CONFIDENCE IN HUMAN PRUDENCE SHAKEN.
Some things that were said by the minister, came back to the mind of
Mr. Townsend, and slightly disturbed it. The possibility that there
might be truth in what he had said, was suggested to his thoughts, and
he felt fretted at the idea of any Providential interference with his
worldly prosperity. He wished to be let alone; and even went so far as
to say, mentally, that he considered himself perfectly competent to
manage his own affairs. But this state did not remain long. Possession,
with him, was nine points of the law, and he meant to retain his
advantage.
It happened, not long after, that an arrival from the Pacific brought
Mr. Townsend letters from the supercargo of one of his vessels,
announcing the loss, in a terrible storm, of a fine ship laden with a
return cargo of specie and hides, valued at thirty thousand dollars.
She had only been out of Callao two days when the disaster took place.
The loss of both ship and cargo, it was feared, would be total.
“By the ships ‘Gelnare’ and ‘Hyperion,’” said one of these letters,
“advices in respect to cargo, were sent.”
Unfortunately for Mr. Townsend, neither of these vessels had arrived,
and therefore no insurance had been made upon the cargo. They were
both telegraphed on the next day, but they came too late. Three weeks
elapsed without further intelligence, when the captain and supercargo
arrived, bringing news of the entire wreck of the vessel and loss of
the cargo.
Mr. Townsend loved money for its own sake, and, therefore, although
worth some two or three hundred thousand dollars, the loss of thirty
thousand was felt severely. It made him exceedingly unhappy, and by
the reaction of his state upon his family, disturbed the peaceful
atmosphere of home.
A month after the intelligence of this loss came, he received account
sales of ten thousand barrels of flour, shipped to Montevideo, where
very high prices had ruled in the market for some months. He expected
to make from five to ten thousand dollars by the shipment. But the
arrival of half a dozen ship loads of flour, simultaneously with his
own, had knocked down the price, and he lost by the adventure over
twelve thousand dollars. As a remittance, his consignees sent, in
part, a cargo of cocoa, upon which there was another loss; not of
much consequence in amount, but serious as to the effect produced upon
the merchant’s mind. Hitherto, almost every commercial enterprise had
been successful. All his previous losses did not amount to twenty
thousand dollars, and now, in the space of little over a month, he had
seen nearly fifty thousand dollars pass from his hands, without even
the opportunity of an effort to save it. And the worst of it was, he
could blame no one. The ship had been wrecked in a storm. Previously,
the supercargo had sent by the first vessel that sailed, after he had
determined upon the nature of his return cargo, all the information
necessary for purposes of insurance. But the winds and the waves had
retarded her progress until after the news of the wreck came. If
the loss had been the effects of clearly apparent human errors or
inefficiency, Mr. Townsend would have felt less disturbed about it;
for greater care on his own part, or a nicer discrimination in the
selection of his agents, would prevent a recurrence of like events
in future. But the satisfaction of mind such a reflection would have
produced, he was not permitted to have.
For months after this, nothing but ill-luck attended Mr. Townsend’s
shipping interests. After this, followed several losses through the
failure of old customers, whose solvency, not only he, but every one
else, considered undoubted. During a single year, his riches, to the
amount of over seventy thousand dollars, took to themselves wings and
flew away, beyond the reach of recovery.
In spite of every effort to put away from his mind the intruding
recollection of what Mr. Carlton had said about the nothingness of
human prudence, the prominent features of the conversation he had held
with the clergyman were continually forcing themselves upon him, and
impressing him with a sense of his own powerlessness never felt before.
