THE WARFARE OF THE FUTURE

At first sight the proposition may appear startling and indeed absurd;

yet hard facts, I venture to believe, will enforce the conviction on

unprejudiced minds that the warfare of the present when contrasted with

the warfare of the past is dilatory, ineffective, and inconclusive.

Present, or contemporary warfare may be taken to date from the general

adoption of rifled firearms; the warfare of the past may fairly be

limited for purposes of comparison or contrast, to the smooth-bore era;

indeed, for those purposes there is no need to go outside the present

century. Roughly speaking the first five and a half decades of the

century were smooth-bore decades; the three and a half later decades

have been rifled decades, of which about two and a half decades

constitute the breechloading period. Considering the extraordinary

advances since the end of the smooth-bore era in everything tending to

promote celerity and decisiveness in the result of campaigns--the

revolution in swiftness of shooting and length of range of firearms,

the development in the science of gunnery, the increased devotion to

military study, the vast additions to the military strength of the

nations, looking to the facilities for rapid conveyance of troops and

transportation of supplies afforded by railways and steam

water-carriage, to the intensified artillery fire that can now be

brought to bear on fortresses, to the manifold advantages afforded by

the electric telegraph, and to the crushing cost of warfare, urging

vigorous exertions toward the speedy decision of campaigns--reviewing,

I say, the thousand and one circumstances encouraging to short, sharp,

and decisive action in contemporary warfare, it is a strange and

bewildering fact that the wars of the smooth-bore era were for the most

part, shorter, sharper, and more decisive. Spite of inferiority of

weapons the battles of that period were bloodier than those of the

present, and it is a mathematically demonstrable proposition that the

heavier the slaughter of combatants the nearer must be the end of a

war. There is no pursuit now after victory won and the vanquished draws

off shaken but not broken; in the smooth-bore era a vigorous pursuit

scattered him to the four winds. When Wellington in the Peninsula

wanted a fortress and being in a hurry could not wait the result of a

formal siege or a starvation blockade, he carried it by storm. No

fortress is ever stormed now, no matter how urgent the need for its

reduction, no matter how obsolete its defences. The Germans in 1871 did

attempt to carry by assault an outwork of Belfort, but failed utterly.

It would almost seem that in the matter of forlorn hopes the Caucasian

is played out.

Assertions are easy, but they go for little unless they can be proved;

some examples, therefore, may be cited in support of the contentions

advanced above. The Prussians are proud and with justice, of what is

known as the "Seven Weeks' War of 1866" although as a matter of fact

the contest with Austria did not last so long, for Prince Frederick

Charles crossed the Bohemian frontier on the 23rd of June and the

armistice which ended hostilities was signed at Nikolsburg on the 26th

of July. The Prussian armies were stronger than their opponents by more

than one-fourth and they were armed with the needle-gun against the

Austrian muzzle-loading rifle. When the armistice was signed the

Prussians lay on the Marchfeld within dim sight of the

Stephanien-Thurm, it is true; but with the strong and strongly armed

and held lines of Florisdorf, the Danube, and the army of the Archduke

Albrecht between them and the Austrian capital. On the 9th of October

1806 Napoleon crossed the Saale. On the 14th at Jena he smashed

Hohenlohe's Prussian army, the contending hosts being about equal

strength; on the same day Davoust at Auerstadt with 27,000 men routed

Brunswick's command over 50,000 strong. On the 25th of October Napoleon

entered Berlin, the war virtually over and all Prussia at his feet with

the exception of a few fortresses, the last of which fell on the 8th of

November. Which was the swifter, the more brilliant, and the more

decisive--the campaign of 1866, or the campaign of 1806?

