THE NAVIES OF THE PACIFIC
The present year (1912) is not a good one for an estimate of the naval
forces of the Pacific. The Powers interested in the destiny of that
ocean have but recently awakened to a sense of the importance of speedy
naval preparation to avert, or to face with confidence, the struggle
that they deem to be impending. By 1915 the naval forces in the Pacific
will be vastly greater, and the opening of the Panama Canal will have
materially altered the land frontiers of the ocean. A statement of the
naval forces of to-day, to be useful, must be combined with a reasonable
forecast of their strength in 1915.
Following, for convenience' sake, geographical order, the Pacific Powers
have naval strength as follows:--
_Russia._--Russia is spending some £12,000,000 a year on her navy, and
is said to contemplate a force of sixteen "Dreadnoughts." Of these, four
are now in hand, but the date of their completion is uncertain. At
present Russia has no effective naval force in the Pacific, and but
little elsewhere. The "Dreadnoughts" building--which are of a
much-criticised type--are intended for use in European waters. The
naval force of Russia in the Pacific for the present and the near future
may be set down as negligible.
_Japan._--Japan has two battleships of the "Dreadnought" class, the
_Satsuma_ and the _Aki_, in actual commission. By the time that this
book is in print there should be two more in commission. They were
launched in November 1910. According to modern methods of computation,
a navy can be best judged by its "Dreadnought" strength, always
presuming that the subsidiary vessels of a Fleet unit--cruisers,
destroyers and submarines--are maintained in proper proportion of
strength. Japan's naval programme aims at a combination of fortress
ships ("Dreadnoughts"), speed ships (destroyers) and submarines, in
practically the same proportion as that ruling in the British navy. The
full programme, at first dated for completion in 1915, now in 1920,
provides for twenty modern battleships, twenty modern armoured
cruisers, one hundred destroyers, fifty submarines and various other
boats. But it is likely that financial need will prevent that programme
from being realised. For the current year the Japanese naval estimates
amount to £8,800,000. At present the Japanese navy includes some two
hundred ships, of which thirty-eight are practically useless. The
possibly useful Fleet comprises seventeen battleships and battleship
cruisers, nine armoured cruisers, fifty-seven destroyers, twelve
submarines, four torpedo gunboats and forty-nine torpedo boats.
The Japanese navy is by far the strongest force in the Pacific, and is
the only navy in the world with actual experience of up-to-date warfare,
though its experience, recent as it is, has not tested the value of the
"Dreadnought" type, which theoretically is the only effective type of
battleship.
_China._--At present China has twenty-six small boats in commission and
five building. Her biggest fighting ship is a protected cruiser carrying
six-inch guns. The naval strength of China is thus negligible.
_The United States._--The United States cannot be considered as a
serious Pacific naval Power until the Panama Canal has been
completed.[7] Then under certain circumstances the greater part of her
Fleet would be available for service in the Pacific. She spends some
£26,000,000 yearly on her navy. She has at present four "Dreadnoughts"
in commission, and by the time that this book is in print should have
six. Her building programme provides for two new "Dreadnoughts," and the
proper complement of smaller craft, each year.
In the last annual report on the United States navy (December 1911),
Secretary Meyer stated that a total of forty battleships, with a
proportional number of other fighting and auxiliary vessels, was the
least that would place the United States on a safe basis in its
relations with the other world Powers, and "while at least two other
Powers have more ambitious building plans, it is believed that if we
maintain an efficient Fleet of the size mentioned, we shall be secure
from attack, and our country will be free to work out its destiny in
peace and without hindrance. The history of all times, including the
present, shows the futility and danger of trusting to good-will and fair
dealing, or even to the most solemnly binding treaties between nations,
for the protection of a nation's sovereign rights and interests, and
without doubt the time is remote when a comparatively unarmed and
helpless nation may be reasonably safe from attack by ambitious
well-armed Powers, especially in a commercial age such as the present."