From this time his trust in commerce became impaired. Hitherto he had
considered it the surest road to wealth, because it had borne him
safely on to prosperity. But now he hesitated and reconsidered the
matter over and over again, when proceeding to send out a ship, and
thought with doubt and anxiety about the result, after she had spread
her white sails to the breeze, and started on her voyage to distant
lands. This uncertain state of mind continued, until Mr. Townsend
began to think of some other mode of using his capital less likely
to be attended with loss. He had been raised in the counting-room
of a shipping merchant; had sailed ten voyages while a young man,
as supercargo, and was now, from twenty five years active devotion
to business, thoroughly conversant with every thing appertaining to
commerce with foreign countries. As a shipper he was at home. But
although, like other men of his class, he had a general and pretty
accurate notion of the operations of trade, he had no practical
knowledge of any branch but his own. A few years before, he had said
that any man who, after ten or twenty years successful devotion to
any business, was silly enough to change it for another, of which he
knew little or nothing, deserved to lose, as he stood ten chances to
one of losing all he had made. And yet, notwithstanding all this, in
the darkness and doubt that had come over his mind, Mr. Townsend had
serious thoughts of directing his capital into some other business.
This important crisis in the merchant’s affairs occurred during a
period when every thing was inflated, and speculation rife. In his
younger days he had made, in one season, by speculating in cotton,
twenty thousand dollars; and, on another occasion, ten thousand
dollars in a single day, by operating in flour. Fortunes were lost at
the time, but he had been wise enough to stop at the right moment.
Rumors of this one having made twenty or thirty thousand dollars, and
the other one fifty or one hundred thousand, in the course of a few
months, were floating through all the circles of trade, and inspiring
men who had never made a dollar in their lives, except in regular
trade, to stake their fortunes on little better than the turn of a
die. The whole commercial atmosphere was filled with the miasmata of
speculation, and all men who inhaled it became more or less infected
with the disease. Property, estimated for years at a certain price,
suddenly changed hands at an advance and again at, perhaps, double the
original price paid for it. Why it had become so much more valuable
all at once, nobody could clearly explain, although reasons for it
were given that appeared to be taken for granted as true. A lot of
ground that the owner would have taken a thousand dollars for, and been
glad to have got it, all at once became worth two or three thousand
dollars, and was sold for that sum; and, in the course of a month or
two, perhaps, was resold for five or six thousand, on the rumor of a
railroad terminus being about to be located in the neighborhood, or
some great change in the avenues of trade in progress that would make
it immensely valuable. Imaginary cities were bought and sold; and
railroad and canal stocks, while not even the lines of improvement they
pretended to represent had been surveyed, passed from hand to hand at
twenty, thirty, fifty, and sometimes a hundred per cent. above their
par value. Men stood looking on in wonder at this strange state of
affairs, or plunged in headlong to struggle for the wealth they coveted.
Nor were individuals permitted to remain the passive spectators of all
that was going on around them. Daily, and almost hourly, some one,
infected with the mania, would present himself, and urge, with such
eloquence and seeming fairness, a participation in the vast benefits
of some imposing scheme of profit, that to withstand his persuasions
was almost impossible. And these individuals were so generous, too.
They were not content to make fortunes themselves, but wanted every
body else to take a share of the golden harvests they were reaping.
If you had no cash to spare, that did not matter. Your credit was
good, and your note, as an acknowledgment of the purchase, and a
formulary of trade all that was wanted. To give a note of ten thousand
dollars, to-day, for a piece of property that there was a fair chance
of selling, in a fortnight, for twenty thousand, was, certainly, a
temptation. Of course you had to sell, if you did sell, as you bought,
for paper, not for cash. But that was nothing. Every body was getting
rich, and, therefore, everybody was safe. There was no risk in taking
a man’s note for ten or twenty thousand dollars, payable six or twelve
months hence, when he was known to be worth one, two, three, or four
hundred thousand.
Mr. Townsend had a neighbor whose name was Cleveland. This man called
in to see him at least once every day, to talk about schemes of profit,
and the chances of acquiring great wealth suddenly. He was also engaged
in shipping, and had made a good deal of money by fortunate adventures.
