OUT--SEMESTERS--AGES
Table V presents the facts concerning the time and the age at which the
failing pupils drop out of school. Table VI furnishes the corresponding
facts for the non-failing drop-outs.
TABLE V
DISTRIBUTION OF THE FAILING NON-GRADUATES, SHOWING THE SEMESTER
AND THE AGE AT THE TIME OF DROPPING OUT
AGES UNDIS-
SEMESTERS 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 TRIB. TOTALS
1 B. 1 40 49 50 18 0 1 1 .. .. 1 160
G. 3 40 65 47 23 4 0 0 .. .. 3 185
345
2 B. .. 9 56 88 56 22 6 2 .. .. 3 242
G. .. 6 72 119 61 24 3 0 .. .. 6 291
533
3 B. .. 4 30 40 23 10 7 .. .. .. 0 114
G. .. 3 35 51 32 13 7 .. .. .. 1 142
256
4 B. .. 1 16 66 86 34 16 2 .. .. 3 224
G. .. 1 19 60 70 59 18 3 .. .. 0 230
454
5 B. .. .. 2 12 36 21 8 4 .. .. 3 86
G. .. .. 4 17 48 28 9 3 .. .. 1 110
196
6 B. .. .. 1 6 48 52 38 10 .. .. 1 156
G. .. .. 1 11 52 49 26 5 .. .. 2 146
302
7 B. .. .. .. 2 12 35 21 7 0 .. 1 78
G. .. .. .. 2 15 21 15 4 1 .. 0 59
137
8 B. .. .. .. 0 10 23 19 19 2 0 2 75
G. .. .. .. 2 10 31 29 10 4 2 3 91
166
9 B. .. .. .. .. 1 4 4 2 .. 1 1 13
G. .. .. .. .. 1 6 12 4 .. 0 0 23
36
10 B. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 3 3 1 .. 8
G. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4 3 3 1 .. 11
19
11 B. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0 0 0 .. 0
G. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2 1 1 .. 4
4
Tot. B. 1 54 154 264 290 201 120 50 6 2 14 1156
G. 3 50 196 309 312 235 123 34 9 4 16 1292
2448
Table V reads: In the first semester 1 boy and 3 girls drop out at age
13; 40 boys and 40 girls drop out at the age of 14; 49 boys and 65
girls, at the age of 15. In this table, as elsewhere, age 15 means from
14½ to 15½, and so on. Any drop-out, as for the second semester, means
either during or at the end of that semester.
TABLE VI
DISTRIBUTION OF THE NON-FAILING NON-GRADUATES, SHOWING THE SEMESTER
AND THE AGE AT THE TIME OF DROPPING OUT
AGES
SEMESTER 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 TOTALS
1 B. 17 118 141 106 39 3 4 1 1 430
G. 11 159 235 160 51 19 4 4 0 643
1073
2 B. 0 7 49 50 18 7 3 0 .. 134
G. 1 1 59 42 31 10 7 2 .. 163
297
3 B. .. .. 7 16 11 5 1 0 .. 40
G. .. .. 14 22 33 15 3 2 .. 89
129
4 B. .. .. 5 13 11 10 1 0 1 41
G. .. .. 7 20 31 16 2 1 1 78
119
5 B. .. .. 1 2 9 1 2 0 .. 15
G. .. .. 0 3 10 9 4 1 .. 27
42
6 B. .. .. 1 4 14 3 2 0 .. 24
G. .. .. 0 5 17 13 7 3 .. 45
69
7 B. .. .. .. 0 2 2 2 1 .. 7
G. .. .. .. 1 2 7 1 1 .. 12
19
8 B. .. .. .. .. .. 1 1 1 .. 3
G. .. .. .. .. .. 3 1 1 .. 5
8
9 B. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0 .. 0
G. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 .. 1
1
Tot. B. 17 125 204 191 104 32 16 3 2 694
G. 12 170 315 253 175 92 29 16 1 1063
1757
Table VI reads similarly to Table V. The distribution of the age totals
for the pupils dropping out gives us medians which, for both boys and
girls, fall within the 17-year group for the failing pupils, but within
the 16-year group for the non-failing pupils. For Table V the mode of
the distribution is at 17, but for Table VI it is at 15. The
percentages of dropping out for each age group are given below. First,
all the pupils of Tables V and VI are grouped together for this
purpose, then the boys and the girls for Tables V and VI are considered
separately to facilitate the comparison of facts.
PERCENTAGES IN EACH AGE GROUP OF THE TOTAL NUMBER DROPPING OUT
Ages 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Per Cent 0.8 9.5 20.7 24.2 21.0 13.3 6.8 2.4 1.2
It is readily seen from the above percentages that, as would be
expected, the drop-outs are most frequent for the very ages which are
most common in the high school. There is no special accumulation of
drop-outs for either the earlier or the later ages. But, if in any
semester we consider the drop-outs for each age as a percentage of the
total pupils represented for that age, the facts are more fully
revealed, as is indicated below for certain semesters.
PERCENTAGES OF DROP-OUTS FOR EACH AGE, ON THE TOTALS FOR SUCH AGE
IN THE FIRST, SECOND AND FOURTH SEMESTERS
AGES
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Semester 1 6.8 18.2 23.1 32.6 38.3 35.0 40.0 40.0 ..
Semester 2 4.0 8.1 14.8 18.3 22.2 30.0 40.0 33.0 ..
Semester 4 0 9.0 11.8 12.5 16.5 24.6 35.2 50.0 ..
If these semesters may be taken as indicative of all, an almost steady
increase will be expected in the percentages of drop-outs as the ages
of the pupils rise. It follows, then, that the older ages have the
higher percentages of drop-outs when this basis of the computation is
employed. We may, however, make some helpful comparisons of the ages of
drop-outs for boys and for girls by merely using the percentages of
total drop-outs for the purpose.
PERCENTAGES OF FAILING DROP-OUTS IN EACH AGE GROUP, FOR BOYS AND GIRLS
SEPARATELY
AGES
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Boys 0 4.6 12.5 22.8 25.1 17.4 10.3 4.3 1.9
Girls .2 3.8 15.1 23.9 24.1 19.0 9.5 2.6 2.2
Here it appears that, of all the boys and girls who fail before
dropping out, the school loses at the age of 14, for example, 4.6 per
cent for the boys and 3.8 per cent for the girls. As a matter of mere
convenience, the percentages for age 21 are made to include also the
undistributed pupils in Table V.
PERCENTAGES OF THE NON-FAILING DROP-OUTS IN EACH AGE GROUP, FOR BOYS
AND GIRLS SEPARATELY
AGES
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Boys 2.4 18.0 29.4 27.1 15.0 4.4 2.3 0.7
Girls 1.1 16.0 29.6 23.8 16.4 8.6 2.7 1.6
These percentages are computed from the age totals in Table VI, just as
the ones preceding are computed from Table V. It seems worthy of note
here that close to 50 per cent of the non-failing drop-outs occur under
16 years of age, for both the boys and the girls; but that the number
of the failing pupils who drop out does not reach 20 per cent for the
boys or the girls in these same years. It is likewise remarkable in
these distributions that the percentages for boys and for girls show
such slight differences in either of the two groupings.
SUMMARY OF CHAPTER II
If to the recorded failures the virtual but unrecorded ones are added,
the percentage of failing pupils is 66 per cent. This percentage is
higher for the boys than for the girls by a difference of 6 per cent.
Of the graduating pupils, 58.1 per cent fail one or more times.
Of the non-failing non-graduates 78 per cent are lost from school by
the end of their first year. But the failing non-graduates have not
lost such a percentage before the end of the third year.
The percentage of pupils failing increases for the first four
semesters, and lowers but little for two more semesters. One third to
one half of the pupils fail in each semester to seventh.
In the distribution of failures by ages and semesters, 86 per cent are
found from ages 15 to 18 inclusive. Thirty-four per cent of the
failures occur after the end of the second year, when 52.2 per cent of
the pupils have been lost and others are leaving continuously.
