THE AUXILIARY ELEMENTS OF INDUCTION.
OBSERVATION――EXPERIMENT――HYPOTHESIS.
=1. THE FOUNDATION OF INDUCTIVE GENERALIZATIONS.=
Induction is the process of universalizing particular facts. _The
starting point is the fact._ Through observation the investigator
gathers _facts_, and then works them over with a view of finding
_uniformities_. The mind cannot build inductive generalizations without
facts any more than a mason can build a brick wall without the bricks.
A fact is any particular thing _made_ or _done_ or is that which may
be acquired by means of the presentative (perception and imagination)
powers of the mind. The state of awareness which results from the
observation of facts is an individual notion. This presents another
aspect of the inductive process; namely, “It is a matter of building
general notions from individual notions, acquired by the observation
of facts.” To illustrate: I note that A, B, C and D are honest in their
dealings with me, hence I come to the conclusion that some men are
honest. A fact is something done, consequently the actual doing of the
honest things by A, B, C and D are facts. Each state of awareness of
each fact is an individual notion. The mind now discerns a uniformity
in these facts and derives the general notion that “some men are
honest.”
=2. OBSERVATION.=
Facts are acquired by means of observation. When the mind fixes the
attention upon any phenomenon it _observes_ it. The term observation
means “to watch for” and may be defined _as the act of watching for
phenomena as they may occur_. The observation may be only casual,
or it may be _willed_ or rational. It is the latter aspect which
most concerns the logician. In this sense observation means careful,
painstaking, systematic perception. It involves the concentration of
consciousness upon the case in hand, or the actual giving of attention.
The thing observed may be external, when the observation takes the
form of _sense-perception_; or it may be internal, when the observation
becomes a matter of _introspection_.
=3. EXPERIMENT.=
In observation we simply _watch_ the phenomenon; in experiment we
_make_ it. In experiment we not only observe, but we _manipulate_ the
circumstances so as to present the phenomenon under the most favorable
conditions for observation. “In observation,” says Mill, “we _find_ an
instance in nature suited to our purposes”; whilst in experiment, by an
artificial arrangement of circumstances, we _make_ an instance suited
to our purpose. In observation we watch for causes; in experiment we
work for effects. We may thus define experiment as _the act of making
phenomena occur for the purpose of watching for effects_. In experiment
there is much which is merely observation. In fact experiment _is_
observation in which the phenomenon is artificially produced. For
the sake of definiteness, however, any observation which involves a
_manipulation of circumstances_, may be designated as _experimental_.
=4. RULES FOR LOGICAL OBSERVATION AND EXPERIMENT.=
To the uninitiated, the matter of observation seems an easy task, and
yet when one hears two honest men swear to diametrically opposite facts
which have come to them from observing the same phenomenon, his faith
is shaken. “Eyes have they but see not” is a logical truth as well as
a moral one. Only the observation of the trained can be depended upon;
and yet this should not discourage the layman, for even he, by a little
conscientious effort towards careful observation, may greatly increase
his store of accurate knowledge and add to the joy of living.
The attending rules are usually heeded by the trained scientist in
matters of observation and experiment:
_First Rule. The observations should be precise._ The time, the place,
the surrounding conditions _must_ be accurately noted. Many artificial
contrivances have been devised because of the desire of the scientist
to be precise. Instruments like the balance, the thermometer, the
microscope, etc., has he invented, and various devices and methods
has he adopted for the sake of _precision_. A common method is to take
an _average of observations_. For example, to estimate justly the
class work of a student, the teacher should not be content with the
ratings of one or two recitations, but must average the ratings of many
recitations. Again, a child may be led to discover approximately the
value of the sum of the interior angles of a triangle by measuring the
angles of many triangles and then striking an average; assume that the
following results are obtained by such a procedure: (1) 178, (2) 181,
(3) 179, (4) 180, (5) 182; adding these and dividing by 5 gives 180.