The Franco-German war is generally regarded as an exceptionally

effective performance on the part of the Germans. The first German

force entered France on the 4th of August 1870. Paris was invested on

the 21st of September, the German armies having fought four great

battles and several serious actions between the frontier and the French

capital. An armistice, which was not conclusive since it allowed the

siege of Belfort to proceed and Bourbaki's army to be free to attempt

raising it, was signed at Versailles on the 28th of January 1871, but

the actual conclusion of hostilities dates from the 16th of February,

the day on which Belfort surrendered. The Franco-German war, therefore,

lasted six and a half months. The Germans were in full preparedness

except that their rifle was inferior to the French _chassepot_; they

were in overwhelmingly superior numerical strength in every encounter

save two with French regular troops, and they had on their banners the

prestige of Sadowa. Their adversaries were utterly unready for a great

struggle; the French army was in a wretched state in every sense of the

word; indeed, after Sedan there remained hardly any regulars able to

take the field. In August 1805 Napoleon's Grande Armée was at Boulogne

looking across to the British shores. Those inaccessible, he promptly

altered his plans and went against Austria. Mack with 84,000 Austrian

soldiers was at Ulm, waiting for the expected Russian army of

co-operation and meantime covering the valley of the Danube. Napoleon

crossed the Rhine on the 26th of September. Just as in 1870 the Germans

on the plain of Mars-la-Tour thrust themselves between Bazaine and the

rest of France, so Napoleon turned Mack and from Aalen to the Tyrol

stood between him and Austria. Mack capitulated Ulm and his army on the

19th of October and Napoleon was in Vienna on the 13th of November.

Although he possessed the Austrian capital, he was not, however, master

of the Austrian empire. The latter result did not fall to him until the

2nd of December, when under "the sun of Austerlitz" he with 73,000 men

defeated the Austro-Russian army 85,000 strong, inflicting on it a loss

of 30,000 men at the cost of 12,000 of his own soldiers _hors de

combat_. It took the Germans in 1870 a month and a half to get from the

frontier to _outside_ Paris; just in the same time, although certainly

not with so severe fighting by the way but nearly twice as long a

march, Napoleon moved from the Rhine to _inside_ Vienna. From the

active commencement to the cessation of hostilities the Franco-German

war lasted six and a half months; reckoning from the crossing of the

Rhine to the evening of Austerlitz Napoleon subjugated Austria in two

and a quarter months. Perhaps, however, his campaign of 1809 against

Austria furnishes a more exact parallel with the campaign of the

Germans in 1870-71. He assumed command on the 17th of April, having

hurried from Spain. He defeated the Austrians five times in as many

days, at Thann, Abensberg, Landshut, Eckmuhl, and Ratisbon; and he was

in Vienna on the 13th of May. Balked at Aspern and Essling, he gained

his point at Wagram on the 5th of July, and hostilities ceased with the

armistice of Znaim on the 11th after having lasted for a period short

of three months by a week.

The Russians have a reputation for good marching, and certainly

Suvaroff made good time in his long march from Russia to Northern Italy

in 1799; almost as good, indeed, as Bagration, Barclay de Tolly, and

Kutusoff made in falling back before Napoleon when he invaded Russia in

1812. But they have not improved either in marching or in fighting at

all commensurately with the improved appliances. In 1877, after

dawdling two months they crossed the Danube on the 21st to the 27th of

June. Osman Pasha at Plevna gave them pause until the 10th of December,

at which date they were not so far into Bulgaria as they had been five

months previously. After the fall of Plevna the Russian armies would

have gone into winter quarters but for a private quasi-ultimatum

communicated to the Tzar from a high source in England, to the effect

that unpleasant consequences could not be guaranteed against if the war

was not finished in one campaign. Alexander, who was quite an astute

man in his way, was temporarily enraged by this restriction, but

recovering his calmness, realised that nowhere in war books is any

particular time specified for the termination or duration of a

campaign. It appeared that so long as an army keeps the field

uninterruptedly a campaign may continue until the Greek kalends. In

less time than that Gourko and Skobeleff undertook to finish the

business; by the vigour with which they forced their way across the

Balkans in the heart of the bitter winter Sophia, Philippopolis, and

Adrianople fell into Russian hands; and the Russian troops had been

halted some time almost in face of Constantinople when the treaty of

San Stephano was signed on the 3rd of March 1878. It had taken the

Russians of 1877-78 eight weary months to cover the distance between

the Danube and the Marmora. But fifty years earlier a Russian general

had marched from the Danube to the Aegean in three and a half months,

nor was his journey by any means a smooth and bloodless one. Diebitch

crossed the Danube in May 1828 and besieged Silistria from the 17th of

May until the 1st of July. Silistria has undergone three resolute

sieges during the century; it succumbed but once, and then to Diebitch.