Mathematics, Latin, and English head the list in the percentages of
total failures, and together provide nearly 60 per cent of the
failures; but English has a large subject-enrollment to balance its
count in failures.
Mathematics, Latin, and German fail the highest percentages on the
number of pupils taking the subjects.
In several subjects the percentages of failure based on the total
failures are higher for the graduates than for the non-graduates.
For the pupils dropping out without failure the median age is at 16,
with the mode at 15. For the failing drop-outs both the median and the
mode are at the age of 17. Nearly 50 per cent of the non-failing
drop-outs occur under age 16, but not 20 per cent of the failing
non-graduates are gone by that age. The percentage of drop-outs is
higher for older pupils.
REFERENCES:
5. Kelley, T.L. "A Study of High School and University Grades, with
Reference to Their Intercorrelation and the Causes of Elimination,"
_Journal of Educational Psychology_, 6:365.
6. Johnson, G.R. "Qualitative Elimination in High School," _School
Review_, 18:680.
7. Bliss, D.C. "High School Failures," _Educational Administration and
Supervision_, Vol. 3.
8. Strayer, G.D., Coffman, L.D., Prosser, C.A. _Report of a Survey of
the School System of St. Paul, Minnesota_.
9. Meredith, A.B. _Survey of the St. Louis Public Schools_, 1917, Vol.
III, p. 51.
10. _Annual Report of the Board of Education, Paterson, New Jersey_,
1915.
11. Bobbitt, J.F. _Report of the School Survey of Denver_, 1916.
12. Strayer, G.D. _A Survey of the Public Schools of Butte_, 1914.
13. Rounds, C.R., Kingsbury, H.B. "Do Too Many Students Fail?" _School
Review_, 21:585.
CHAPTER III
WHAT BASIS IS DISCOVERABLE FOR PROGNOSTICATING THE OCCURRENCE OF OR THE
NUMBER OF FAILURES?
1. ATTENDANCE, MENTAL OR PHYSICAL DEFECTS, AND SIZE OF CLASSES ARE
POSSIBLE FACTORS
Any definite factors available for the school that have a prognostic
value in reference to school failures will help to perform a function
quite comparable to the science of preventive medicine in its field,
and in contrast with the older art of doctoring the malady after it has
been permitted to develop. Such prognostication of failure, however,
need not imply a complete knowledge of the causes of the failures. It
may simply signify that in certain situations the causes are less
active or are partly overcome by other factors.
Perhaps one of the simplest factors with a prognostic value on failure
may be found in the facts of attendance. Persistent or repeated absence
from school may reach a point where it tends to affect the number of
failures. It happened, unfortunately, that the reports for attendance
were incomplete or lacking in a considerable portion of the records
employed in this study. Consequently the influence of attendance is
given no especial consideration in these pages, except as explained in
Chapter I, that the pupil must have been present enough of any semester
to secure his subject grades, else no failure is counted and no time is
charged to his period in school. In this connection, Dr. C.H. Keyes[14]
found in a study of elementary school pupils that of 1,649 pupils
losing four weeks or more in a single year 459 belonged to the
accelerate pupils, 647 to those arrested, and 543 to pupils normal in
their school work. He accredits such large loss of time as almost
invariably the result of illness and of contagious disease. He also
says, "Prolonged absence from school is appreciable in producing
arrest especially when it amounts to more than 25 days in one school
year." But the diseases of childhood, with the resultant absence, are
less prevalent in the high school years than earlier. Furthermore, the
losses due to change of residence will not be met with here, for, as
explained in Chapter I, no transferred pupils are included subsequent
to the time of the transference either to or from the school.
The influence of physical or mental defects also deserves recognition
here as a possible factor relative to school failures, although this
study has no data to offer of any statistical value in that regard. A
few pupils in high school may actually reach the limits prescribed by
their 'intelligence quotient'[15] or general mental ability, or
perhaps, as Bronner[16] so interestingly points out, be handicapped by
some special mental disability. If such be true, they will doubtless be
found in the number of school drop-outs later referred to as failing in
50 per cent or more of their work; but we have no measurement of
intelligence recorded for them to serve our purposes of
prognostication. In the matter of physical defects alone, the report of
Dr. L.P. Ayres[17] on a study of 3,304 pupils, ten to fourteen years
old, in New York City, states that "In every case except in that of
vision the children rated as 'dull' are found to be suffering from
physical defects to a greater degree than 'normal' or 'bright'
children." The defects of vision, which is the exception noted, may be
even partly the result of the studious habits of the pupils.
Bronner[16] remarks on the "relationships between mental and physical
conditions," and also on how "the findings on tests were altogether
different after the child had been built up physically." But Gulick and
Ayres[18] conclude that it is evident from the facts at hand that if
vision were omitted the percentage of defects would dwindle and become
comparatively small among the upper grades. This would probably be
still more true for the high school; but this whole field has not yet
been completely and thoroughly investigated.
It would be very desirable to have ascertained the size of the classes
in which the failures were most frequent, as well as the relative
success of the pupils repeating subjects in larger or in smaller
classes. But, as such facts were unobtainable, it is permitted here
simply to recognize the possible influence of this factor. It seems
deserving in itself of careful and special study. From the standpoint
of the pupil, the kind of subject, the kind of teacher, and the sort of
discipline employed will tend to influence the size of class to be
called normal, and to make it a sort of variable. Thirty pupils is
regarded by the North Central Association as the maximum size of class
in high school.[19] Surely the size of class will react on the pupil by
affecting the teacher's spirit and energy. Reference is made by
Hall-Quest[20] to an experiment, whose author is not named, in which
829 pupils stated that their "most helpful teachers were pleasant,
cheerful, optimistic, enthusiastic, and young." If such be true then
the very large size of classes will tend to reduce the teacher's
helpfulness.
2. THE EMPLOYMENT OF THE SCHOOL ENTERING AGE FOR PROGNOSIS
A promising but less emphasized basis of prognosticating the school
success or failure of the pupils is found in the employment of the
school entering ages for this purpose. The distribution of all the
pupils (except 30 undistributed ones, for whom the records were
incomplete), according to entering age, is here presented,
independently for the boys and for the girls.
DISTRIBUTION OF PUPILS BY THEIR ENTRANCE AGES TO HIGH SCHOOL
AGES Undis-
Total 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 tributed
2646 B. 16 211 820 900 497 148 23 10 7 14
3495 G. 8 259 1124 1217 614 194 51 10 8 16
The entering ages of these 6,141 pupils are distributed from 12 to 20,
with 30 of them for whom the age records were not given. The median age
for all the entrants is 15.3. But in order to compare this with the
median entering age (14.9) of the 1,033 pupils reported by King[21] for
the Iowa City high school, or with the median entering age (14.5) of
1000 high school pupils in New York City, as reported by Van
Denburg,[22] it is necessary to reduce these medians to the same basis
of age classification. Since age 15 for this study starts at 14½, then
15.3 would be only 14.8 (15.3-.5) as by their classification. The
percentages of the total number of pupils for each age are given below.
PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FOR EACH ENTERING AGE
AGES
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Undistributed
Total 0.4 7.6 31.6 34.4 18.1 5.5 1.2 1.0
Boys 0.6 8.0 31.0 37.8 18.8 5.6 0.8 1.1
Girls 0.2 7.4 32.4 34.8 17.5 5.5 1.4 1.0
We see that 84 per cent of the pupils enter at age 14, 15, and 16, or,
what is perhaps more important, that nearly 40 per cent enter under 15
years of age. The similarity of percentages for boys and for girls is
pronounced. The slight advantage of the boys for ages 12 and 13 may be
due to home influence in restricting the early entrance of the girls,
thus causing a corresponding superiority for the girls at age 14. The
mode of this percentage distribution is at 15 for both boys and girls.