_Second Rule. The observations should concern only the material
circumstances of the case in hand._ All the non essentials may be
ignored, as they serve only to distract attention. For example, (1) in
order to get the “right count” all other sounds must be ignored save
that of the _fire gong_; (2) in finding the depth of the water for the
building of a dam, soundings ten miles away from the objective point
could be of little value. On the other hand, it is easy to overlook
certain lurking essentials. To observe such, it is necessary to resort
to what the psychologist terms a “_preadjustment of attention_.” We
must know with exactness what we are looking for. We must have a mental
image of what we wish to see. The astronomer in the discovery of a
new planet must know the exact spot where it ought to be, and have
a clear mental image of its appearance. This _expectant attention_
is a necessity in the case of the physician who is anxious to make no
mistakes in his diagnosis. If he is looking for pneumonia, he must have
a very distinct auditory image of the sound of an affected lung. It
should be remarked, however, that this very preadjustment of attention,
with the untrained, frequently leads to illusion. We are so anxious to
see what we are looking for that nine-tenths of what we believe we see
is only inference. How easy it is to read into a phenomenon something
that is entirely foreign to it; to read between the lines; to see only
the reflection of our own ideas. “Verily the mental picture of what we
wish to see becomes so vivid that we are positive of the thing being
external.” Thus the drunkard sees snakes and the superstitious see
ghosts. _Reading into the external what is only vividly internal is
probably the most common error with the untrained observer._
_Third Rule. The observed circumstances should be varied as much as
possible._ To observe a fact from a different viewpoint may not only
broaden the original notion, but it may change it entirely. In order to
gain a true notion of the effect of a particular nostrum on the human
organism, it becomes necessary to experiment with persons of different
ages, living under different environments, and inheriting different
constitutions. Those who are noted for pronouncing broad, safe and
sane judgments upon momentous questions are those who are “all-angled
observers.”
_Fourth Rule. The observed phenomenon should, if possible, be isolated
from all interfering phenomena._
In studying the action of a drug or a food, all other drugs or foods
must be eliminated. The effect of gravitation on a body cannot be
recorded accurately unless the experiments are made in a vacuum. When
studying the deflections of the compass, all magnetic substances must
be removed from the field.
=5. COMMON ERRORS OF OBSERVATION AND EXPERIMENT.=
The rules for scientific observation have suggested certain common
errors which may now be considered.
(1) Preconceived ideas.
There is not an unholy belief nor an unwholesome theory which cannot be
bolstered up by means of apparent facts. For example, that monstrosity
of Puritan thought known as “Salem Witchcraft” was substantiated by
facts honestly observed. Again, having made up his mind that it is
going to be “so and so,” the statistician goes out into the highways
and byways and gathers the facts which vindicate his judgment. Further,
the democrat finds that the _majority_ of the voters are democrats;
while the republican is confident that _two-thirds_ of the voters
are for republicanism. Here again is the fallacy springing from
a preadjustment of attention. _We see what we want to see._ Only
the highly trained observer is able, with impunity, to make use of
preadjusted attention, and even with him, it is not easy to remove
from the situation _belief_ and _prejudice_.
The true observer undertakes his work with his mind open to _anything_
which the eye may bring him, though it may topple into the dust his
dearest theory and most cherished belief; he proceeds――_the mind a
“clean white page.”_
(2) The “observed” and the “inferred” confused.
This error has already received some attention. It may be remarked
further, however, that, psychologically considered, observation is a
matter of interpreting the new by means of the old. Of necessity the
interpretation, whatever it may be, will assume the complexion of the
particular “old knowledge” which the mind is able to use. In short, a
man _will_ see what his previous environment has _trained_ him to see;
the conscientious gardener sees the weeds, whilst the artist may see
nothing but the flowers. It follows, therefore, that all observation
must be largely a matter of inference based on experience. In looking
at the moon, for example, all I actually see is a patch of color; the
form and distant location of the moon being a matter of experience.
The inference referred to in this heading is not that which is
_necessary_ for perception, but that which is _suggested_ by perception.
To illustrate: It is icy; three men are running for a car; Smith raises
his arm; Jones slips to the ground; and Brown testifies, that “Smith
knocked Jones down.” Brown _observed_, that Smith assumed the proper
attitude and that Jones conveniently went down at the right time; and
then _inferred_ the rest.
(3) Ignoring the exceptions.
