Bulgaria's defeat in the second Balkan war and Serbia's victory, as well
as the Rumanian advance, naturally constituted a reproach to Austria.
The idea of equalizing this by military intervention in Serbia seems to
have gained ground rapidly in Vienna. This is proved by the Italian
disclosure, and it may be presumed that the Marquis di San Giuliano, who
described the plan as a "pericolossissima adventura," (an extremely
risky adventure,) saved us from a European war as far back as the Summer
of 1912. Intimate as Russo-Italian relations were, the aspiration of
Vienna must have been known in St. Petersburg. In any event, M. Take
Jonescu told me that M. Sazonoff had said in Constanza that an attack
on Serbia on the part of Austria meant war with Russia.
In the Spring of 1914 one of my Secretaries, on returning from leave in
Vienna, said that Herr von Tschirsohky (German Ambassador in Vienna) had
declared that war must soon come. But as I was always kept in the dark
regarding important things, I considered his pessimism unfounded.
Ever since the peace of Bucharest it seems to have been the opinion in
Vienna that the revision of this treaty should be undertaken
independently, and only a favorable opportunity was awaited. The
statesmen in Vienna and Bucharest could naturally count upon our
support. This they knew, for already they had been reproached several
times for their slackness. Berlin even insisted on the "rehabilitation"
of Austria.