Pressing south immediately, he worsted the Turkish Grand Vizier in the

fierce battle of Kuleutscha and then by diverse routes hurried down

into the great Roumelian valley. Adrianople made no resistance and

although his force was attenuated by hardship and disease, when the

Turkish diplomatists procrastinated the audacious and gallant Diebitch

marched his thin regiments forward toward Constantinople. They had

traversed on a wide front half the distance between Adrianople and the

capital when the dilatory Turkish negotiators saw fit to imitate the

coon and come down. Whether they would have done so had they known the

weakness of Diebitch may be questioned; but again it may be questioned

whether, that weakness unknown, he could not have occupied

Constantinople on the swagger. His master was prepared promptly to

reinforce him; Constantinople was perhaps nearer its fall in 1828 than

in 1878, and certainly Diebitch was much smarter than were the Grand

Duke Nicholas, his fossil Nepokoitschitsky, and his pure theorist

Levitsky.

The contrast between the character of our own contemporary military

operations and that of those of the smooth-bore era is very strongly

marked. In 1838-39 Keane marched an Anglo-Indian army from our frontier

at Ferozepore over Candahar to Cabul without experiencing any serious

check, and with the single important incident of taking Ghuzni by storm

on the way. Our positions at and about Cabul were not seriously

molested until late in 1841, when the paralysis of demoralisation

struck our soldiers because of the crass follies of a wrong-headed

civilian chief and the feebleness of a decrepit general. Nott

throughout held Candahar firmly; the Khyber Pass remained open until

faith was broken with the hillmen; Jellalabad held out until the

"Retribution Column" camped under its walls. But for the awful

catastrophe which befell in the passes the hapless brigade which under

the influence of deplorable pusillanimity and gross mismanagement had

evacuated Cabul, no serious military calamity marked our occupation of

Afghanistan and certainly stubborn resistance had not confronted our

arms. From 1878 to 1880 we were in Afghanistan again, this time with

breech-loading far-ranging rifles, copious artillery of the newest

types, and commanders physically and mentally efficient. All those

advantages availed us not one whit. The Afghans took more liberties

with us than they had done forty years previously. They stood up to us

in fair fight over and over again: at Ali Musjid, at the Pewar Kotul,

at Charasiab, on the Takt-i-Shah and the Asmai heights, at Candahar.

They took the dashing offensive at Ahmed Kheyl and at the

Shutur-gurdan; they drove Dunham Massy's cavalry and took British guns;

they reoccupied Cabul in the face of our arms, they besieged Candahar,

they hemmed Roberts within the Sherpoor cantonments and assailed him

there. They destroyed a British brigade at Maiwand and blocked Gough in

the Jugdulluck Pass. Finally our evacuating army had to macadamise its

unmolested route down the passes by bribes to the hillmen, and the

result of the second Afghan war was about as barren as that of the

first.

It was in the year 1886 that, the resolution having been taken to

dethrone Thebau and annex Upper Burmah, Prendergast began his all but

bloodless movement on Mandalay. The Burmans of today have never

adventured a battle, yet after years of desultory bushwhacking the

pacification of Upper Burmah has still to be fully accomplished. On the

10th of April 1852 an Anglo-Indian expedition commanded by General

Godwin landed at Rangoon. During the next fifteen months it did a good

deal of hard fighting, for the Burmans of that period made a stout

resistance. At midsummer of 1853 Lord Dalhousie proclaimed the war

finished, announced the annexation and pacification of Lower Burmah,

and broke up the army. The cost of the war of which the result was this

fine addition to our Indian Empire, was two millions sterling; almost

from the first the province was self-supporting and uninterrupted peace

has reigned within its borders. We did not dally in those primitive

smooth-bore days. Sir Charles Napier took the field against the Scinde

Ameers on the 16th of February 1843. Next day he fought the battle of

Meanee, entered Hyderabad on the 2Oth, and on the 24th of March won the

decisive victory of Dubba which placed Scinde at his mercy, although

not until June did the old "Lion of Meerpore" succumb to Jacob. But

before then Napier was well forward with his admirable measures for the

peaceful administration of the great province he had added to British

India.