This comes through an over anxiety to prove our theory. With this
mental attitude, the observations which are corroborative will so
completely fill the mental field, that the exceptions are made to
seem of no consequence. This accounts for the superstition attached
to _thirteen_. As a coincidence some one at some time died who had
previously eaten at a table where there were thirteen. Perhaps during
the life of the superstitious one this happened on two or three
occasions, but the fact so impresses the subject that he ignores
the _dozen_ times when death did not follow. Other generalizations
belonging to this class are (1) people never die at flood tide;
(2) there must be three accidents in succession; (3) the first sight
of the new moon over the right shoulder is a good omen; (4) seeds which
grow to root do best when planted during the last days of the waxing
moon; (5) horse chestnut in pocket guards against sore throat, etc.
(4) Sympathy and undue interest.
The influence of the heart over the brain is well known. A physician
is liable to this error when he attempts to prescribe for one of his
own family. Sympathy not only warps the judgment but it may actually
interfere with the accuracy of an honest observer’s perceptive powers.
(5) Inattention and a fallible memory.
These short comings are too apparent to demand discussion.
=6. THE HYPOTHESIS.=
Having observed the facts, the mind naturally seeks for explanation
of the same. Hence taking the facts as a cue and bringing into play a
constructive imagination, a plausible supposition is advanced, which is
then proved or disproved. Such a supposition is known as an hypothesis.
Definition. _An hypothesis is a supposition advanced for purposes of
explanation and proof._
First illustration. The facts are known that light travels from the
sun to the earth, and at the rate of 186 thousand miles per second.
These facts suggest the problems: (1) How does the light reach the
earth? (2) Why this rate of speed; why so much faster than the rate at
which sound travels? To solve these problems, or to explain the facts,
the “ether” hypothesis is advanced: viz., “A rare medium called ether
pervades space and transmits the light and heat of the sun.” This
hypothesis has never been conclusively proved.
Second illustration. Fact: The child leans forward and squints his eyes,
when attempting to read work which has been placed on the black board;
hypothesis: The child is near sighted.
=7. INDUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS DISTINGUISHED.=
Induction is a matter of realizing generalizations from the observation
of facts. The product of such is an induction, but we know that an
hypothesis is likewise a generalization based upon facts. What is the
difference? An induction, as such, is a _broader_ term than hypothesis.
As soon as the hypothesis is proved or disproved, it ceases to be
an hypothesis, but still remains an induction. An hypothesis, being
advanced for purposes of explanation ceases to be an hypothesis
when, in the last analysis, it fails to explain. Moreover, as soon as
the hypothesis is shown to be an undoubted truth, it also loses its
distinctive hypothetic marks. _An hypothesis is merely a tentative
induction._
ILLUSTRATIONS:
(1) The hypothesis is advanced that the fire started from the coal
range in the kitchen. After the incendiary is caught, this supposition
ceases to be an hypothesis.
(2) It is suspected, that my insomnia is due to the three cups
of strong coffee indulged in at the evening meal. As soon as this
supposition is proved by experimental means (law of difference), it
ceases to be an hypothesis and becomes an unpopular inductive truth.
=8. HYPOTHESIS AND THEORY.=
In common parlance hypothesis and theory are used interchangeably.
We refer to the “nebular hypothesis” or the “nebular theory”; to the
“hypothesis of the sun’s heat” or “the theory of the sun’s heat.” On
the other hand, we say “the theory of gravitation,” “the theory of
evolution,” etc., with certain uniformity. From these observations we
may infer that hypothesis and theory may be used interchangeably when
the facts are of a _low probability_; but when the facts have undergone
_cogent verification_, it is more correct to use theory in their
designation rather than hypothesis. “_A theory is a partially
verified hypothesis._” It has been remarked that theory has a second
signification of being a term which stands for “any body of acquired
truth.” It is unfortunate that its use could not be confined to this
latter conception.