What portion of each entering-age-group has no failures? This question
and the answer presented below direct our attention to the superiority
of the pupils of the earlier entering ages. That these groups of
earlier ages of entrance are comprised of pupils selected for their
capabilities is shown by the successive decrease in the percentages of
the non-failing as the ages of their entrance increases, up to age 18.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE PUPILS WHO DO NOT FAIL, FOR EACH ENTERING-AGE-GROUP
AGES
Totals 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1061 B. 11 102 320 309 186 56 9 4 4
1575 G. 3 133 522 545 256 73 29 7 6
% of -----------------
Entrants 58.0 50.0 43.4 40.0 39.8 37.7 55.0
Here is definite evidence that the pupils of the earlier entering ages
are less likely to fail in any of their school subjects than are the
older ones. Those entering at ages 12 or 13 escape school failures
altogether for 50 per cent or more of their numbers. Those entering at
age 14 are somewhat less successful but still seem superior to those
of later entrance ages. It is encouraging, then, that these three ages
of entrance include nearly 40 per cent of the 6,141 pupils. There is,
of course, nothing in this situation to justify any deduction of the
sort that pupils entering at the age of 17 would have been more
successful had they been sent to high school earlier, except that had
they been able to enter high school earlier they would have represented
a different selection of ability by that fact alone. There is also a
sort of selection operative for the pupils entering at ages 18, 19, or
20, which tends to account at least partly for the rise in the
percentage of the non-failing for these years. It is safe to believe
that for the most part only the more able, ambitious, and purposeful
individuals are likely to display the energy required or to discern the
need of their entering high school when they have reached the age of 18
or later. The appeal of school athletics will in this case seem very
inadequate to explain their entrance so late, since the girls
predominate so strongly for these years. Then it may be contended
further that the added maturity and experience of those later entrants
may partly compensate for a lack of native ability, if such be the
case, and thereby result in a relatively high percentage of non-failing
pupils for this group.
It is readily conceded that the avoidance of failure in school work
serves as only one criterion for gauging the pupils' accomplishment. It
is accordingly important to inquire how the different age-groups of
school entrants compare with reference to the persistence and ability
which is represented by school graduation. A truly striking array of
percentages follows in reference to the question of how many of the
entering pupils in each age-group do graduate.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE PUPILS GRADUATING FOR EACH ENTERING-AGE GROUP
AGES
Totals 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
796 B. 14 115 290 253 99 20 2 1 2
1140 G. 5 151 465 363 121 26 5 1 0
% of Entrants 79.1 56.6 38.8 29.9 20.0 13.4 9.1 10.0 13.3
These percentages bear convincing testimony in support of the previous
evidence that the pupils of the earlier entering years are highly
selected in ability. Of all the high school entrants they are the 'most
fit,' the least likely to fail, and the most certain to graduate. The
percentage of pupils graduating who entered at the age of 12 is
approximately four times that of pupils who entered at the age of 16.
Thirteen is more than four times as fruitful of graduates as age 17;
fourteen bears a similar relationship to age 18; and the percentage for
fifteen is three times that for age 19, as is apparent from the above
figures. The fact that the decline of these percentages ceases at age
19 is probably due to the greater maturity of such later entrants.
When we make inquiry as to what portion of the graduates in each of the
above groups 'goes through' in four years or less, we get the series of
percentages indicated below.
PERCENTAGE OF THE GRADUATES WHO FINISH IN FOUR YEARS OR LESS,
FOR EACH OF THE ENTERING-AGE GROUPS
Ages 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% of Each Group 84.3 85.7 75.8 79.5 84.3 80.4 100
It appears that the ones in the older age-groups who do graduate are
not so handicapped in reference to the time requirement for graduation
as we might have expected them to be from the facts of the preceding
pages. Perhaps that fact is partly accounted for by the not unusual
tendency to restrain the more rapid progress of the younger pupils or
to promote the older ones partly by age, so that by our school
procedure the younger and the brighter pupils may at times actually be
more retarded, according to mental age, than are the older and slower
ones.
Since the same teachers, the same schools, and the same administrative
policy were involved for the different entrance-age groups, the
prognostic value of the factor of age at entrance will seem to be
unimpaired, whether it operates independently as a gauge of rank in
mental ability, or conjointly with and indicative of the varying
influence on these pupils of other concomitant factors, such as the
difference of economic demands, the difference of social interests, the
difference in permanence of conflicting habits of the individual, or
the difference in effectiveness of the school's appeal as adapted for
the several ages. One may contend, and with some success, that the high
school régime is better adjusted to the younger pupils, with the
consequent result that they are more successful in its requirements.
The distractions of more numerous social interests may actually
accompany the later years of school age. In reference to the social
distractions of girls, Margaret Slattery says,[23] "This mania for
'going' seizes many of our girls just when they need rest and natural
pleasures, the great out-of-doors, and early hours of retiring." But
surely such distractions are not peculiar to the girls alone. The
economic needs that arise at the age of sixteen and later are often
considered to constitute a pressing factor regarding the continuance in
school. But VanDenburg[22] was convinced by the investigation, in New
York City, of 420 rentals for the families of pupils that "on the whole
the economic status of these pupils seems to be only a slight factor in
their continuance in school." A similar conclusion was reached by
Wooley,[24] in Cincinnati, after investigating 600 families, in which
it was estimated that 73 per cent of the families did not need the
earnings of the children who left school to go to work. The
corresponding report by a commission[25] in Massachusetts shows 76 per
cent. The same facts for New York City[26] indicate that 80 per cent of
such families are independent of the child's wages. But Holley
concludes,[27] from a study of certain towns in Illinois, that "there
is a high correlation between the economic, educational, and social
advantages of a home and the number of years of school which its
children receive." It will hardly be denied that even aside from the
relation of the family means to the school persistence, the economic
needs may have a direct influence on the failing of the children in
their school work, either because home conditions may be decidedly
unfavorable for required home study, or because of the larger portion
of time that must be given to outside employment, with its consequent
reduction of the normal vitality of the individual or of his readiness
to study. But, in spite of the possible interrelationship of these
factors, it still appears that the school entrance age of pupils will
serve as a valuable sort of educational compass to foretell in part the
probable direction of their later accomplishment.
3. THE AMOUNT OF FAILURE AT EACH AGE AND ITS RELATION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF FAILING FOR THAT AGE
We have considered at some length the prognostic value of the age at
entrance. Here we shall briefly consider the prognostic value of age in
reference to the time when failures occur and the amount of failure for
such age. If we were to total all the failures for a given age, as
shown in Table I, what part will that form of the total subjects taken
by these pupils at the time the failures occur? In other words, what
are the percentages formed by the total failures on the possibility of
failing, for the same pupils and the same semesters, considered by age
groups? The summary line of Table I gives the total failures according
to the ages at which they occurred. The number of pupils sharing in
each group of these failures is also known by a separate tabulation.
Then the full number of subjects per pupil is taken as 4½, since
approximately 50 per cent of the pupils take five or more subjects each
semester and the other 50 per cent take four or less (see p. 61). With
the number of pupils given, and with a schedule of 4½ subjects per
pupil, we are able to compute the percentages which the failures form
of the total subjects for these failing pupils at the time. These
percentages are given below.
THE PERCENTAGES FORMED BY FAILURES AT EACH AGE ON THE POSSIBILITIES OF
FAILING AT THAT AGE AND TIME, FOR THE SAME PUPILS
Ages 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
% 36.6 38.0 37.9 40.9 40.8 41.2 41.3 42.0 42.7
[Footnote: These percentages are computed from the data secured in
Table I, as noted above.]
There is an almost unbroken rise in these percentages from 36.6 for age
13 to 42.7 for age 21. Not only do a greater number of the older pupils
fail, as was previously indicated, but they also have a greater
percentage of failure for the subjects which they are taking. It seems
appropriate here to offer a caution that, in reading the above
percentages, one must not conclude that all of age 14 fail in 38 per
cent of their work, but rather that those who do fail at age 14 fail in
38 per cent of their work for that semester. The evidence does not seem
to indicate that the maturity of later years operates to secure any
general reduction of these percentages. The prognostic value of such
facts seems to consist in leading us to expect a greater percentage of
failures (on the total subjects) from the older pupils who fail than
from the younger ones who fail. If it were possible to translate the
above percentages to a basis of the possibility of failure for all
pupils, instead of the possibility for failing pupils only, the
disparity for the different ages would become more pronounced, as the
earlier ages have more non-failing pupils. But this we are not able to
do, as our data are not adequate for that purpose.