The expedition for the rescue of General Gordon was tediously boated up

the Nile, with the result that the "desert column" which Sir Herbert

Stewart led so valiantly across the Bayuda reached Gubat just in time

to be too late, and was itself extricated from imminent disaster by the

masterful promptitude of Sir Redvers Buller. Notwithstanding a general

consensus of professional and expert opinion in favour of the

alternative route from Souakin to Berber, 240 miles long and far from

waterless, the adoption of it was condemned as impossible. In June

1801, away back in the primitive days, an Anglo-Indian brigade 5000

strong ordered from Bombay, reached Kosseir on the Red Sea bound for

the Upper Nile at Kenéh thence to join Abercromby's force operating in

Lower Egypt. The distance from Kosseir to Kenéh is 120 miles across a

barren desert with scanty and unfrequent springs. The march was by

regiments, of which the first quitted Kosseir on the 1st of July. The

record of the desert-march of the 10th Foot is now before me. It left

Kosseir on the 20th of July and reached Kenéh on the 29th, marching at

the rate of twelve miles per day. Its loss on the march was one

drummer. The whole brigade was at Kenéh in the early days of August,

the period between its debarkation and its concentration on the Nile

being about five weeks. The march was effected at the very worst season

of the year. It was half the distance of a march from Souakin to

Berber; the latter march by a force of the same strength could well

have been accomplished in three months. The opposition on the march

could not have been so severe as that which Stewart's desert column

encountered. Nevertheless, as I have said, the Souakin-Berber route was

pronounced impossible by the deciding authority.

The comparative feebleness of contemporary warfare is perhaps

exceptionally manifest in relation to the reduction of fortresses.

During the Franco-German War the frequency of announcements of the fall

of French fortresses used to be the subject of casual jeers. The jeers

were misplaced. The French fortresses, labouring under every

conceivable disadvantage, did not do themselves discredit. All of them

were more or less obsolete. Excluding Metz and Paris, neither fortified

to date, their average age was about a century and a half and few had

been amended since their first construction. They were mostly

garrisoned by inferior troops, often almost entirely by Mobiles. Only

in one instance was there an effective director of the defence. That

they uniformly enclosed towns whose civilian population had to endure

bombardment, was an obvious hindrance to desperate resistance. Yet,

setting aside Bitsch which was never taken, the average duration of the

defence of the seventeen fortresses which made other than nominal

resistance was forty-one days. Excluding Paris and Metz which virtually

were intrenched camps, the average period of resistance was

thirty-three days. The Germans used siege artillery in fourteen cases;

although only on two instances, Belfort and Strasburg, were formal

sieges undertaken. "It appears," writes Major Sydenham Clarke in his

recent remarkable work on Fortification [Footnote: _Fortification_. By

Major G. Sydenham Clarke, C.M. G. (London: John Murray).] which ought

to revolutionise that art, "that the average period of resistance of

the (nominally obsolete) French fortresses was the same as that of

besieged fortresses of the Marlborough and Peninsular periods.

Including Paris and Metz, the era of rifled weapons actually shows an

increase of 20 per cent in the time-endurance of permanent

fortifications. Granted that a mere measurement in days affords no

absolute standard of comparison, the striking fact remains that in

spite of every sort of disability the French fortresses, pitted against

guns that were not dreamed of when they were built, acquitted

themselves quite as well as the _chefs-d'oeuvre_ of the Vauban school

in the days of their glory." Even in the cases of fortresses whose

reduction was urgently needed since they interfered with the German

communications--such as Strasburg, Toul, and Soissons--the quick

_ultima ratio_ of assault was not resorted to by the Germans. And yet

the Germans could not have failed to recognise that but for the

fortresses they would have swept France clear of all organised bodies

of troops within two months of the frontier battles. During the

Peninsular War Wellington made twelve assaults on breached fortresses

of which five were successful; of his twelve attempts to escalade six

succeeded. The Germans in 1870-71 never attempted a breach and their

solitary effort at escalade, on the Basse Perche of Belfort, utterly

failed.

The Russians in 1877 were even less enterprising than had been the

Germans in 1870. They went against three permanently fortified places,

the antediluvian little Matchin which if I remember right blew itself

up; the crumbling Nicopolis which surrendered after one day's fighting;

and Rustchuk which held out till the end of the war. They would not

look at Silistria, ruined, but strong in heroic memories; they avoided

Rasgrad, Schumla, and the Black Sea fortresses; Sophia, Philippopolis,

and Adrianople made no resistance. The earthworks of Plevna, vicious as

they were in many characteristics, they found impregnable. I think

Suvaroff would have carried them; I am sure Skobeleff would if he had

got his way.

The vastly expensive armaments of the present--the rifled

breech-loader, the magazine rifle, the machine guns, the long-range

field-guns, and so forth, are all accepted and paid for by the

respective nations in the frank and naked expectation that these

weapons will perform increased execution on the enemy in war time. This

granted, nor can it be denied, it logically follows that if this

increased execution is not performed nations are entitled to regard it

as a grievance that they do not get blood for their money, and this

they certainly do not have; so that even in this sanguinary particular

the warfare of to-day is a comparative failure. The topic, however, is

rather a ghastly one and I refrain from citing evidence; which,

however, is easily accessible to any one who cares to seek it.