Battleships 36 and 37, at the time in course of construction, were, he
claimed, a distinct advance on any vessels in existence. These vessels
would be oil-burners, and would carry no coal. They were to be of about
the same size as the _Delaware_, but their machinery would weigh 3000
tons less, or a saving of 30 per cent., and the fire-room force would be
reduced by 50 per cent. Concluding his report, Mr. Meyer said: "The
Panama Canal is destined to become the most important strategical point
in the Western Hemisphere, and makes a Caribbean base absolutely
necessary. The best base is Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which Cuba has ceded
to the United States for naval purposes. This base will enable the
United States to control the Caribbean with all its lines of approach to
the canal, and, with a torpedo base at Key West, will render the Gulf of
Mexico immune from attack."
A new type of war machine, which is a combination of a submarine and a
torpedo boat, is now being prepared for use in the United States navy.
She is known as the "sub-surface torpedo boat." There is a submarine
hull with machinery and torpedo armaments, and a surface hull--said to
be unsinkable--divided into compartments. The whole vessel weighs six
tons, can be carried on the deck of a battleship, travels eighteen knots
an hour for a radius of two hundred miles, and needs a crew of two men.
She carries a thousand pounds of gun-cotton. The sub-surface boat may be
used as an ordinary torpedo boat, or she may be bodily directed at a
hostile ship after her crew of two have left. It is estimated that the
sub-surface boat will cost about £5000, all told, and it seems possible
that it will be a serious weapon of naval warfare.
_Great Britain._--Great Britain spent last year nearly £45,000,000 on
her navy, which is the supreme naval force of the world. But its weight
in a Pacific combat at present would be felt chiefly in regard to
keeping the ring clear. No European Power hostile to Great Britain could
send a Fleet into the Pacific. The United States could not despatch its
Atlantic Fleet for service in the Pacific without a foreknowledge of
benevolent neutrality on the part of Great Britain.
At the Imperial Defence Conference of 1909, it was decided to re-create
the British Pacific Fleet, which, after the alliance with Japan, had
been allowed to dwindle to insignificance. The future Pacific naval
strength of Great Britain may be set down, estimating most
conservatively, at a unit on the China station consisting of one
"Dreadnought" cruiser, three swift unarmoured cruisers, six destroyers
and three submarines. This would match the Australian unit of the same
strength. But it is probable that a far greater strength will shortly be
reached. It may be accepted as an axiom that the British--_i.e._ the
Home Country--Fleet in Pacific waters will be at least kept up to the
strength of the Australian unit. The future growth of that unit is
indicated in the report on naval defence presented to the Commonwealth
Government by Admiral Sir Reginald Henderson, a report which has been
accepted in substance.
He proposes a completed Fleet to be composed as follows:--
8 Armoured Cruisers,
10 Protected Cruisers,
18 Destroyers,
12 Submarines,
3 Depôt Ships for Flotillas,
1 Fleet Repair Ship,
--
52.
This Fleet would, when fully manned, require a personnel of
approximately 15,000 officers and men.
The Fleet to be divided into two divisions as follows:--
EASTERN DIVISION.
+---------------------------+--------------------------+
| | Number. |
| +-----------+-------+------+
| Class of Vessel. |In Full | With |Total.|
| |Commission.|Reduced| |
| | | Crew. | |
+---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
| | | | |
|Armoured cruiser | 3 | 1 | 4 |
|Protected cruiser | 3 | 2 | 5 |
|Torpedo-boat destroyer | 8 | 4 | 12 |
|Submarine | 3 | ... | 3 |
|Depôt ship for torpedo-boat| | | |
| destroyers | 2 | ... | 2 |
|Fleet repair ship | ... | ... | ... |
| +-----------+-------+------+
| Total | 19 | 7 | 26 |
+---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
| |
| WESTERN DIVISION. |
| |
+---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
|Armoured cruiser | 3 | 1 | 4 |
|Protected cruiser | 3 | 2 | 5 |
|Torpedo-boat destroyer | 4 | 2 | 6 |
|Submarine | 9 | ... | 9 |
|Depôt ship for torpedo-boat| | | |
| destroyers | 1 | ... | 1 |
|Fleet repair ship | 1 | ... | 1 |
| +-----------+-------+------+
| Total | 21 | 5 | 26 |
+---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
| Grand total of both | | | |
| divisions | 40 | 12 | 52 |
+---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
That would necessitate £3,000,000 a year expenditure for the first five
years, rising gradually to £5,000,000 a year. To this the Australian
Government is understood to be agreeable.
