"In the middle of July, 1914, I had, as I frequently had, a conversation
with Dr. Helfferich, then Director of the Deutsche Bank in Berlin, and
now Vice Chancellor. The Deutsche Bank had adopted a negative attitude
toward certain large transactions in Bulgaria and Turkey, in which the
firm of Krupp, for business reasons--delivery of war material--had a
lively interest. As one of the reasons to justify the attitude of the
Deutsche Bank, Dr. Helfferich finally gave me the following reason:
"The political situation has become very menacing. The Deutsche
Bank must in any case wait before entering into any further
engagements abroad. The Austrians have just been with the
Kaiser. In a week's time Vienna will send a very severe
ultimatum to Serbia, with a very short interval for the answer.
The ultimatum will contain demands such as punishment of a
number of officers, dissolution of political associations,
criminal investigation in Serbia by Austrian officials, and, in
fact, a whole series of definite satisfactions will be demanded
at once; otherwise Austria-Hungary will declare war on Serbia.
"Dr. Helfferich added that the Kaiser had expressed his decided approval
of this procedure on the part of Austria-Hungary. He had said that he
regarded a conflict with Serbia as an internal affair between these two
countries, in which he would permit no other State to interfere. If
Russia mobilized, he would mobilize also. But in his case mobilization
meant immediate war. This time there would be no oscillation. Helfferich
said that the Austrians were extremely well satisfied at this determined
attitude on the part of the Kaiser.
"When I thereupon said to Dr. Helfferich that this uncanny communication
converted my fears of a world war, which were already strong, into
absolute certainty, he replied that it certainly looked like that. But
perhaps France and Russia would reconsider the matter. In any case, the
Serbs deserved a lesson which they would remember. This was the first
intimation that I had received about the Kaiser's discussions with our
allies. I knew Dr. Helfferich's particularly intimate relations with the
personages who were sure to be initiated, and I knew that his
communication was trustworthy.