The anticipation is confidently adventured that a great revolution will

be made in warfare by the magazine rifle with its increased range, the

machine gun, and the quick-firing field artillery which will speedily

be introduced into every service. It does not seem likely that

smokeless powder will create any very important change, except in siege

operations. On the battlefield neither artillery nor infantry come into

action out of sight of the enemy. When either arm opens fire within

sight of the enemy its position can be almost invariably detected by

the field-glass, irrespective of the smokelessness or non-smokelessness

of its ammunition. Indeed, the use of smokeless powder would seem

inevitably to damage the fortunes of the attack. Under cover of a bank

of smoke the soldiers hurrying on to feed the fighting line are fairly

hidden from aimed hostile fire. It may be argued that their aim is thus

reciprocally hindered; but the reply is that their anxiety is not so

much to be shooting during their reinforcing advance as to get forward

into the fighting line, where the atmosphere is not so greatly

obscured. Smokeless powder will no doubt advantage the defence.

It need not be remarked that a battle is a physical impossibility while

both sides adhere to the passive defensive; and experience proves that

battles are rare in which both sides are committed to the active

offensive, whether by preference or necessity. Mars-la-Tour (16th

August 1870) was the only contest of this nature in the Franco-German

War. Bazaine had to be on the offensive because he was ordered to get

away towards Verdun; Alvensleben took it because it was the only means

whereby he could hinder Bazaine from accomplishing his purpose. But for

the most part one side in battle is on the offensive; the other on the

defensive. The invader is habitually the offensive person, just for the

reason that the native force commonly acts on the defensive; the latter

is anxious to hinder further penetration into the bowels of its land;

the former's desire is to effect that penetration. The defensive of the

native army need not, however, be the passive defensive; indeed, unless

the position be exceptionally strong that is according to present

tenets to be avoided. When, always with an underlying purpose of

defence, its chief resorts to the offensive for reasons that he regards

as good, his strategy or his tactics as the case may be, are expressed

by the term "defensive-offensive."

It says a good deal for the peaceful predilections of the nations, that

there has been no fairly balanced experience affording the material for

decision as to the relative advantage of the offensive and the

defensive under modern conditions. In 1866 the Prussians, opposing the

needle-gun to the Austrian muzzle-loader, naturally utilised this

pre-eminence by adopting uniformly the offensive and traditions of the

Great Frederick doubtless seconded the needle-gun. After Sadowa

controversy ran high as to the proper system of tactics when

breech-loader should oppose breech-loader. A strong party maintained

that "the defensive had now become so strong that true science lay in

forcing the adversary to attack. Let him come on, and then one might

fairly rely on victory." As Boguslawski observes--"This conception of

tactics would paralyse the offensive, for how can an army advance if it

has always to wait till an enemy attacks?" After much exercitation the

Germans determined to adhere to the offensive. In the recent modest

language of Baron von der Goltz: [Footnote: _The Nation in Arms_, by

Lieutenant-Colonel Baron von der Goltz. (Allen.)] "Our modern German

mode of battle aims at being entirely a final struggle, which we

conceive of as being inseparable from an unsparing offensive.

Temporising, waiting, and a calm defensive are very unsympathetic to

our nature. Everything with us is action. Our strength lies in great

decisions on the battlefield." Perhaps also the guileless Germans were

quite alert to the fact that Marshal Niel had shattered the French

army's tradition of the offensive, and gone counter to the French

soldier's nature by enjoining the defensive in the latest official

instructions. Had the Teutons suborned him the Marshal could not have

done them a better turn.

Their offensive tactics against an enemy unnaturally lashed to the

stake of the defensive stood the Germans in excellent stead in 1870. On

every occasion they resorted to the offensive against an enemy in the

field; strictly refraining, however, from that expedient when it was a

fortress and not soldiers _en vive force_ that stood in the way. At St.

Privat their offensive would probably have been worsted if Canrobert

had been reinforced or even if a supply of ammunition had reached him;

and a loss there of one-third of the combatants of the Guard Corps

without result caused them to change for the better the method of their

attack. But in every battle from Weissenburg to Sedan with the

exception of the confused _mêlée_ of Mars-la-Tour, the French, besides

being bewildered and discouraged, were in inferior strength; after

Sedan the French levies in the field were scarcely soldiers. There was

no fair testing of the relative advantages of defence and offence in

the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78; and so it remains that in an actual

and practical sense no firm decision has yet been established. All

civilised nations are, however, assiduously practising the methods of

the offensive.