4. THE INITIAL RECORD IN HIGH SCHOOL FOR PROGNOSIS OF FAILURE
For this purpose the pupil record for the first year, in reference to
failures, is deemed more adequate and dependable than the record for
the first semester only. Accordingly, the pupils have been classified
on their first year's record into those who had 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7
or more failures. Then these groups were further distributed into those
who failed 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more times after the first year.
From such a double distribution we may get some indication of what
assurance the first year's record offers on the expectation of later
failures. Table VII presents these facts.
Table VII is read in this manner: Of all the pupils who have failures
the first year (805 boys, and 1,129 girls) 397 boys and 672 girls have
failures later, 105 boys and 130 girls have 1 failure later, 77 boys
and 98 girls have 2 failures later, while 68 boys and 63 girls have
seven or more failures later. The column of totals to the right gives
the pupils for each number of failures for the first year. The line of
totals at the bottom gives the pupils for each number of failures
subsequent to the first year.
The table includes 3,508 pupils, since those who did not remain in
school more than three semesters are not included (1,120 boys, 1,513
girls). Obviously, those who do not stay more than one year would have
no subsequent school record, and those remaining only a brief time
beyond one year would not have a record of comparable length. It seems
quite significant, too, for the purposes of our prognosis, that of the
2,633 pupils dropping out in three semesters or less only about 43 per
cent have ever failed (boys--46 per cent, girls--41 per cent). In
contrast to this, nearly 70 per cent (69.6) of those continuing in
school more than three semesters fail one or more times. Those who drop
out without failure, in the three semesters or less, constitute nearly
60 per cent of the total non-failing pupils (2,568), but the failing
pupils who drop out in that same period constitute less than 32 per
cent of the total who fail (3,573). This situation received some
emphasis in Chapter II and will be further treated in Chapter IV, under
the comparison of the failing and non-failing groups.
TABLE VII
SUBSEQUENT RECORD OF FAILURES FOR PUPILS FAILING 1, 2, 3, ETC.,
TIMES THE FIRST YEAR
FAILURES
OF 1ST FAILURES SUBSEQUENT TO FIRST YEAR
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ TOTALS
0 B. 397 105 77 50 47 37 24 68 805
G. 672 130 98 60 53 27 26 63 1129
1069 235 175 110 100 64 50 131 1934
1 B. 46 43 34 33 35 21 15 46 273
G. 65 43 53 33 33 19 17 67 330
111 86 87 66 68 40 32 113 603
2 B. 22 24 23 23 30 21 13 57 213
G. 42 32 27 21 22 13 15 83 255
64 56 50 44 52 34 28 140 468
3 B. 7 5 16 10 10 13 10 30 101
G. 8 9 7 10 17 6 7 41 105
15 14 23 20 27 19 17 71 206
4 B. 6 8 5 7 7 11 7 23 74
G. 8 7 5 6 10 8 4 27 75
14 15 10 13 17 19 11 50 149
5 B. 3 1 0 2 1 5 3 11 26
G. 5 9 5 6 5 4 2 14 50
8 10 5 8 6 9 5 25 76
6 B. 0 1 4 2 1 1 1 10 20
G. 2 1 2 2 6 2 0 6 21
2 2 6 4 7 3 1 16 41
7+ B. 3 2 1 0 1 0 2 5 14
G. 1 2 1 1 5 2 0 5 17
4 4 2 1 6 2 2 10 31
Tot. B. 484 189 160 127 132 109 75 250 1526
G. 803 233 198 139 151 81 71 306 1982
1287 422 358 266 283 190 146 556 3508
Referring directly now to Table VII, we find that 44.7 per cent of
those not failing the first year do fail later. Of all those who fail
the first year, 13.8 per cent escape any later failures. Of all the
pupils included in this table 15.8 per cent have 7 or more failures,
while of those failing in the first year 27 per cent later have 7 or
more failures. For the number included in this table 30.4 per cent have
no failures assigned to them.
PERCENTAGE OF FIRST YEAR FAILING GROUPS, WHO LATER HAVE NO FAILURES
No. of F's. in First Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+
Per Cent of Groups Having
No Failures Later 18.4 13.7 7.2 9.4 10.5 5.0 12.9
About the same percentage of the boys and of the girls (near 60 per
cent) is represented in Table VII. The girls have an advantage over the
boys of about 8 per cent for those belonging to the group with no
failures, and of about 1 per cent for the group with seven or more
failures.
No unconditional conclusion seems justified by this table. In the first
year's record of failures there are good grounds for the promise of
later performance. We may safely say that those who do not fail the
first year are much less likely to fail later, and that if they do fail
later, they have less accumulation of failures. Yet some of this group
have many failures after the first year, and others who have several
failures the first year have none subsequently. Generally, however, the
later accumulations are in almost direct ratio to the earlier record,
and the later non-failures are in inverse ratio to the debits of the
first year.
5. THE PROGNOSIS OF FAILURES BY THE SUBJECT SELECTION
From the distribution of failures by school subjects as presented in
Chapter II, this will seem to be the easiest and almost the surest of
all the factors thus far considered to employ for a prognosis of
failure. For of all pupils taking Latin we may confidently expect an
average of a little less than one pupil in every five to fail each
semester. For the entire number taking mathematics, the expectation of
failure is an average of about one in six for each semester. German
comes next, and for each semester it claims for failure on the average
nearly one pupil in every seven taking it. Similarly French claims for
failure one in every nine; history, one in every ten; English and
business subjects, less than one in every twelve. It will be noted that
the average on a semester basis is employed in this part of the
computation. Consequently, it is not the same as saying that such a
percentage of pupils fail at some time, in the subject. The pupil who
fails four times in first year mathematics is intentionally regarded
here as representing four failures. Likewise, the pupil who completes
four years of Latin without failure represents eight successes for the
subject in calculating these percentages. Every recorded failure for
each pupil is thus accounted for.
It was also noted in Chapter II that the percentages of the total
failures run higher in mathematics, Latin, history, and science, for
the graduates than for the non-graduates. This fact is not due to the
greater number of failures of graduates in the earlier semesters, when
most of the non-graduate failures occur, but to the increase of
failures for the graduates in the later years, as is disclosed in
Tables II and IV. Accordingly, we may say that those two subjects which
are most productive of school failures are increasingly fruitful of
such results in the upper years. This does not seem to be the usual or
accepted conviction. Certain of the school principals have expressed
the assurance that it would be found otherwise. Such deception is
easily explainable, for the number of failures show a marked reduction,
and the rise of percentages is consequently easily overlooked. It is
quite possible, too, that in some individual schools there is not such
a rise of the percentages of failure for the graduates in any of the
school subjects. In a single one of the eight schools reported here
neither Latin nor mathematics showed a higher percentage of failure for
the graduate pupils over the non-graduates. In the other seven schools
the graduates had the higher percentage in one or both of these
subjects.
6. THE TIME PERIOD AND THE NUMBER OF FAILURES
The statement that the number of failures will be greater for the
failing pupils who remain in school the longer time may seem rather
commonplace. But it will not seem trite to state that the percentage
of the total failures on the total subject enrollments increases by
school semesters up to the seventh; that the percentage of possible
failures for all graduating pupils increases likewise; or that the
failures per pupil in each single semester tend to increase as the time
period extends to the later semesters. Yet radical as these statements
may sound, they are actually substantiated by the facts to be
presented.
PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL FAILURES ON THE TOTAL SUBJECT ENROLLMENT,
BY SEMESTERS
Semester 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Per Cent 11.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 14.5 15.3 12.1 9.9 10.9 6.2
The 808 pupils who received no marks, and many of whom dropped out
early in the first semester, are not included in the subject enrollment
for the above percentages. Otherwise the enrollments taken are for the
beginning of each semester and inclusive of all the pupils. These
percentages rise from 11.5 in the first semester to 15.3 in the sixth
semester. Then the percentages drop off, doubtless due to the
increasing effect by this time of the non-failing graduates on the
total enrollment. The graduates alone are next considered in this
respect.