Recently he had sold one of his vessels and freighted the other, which
had enabled him to divert a considerable amount of capital into the
new channels of profit that had opened all around him. This Cleveland
was half owner of a western city, a map of which hung up in his
counting-room. The name of the city was “Eldorado.” As could be seen
by its position, relative to other parts of the State in which it was
situated, it was plain that “Eldorado” was destined to become, at no
very distant day, one of the most important places in the West. It was
situated on the bank of a rapid river, with a fall close by, affording
water-power for mills and manufactories to any extent. The country
around was healthy, and the lands were rich; and, moreover, a railroad,
now in process of erection, would pass through it from north to south,
and another from east to west. One of these roads started from the
lakes at the north, and was to terminate at the Ohio river. The other
started from, and terminated in, deep navigable rivers.
This “Eldorado” Mr. Cleveland said he looked upon as the most valuable
of all his interests. His half of the city cost him twenty thousand
dollars, and he had already sold lots enough to realize fifteen
thousand dollars and expected to sell enough to net him fifteen or
twenty more, and still have a little fortune safely locked up in
“Eldorado.”
Besides his western town interest, he was largely concerned in a
manufacturing company; owned shares in all sort of internal improvement
and banking corporations; and was, according to his own showing, making
money so fast that he could hardly count it as it came in. Some time
after, Mr. Townsend met with the loss of thirty thousand dollars by
the wreck of a vessel, upon the cargo of which no insurance had been
effected. Mr. Cleveland said to him:
“I’ve just made an operation from which I expect to realize fifty
thousand dollars before twelve months pass away.”
“Have you, indeed!” responded Townsend.
“Yes. I’ve bought up a majority of the stock of the Sandy Hill and
Dismal Lake Canal, at twenty per cent. below par.”
“I would’nt have it at fifty cents below par,” returned Townsend. “The
project is in itself impracticable, and will never be carried out. The
stock is not worth a dollar, intrinsically, and never will be.”
“There you are much mistaken,” replied Cleveland. “The survey has not
only been completed, but workmen are upon the lines, and now that I
have secured a control in the Board of Directors I mean to have the
work prosecuted with vigor. In two months I will have the stock up
to par, and in less than a year, as high as thirty per cent. above,
and not to be had easily, at that price. My shares cost a hundred
thousand dollars. When the price reaches thirty per cent. above par,
I will sell, and thus make fifty thousand dollars. After that, those
who own the canal may go on with it as they please. Won’t you take ten
or twenty thousand dollars worth of the stock? You will find it better
than the shipping interest?”
“No, thank you, Mr. Cleveland. I never meddle in matters of that kind.
Give me straight forward, legitimate trade; not uncertain speculation.
I have made my money by commerce, and will certainly not risk it in
fancy stocks or ideal cities. I have no taste for your ‘Eldorados’ and
‘Dismal Lake Canals!’ The one will turn your gold to dross, and the
other will bury it from your sight in its turbid waters.”
“Don’t believe the half of it, Mr. Townsend. Before two years have
passed away, I’ll show you a cool hundred thousand or two that I have
made by these and one or two other schemes I have in my head.”
“If you don’t find yourself a ruined man you may be thankful. As to
your canal stock, even its par value will be a fictitious one, for,
if the works were completed, they never would pay an interest on the
investment. How much more fictitious, then, will be the value at
thirty per cent. above par. Whoever buys at such a price will ruin
himself.”
“I don’t know how that may be. But I do know, that if I can sell the
stock that cost me only eighty, for a dollar thirty, I shall make just
fifty thousand dollars.”
“Yes, _if_; but you are not going to find fools enough in the world to
buy a hundred and fifty thousand dollars worth of fancy stock at that
price.”
“Don’t you believe it. I know what has been done, and I know what can
be done. There are stocks in the market, not half so promising as this,
up, already, to fifteen and twenty per cent. above par.”
“Well, from all such uncertain schemes, I hope to be kept free, Mr.
Cleveland. Much more, I am satisfied, will be lost than gained, in the
end.”
“I shall take good care to be a gainer,” said Cleveland. “Trust me for
that.”
“Gain or loss, I am not to be tempted into the danger of losing what I
have made in honest trade, by the hope of great returns from doubtful
schemes,” replied Townsend, in a very positive way, and thus closed the
matter for the present.