It may nevertheless be anticipated that in future warfare between

evenly matched combatants the offensive will get the worst of it at the

hands of the defensive. The word "anticipate" is used in preference to

"apprehend," because one's sympathy is naturally for the invaded state

unless it has been wantonly aggressive and insolent. The invaded army,

if the term may be used, having familiar knowledge of the terrain will

take up a position in the fair-way of the invader; affording strong

flank _appui_ and a far-stretching clear range in front and on flanks.

It will throw up several lines, or still better, tiers of shallow

trenches along its front and flanks, with emplacements for artillery

and machine guns. The invader must attack; he cannot turn the enemy's

position and expose his communications to that enemy. He takes the

offensive, doing so, as is the received practice, in front and on a

flank. From the outset he will find the offensive a sterner ordeal than

in the Franco-German War days. He will have to break into loose order

at a greater distance, because of the longer range of small arms, and

the further scope, the greater accuracy, and the quicker fire of the

new artillery. He too possesses those weapons, but he cannot use them

with so great effect. His field batteries suffer from the hostile

cannon fire as they move forward to take up a position. His infantry

cannot fire on the run; when they drop after a rush the aim of panting

and breathless men cannot be of the best. And their target is fairly

protected and at least partially hidden. The defenders behind their low

épaulement do not pant; their marksmen only at first are allowed to

fire; these make things unpleasant for the massed gunners out yonder,

who share their attentions with the spraying-out infantry-men. The

quick-firing cannon of the defence are getting in their work

methodically. Neither its gunners nor its infantry need be nervous as

to expending ammunition freely since plenteous supplies are promptly

available, a convenience which does not infallibly come to either guns

or rifles of the attack. The Germans report as their experience in the

capacity of assailants that the rapidity and excitement of the advance,

the stir of strife, the turmoil, exhilarate the soldiers, and that

patriotism and fire-discipline in combination enforce a cool steady

maintenance of fire; that in view of the ominous spectacle of the swift

and confident advance, under torture of the storm of shell-fire and the

hail of bullets which they have to endure in immobility, the defenders,

previously shaken by the assailants' artillery preparation, become

nervous, waver, and finally break when the cheers of the final

concentrated rush strike on their ears. That this was scarcely true as

regarded French regulars the annals of every battle of the

Franco-German War up to and including Sedan conclusively show. It is

true, however, that the French nature is intolerant of inactivity and

in 1870 suffered under the deprivation of its _métier;_ but how often

the Germans recoiled from the shelter trenches of the Spicheren and

gave ground all along the line from St. Privat to the Bois de Vaux, men

who witnessed those desperate struggles cannot forget while they live.

Warriors of greater equanimity than the French soldier possesses might

perhaps stand on the defensive in calm self-confidence with simple

breech-loaders as their weapons, if simple breech-loaders were also

weapons of the assailants. But in his magazine rifle the soldier of the

future can keep the defensive not only with self-confidence, but with

high elation, for in it he will possess a weapon against which it seems

improbable that the attack (although armed too with a magazine or

repeating rifle) can prevail.

The assailants fall fast as their advance pushes forward, thinned down

by the rifle fire, the mitraille, and the shrapnel of the defence. But

they are gallant men and while life lasts they will not be denied. The

long bloody advance is all but over; the survivors of it who have

attained thus far are lying down getting their wind for the final

concentration and rush. Meanwhile, since after they once again stand up

they will use no more rifle fire till they have conquered or are

beaten, they are pouring forth against the defence their reserve of

bullets in or attached to their rifle-butts. The defenders take this

punishment, like Colonel Quagg, lying down, courting the protection of

their earth-bank. The hail of the assailants' bullets ceases; already

the artillery of the attack has desisted lest it should injure friend

as well as foe. The word runs along the line and the clumps of men

lying prostrate there out in the open. The officers spring to their

feet, wave their swords, and cheer loudly. The men are up in an

instant, and the swift rush focussing toward a point begins. The

distance to be traversed before the attackers are _aux prises_ with the

defenders is about one hundred and fifty yards.