PERCENTAGES OF THE TOTAL FAILURES FOR THE GRADUATES ON THE TOTAL
SUBJECT ENROLLMENT FOR GRADUATES, BY SEMESTERS
Semester 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Per Cent 5.9 6.6 7.8 9.1 9.2 10.5 9.1 7.3 8.8 5.2
These percentages are based on the total possibility of failure, and
reach their highest point in the sixth semester, where the percentage
of failure is nearly twice that for the first semester. These same
facts may be effectively presented also by the percentages of such
failures for the graduates on the total subject enrollment for only the
failing graduates in each semester.
PERCENTAGES OF THE TOTAL FAILURES FOR THE GRADUATES ON THE TOTAL
SUBJECT ENROLLMENT FOR FAILING GRADUATES, BY SEMESTERS
Semester 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Per Cent 31.4 31.2 31.8 32.7 32.3 36.6 37.5 37.4 38.0 36.0
The percentages here are limited to the total possibilities of failure
for those graduates who do fail in each semester. They reach the
highest point in the ninth semester, with a gradual increase from the
first. The high point is reached later in this series than in the one
immediately preceding, because while the percentage of pupils failing
decreases in the final semesters (p. 14), there is an increase in the
number of failures per failing pupil (Table IV).
This increase of percentages by semesters for the graduates on the
total possibility of failure, as just noted, is due to an actual
increase in the number of failures for the later semesters. By the
distribution of failures in Table II more than 56 per cent of the
failures are found after the completion of the second year, in spite of
the fact that about 10 per cent of the pupils who graduate do so in
three or three and a half years. The failures of the graduates are
simply the more numerous after the first two years in school. That this
situation is no accident due to the superior weight of any single
school in the composite group, is readily disclosed by turning to the
units which form the composite. For these schools the percentages of
the graduates' failures that are found after the second year range from
40 per cent to 66 per cent. In only three of the schools are such
percentages under 50 per cent, while in three others they are above 60
per cent.
Further confirmation of how the increase of failures accompanies the
pupils who stay longer in school is offered in the facts of Table IV.
Here are indicated the number of pupils who before graduating fail 1,
2, 3, etc., times, in semesters 1, 2, 3, etc., up to 10. Of all the
occurrences of only one failure per pupil in a semester, 50 per cent
are distributed after the fourth semester. In this same period (after
the fourth semester) are found 53.2 per cent of those with two failures
in a semester; 67.6 per cent of those with three failures in a
semester; 71.6 per cent of those having four; 78.6 per cent of those
having five; and all of those having six failures in a single semester.
One could almost say that the longer they stay the more they fail.
The statements presented herein regarding the relative increase of
failures for at least the first three years in school are likely to
arouse some surprise among that portion of the people in the
profession, with whom the converse of this situation has been quite
generally accepted as true. Such an impression has indeed not seemed
unwarranted according to some reports, but the responsibility for it
must be due in part to the manner of presenting the data, so that at
times it actually serves to misstate or to conceal certain important
features of the situation. Since the dropping out is heaviest in the
early semesters, and since the school undertakes the expense of
providing for all who enter, it does not seem to be a correct
presentation of the facts to compute the percentage of failure on only
the pupils who finish the whole semester. Such a practice tends to
assign an undue percentage of failures to the earlier semesters, one
that is considerably too high in comparison with that of the later
semesters where the dropping out becomes relatively light. It is not
sufficient to report merely what part of our final product is
imperfect, instead of reporting, as do most institutions outside of the
educational field, what part of all that is taken in becomes waste
product. This situation is sufficiently grievous to demand further
comment.
In his study of the New Jersey high schools, Bliss states [28] that one
of the striking facts found is the "steady decrease of failure from the
freshman to the senior year." If we bear in mind that Bliss used only
the promotion sheets for his data, and took no account of the drop-outs
preceding promotion, and if we then estimate that an average of 10 per
cent may drop out before the end of the first semester (the percentage
is 13.2 for our eight schools), then the percentages of failure
recorded for the first year will be reduced by one-eleventh of their
own respective amounts for each school reported by Bliss, as we
translate the percentages to the total enrollment basis. As a
consequence of such a procedure, Bliss' percentages, as reported for
the second year, will be as high as or higher than those for the first
year in six of the ten schools concerned, and nearly equal in two more
of the schools. It is also evident that his percentages of failure as
reported for the junior and senior years are not very different from
each other in six of the ten schools, although there is no inclusion of
the drop-outs in the percentages stated. The only pronounced or actual
decrease in the percentages of failures as Bliss reports them, occurs
between the sophomore and junior years, and it is doubtless a
significant fact that this decided drop appears at the time and place
where the opportunity for elective subjects is first offered in many
schools. Yet apparently it has not seemed worth while to most persons
who report the facts of failure to compute separately from the other
subjects the percentages for the 3- and 4-year required subjects.
A rather small decline is shown in the percentages of failure for the
successive semesters, as quoted below for 2,481 high school pupils of
Paterson[29] (the average of two semesters), although these percentages
are based upon the number of pupils examined at the completion of the
semester. It may further be noted that these percentages do not follow
the same pupils by semesters, but state the facts for successive
classes of pupils. The same criticisms may be offered for the
percentages as quoted from Wood[30] for 435 pupils.
PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FAILING, BY SEMESTERS
SEMESTERS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Paterson 17.8 18.4 16.7 15.0 15.6 11.6 9.4 7.4
Wood 24.5 14.5 29.5 30.0 31.0 7.9 16.2 ..
OBrien (p. 41) 11.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 14.5 15.3 12.1 9.9
The above series of percentages tend to agree at least in showing
little or no decline in the percentages of failure for the first five
or six semesters in school.
Another tendency to conceal important features in relation to the facts
of school failures may be found in the grouping together of
non-continuous and continuous subjects, the latter of which are
generally required. F.W. Johnson found in the University of Chicago
High School[31] that the percentage of failures by successive years
indicated little or no decrease for mathematics and for English (which
were 3- and 4-year subjects respectively). The figures were based on
the records for a period of two years. In regard to St. Paul, it was
possible to compute similar information from the data which were
available.[32] The percentages of failure are presented separately in
each case for Latin, German, and French, not more than two years of
which are required in the schools referred to above. A contrast is thus
presented that is both interesting and suggestive.
PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FAILING, BY YEARS. (Johnson, F.W.)
YEARS
1 2 3 4
English 18.1 9.5 18.4 14.4
Math 12.9 12.9 13.6 5.6
Latin 14.1 9.0 2.9 ..
German 12.4 7.4 .. ..
French 14.3 9.6 3.1 ..
PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FAILING, BY SEMESTERS. (St. Paul)
SEMESTERS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
English and Math 17.8 18.0 16.3 16.9 8.1 14.0 .. ..
Latin, German, French 17.6 17.5 15.1 7.6 3.0 .. .. ..
Apparently the full story has by no means been told when we simply say
that there is a general decline in the percentages of failure by years
or semesters. First, the failures of the drop-outs should be included,
so far as it is at all feasible; second, the percentage should be based
on the total enrollment in the subject, not on the final product, if we
wish to disclose the real situation; third, the continuous or required
subjects should be distinguished in order to give a full statement of
the facts. On page 41 are presented the percentages of failure for the
1,125 failing graduates alone, as found in this study, the greater
portion of whose work, as it actually happened, consisted of 3- and
4-year subjects continuous from the time of entrance, and for whom the
percentages of failure increase to the ninth semester.
7. SIMILARITY OF FACTS FOR BOYS AND GIRLS
Nowhere is there any definite indication that any of these factors of
prognosis operates more distinctly or more pronouncedly on either boys
or girls. Some variations do occur, but differences between the sexes
in personal attitudes, social interests, or conventional standards may
account for slight differences such as have been already noted. To
simplify the statement of facts, no comparison of facts for boys and
girls has, in general, been attempted where there was only similarity
to be shown.