=9. THE REQUIREMENTS OF A PERMISSIBLE HYPOTHESIS.=
Any hypothesis should be made to conform to the following
requisites: (1) _The hypothesis must be conceivable._ The hypothetic
generalizations of primeval days were mere fancy. For example, the
loud noise from the clouds on dark days was the angry voice of the
God of the skies. Even in this day when a complex situation cannot
be explained there comes the temptation to draw entirely upon the
imagination, and advance an hypothesis which is absurd in every sense
of the word. The permissible hypothesis demands that there be some
ground for the conjecture. A fact or two at least must be used as the
foundation for whatever the constructive imagination may build. On
the other hand the past has taught us that we cannot afford to be too
exacting in the enforcement of this rule. The ideas of Copernicus,
Newton, Harvey, Darwin, and many another of the world’s best thinkers,
were looked upon at first as being ridiculous. There is always a bare
possibility of a “lurking truth” in the conjecture, _and no broad
minded and sanely educated man can afford to scoff blindly at something
which may seem to him mere fancy_. Prejudice and a willful blindness to
truth, have ever been imminent stumbling blocks in the path of progress.
(2) _The hypothesis must be capable of proof or disproof._ This
means, that where it is possible the hypothesis should touch, in one
form or another, our experience. If the hypothesis is wholly unlike
any experience we may have had, it becomes _impossible_ to ascertain,
whether it agrees or disagrees with the facts, which it is supposed
to explain. A legitimate hypothesis must furnish some opportunity
for securing facts to prove or disprove it. For example, to advance
an hypothesis relative to the conditions of the next world is hardly
permissible, as “spirit-facts” are entirely without our field of
experience. Surely, one returning from Heaven could give us no
conception of it; because there is nothing in the carnal mind that
may be used to interpret the experiences that must function in the
Celestial City.
(3) _The hypothesis must be adequate._ It should take into
consideration all the known facts. It stands to reason that, if _one_
known fact is ignored, the entire procedure is thus vitiated. It would
be absurd to suppose the moon to be inhabited without giving heed to
the fact of its having no atmosphere.
(4) _The hypothesis must be as simple as possible._ We must, of
course, recognize situations which in themselves are too complex to
admit of simple conjectures. The purport of the fourth rule is, that
the hypothesis should not be made _unnecessarily_ complex.
(5) _The hypothesis should not contradict any verified truth._ Any
conjecture which opposed the law of gravitation would be out of place.
Of course it is possible to have only apparent conflicts between the
new hypothesis and the old law. Further observation should show that
no such clash exists.
=10. THE USES OF HYPOTHESES.=
The hypothesis is serviceable mainly in these particulars:
(1) As a working basis.
When one is confronted with a huge mass of facts it becomes necessary
to start somewhere, and with as little waste of time and energy as
possible. Almost anything is better than a haphazard floundering which
reaches “nowhere.” So the investigator _hazards_ a tentative theory,
which he at once proceeds to verify. If verification fails, then he may
discard this first hypothesis for a better one.
(2) As a guide to ultimate truth.
Much might be said relative to the use of rejected hypotheses. By
means of these, science has advanced step by step towards the full
light of perfect knowledge. As has been remarked, no true scientist
cares to overlook the opportunity for suggestive inspiration which
some forsaken hypothesis may afford him. Just as the individual attains
the best success by _using his failures as stepping stones_, so the
true scientific discoverer _climbs up to the light on the stairway of
discarded hypotheses_. By testing and rejecting the false hypotheses,
the situation becomes more definite and the problem more accurately
defined. “Kepler himself tried no less than nineteen different
hypotheses before he hit upon the right one, and his ultimate success
was doubtless in no slight degree due to his unsuccessful efforts.”
(3) As a discoverer of immediate truth.
Often, moreover, the hypothesis leads directly to positive verification.
The supposition advanced may hit the truth squarely; and may be of such
peculiar nature as to lead easily to clear and conclusive proof.
(4) As affording a probable explanation of a problem which will not
lend itself to an entirely satisfactory solution.
The theory of evolution may illustrate this fourth use; while the
history of the discovery of Neptune illustrates the third.
=11. CHARACTERISTICS NEEDED BY SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATORS.=
The hypothesis is referred to “as the great instrument of science.” The
greatest thinkers of time have possessed the courage and the conscience
to step from the known to the unknown; to hazard a guess as to the
meaning of what they saw, and then subject their guess to a rigorous
test. This procedure involves three elements on the part of the
investigator: (1) Power of accurate observation. (2) Constructive
imagination. (3) A passion for truth.