It is no mere storm of missiles which meets fair in the face those

charging heroes; no, it is a moving wall of metal against which they

rush to their ruin. For the infantry of the defence are emptying their

magazines now at point-blank range. Emptied magazine yields to full

one; the Maxims are pumping, not bullets, but veritable streams of

death, with calm, devilish swiftness. The quick-firing guns are

spouting radiating torrents of case. The attackers are mown down as

corn falls, not before the sickle but the scythe. Not a man has

reached, or can reach, the little earth-bank behind which the defenders

keep their ground. The attack has failed; and failed from no lack of

valour, of methodised effort, of punctilious compliance with every

instruction; but simply because the defence--the defence of the future

in warfare--has been too strong for the attack. One will not occupy

space by recounting how in the very nick of time the staunch defence

flashes out into the counter-offensive; nor need one enlarge on the

sure results to the invader as the unassailed flank of the defence

throws forward the shoulder and takes in flank the dislocated masses of

aggressors.

One or two such experiences will definitively settle the point as to

the relative advantage of the offensive and the defensive. Soldiers

will not submit themselves to re-trial on re-trial of a _res judicata_.

Grant, dogged though he was, had to accept that lesson in the shambles

of Cold Harbour. For the bravest sane man will rather live than die. No

man burns to become cannon-fodder. The Turk, who is supposed to court

death in battle for religious reasons of a somewhat material kind, can

run away even when the alternative is immediate removal to a Paradise

of unlimited houris and copious sherbet. There are no braver men than

Russian soldiers; but going into action against the Turks tried their

nerves, not because they feared the Turks as antagonists, but because

they knew too well that a petty wound disabling from retreat meant not

alone death but unspeakable mutilation before that release.

It is obvious that if, as is here anticipated, the offensive proves

impossible in the battle of the future, an exaggerated phase of the

stalemate which Boguslawski so pathetically deprecates will occur. The

world need not greatly concern itself regarding this issue; the

situation will almost invariably be in favour of the invaded and will

probably present itself near his frontier line. He can afford to wait

until the invader tires of inaction and goes home.

Magazine and machine guns would seem to sound the knell of possible

employment of cavalry in battle. No matter how dislocated are the

infantry ridden at so long as they are not quite demoralised, however

_rusé_ the cavalry leader--however favourable to sudden unexpected

onslaught is the ground, the quick-firing arms of the future must

apparently stall off the most enterprising horsemen. Probably if the

writer were arguing the point with a German, the famous experiences of

von Bredow might be adduced in bar of this contention. In the combat of

Tobitschau in 1866 Bredow led his cuirassier regiment straight at three

Austrian batteries in action, captured the eighteen guns and everybody

and everything belonging to them, with the loss to himself of but ten

men and eight horses. It is true, says the honest official account,

that the ground favoured the charge and that the shells fired by the

usually skilled Austrian gunners flew high. But during the last 100

yards grape was substituted for shell, and Bredow deserved all the

credit he got. Still stronger against my argument was Bredow's

memorable work at Mars-la-Tour, when at the head of six squadrons he

charged across 1000 yards of open plain, rode over and through two

separate lines of French infantry, carried a line of cannon numbering

nine batteries, rode 1000 yards farther into the very heart of the

French army, and came back with a loss of not quite one half of his

strength. The _Todtenritt_, as the Germans call it, was a wonderful

exploit, a second Balaclava charge and a bloodier one; and there was

this distinction that it had a purpose and that that purpose was

achieved. For Bredow's charge in effect wrecked France. It arrested the

French advance which would else have swept Alvensleben aside; and to

its timely effect is traceable the sequence of events that ended in the

capitulation of Metz. The fact that although from the beginning of his

charge until he struck the front of the first French infantry line

Bredow took the rifle-fire of a whole French division yet did not lose

above fifty men, has been a notable weapon in the hands of those who

argue that good cavalry can charge home on unshaken infantry. But never

more will French infantry shoot from the hip as Lafont's conscripts at

Mars-la-Tour shot in the vague direction of Bredow's squadrons. French

cavalry never got within yards of German infantry even in loose order;

and the magazine or repeating rifle held reasonably straight will stop

the most thrusting cavalry that ever heard the "charge" sound.