A SUMMARY OF CHAPTER III
The influence of non-attendance as a factor in school failure is partly
provided for here, but no statistical data were secured.
The percentage of physical and mental defects are doubtless
comparatively small for high school pupils except in the case of
vision.
The facts regarding size of classes were unobtainable.
The pupils are distributed by their ages of entrance from 12 to 20,
with the mode of the distribution at 15. The younger entering pupils
are distinctly more successful in escaping failure. They are also
strikingly more successful in their ability to graduate.
The older pupils who fail have a higher percentage of failure on the
subjects taken.
The first year's record has real prognostic value for pupils persisting
more than three semesters. But 57 per cent of those leaving earlier
have no failures. This includes nearly 60 per cent of all the
non-failing pupils, but less than 32 per cent of the failing ones have
gone that early.
Prediction of failure by subjects is relatively easy and sure, and the
later years seem more productive of this result.
The percentage of failure on the total possibility of failure increases
with the time period up to the seventh semester. The same facts are
true for the graduates when considered alone. Fifty-six per cent of the
failures for the graduates occur after the second year. The longer stay
in school actually begets an increase of failures. The boys and girls
are similarly affected by these factors of prognosis.
REFERENCES:
14. Keyes, C.H. _Progress Through the Grades_, pp. 23, 62.
15. Terman, L.M. _The Measurement of Intelligence_, p. 68.
16. Bronner, A.E. _Psychology of Special Abilities and Disabilities_.
17. Ayres, L.P. "The Effect of Physical Defects on School Progress,"
_Psychological Clinic_, 3:71.
18. Gulick, L.H., Ayres, L.P. _Medical Inspection in the Schools_, p.
194.
19. _Standards of The North Central Association of Colleges and
Secondary Schools_.
20. Hall-Quest, A.L., in Johnson's _Modern High School_, p. 270.
21. King, I. _The High School Age_, p. 195.
22. VanDenburg, J.K. _The Elimination of Pupils from Public Secondary
Schools_, p. 113.
23. Slattery, M. _The Girl in Her Teens_, p. 20.
24. Wooley, H.T. "Facts About the Working Children of Cincinnati,"
_Elementary School Teacher_, 14:135.
25. _Report of Commission on Industrial and Technical Education_
(Mass.), 1906, p. 92.
26. Barrows, Alice P. _Report of Vocational Guidance Survey_ (New York
City), Public Education Association, New York City, Bull. No. 9, 1912.
27. Holley, C.E. _The Relationship Between Persistence in School and
Home Conditions_, Fifteenth Yearbook, Pt. II, p. 98.
28. Bliss, D.C. "High School Failures," _Educational Administration and
Supervision_, Vol. III.
29. _Annual Report of Board of Education, Paterson_, 1915.
30. Wood, J.W. "A Study of Failures," _School and Society_, I, 679.
31. Johnson, F.W. "A Study of High School Grades," _School Review_,
19-13.
32. Strayer, G.D., Coffman, L.D., Prosser, C.A. _Report of a Survey of
the School System of St. Paul_, 1917.
CHAPTER IV
HOW MUCH IS THE GRADUATION OR THE PERSISTENCE IN SCHOOL CONDITIONED BY
THE OCCURRENCE OR THE NUMBER OF FAILURES?
1. COMPARISON OF THE FAILING AND THE NON-FAILING GROUPS IN REFERENCE TO
GRADUATION AND PERSISTENCE
It has been noted in section 1 of Chapter II that 58.1 per cent of all
the graduates have school failures. Here we mean to carry the analysis
and comparison in reference to graduation and failure somewhat further.
To this end the following distribution is significant.
DISTRIBUTION OF PUPILS IN REFERENCE TO FAILURE AND GRADUATION
The Non-failing The Failing
Pupils--Graduating Pupils--Graduating
Totals 2568 811 (31.5%) 3573 1125 (31.5%)
Boys 1001 307 (30.6%) 1645 489 (29.7%)
Girls 1567 504 (32.1%) 1928 639 (33.0%)
We have presented here the numbers that graduate without failures,
together with the total group to which they belong, and the same for
the graduates who have failed. By a mere process of subtraction we may
determine the number of non-graduates, as well as the number of these
that fail, and then compute the percentage of the non-graduates who
fail. Thus we get 58.2 per cent (boys--62.5, girls--54.9) as the
percentage of the non-graduates failing. It is apparent at once that
this is almost identical with the percentage of failure for the ones
who graduate (Chapter II), but for the non-graduates the boys and girls
are a little further apart. It may be remarked in this connection that
no effort was made to include any of the 808 non-credited pupils among
the ones who fail. The inclusion of 60 per cent of this number as
potentially failing pupils, as was done in Chapter II, will raise the
above percentage of failing non-graduates by 11.5 per cent.
The above distribution of pupils enables us to determine what
percentage of the failing and of the non-failing groups graduate. These
percentages are identical--31.5 per cent in each case. The boys and
girls are further apart in the former group (boys--29.7, girls--33)
than in the latter group (boys--30.6, girls--32.1). It follows, then,
that the percentage who graduate of all the original entrants is 31.5
per cent. This fact varies by schools from 20.8 per cent to 45.4 per
cent. And such percentage is in each case exclusive of the pupils who
join the class by transfers from other schools or classes. Our
particular interest is not in how many pupils the school graduates in
any year, but rather in how many of the entering pupils in any one year
stay to graduate.
The greater persistence of the failing non-graduates, or the greater
failing for the more persistent non-graduates, has already been given
some attention in both Chapters II and III. In the following
distribution the non-graduates alone are considered. The number
persisting in school to each succeeding semester is first stated, and
then the percentage of that number which is composed of the non-failing
pupils is given.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE NON-GRADUATES ACCORDING TO THE NUMBERS PERSISTING
TO EACH SUCCESSIVE SEMESTER
BY END OF SEMESTERS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total (4205) 2787 1957 1572 999 761 390 234 60 23 4
Per Cent of
Non-failing (41.8) 24.5 20.0 16.4 13.9 12.7 7.2 3.8 1.6 0 ..
Only 20 per cent of the non-graduates who remain to the end of the
first year (second semester) do not fail. Although the failing
non-graduates outnumber the non-failing ones when all the pupils who
finally drop out are considered, their percentage of the majority
increases rapidly for each successive semester continued in school.
That the non-failing non-graduates are in general not the ones who
persist long in school is shown by these percentages.
2. THE NUMBER OF FAILURES AND THE YEARS TO GRADUATE
The following table shows how the number of failures are related to the
time period required for graduation. The distribution in Table VIII
shows a range from 1 to 25 failures per pupil, and a time period for
graduation ranging from 3 to 6 years. It is evident from this
distribution that the increase of time period for graduating is not
commensurate with the number of failures for the individual. By far the
largest number graduate in four years in spite of their numerous
failures. Nearly 70 per cent of the failing graduates require four
years or less for graduation. The number who finish in three years is
greater than the number who require either five and one-half or six
years. The median number of failures per pupil is 4. The pupils with
fewer than 4 failures who take more than four years to graduate are not
representative of any particular school in this composite, nor are
those having 10 or more failures who take less than 5 years to
graduate.