(1) An hypothesis formed without an accurate knowledge of facts
is not only useless, but often it may work positive harm. To
advance serviceable suppositions which are not grounded on fact,
is as impossible, as it is to build a house without a foundation.
The hypothesis is an image of the constructive imagination, but
the pedestal of this image must rest on the ground of fact. The
investigator who would be scientific must exercise scrupulous care in
securing his facts through observation and experiment. The rules and
errors involved in such a procedure have received sufficient attention.
(2) After the investigator has his facts to build upon; and these may
be few or many――sometimes even a single fact is sufficient――then may he
theorize as to a possible explanation of them. Here is where the real
work of the born genius tells. To some the facts are nothing but words,
to others they mean universal laws and great inventions. Who but a
Newton could have seen the law of gravitation in the falling apple?
Who but an Edison could have seen the phonograph in the sound wave and
wax? It must be recognized that this remarkable imaginative insight is
inborn in some cases; and yet this does not preclude the necessity for
_cultivating_ this power, though it may be only in a rudimentary state.
Here is another opportunity for the school teacher; namely, to train in
every legitimate way the _constructive imagination_.
(3) Having once constructed the hypothesis, the honest scientific
investigator at once proceeds to subject it to a series of most
rigorous tests. It is well to see big things in a little fact; to
have a mind as fertile in new ideas as a watered garden――this is
genius! But is it not more incumbent to have a conscience so keen,
that nothing will be allowed to pass for truth which has not received
ample verification? Intellectual dishonesty is quite as common as moral
dishonesty. Moreover, one must maintain an _open mind, absolute candor,
and a willingness to abandon the most cherished theory_. Often it is
much easier to _explain away_ contradictory facts than it is to forsake
a _pet theory_.
=12. OUTLINE.=
THE AUXILIARY ELEMENTS IN INDUCTION――OBSERVATION――EXPERIMENT――
HYPOTHESIS.
(1) The Foundation of Inductive Generalizations.
(2) Observation. Defined.
(3) Experiment. Defined.
Compared with Observation.
(4) Rules for Logical Observation and Experiment.
Their need.
First Rule.
Second Rule.
Third Rule.
Fourth Rule.
(5) Common Errors of Observation and Experiment.
(1) Preconceived Ideas.
(2) Confusing the Observed with the Inferred.
(3) Ignoring the Exceptions.
(4) Sympathy and Undue Interest.
(5) Inattention and a Fallible Memory.
(6) The Hypothesis.
Defined and Illustrated.
(7) Induction and Hypothesis Distinguished.
(8) Hypothesis and Theory Distinguished.
(9) The Requirements of a Permissible Hypothesis.
(1) Conceivable,
(2) Capable of proof or disproof,
(3) Adequate,
(4) Simple,
(5) Not contradictory.
(10) Uses of Hypothesis.
(1) A working basis,
(2) Guide to ultimate truth,
(3) Discoverer of immediate truth,
(4) Probable explanation.
(11) Characteristics Required by Scientific Investigators.
(1) Accurate observer,
(2) Constructive imagination,
(3) Passion for truth.
=13. SUMMARY.=
(1) Facts are the foundation of all inductive generalizations.
Induction is largely a matter of building general notions from
individual notions derived from the observation of facts.
(2) Observation is the act of watching the phenomena as they may occur.
It involves the voluntary concentration of consciousness on the case in
hand.
(3) Experiment is the act of making phenomena occur for the purpose
of watching for effects. It is in reality a form of observation which
necessitates a manipulation of circumstances.
(4) The average man is not given to careful observation. The rules
adopted by scientific observers are: (1) The observation should
be _precise_; (2) should concern only the material circumstances;
(3) should be varied; (4) should be isolated.
For the sake of _precision_ many instruments have been invented and
methods devised; notably instruments for accurate measurements, such as
the balance and thermometer, and methods like the method of averages.
Frequently a situation may be so complicated as to demand a
“preadjustment of attention.” With the untrained this very
preadjustment may lead to serious error.
An “all-angled observer” is the most trustworthy.