Fortifications of the future will differ curiously from those of the

present. The latter, with their towering scarps, their massive

_enceintes_, their "portentous ditches," will remain as monuments of a

vicious system, except where, as in the cases of Vienna, Cologne,

Sedan, etc., the dwellers in the cities they encircle shall procure

their demolition for the sake of elbow-room, or until modern howitzer

shells or missiles charged with high explosives shall pulverise their

naked expanses of masonry. In the fortification of the future the

defender will no longer be "enclosed in the toils imposed by the

engineer" with the inevitable disabilities they entail, while the

besieger enjoys the advantage of free mobility. Plevna has killed the

castellated fortress. With free communications the full results

attainable by fortress artillery intelligently used, will at length

come to be realised. Unless in rare cases and for exceptional reasons

towns will gradually cease to be fortified even by an encirclement of

detached forts. Where the latter are availed of, practical experience

will infallibly condemn the expensive and complex cupola-surmounted

construction of which General Brialmont is the champion. "A work,"

trenchantly argues Major Sydenham Clarke, "designed on the principles

of the Roman catacombs is suited only for the dead, in a literal or in

a military sense. The vast system of subterranean chambers and passages

is capable of entombing a brigade, but denies all necessary tactical

freedom of action to a battalion."

The fortress of the future will probably be in the nature of an

intrenched camp. The interior of the position will provide casemate

accommodation for an army of considerable strength. Its defences will

consist of a circle at intervals of about 2500 yards, of permanent

redoubts which shall be invisible at moderate ranges for infantry and

machine guns, the garrison of each redoubt to consist of a half

battalion. Such a work was in 1886 constructed at Chatham in thirty-one

working days, to hold a garrison of 200 men housed in casemates built

in concrete, for less than £3000, and experiments proved that it would

require a "prohibitory expenditure" of ammunition to cause it serious

damage by artillery fire. The supporting defensive armament will

consist of a powerful artillery rendered mobile by means of tram-roads,

this defence supplemented by a field force carrying on outpost duties

and manning field works guarding the intervals between the redoubts.

Advanced defences and exterior obstacles of as formidable a character

as possible will be the complement of what in effect will be an

immensely elaborated Plevna, which, properly armed and fully organised,

will "fulfil all the requirements of defence" while possessing

important potentialities of offence.

An illustration is pertinent of the pre-eminent utility of such

fortified and strongly held positions, of whose characteristics the

above is the merest outline. In the event of a future Franco-German

War, the immensely expensive cordon of fortresses with which the French

have lined their frontier, efficiently equipped, duly garrisoned and

well commanded, will unquestionably present a serious obstacle to the

invading armies. The Germans talk of _vive force_--shell heavily and

then storm; the latter resort one for which they have in the past

displayed no predilection. Whether by storm or interpenetration, they

will probably break the cordon, but they cannot advance without masking

all the principal fortresses. This will employ a considerable portion

of their strength, and the invasion will proceed in less force, which

will be an advantage to the defenders. But if instead of those

multitudinous fortresses the French had constructed, say, three such

intrenched-camp fortresses as have been sketched, each quartering

50,000 men, it would appear that they would have done better for

themselves at far less cost. Each intrenched position containing a

field army 50,000 strong would engross a beleaguering host of 100,000

men. The positions of the type outlined are claimed to be impregnable;

they could contain supplies and munitions for at least a year,

detaining around them for that period 300,000 of the enemy. No European

power except Russia has soldiers enough to spare so long such a mass of

troops standing fast, and simultaneously to prosecute the invasion of a

first-rate power with approximately equal numbers. France at the cost

of 150,000 men would be holding supine on her frontier double the

number of Germans--surely no disadvantageous transaction.

In conclusion, it may be worth while to point out that the current

impression that the maintenance by states of "bloated armaments" is a

keen incentive to war, is fallacious. How often do we hear, "There must

be a big war soon; the powers cannot long stand the cost of standing

looking at each other, all armed to the teeth!" War is infinitely more

costly than the costliest preparedness. But this is not all. The

country gentleman for once in a way brings his family to town for the

season, pledging himself privily to strict economy when the term of

dissipation ends, in order to restore the balance. But for a State, as

the sequel to a season of war there is no such potentiality of economy.

Rather there is the grim certainty of heavier and yet heavier

expenditure after the war, in the still obligatory character of the

armed man keeping his house. Therefore it is that potentates are

reluctant to draw the sword, and rather bear the ills they have than

fly to other evils inevitably worse still. Whether the final outcome

will be universal national bankruptcy or the millennium, is a problem

as yet insoluble.

Camps, Quarters, and Casual Places · 第 54 / 61 题