TABLE VIII
DISTRIBUTION OF PUPILS GRADUATING, ACCORDING TO THE TOTAL FAILURES EACH
AND THE TIME TAKEN TO GRADUATE
NO. OF YEARS TO GRADUATE
FAILURES 3 3½ 4 4½ 5 5½ 6 TOTALS
0 Boys 20 23 244 12 8 .. .. 307
Girls 54 26 380 30 14 .. .. 504
1 Boys 2 10 59 7 2 .. .. 80
Girls 5 8 83 13 5 .. .. 114
2 Boys 2 2 64 7 7 0 .. 82
Girls 2 3 88 11 8 1 .. 113
3 Boys 0 6 27 5 4 .. .. 42
Girls 1 1 53 6 3 .. .. 64
4 Boys 1 1 44 0 8 1 .. 55
Girls 4 6 57 8 4 1 .. 80
5 Boys 0 1 41 2 3 .. .. 47
Girls 1 2 26 7 5 .. .. 41
6 Boys .. 0 29 6 3 .. 0 38
Girls .. 1 29 3 8 .. 1 42
7 Boys .. 2 12 7 7 .. .. 28
Girls .. 1 13 4 5 .. .. 23
8 Boys .. 0 17 7 8 .. 1 33
Girls .. 1 16 9 7 .. 0 33
9 Boys .. 0 6 5 5 0 0 16
Girls .. 1 7 8 8 1 1 26
10 Boys .. 1 6 4 6 0 .. 17
Girls .. 1 14 5 2 1 .. 23
11-15 Boys .. 0 9 18 11 0 1 39
Girls .. 1 11 25 14 1 4 56
16-20 Boys .. .. 2 2 4 1 1 10
Girls .. .. 2 5 2 2 0 11
21-25 Boys .. .. 1 0 0 1 0 2
Girls .. .. 0 1 4 3 1 9
Total Boys 25 46 561 82 76 3 3 796
Girls 67 52 780 135 89 10 7 1140
In reading Table VIII, we find that 20 boys and 54 girls who have no
failures graduate in three years; 2 boys and 5 girls fail once and
graduate in 3 years; 10 boys and 8 girls have one failure and graduate
in 3½ years, and so on. The median period is 4 years for those with no
failures and it remains at 4 for all who have fewer than 9 failures;
but the median time period is not above 5 years for the highest number
of failures.
3. THE NUMBER OF FAILURES AND THE SEMESTER OF DROPPING OUT FOR THE
NON-GRADUATES
The pages preceding this point have given evidence that the failing
pupils are not mainly the ones who drop out early. But we may still ask
whether the number of failures per individual tends to determine how
early he will be eliminated? This question calls for the facts of the
next table. In this table the semesters of dropping out are indicated
at the top. The failures range as high as 25 per pupil, and it is
evident that not all pupils have left school until the eleventh
semester. The distribution includes the 1156 boys and the 1292 girls
who failed and did not graduate; also the 694 boys and the 1063 girls
who dropped out without failing. The wide distribution of these
non-graduates both relative to the number of failures and to the time
of dropping out, is forcibly brought to our attention by the table
which follows.
TABLE IX
DISTRIBUTION OF THE NON-GRADUATES, ACCORDING TO THE TOTAL FAILURES
EACH AND THE TIME OF DROPPING OUT
NO. OF SEMESTER OF DROPPING OUT
FAILURES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TOTAL
0 B. 430 134 40 41 15 24 7 3 0 .. .. 694
G. 643 163 89 78 27 45 12 5 1 .. .. 1063
1757
1 B. 35 53 25 33 14 9 1 1 .. .. .. 171
G. 46 65 25 34 12 12 4 3 .. .. .. 201
372
2 B. 52 58 18 30 8 17 5 6 .. .. .. 194
G. 49 79 31 36 12 17 3 3 .. .. .. 230
424
3 B. 43 41 22 28 9 10 5 1 0 .. .. 159
G. 54 52 19 34 18 17 0 6 1 .. .. 201
360
4 B. 27 31 13 32 7 11 9 2 .. .. .. 132
G. 34 43 23 29 11 16 5 8 .. .. .. 169
301
5 B. 3 13 14 30 11 16 11 4 .. .. .. 102
G. 2 14 18 24 5 13 3 5 .. .. .. 84
186
6 B. .. 27 8 24 11 16 11 6 0 0 .. 103
G. .. 17 14 25 10 11 3 9 2 1 .. 92
195
7 B. .. 8 7 7 6 16 5 3 0 1 .. 53
G. .. 9 3 15 8 7 5 5 0 0 .. 52
105
8 B. .. 8 3 14 6 11 6 5 1 0 .. 54
G. .. 10 5 15 7 10 6 6 1 1 .. 61
115
9 B. .. 1 1 7 5 8 2 7 3 1 .. 35
G. .. 0 2 7 8 9 2 4 1 0 .. 33
68
10 B. .. 2 2 10 2 7 6 10 0 .. .. 39
G. .. 2 1 6 5 9 4 4 0 .. .. 31
70
11-15 B. .. .. 1 8 7 27 14 22 5 2 0 86
G. .. .. 1 5 12 22 20 23 9 6 2 100
186
16-20 B. .. .. .. 1 0 8 3 6 3 3 0 24
G. .. .. .. 0 2 3 3 12 6 2 2 30
54
21-25 B. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2 1 1 .. 4
G. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 3 3 1 .. 8
12
TOTAL B. 590 376 154 263 101 180 85 78 13 8 0 1850
G. 828 454 231 308 137 191 71 96 24 11 4 2355
4205
Table IX reads in a manner similar to Table VIII: 430 boys and 643
girls, having failures, drop out in the first semester; 35 boys and 46
girls drop out in the first semester with a single failure; 3 boys and
2 girls drop out in the first semester with five failures each.
For a small portion of these drop-outs the number of failures is
undoubtedly the prime or immediate factor in securing their
elimination. It seems probable that such is the situation for most of
those pupils who drop out after 50 per cent or more of their school
work has resulted in failures. Yet a few of these pupils manage to
continue for an extended time in school, as the following distribution
shows.
DROP-OUTS FAILING IN 50 PER CENT OR MORE OF THEIR TOTAL WORK,
AND THEIR DISTRIBUTION BY SEMESTERS OF DROPPING OUT
SEMESTERS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
221 B. 81 69 17 24 7 15 4 2 1 1
264 G. 98 68 20 35 14 10 5 8 5 1
% of Total 36.9 28.2 7.6 12.2 4.3 5.2 1.9 2.0 1.2 .4
This grouping includes 485 pupils, or 11.5 per cent of the total number
of 4,205 drop-outs. But whatever the part may be that is played by
failing it is evident that it does not operate to cause their early
loss to the school in nearly all of these instances. It may be noted
here that it is difficult to find any justification for allowing or
forcing these pupils to endure two, three, or four years of a kind of
training for which they have shown themselves obviously unfitted. To be
sure, they have satisfied a part of these failures by repetitions or
otherwise, but only to go on adding more failures. A device of
'superannuation' is employed in certain schools by which a pupil who
has failed in half of his work for two semesters, and is sixteen years
of age, is supposed to be dropped automatically from the school. This
device seems designed to evade a difficulty in the absence of any real
solution for it, and harmonizes with the school aims that are
prescribed in terms of subject matter rather than in terms of the
pupils' needs. From the standpoint of the individual pupil his peculiar
qualities are not likely to be fashioned to the highest degree of
usefulness by this procedure. It simply serves notice that the pupil
must make the adjustment needed, as the school cannot or will not.
Notwithstanding the testimony furnished by the accumulation of failures
shown in Table IX, there are grounds for believing that for the major
portion of all the non-graduates the number of failures is not a prime
nor perhaps a highly important cause of their dropping out of school.
This conviction seems to be substantiated by the statement of
percentages below.
THE PERCENTAGE OF NON-GRADUATES WHO DROP OUT WITH
0 1 or 0 2 or fewer 3 or fewer 4 or fewer 5 or fewer
Failures Failures Failures Failures Failures Failures
41.8 50.6 60.7 69.2 76.4 80.8
The fact that nearly 81 per cent of the non-graduates have only 5
failures or less, taken in comparison with the fact that approximately
one fourth of the failing graduates have 8 or more failures, argues
that the number of failures alone can hardly be considered one of the
larger factors in causing the dropping out. In a report concerning the
working children of Cincinnati, H.T. Wooley remarks[33] that
"two-thirds of our children leaving the public schools are the
failures." This seems to suppose failing a large cause of the dropping
out. But this investigation of failure indicates that the percentage of
failure for those leaving is no higher than for the ones who do not
leave. A similar illustration is credited to O.W. Caldwell[34], who
makes reference to the large percentage of the failing pupils who leave
high school, without taking any recognition of the equally large
percentage of the failing pupils who continue in the high school.