New Zealand does not propose to organise a naval force of her own, but
will assist the British Admiralty with a subsidy. That subsidy is to be
devoted to the use of the unit in China waters.
Canada's naval plans at present are not known. After the Imperial
Defence Conference of 1909 Sir Wilfrid Laurier found both his instincts
for frugality and for peace outraged by the forward policy favoured by
other of the Dominions. He decided to sacrifice the former and not the
latter, and embarked on a naval programme which, whilst it involved a
good deal of expenditure, made it fairly certain that no Canadian
warship would ever fire a shot in anger, since none would be completed
until she had become hopelessly obsolete. His successor in office has
stopped that naval programme. It is possible that the new administration
will decide that Canada should contribute in some effective form to
Imperial naval defence, and she may be responsible for a naval unit in
the Pacific.
_Latin America._--Brazil (whose interests, however, are in the Atlantic
rather than the Pacific) has two modern battleships of the "Dreadnought"
type, and one other building. Chili has at present no really modern
warship, but projects two "Dreadnoughts" and up-to-date small craft. The
existing Fleet consists of one battleship, two armoured cruisers, and
four protected cruisers. The Republic of Argentine has at present
several vessels practically obsolete, the most modern cruisers having
been built in 1896. There are three battleships, four armoured
cruisers, and three protected cruisers. A modern navy is projected with,
as a nucleus, two 25,000-ton battleships of twenty-two knots, armed with
twelve-inch guns. Mexico, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay,
Venezuela, have no useful Fleets.
The following table will give as accurate a forecast as possible of
naval strength in the Pacific in the immediate future:--
"DREADNOUGHT" TYPES IN 1912 AND 1915.
1912. 1915.
British Empire 20 38
Germany 11 21
United States 8 14
Japan 4 8
Brazil 3 4
Argentine Republic ... 2
Chili ... 2
_Note._--All the South American "Dreadnoughts" are open to some doubt,
though Brazil has three vessels of the type actually in the water.
Battleships and cruisers of the "Dreadnought" type are included in the
above table. It has been computed on the presumption that there will be
no change in the 1912 naval programmes. The United States, the British
Empire and Japan, are stronger in battleships of the pre-Dreadnought
period than is Germany. Russia is ignored, for she has no present
intention of restoring her Pacific naval Power. Germany is included
because of her future position as the second naval Power of the world,
and her possible appearance in the Pacific as the ally of one or other
of the Powers established there now.
The following additional table deals not merely with warships of the
"Dreadnought" type, but with the effective tonnage, _i.e._ the tonnage
of ships of all classes of the three greatest naval Powers:--
"EFFECTIVE TONNAGE" IN 1912 AND 1913-14.
1912. 1913-14.
British Empire 1,896,149 2,324,579
United States 757,711 885,066
Germany 749,699 1,087,399
FOOTNOTES:
[7] A "Reuter" telegram from Washington, dated March 17, stated:
"Significant orders have been issued by the Navy Department directing
three big armoured cruisers of the Pacific Fleet to proceed immediately
to the Philippines for an indefinite stay. Their arrival will make the
American Fleet in the Orient the most powerful there excepting the
Japanese. The vessels under order are the cruisers _California_, _South
Dakota_, and _Colorado_."