(5) Errors in observation come from preconceived ideas; confusing
perception with inference; ignoring the exceptions; sympathy;
inattention; and a fallible memory.
(6) An hypothesis is a supposition advanced for purposes of explanation
and proof.
(7) An hypothesis is a tentative induction. As soon as it is deprived
of its tentative nature it ceases to be an hypothesis.
(8) Hypothesis and theory are often used interchangeably when reference
is made to phenomena of low probability. Theory should be used only in
instances of high probability.
(9) A permissible hypothesis must be (1) conceivable; (2) capable of
proof or disproof; (3) adequate; (4) simple; (5) must not contradict
any verified truth.
(10) The hypothesis is especially serviceable in these four particulars:
(1) as a working basis; (2) as a guide to ultimate truth; (3) as a
discoverer of immediate truth; (4) as affording probable explanations.
(11) There are certain characteristics which an honest and courageous
investigator needs to possess. These are: (1) undoubted ability as
an accurate observer of facts, (2) a constructive imagination, (3) a
passion for truth.
To build an acceptable hypothesis without fact is as impossible as it
is to build a house without a foundation.
The genius, because of his imaginative insight, transforms the simple
fact into a complex invention or law.
A prevailing “_intellectual dishonesty_” suggests the need of “_a
greater passion for truth_.”
=14. REVIEW QUESTIONS.=
(1) Show that facts are the raw material of induction.
(2) Define and illustrate a fact.
(3) Define induction in terms of the notion.
(4) Define and illustrate observation.
(5) Define and illustrate experiment.
(6) Show the difference between observation and experiment.
(7) State and exemplify the rules for logical observation and
experiment.
(8) Illustrate the method of averaging observations.
(9) Explain “preadjustment of attention.”
(10) What is the most common error with the untrained observer?
Explain and illustrate.
(11) Explain the expression “all-angled observer.”
(12) State and exemplify the errors of observation and experiment.
(13) To what error in observation are superstitions generally due?
(14) Define and illustrate hypothesis.
(15) Indicate the difference between an hypothesis and an ordinary
induction.
(16) When may theory and hypothesis be used interchangeably?
Illustrate.
(17) Show by illustration that the term theory is ambiguous.
(18) Summarize the requirements of a permissible hypothesis.
Illustrate.
(19) Select some school room experience with a view of making it
conform to the requirements of a permissible hypothesis.
(20) Explain and illustrate the uses of hypothesis.
(21) “The scientific discoverer climbs up to the light on the stairway
of discarded hypotheses.” Explain.
(22) Write a short theme on “Characteristics Required by Scientific
Investigators.”
=15. QUESTIONS FOR ORIGINAL THOUGHT AND INVESTIGATION.=
(1) “Land and sea breezes are due to a difference in temperature.”
Is this a fact or a law? Explain your position.
(2) Give three different definitions of induction. Which one have you
adopted? Defend your position.
(3) Define and illustrate observation.
(4) Distinguish between observation and attention.
(5) “In observation we _find_, in experiment we _make_.” What is
meant by this?
(6) Give illustrations of falsehood due to careless observation.
(7) Argue for and against the use of “expectant attention” in
observation.
(8) “Nine-tenths of what we see comes from within.” Do you believe
this? Labor the question.
(9) Offer suggestions which, if followed, should lead to scientific
observation.
(10) “One must be just before he is sympathetic.” Relate this to the
fine art of accurate observation.
(11) Is an hypothesis a generalization? Explain.
(12) Give school room examples of hypotheses which lead to injustice.
(13) “An hypothesis is merely a tentative induction.” Make clear this
assertion.
(14) Illustrate inconceivable hypotheses by drawing on your knowledge
of ancient history.
(15) “Prejudice and willful blindness to truth have ever been imminent
stumbling blocks in the path of progress.” Expatiate upon this.
(16) Are the hypotheses advanced concerning communications from the
spiritual world capable of proof or disproof? Give reasons.
(17) Show by historical examples the use of discarded hypotheses.
(18) “Genius is another name for hard work.” Do you agree? Defend your
position.
(19) “The man to whom nothing ever occurs is unlikely to make any
important discoveries.” Discuss this.