There is in no sense any intention here to condone the large number of
failures simply because it is pointed out that they do not operate
chiefly to cause elimination from school. The above facts may lead to
some such conviction as that expressed by Wooley,[33] after giving
especial attention to those who had left school, that "the real force
that is sending a majority of these children out into the industrial
field is their own desire to go to work, and behind this desire is
frequently the dissatisfaction with school." A somewhat similar
conviction seems to be shared by King,[35] in saying that "the pupil
who yields unwillingly to the narrow round of school tasks ... will
grasp at almost any pretext to quit school." W.F. Book tabulated the
reasons why pupils leave high school,[36] as given by 1,051 pupils. He
found that discouragement, loss of interest, and disappointment affect
more pupils than all the other causes combined. Likewise Bronner
notes[37] that the 'irrational' sameness of school procedure for all
pupils often leads to "serious loss of interest in school work,
discouragement, truancy, and disciplinary problems." Still it may be
that the worst consequences of multiplied failures are not to those
dropping out. W.D. Lewis observes[38] that the failing pupil "speedily
comes to accept himself as a failure," and that "the disaster to many
who stay in the schools is greater than to those who are shoved out."
To the same point Hanus tells[39] us that "during the school period
aversion and evasion are more frequently cultivated than power and
skill, through the forced pursuit of uninteresting subjects." A pupil
who acquires the habit of failing and the attitude of accepting it as a
necessary evil may soon give up trying to win and become satisfied to
accept himself as less gifted, or even to accept life in general as
necessarily a matter of repeated failures. In a similar connection,
James E. Russell says,[40] "the boy who becomes accustomed to second
place soon fails to think at his best." Such psychological results in
regard to habits and attitude accruing from repeated failures are both
certain and insidious. And an education which purports to be for all
and to offer the highest training to each must abandon the inculcation
of attitudes of mind so detrimental to the individual and to the very
society which educates him.
4. THE PERCENTAGES THAT THE NON-GRADUATE GROUPS FORM OF THE PUPILS WHO
HAVE EACH SUCCESSIVELY HIGHER NUMBER OF FAILURES
By merely adding the columns of totals for Tables VIII and IX, we are
able to obtain the full number of pupils who have each number of
failures from 1 to 25. We may readily secure the percentages for the
non-graduates in each of these groups by referring again to the numbers
in the totals column of Table IX. The following series of percentages
are thus obtained.
THE PERCENTAGE FORMED BY NON-GRADUATES WITH 0, 1, 2, 3, ETC., FAILURES
ON THE TOTAL NUMBER WHO HAVE 0, 1, 2, 3, ETC., FAILURES
No. of Failures 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Per Cent 68.4 65.7 68.5 77.2 69.0 68.0 70.6 67.3 63.5
No. of Failures 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
Per Cent 61.8 63.6 69.0 61.2 66.0 65.3 70.0 61.5 69.4
That these percentages would be higher for the non-graduates than for
the graduates (that is, above 50 per cent) would certainly be expected
by a glance at their higher numbers in every group of their
distribution. But it would hardly be expected by most of us that the
percentages would show no general tendency to rise as the failures per
pupil increase in number, yet such is the truth as found here. The
reverse of these facts was found by Aaron I. Dotey, with a smaller
group of high school pupils[41] (1,397), studied in one of the New York
City high schools. Still he also asserts that failure in studies is not
a cause of elimination to the extent that it is generally supposed to
be. We may gain some advantage for judging the general tendency of the
extended and varied series of percentages above, by computing them in
groups of larger size, thus yielding a briefer series, as follows:
(A CONDENSED FORM OF THE PRECEDING STATEMENT)
No. of Failures 0 1 to 4 5 to 8 9 to 12 13 to 16 17 to 25
Per Cent 68.4 67.6 67.3 63.9 65.7 69.4
Not only do the percentages of non-graduates not increase relatively as
the numbers of failure go higher, but there is a slight general decline
in these percentages until we reach '17 or more' failures per pupil.
Then for '17 to 25' failures per pupil there is an increase of only 1
per cent over that for failures. The number of failures does not seem
directly to condition the pupil's ability to graduate or to continue to
in school.
5. TIME EXTENSION FOR THE FAILING GRADUATES
We shall now inquire further what extension of time for graduating
characterizes the failing graduates in comparison with the non-failing
ones.
The distribution according to the period for graduation for the 1,936
pupils who graduate was shown by the summary lines of Table VIII. In
the same table the non-failing graduates are included (but distinct).
No pupil graduates in less than three years and none takes longer than
six years; 9.8 per cent of the number finish in less than 4 years; 19.7
per cent take more than 4 years. The small number that finish earlier
than four years may be due in part to the single annual graduation in
several of the schools. Some of the schools admitting two classes each
year graduated only one, and the records made it plain that some pupils
had a half year more credit than was needed for graduating.
Considering, however, that about 42 per cent of the graduates had no
failures, they should have been able to speed up more on the time
period of getting through. They were doubtless not unable to do that.
But some principals hold the conviction that four years will result in
a rounding out of the pupil more than commensurate with the extended
time. More than 35 per cent of those who did finish in less than four
years are graduates who had failed from 1 to 11 times. In the
conventional period of four years 77 per cent of the non-failing and 64
per cent of the failing graduates complete their work and graduate (see
p. 59, for the means employed). The percentages of non-failing
graduates for each time period are given below.
THE PERCENTAGES OF NON-FAILING GRADUATES FOR EACH PERIOD
Time Period in Years 3 ½ 4 ½ 5 ½ 6
Per Cent of Non-Failing 80.4 50.0 46.5 19.3 13.3 .. ..
This continuous decline of percentages representing the non-failing
graduates shows that they have an evident advantage in regard to the
time period for graduating. Their percentages are high for the shorter
time periods and low for the longer periods. But by reference to Table
VIII we quickly find that the slight extension of the time period for
the failing graduates is not at all commensurate with the number of
failures which they have. The failures are provided for in various
ways, as Chapter V will explain. No striking differences are observed
for the boys and girls in any division of this chapter.
A SUMMARY OF CHAPTER IV
The percentages of graduates and of non-graduates that fail are almost
identical.
The percentages of the failing pupils who graduate and of the
non-failing pupils who graduate are identical (31.5 per cent); hence,
graduation is not perceptibly conditioned by the occurrence of failure.
The non-failing non-graduates do not persist long in school, as
compared with the failing non-graduates. The short persistence partly
accounts for their avoidance of failure.
As the number of failures per pupil increase for the failing graduates,
the time extension is not commensurate with the number of failures.
For 11.5 per cent of the non-graduates who fail in 50 per cent or more
of their work, failure is probably a chief cause of dropping out.
Failure is probably not a prime cause of dropping out for most of the
non-graduates, as 80 per cent have only 5 failures or fewer.
The worst consequences of failure are perhaps in acquiring the habit of
failing, and in coming to accept one's self as a failure. The number of
drop-outs does not tend to increase as the number of failures per pupil
increases.
The time period for graduating ranges from three to six years, with
approximately 79 per cent of all graduates finishing in four years or
less. The failing graduates take, on the average, a little longer time
than the non-failing, but not an increase that is proportionate to the
number of failures.
The boys and girls present no striking differences in the facts of
Chapter IV.
REFERENCES:
33. Wooley, H.T. "Facts About the Working Children of Cincinnati,"
_Elementary School Teacher_, Vol. XIV, 135.
34. Caldwell, O.W. "Laboratory Method and High School Efficiency,"
_Popular Science Monthly_, 82-243.
35. King, Irving. _The High School Age._
36. Book, W.F. "Why Pupils Fail," _Pedagogical Seminary_, 11:204.
37. Bronner, A.E. _The Psychology of Special Abilities and
Disabilities_, p. 6.
38. Lewis, W.D. _Democracy's High School_, pp. 28, 37.
39. Hanus, P.H. _School Aims and Values._
40. Russell, J.E. "Co-education in High School. Is It a Failure?"
Reprint from _Good Housekeeping_.
41. Dotey, A.I. _An Investigation of Scholarship Records of High School
Pupils_. High School Teachers Association of New York City. Bulletins
1911-14, p. 220.